[TheClimate.Vote] October 8, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Oct 8 09:42:45 EDT 2020
/*October 8, 2020*/
[the Guardian]
*A second Trump term would be 'game over' for the climate, says top
scientist*
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-climate-change-michael-mann-interview
[NYTimes analysis]
*For Trump, a Pattern of Denial, From the Virus to Russia to Climate Change*
The president's preoccupation with demonstrating strength or rearranging
facts to reinforce his worldview has led him, time and again, to
downplay, ignore or mock serious issues...
- -
Mr. Trump's own Pentagon declared in a report last year that a warming
climate was a major "national security issue" that could spur future
instability around the globe, but to Mr. Trump it remains a theory,
something to be stricken from government reports and explained away when
the West erupted in wildfires...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/us/politics/trump-virus-denial.html
- -
[from Oct 2nd]
*What Made This a Record Fire Season? It Started With Lightning*
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/02/us/fire-california-oregon-start.html
[Yale study]
*Climate Change in the Minds of **U.S. News Audiences*
*This report is an analysis of public opinion about climate change among
the regular U.S. audience*
(American adults who frequently watch, read, or listen to the content)
of each of six major U.S.
news sources: CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, NPR, the Weather Channel, and the
national nightly
network news (on CBS, ABC, or NBC). The findings in this report are
based on data from three
nationally representative surveys conducted by the Yale Program on
Climate Change
Communication and the George Mason University
Executive Summary
*Desire for More Information*
- Large majorities in most news audiences are interested in news
stories about a wide range
of global warming topics (p. 11-13).
- However, majorities in all news audiences feel they are not very
well informed about
global warming (p. 10). Fewer than 20% in any news audience feel
"very well informed."
- Majorities in the CNN, NPR, MSNBC, and the nightly network news
audiences think the
media should be doing more to address global warming, as do about
half of those in the
Weather Channel (51%) audience. In the Fox News audience, only one
in three viewers
(34%) think the media should be doing more (p. 10).
*Global Warming's Six Americas*
- Large majorities of the NPR, MSNBC, and CNN audiences are either
Alarmed or
Concerned (p. 4) about global warming.
- The Concerned and the Cautious make up the largest portion of the
Fox News audience
(43% in total), and fewer (36% in total) are Doubtful or Dismissive
(p. 4).
*Beliefs and Attitudes About Global Warming*
- In all news audiences except that of Fox News, large majorities
think global warming is
happening and human-caused (p. 5).
- About half of the Fox News audience (53%) think global warming is
happening (p. 5).
- Only one in four in the Fox News audience (25%) think global
warming is not happening,
but many (48%) think it is caused by natural changes in the
environment (rather than
human activities) (p. 5).
- Most of the audience of each news source underestimates the
scientific consensus on
human-caused global warming. Members of the NPR audience are most
likely to
understand the extent of the scientific consensus, but even among
this audience those
who do are in the minority.
- In most news audiences, large majorities (80%+ for CNN, MSNBC, and
NPR) are
worried about global warming (p. 6).
- Majorities of the MSNBC, CNN, and NPR audiences think global
warming is already
harming people in the U.S. (p. 7).
*The 2020 Presidential Election*
- Majorities in all audiences say global warming or protecting the
environment will be
important to their vote for president (p. 9).
full report -
https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Climate-Change-in-the-Minds-of-US-News-Audiences.pdf
[follow the money!]
*A clean energy company now has a market cap rivaling ExxonMobil*
NextEra Energy briefly overtook ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco last week
https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/06/a-clean-energy-company-now-has-a-market-cap-rivaling-exxonmobil/
[Uh oh...]
*Vicious Cycle: Climate Change Spreading Infectious Diseases, Which
Contribute to Climate Change*
Sicker livestock may increase climate woes: More parasites means higher
emissions of potent greenhouse gas.
Climate change is affecting the spread and severity of infectious
diseases around the world -- and infectious diseases may in turn be
contributing to climate change, according to a new paper in Trends in
Ecology & Evolution.
The research, led by Vanessa Ezenwa, a professor of ecology at the
University of Georgia, and funded by the Living Earth Collaborative at
Washington University in St. Louis, describes how parasites can cause
animals to produce more methane, a powerful greenhouse gas.
"There is evidence that climate change, and warming temperatures in
particular, are impacting some infectious diseases and increasing their
prevalence," Ezenwa said. "If that's happening for livestock diseases,
and simultaneously higher prevalence is triggering increased methane
release, you could end up with what we call a vicious cycle."
Methane is a greenhouse gas with an effect on global warming 28-36 times
more potent than carbon dioxide. In the past 10 years, atmospheric
methane concentrations have increased rapidly, with about half of the
increase attributed to emissions from livestock.
Here, the researchers -- a team of ecologists, veterinarians, and One
Health experts -- formed a working group led by Amanda Koltz, senior
scientist in biology in Arts & Sciences at Washington University, to
study the effects of parasites on ecosystems -- including their impacts
on climate.
"Infectious diseases impact all animals, but our understanding of how
their effects extend to the broader ecosystem is still limited," Koltz
said. "For example, parasite-host interactions can shape host
physiology, behavior, and population dynamics -- some of those impacts
are likely to have widespread, cascading effects on ecosystem-level
processes."
The review focused on ruminant livestock, a group that includes cows,
sheep, and goats. These animals are known to be major contributors to
global methane emissions and host to many parasites and pathogens as
well. They are also an important part of the global food supply...
- -
The authors calculated that infectious diseases in ruminant livestock
could lead to a sizable increase in methane released into the atmosphere...
- -
The team's findings highlight the need to take infectious diseases into
account when modeling future climate scenarios to ensure that they don't
underestimate methane emissions.
"The vicious cycle between climate impacts on disease and disease
impacts on climate is striking," said co-author Aimee Classen, a
professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and director of the
University of Michigan Biological Station. "Our study highlights that
scientists need to incorporate both animals and disease into the
experiments and models used to predict future carbon emissions."
Reference: 7 October 2020, Trends in Ecology & Evolution.
https://scitechdaily.com/vicious-cycle-climate-change-spreading-infectious-diseases-which-contribute-to-climate-change/
[it figures]
*What caused California's rolling blackouts? Climate change and poor
planning*
California suffered its first rolling blackouts in nearly 20 years
because energy planners didn't take climate change into account and
didn't line up the right power sources to keep the lights on after
sundown, according to a damning self-evaluation released Tuesday by
three state agencies.
The rotating power outages didn't last long and affected only a small
fraction of the state's 40 million people. Just under half a million
homes and businesses lost power for as little as 15 minutes and as long
as two and a half hours on Aug. 14, with another 321,000 utility
customers going dark for anywhere from eight to 90 minutes the following
evening.
But officials should have been prepared for the climate-driven extreme
heat that caused electricity demand to soar and briefly left the
nation's largest state without sufficient power supplies, the state's
Energy Commission, Independent System Operator and Public Utilities
Commission acknowledged in a preliminary "root cause analysis" demanded
by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The immediate cause of the power shortages was the heat storm, which saw
California experience four of its five hottest August days in the last
35 years, the analysis found. Temperature records were shattered across
the American West, limiting the Golden State's ability to make up for
its energy deficit by importing electrons from other states...
- -
Officials have consistently said that intermittent power sources such as
solar panels and wind turbines didn't cause the rolling blackouts. But
gas-burning power plants that can fire up when the sun isn't shining or
the wind isn't blowing have been shutting down in recent years, and
California has largely failed to replace them with cleaner alternatives
such as lithium-ion batteries...
- -
The root cause analysis also faults market mechanisms put in place by
the Independent System Operator, a nonprofit corporation that oversees
the power grid for most of the state. A program known as convergence
bidding, in particular, is meant to help keep electricity prices steady
but instead "masked tight supply conditions" during the August heat
wave, the analysis concluded...
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2020-10-06/california-rolling-blackouts-climate-change-poor-planning
[Digging back into the news archive of *People magazine*]
*On this day in the history of global warming - October 8, 1979 *
People Magazine reports on growing concerns about a human-caused climate
crisis.
*CO2 Could Change Our Climate and Flood the Earth--Up to Here*
By Michael J. Weiss Updated October 08, 1979
If Gordon MacDonald is wrong, they'll laugh, otherwise, they'll gurgle
The scenario reads like an Irwin Allen disaster movie. Early in the
21st century, carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere thickens
ominously. The CO2 admits sunlight but prevents escape of heat from
the planet's surface, creating a situation known as the "greenhouse
effect." Average temperatures increase, from 3 to 20°F, melting ice
at the poles. Oceans rise everywhere by perhaps 20 feet, inundating
coastal cities. Some 25 percent of the world's population must flee
to higher ground. Food shortages follow. All is chaos.
Purveyor of this doomsday theory--the man Charlton Heston would play
in the movie--is Gordon MacDonald, 50, a geology and environmental
sciences professor at Dartmouth. Researchers have long worried about
the effects of carbon dioxide produced by burning oil, gas and coal.
MacDonald says the Carter administration's proposal to develop
synthetic fuels by converting coal into oil and gas involves a
process that will dramatically increase the CO2 level. With
synfuels, atmospheric carbon dioxide could double by 2020, MacDonald
predicts. As a result, new temperature patterns could begin to
change the weather all over the globe by 1990.
"The Adirondacks and New England might not get snow," he predicts.
"In Washington, summer highs will jump from the 90s to the 100s.
Some leafy plants like corn and sugar beets will benefit from
increased photosynthesis, but you'll see a 30- to 40-percent drop in
wheat production. That's because the latitudes suitable for wheat
will move north, where the land lacks nutrients to support intensive
agriculture."
MacDonald has taken his concern to Congress as well as to the
scientific community, and he has credentials in both. At 32, he was
one of the youngest members ever elected to the National Academy of
Sciences in 1962. His resume lists 134 published articles, plus 10
major lecture series. He has also been an adviser to Presidents
Eisenhower (on space exploration), Kennedy (weather), Johnson (ocean
pollution), Nixon (coal), Ford (technology exchange) and Carter
(national security). "Nixon," MacDonald remembers, "would say he had
three summa cum laudes from the Harvard class of 1950: Jim
Schlesinger, Henry Kissinger and me." (At the National Academy of
Sciences in 1963 MacDonald first ran across statistics relating
climate to CO2; since the late 1950s carbon dioxide is up to 10
percent in the atmosphere, but because the ocean is still absorbing
it, no real temperature changes have occurred.)
The greenhouse theory continues to be the subject of heated debate.
Some scientists contend the oceans will never become so saturated
with CO2 that the climate is affected. Dan Dreyfus, staff director
of the Senate Energy Committee, dismisses MacDonald's fears by more
or less dismissing him. "He's a generalist," Dreyfus says. "Carbon
dioxide is not the only thing he's interested in, and it's a very
complicated geophysical problem. I don't think anyone can definitely
say what effect increased CO2 will have on the climate." Yet in
July, when MacDonald and other scientists reported on CO2 to the
President's Council on Environmental Quality, the council called it
"an extremely important, perhaps historic, statement."
As an alternative to synthetic fuels, MacDonald suggests a mix of
solar energy, fusion, natural gas and biomass (mostly alcohol-based
fuels made from converting trees, sugarcane and other plants). He
prefers natural gas, which produces little carbon dioxide. He's
lobbying for it while on leave from Dartmouth to work as chief
scientist at the MITRE Corporation, a goverment-funded Washington
think tank.
MacDonald grew up in Mexico City, the son of a British mining
executive and an American embassy clerk. He became a U.S. citizen in
1955 and taught at UCLA and California (Santa Barbara) before moving
to Dartmouth in 1972. His first marriage ended in divorce. He has
three children by his second wife, who died of cancer; he has a son
with his third wife.
With CO2, MacDonald is of course presenting the worst case scenario
with great flair. "He isn't the usual ass-covering bureaucrat," an
Energy Committee staffer marveled after MacDonald testified against
the Carter synfuel proposal. "He provided quite a show." MacDonald
realizes that if he is wrong, his warnings will sound ridiculous. If
not, world catastrophe will result--"not 200 years from now but
within our lifetime."
http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html
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