[TheClimate.Vote] September 29, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*September 29, 2020*/

[more fires]
*Wine country is on fire: 11,000 acres burned, homes lost, thousands flee*
Sep 28, 2020
Los Angeles Times
Another series of wildfires stormed California's wine country overnight 
as flames destroyed numerous homes and other buildings in Napa and 
Sonoma counties and forced thousands to flee.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkpfFuiZkcs
- -
*Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product*
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms-simple.html


[before the debate review these Important results]
[The Report ]
*Climate Insights 2020: Policies and Politics*
A new study surveying public opinion on proposed environmental policies 
reveals that Americans are widely supportive of climate mitigation measures.

Report (20-12) by Jon Krosnick and Bo MacInnis -- Sep. 23, 2020

*Introduction*
In Climate Insights 2020: Overall Trends, we showed that huge majorities 
of Americans believe that Earth has been warming, that the warming has 
been caused by human activity, that warming poses a significant threat 
to the nation and the world--especially to future generations--and that 
governments, businesses, and individuals should be taking steps to 
address it.

In this report, we turn to specific government opportunities to reduce 
future greenhouse gas emissions, often referred to as climate change 
mitigation. Policies to accomplish this goal fall into multiple 
categories, including:

    *1. Consumer incentive*s that reward people for taking steps that
    reduce their use of fossil fuels and, by extension, reduce their
    carbon footprint
    *2. Carbon pricing policies* that require emitters to pay for their
    carbon emissions, such as a carbon tax (which would require carbon
    emitters to pay a tax for each ton of carbon they emit), or a
    *cap-and-trade* program (which would require businesses to have a
    permit for each ton of carbon they emit)
    *3. Regulations* that require manufacturers to increase energy
    efficiency of their products, including automobiles, appliances, and
    buildings
    *4. Tax incentives* that encourage manufacturers to increase the
    energy efficiency of their products

The 2020 survey asked Americans about their opinions on a wide array of 
such policies, which allows us to not only assess current attitudes, but 
also to track changes in those attitudes over the past two decades 
through comparisons with responses to comparable questions asked in 
earlier national surveys. As we outlined in our first report, one might 
imagine that the current public health, economic, and social crises 
facing the nation may have caused Americans to be less willing to 
support government climate mitigation efforts in favor of addressing 
more immediate problems. As we shall see, that did not happen.

We also took this opportunity to explore whether people evaluate 
government policies based on what they believe is best for the nation as 
a whole (called "sociotropic" reasoning) or whether each individual 
evaluates policies based on their own personal financial interests 
(called "pocketbook" reasoning). As we explored in previous installments 
in this report series, a great deal of economic theory has portrayed 
people as rational actors pursuing their own personal material 
self-interests (Kiewiet 1983; Kinder and Kiewiet 1981; Lewis-Beck and 
Paldam 2000). Rational choice theory suggests that people will support a 
public policy if they perceive that it will yield greater economic 
benefits to them than the costs incurred (Downs 1957). However, research 
has shown that a person's material self-interests have little impact 
when forming opinions about government policies. Instead, people form 
their opinions based much more on "sociotropic" reasoning (Lau and 
Heldman 2009; Sears and Funk 1990; Sears et al. 1980).

To test these competing hypotheses, we explore the extent to which 
support for mitigation policies is driven by beliefs that unchecked 
global warming will either hurt (or help) the respondent personally or 
hurt (or help) society as a whole, and whether efforts to mitigate 
global warming will have unintentional side-effects that will either 
hurt (or help) the respondent economically or hurt (or help) society 
economically...
- -
Read the full report - 
https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/climateinsights2020-policies-and-politics/ 




[video must see]
[*60 Minutes Overtime* ]
*Sir David Attenborough to 60 Minutes on climate change: "A crime has 
been committed"*
Eighteen years after declining to take a hard stance in his first 
profile on 60 Minutes, Sir David Attenborough warns about the dangers of 
climate change.
"He's extremely worried"
Sir David Attenborough was 28-years-old when he convinced his bosses at 
the BBC to let him travel the world and document his explorations. He 
has perpetually been on the road ever since.

For nearly 70 years, the knighted Briton and his teams of filmmakers 
have traveled to some of the most remote places on earth to explore the 
natural world.

"I want [people] to know…not the human story particularly, but the story 
of life on this earth, how it how it developed," Attenborough told 60 
Minutes.
Now 94, Attenborough has witnessed the evolution of the natural world 
more closely than most.

Attenborough studied geology and zoology before embarking on a career in 
television and film. Ever since, he has been an animal advocate, 
conservationist, and serves as an ambassador for the World Wildlife Fund.

For much of his career, Attenborough chose not to preach conservation in 
his films. In 2002, the naturalist told 60 Minutes correspondent Ed 
Bradley in an interview that his role was to show an "objective 
depiction of the natural world."
"The most important job is persuading people that the natural world is 
complex and wonderful and one of the most precious things we have," 
Attenborough said to 60 Minutes in 2002. "And if you're going to do 
that, then every time you do it, you show the facts, you end up by 
saying, 'And it's all disappearing and it's all your fault,' people will 
stop viewing."

Until recently, Attenborough's films shied away from making sweeping 
declarations about the planet's changing climate.

That stance has changed.

Attenborough's latest project includes a book and film both titled, "A 
Life on Our Planet." The documentary premiers on Netflix on October 4. 
He calls this latest project his "witness statement," and on 60 Minutes 
told correspondent Anderson Cooper "a crime has been committed" against 
the planet.

"We're both in broadcasting, if you're going be telling something as 
though it's true, you better be sure it's true," Attenborough said to 
Cooper. "So I didn't say anything much about the world being in 
ecological peril until I was absolutely sure that what I was talking 
about was correct."
Attenborough no longer minces words nor leaves his viewers wondering 
where he stands on the issue of climate change. In the new film, he 
laments Earth's decline and states emphatically, "Our planet is headed 
for disaster."

Despite his stark warning about the planet's peril, Attenborough told 
Cooper it is not too late to salvage it, if countries work together and 
societies alter their behavior. The nonagenarian remains hopeful for the 
future.

"There's a huge movement around the world of people from all nations, 
young people who can see what is happening to the world, and demanding 
that their government should take action," Attenborough said. "And 
that's the best hope that I have."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sir-david-attenborough-60-minutes-2020-09-27/



[better version of sound]
*Anthony Leiserowitz talks climate communication*
Sep 9, 2020
John Cook
An interview with Tony Leiserowitz from Yale University about climate 
communication, scientific consensus, the gateway belief model, & much 
much more. A very high quality, interesting, & informative interview!

This interview was recorded in Paris back in 2015 - we were both at the 
COP21 climate summit. While the conversation is 5 years old, much of the 
principles are timeless. Indeed, subsequent research has strengthened 
the gateway belief model http://sks.to/cocm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVITFMHjg5Y



[Stable oceans means higher saline]
*'Very Bad News': Scientists Behind New Study Warn Warming Oceans 
'Contributing to Climate Breakdown'*
New findings on human-caused global heating and ocean stability have 
"profound and troubling implications," says co-author Michael Mann.
by Jessica Corbett, staff writer
In a rare calm moment during a historically active Atlantic hurricane 
season, an international team of climate scientists on Monday published 
a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change showing that 
human-caused global heating is making the world's oceans more 
"stable"--which, as co-author Michael Mann explained, is "very bad news."

Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State, 
detailed researchers' findings about ocean stratification in a piece for 
Newsweek. Using "more comprehensive data and a more sophisticated method 
for estimating stratification changes" than past studies, the scientists 
found that "oceans are not only becoming more stable, but are doing so 
faster than was previously thought."...
- -
Ending his piece on a similar note, Mann wrote that "in short, it's 
unwise to be complacent given the accumulating scientific evidence that 
climate change and its impacts may well be in the upper end of the range 
that climate scientists currently project. There is ever-greater urgency 
when it comes to acting on climate. But there is agency as well. Our 
actions make a difference--something to keep in mind as we head into a 
presidential election whose climate implications are monumental."

Mann is on the mounting list of climate experts and advocates supporting 
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in his effort to oust 
President Donald Trump--who has, at various points, ignored and 
exacerbated the climate emergency. Earlier this month, the editors of 
Scientific American as well as the political action arms of both 350 and 
Friends of the Earth also endorsed the former vice president.

"The stakes are clear and present," Tamara Toles O'Laughlin from 350 
Action said of the general election, for which early voting is already 
underway in some states. "The planet cannot withstand four more years of 
Trump."
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/09/28/very-bad-news-scientists-behind-new-study-warn-warming-oceans-contributing-climate

- - -

[the latest science]
*New studies confirm weakening of the Gulf Stream circulation (AMOC)*
Filed under: Climate Science -- stefan @ 17 September 2020
Many of the earlier predictions of climate research have now become 
reality. The world is getting warmer, sea levels are rising faster and 
faster, and more frequent heat waves, extreme rainfall, devastating 
wildfires and more severe tropical storms are affecting many millions of 
people. Now there is growing evidence that another climate forecast is 
already coming true: the Gulf Stream system in the Atlantic is 
apparently weakening, with consequences for Europe too.

The gigantic overturning circulation of the Atlantic water (dubbed AMOC) 
moves almost 20 million cubic meters of water per second - almost a 
hundred times the Amazon flow. Warm surface water flows to the north and 
returns to the south as a cold deep current. This means an enormous heat 
transport - more than a million gigawatts, almost one hundred times the 
energy consumption of mankind. This heat is released into the air in the 
northern Atlantic and has a lasting effect on our climate.

But since the 1980s, climate researchers have been warning of a 
weakening or even a cessation of this flow as a result of global 
warming. In 1987, the famous US oceanographer Wally Broecker titled an 
article in the scientific journal Nature "Unpleasant surprises in the 
greenhouse". Even Hollywood took up the subject in 2004 in the film "The 
Day After Tomorrow" by the German director Roland Emmerich. However, 
there were no measurement data that could prove an ongoing slowdown.

Only since 2004 has there been continuous monitoring at 26N in the 
Atlantic (RAPID project). Although the data show a weakening of the 
current system, the measurement series is still too short to distinguish 
a possible climate trend from decadal variability. For the longer-term 
development of the Gulf Stream system, we must therefore rely on 
indirect evidence.

A long-term AMOC weakening should lead to a cooling in the northern 
Atlantic. Such a regional cooling in the middle of global warming has 
been predicted by climate models for a long time. And indeed, the 
evaluation of data on sea surface temperatures shows that the northern 
Atlantic is the only region of the world that has escaped global warming 
and has even cooled down since the 19th century (see graph). In 
addition, one can see a particularly strong warming off the North 
American coast, which according to model simulations is part of the 
characteristic "fingerprint" of a weakening of the Gulf Stream 
circulation...
- -
In addition to these oceanographic measurements, a number of studies 
with sediment data indicate that the Gulf Stream circulation is now 
weaker than it has been for at least a millennium.

These current changes also affect Europe, because the 'cold blob' out in 
the Atlantic also influences the weather. It sounds paradoxical when you 
think of the shock frost scenario of the Hollywood blockbuster The Day 
After Tomorrow: but British researchers found that in summer the jet 
stream in the atmosphere likes to take a route around the south side of 
the cold blob - this then brings warm winds from the southwest into 
Europe, leading to heat waves there, as in the summer of 2015. Another 
study found a decrease in summer precipitation in northern Europe and 
stronger winter storms. What exactly the further consequences will be is 
the subject of current research.

However, the latest generation (CMIP6) of climate models shows one 
thing: if we continue to heat up our planet, the AMOC will weaken 
further - by 34 to 45% by 2100. This could bring us dangerously close to 
the tipping point at which the flow becomes unstable.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/09/new-studies-confirm-weakening-of-the-gulf-stream-circulation-amoc/#more-23249

- -

[Source material from *Nature Climate Change*]
*Weakening Atlantic overturning circulation causes South Atlantic 
salinity pile-up*
Chenyu Zhu & Zhengyu Liu
Nature Climate Change (2020)
*Abstract*

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an active
    component of the Earth's climate system1 and its response to global
    warming is of critical importance to society. Climate models have
    shown an AMOC slowdown under anthropogenic warming since the
    industrial revolution2,3,4, but this slowdown has been difficult to
    detect in the short observational record5,6,7,8,9,10 because of
    substantial interdecadal climate variability. This has led to the
    indirect detection of the slowdown from longer-term
    fingerprints11,12,13,14 such as the subpolar North Atlantic 'warming
    hole'11. However, these fingerprints, which exhibit some
    uncertainties15, are all local indicators of AMOC slowdown around
    the subpolar North Atlantic. Here we show observational and
    modelling evidence of a remote indicator of AMOC slowdown outside
    the North Atlantic. Under global warming, the weakening AMOC reduces
    the salinity divergence and then leads to a 'salinity pile-up'
    remotely in the South Atlantic. This evidence is consistent with the
    AMOC slowdown under anthropogenic warming and, furthermore, suggests
    that this weakening has likely occurred all the way into the South
    Atlantic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0897-7



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - September 29, 2000 *

In an apparent effort to convince moderate voters not to support 
Democratic opponent Al Gore, GOP presidential candidate George W. Bush 
delivers an energy speech implying that he will pursue efforts to reduce 
carbon pollution as president. Bush would go on to abandon this implied 
promise during his tenure in the White House.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/EnergyIssues3


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