[TheClimate.Vote] July 21, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Jul 21 10:57:57 EDT 2020
/*July 21, 2020*/
[Wildfires]
*Hog Fire burns more than 5,000 acres west of Susanville, CA*
AuthorBill GabbertPosted onJuly 20,
2020CategoriesWildfireTagsCalifornia, Hog Fire
Mandatory evacuations are in effect
Much of the smoke from the Hog Fire west of Susanville, CA is remaining
in the general area.
Several of the AlertWildfire cameras near the Hog Fire west of
Susanville, California have little to no visibility due to smoke, but
the Dyer Mountain 1 cam further to the southwest has a good view of the
top of a pyrocumulus cloud generated by the fire.
The weather forecast for the next 24 hours indicates conditions
favorable to continued fire spread. The prediction for Monday afternoon
is for 95 degrees, relative humidity 13 percent, and winds out of the
northwest at 9 to 16 mph. Monday night the wind will continue to be out
of the northwest at 5 to 9 mph, the temperature will drop to 64 degrees
by sunrise, and there will be poor humidity recovery, rising during the
night only to 40 percent.
A Red Flag Warning is predicted for Tuesday when the forecast calls for
95 degrees, 13 percent RH, and 3 to 10 mph winds from the southeast in
the morning shifting to come from the southwest and west in the
afternoon. There is a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon...
The Hog Fire has prompted mandatory evacuations in northern California
west of Susanville. By Sunday night it had burned 5,800 acres of land
protected by the Lassen National Forest and the state of California. At
3:30 a.m. July 20 the fire was about one mile west of a housing
development on the west side of the William D. McIntosh Highway (A1) and
five miles west of Susanville. It has spread approximately 5 miles to
the east since it started and is on both sides of Highway 44. Steep
terrain and spot fires ahead of the main fire are complicating efforts
of firefighters.
Resources assigned Sunday night included 25 fire engines, 8 hand crews,
15 dozers, 15 water tenders, 4 helicopters, and 6 air tankers.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2020/07/20/hog-fire-burns-more-than-5000-acres-west-of-susanville-ca/
[Feedback loop]
*MELTING PERMAFROST LINKED TO IMPENDING ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER -- STUDY*
A phenomenon could add 40 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere by
the year 2100.
Scientists are worried about melting Arctic permafrost. When permanently
frozen ground turns out to be not so permanent, structures built on
permafrost can catastrophically collapse -- and the bizarre, ranging
from abandoned nuclear waste to anthrax, can be revealed.
Now, there's another issue to be concerned about: A massive release of
carbon dioxide.
In a natural effect called rhizosphere priming, the roots of plants
accelerate the rate of decomposition in soil microbes -- which, in turn,
releases carbon dioxide. It's no small feature: This effect can increase
decomposition fourfold. Still, current climate projections don't
explicitly account for rhizosphere priming.
In a new study, researchers did the math and determined that the
phenomenon could add 40 BILLION TONS of carbon to the atmosphere by the
year 2100. This finding was published Monday in the journal Nature
Geoscience.
That means humans need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more than
expected, say the study authors. Prior to this study, scientists
estimated that global emissions must fall by 7.6 percent every year over
the next 10 years to meet the 1.5C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
The effect of rhizosphere priming, the research team writes, is
"currently unaccounted for in global emission scenarios and implies that
the remaining anthropogenic carbon budget to keep warming below 1.5 or
2 C ... may need to be even more constrained."
Permafrost is vital to the world's climate because it stores twice as
much carbon as there is in the atmosphere. Under usual circumstances,
the top layer of the frozen soil thaws during summer, when plants and
microorganisms spring to life. The microbes munch on plant roots and
inevitably emit greenhouse gases since they have to respirate to live.
This effect creates a FEEDBACK LOOP: More melting soil means there are
more plant roots to feed hungry microbes, which warm the atmosphere
simply by existing.
The priming effect isn't new. Scientists have been aware of it since the
1950s. What they didn't know was how this micro-scale ecology would
contribute to global carbon emissions.
To figure that out, the researchers mapped plant and soil data across
permafrost ecosystems, discovering that priming alone can increase
respiration among soil microbes by 12 percent.
That translates to 40 billion tons of additional carbon that will be
released in the coming 80 years -- more than the amount the entire
planet releases each year.
"These new findings demonstrate how important it is to consider
small-scale ecological interactions, such as the priming effect, in
global greenhouse gas emission modeling," study co-author Birgit Wild,
an assistant professor at Stockholm University, explained in a statement.
*THE DANGER OF ARCTIC WARMING *-- While all of Earth is heating up,
warming is significantly worse in the Arctic.
The past decade was the hottest on record overall, suggests analyses by
NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In the
Arctic, air temperatures are rising twice as fast as the global average.
This new study shows that permafrost melt can, in turn, prompt further
melt: More carbon in the atmosphere means worsened atmospheric warming,
which means more melting.
We're already seeing this in action: In late June, a summer heatwave in
Siberia contributed to widespread wildfires on frozen land. The fires
released a record-breaking amount of carbon dioxide, with 18 million
hectares of forest burning up. Scientists warn these fires could lead to
more thawing of Arctic permafrost.
*Abstract:* As global temperatures continue to rise, a key
uncertainty of climate projections is the microbial decomposition of
vast organic carbon stocks in thawing permafrost soils.
Decomposition rates can accelerate up to fourfold in the presence of
plant roots, and this mechanism--termed the rhizosphere priming
effect--may be especially relevant to thawing permafrost soils as
rising temperatures also stimulate plant productivity in the Arctic.
However, priming is currently not explicitly included in any model
projections of future carbon losses from the permafrost area. Here,
we combine high-resolution spatial and depth-resolved datasets of
key plant and permafrost properties with empirical relationships of
priming effects from living plants on microbial respiration. We show
that rhizosphere priming amplifies overall soil respiration in
permafrost-affected ecosystems by ~12%, which translates to a
priming-induced absolute loss of ~40 Pg soil carbon from the
northern permafrost area by 2100. Our findings highlight the need to
include fine-scale ecological interactions in order to accurately
predict large-scale greenhouse gas emissions, and suggest even
tighter restrictions on the estimated 200 Pg anthropogenic carbon
emission budget to keep global warming below 1.5 C.
https://www.inverse.com/science/melting-permafrost-climate-crisis-study
[observe changes]
*Arctic Ocean is set for more turbulent future*
July 20th, 2020, by Tim Radford
*The Arctic Ocean is about to become more violent, with higher storm
waves and higher frequency, across a wide region.*
LONDON, 20 July, 2020 - The Arctic Ocean is changing, and changing fast.
By the century's end, the maximum height of storm waves in the polar
seas could have risen by twice or even three times the present height.
According to new research, wave heights could increase by two metres and
coastal floods could become four times, or even 10 times, as frequent.
And a separate study has found that even the character of the water in
the ocean is changing: warm salty water from the Atlantic is weakening
the ice cover at an accelerating rate, but providing more nutrients for
Arctic life, while extra river water from the Pacific has made the
American-Asian part of the Arctic Ocean less likely to mix, and less
biologically productive.
The Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the planet as a whole: the
ice cover has been thinning and retreating for decades. And temperatures
keep on rising.
One Siberian town recorded a temperature of 38C in June, and the region
has been hit by devastating forest fires.
*"In many respects, the Arctic Ocean now looks like a new ocean"*
And as the oceans warm, winds become more powerful and the ocean waves
respond, with prospects of ever-greater hazard for shipping and coastal
settlements.
Extreme wave events that once occurred in the Arctic at average
intervals of once every 20 years could by the end of the century happen
every two to five years, according a study in the Journal of Geophysical
Research: Oceans.
"It increases the risk of flooding and erosion. It increases drastically
almost everywhere", said Mercè Casas-Prat, a researcher with Environment
and Climate Change Canada. "This can have a direct impact on communities
that live close to the shoreline."
She and a colleague used computer simulations and a range of climate
predictions to work out what will happen to those ocean surfaces not
covered by ice as the seas warm in response to greenhouse gas emissions
from fossil fuel combustion.
They found that almost everywhere in the Arctic would experience greater
wave height. The hardest-hit would be the Greenland Sea, bounded by the
largest body of ice in the northern hemisphere, and the Svalbard
Archipelago.
*More salty water*
Maximum annual wave heights could increase by as much as six metres.
"At the end of the century, the maximum will on average come later in
the year and also be more extreme," Dr Casas-Prat said.
The Arctic Ocean covers only about 3% of the planet's surface, but it is
vulnerable to change in ocean regions much nearer the Equator. US and
Scandinavian scientists report in the journal Frontiers in Marine
Science that they looked at 37 years of direct observation and
measurement to find that not only are Arctic waters changing: they are
changing in different ways.
Flows of increasingly warm salty water from the Atlantic have begun to
mix at depth, weaken sea ice and bring deeper, nutrient-rich water to
the surface. At the other entrance to the partly landlocked expanse of
water, an increasing flow from rivers has begun to make the separation
of surface and deep layers even more pronounced.
This limits the movement of nutrients to the surface, potentially making
that part of the sea less biologically rich. Many marine creatures from
low latitudes are moving north, in some cases replacing local species.
The changes could affect fisheries, tourism, navigation and of course
the people who live in the Arctic.
"In many respects, the Arctic Ocean now looks like a new ocean," said
Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer at the University of Fairbanks, Alaska,
who led the research. - Climate News Network
https://climatenewsnetwork.net/arctic-ocean-is-set-for-more-turbulent-future/
- -- -
[AGU report]
*Projections of extreme ocean waves in the Arctic and potential
implications for coastal inundation and erosion*
Merce Casas‐Prat Xiaolan L. Wang
First published: 07 July 2020 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745
This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer
review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination
and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this
version and the Version of Record.
*abstract*
The Arctic Ocean wave climate is undergoing a dramatic change due to
the sea ice retreat. This study presents simulations of the Arctic
regional wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice
concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical
(1975‐‐2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081‐‐2100) periods. The
annual maximum significant wave height is projected to increase up
to 6 m offshore and up to 2‐3 times greater than the corresponding
1979‐‐2005 value along some coastlines, as waves become more exposed
to the fall storms there. The connection between the Atlantic Ocean
and the Arctic wave climates is projected to strengthen due to
increase of swell influence. Changes in the wave direction also seem
to indicate a weakening of the Beaufort High illustrated by a
counterclockwise rotation of the mean wave direction for extreme
conditions in the Western Arctic. The projected changes in wave
conditions lead to a general increase of the wave‐driven erosion and
inundation potential along the Arctic coastlines. Potentially
hazardous extreme wave events are projected to become significantly
more frequent and more intense. For example, in the Beaufort
coastlines a once‐in‐20 year event under the historical (1979‐‐2005)
climate is projected to occur, on average, once every 2‐5 years
during 2081‐‐2100. This is a pressing issue as it affects many
Arctic coastal communities, as well as existing and emerging Arctic
infrastructure and activities, with some of them having already
suffered severe wave‐induced damage in the past years.
*Plain Language Summary*
The Arctic Ocean wave climate is drastically changing with
remarkable sea ice retreat. This study presents simulations of
historical and future wave climates for the Arctic Ocean. The
results show that the largest waves will be significantly higher and
longer by the end of the century as the ice‐free season lengthens
and waves become more exposed to storms in autumn. Moreover, the
Arctic wave climate was projected to be more influenced by ocean
waves remotely generated in the North Atlantic, which will be able
to propagate to higher latitudes. This could also lead to changes in
the typical wave direction patterns in the Arctic. The more
energetic waves projected for the future are likely to pose a hazard
to the Arctic coastlines, as the extreme wave events that can cause
erosion and inundation will be more frequent and intense. This is a
pressing issue as it affects many existing Arctic coastal
communities and Arctic infrastructure and activities, some of which
have already suffered severe damage in the past years.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JC015745
- - -
[fundamentally]
*Heat makes ocean winds and waves fiercer*
https://climatenewsnetwork.net/heat-makes-ocean-winds-and-waves-fiercer/
[revisiting photos of old disasters new views before the hurricane season]
*On-line exhibition, "Troubled Waters" at Studio Rubedo extended until
July 25th*
So if you haven't seen it or would like another look please go to:
https://studiorubedo.com/
Also and you can see new work from my ongoing "America's Endangered
Coasts" project that is not included in the exhibition on my recently
revised website:
https://johnganisphotography.com/galleries/americas-endangered-coasts-project-continues-new-work/
And here's a new Re-photographic diptych from the Bolivar Peninsula,
Texas, the site of a house that was inundated by about 8 feet of water
during Hurricane Ike (2008) and has not been redeveloped
www.johnganisphotography.com
www.americasendangeredcoasts.com
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - July 21, 2008*
The UK Office of Communication criticizes Britain's Channel 4 for
running the 2007 denialism doc "The Great Global Warming Swindle."
Below, Peter Sinclair of ClimateCrocks.com debunks the doc.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/22/science/earth/22clim.html?_r=0
http://youtu.be/boj9ccV9htk
http://youtu.be/8nrvrkVBt24
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