[TheClimate.Vote] April 2, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest.
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Apr 2 08:30:31 EDT 2021
/*April 2, 2021*/
[new study, old data]
*Rapid global heating is hurting farm productivity, study finds*
Research shows rising temperatures since 1960s have acted as handbrake
to agricultural yield of crops and livestock
Oliver Milman - Thu 1 Apr 2021
The climate crisis is already eating into the output of the world’s
agricultural systems, with productivity much lower than it would have
been if humans hadn’t rapidly heated the planet, new research has found.
Advances in technology, fertilizer use and global trade have allowed
food production to keep pace with a booming global population since the
1960s, albeit with gross inequities that still leave millions of people
suffering from malnutrition.
But rising temperatures in this time have acted as a handbrake to
farming productivity of crops and livestock, according to the new
research, published in Nature Climate Change. Productivity has actually
slumped by 21% since 1961, compared to if the world hadn’t been
subjected to human-induced heating.With the global population set to
rise to more than 9 billion by 2050, the UN’s Food and Agriculture
Organization has estimated that food production will have to increase by
about 70%, with annual crop production increasing by almost one 1bn
tonnes and meat production soaring by more than 200m tonnes a year by
this point.
Meanwhile, global temperatures are rising at a rate that scientists warn
is extremely dangerous for human civilization.
“The impact already is larger than I thought it would be,” said Ariel
Ortiz-Bobea, an economist at Cornell University who led the research.
“It was a big surprise to me. The worry I have is that research and
development in agriculture takes decades to translate into higher
productivity. The projected temperature increase is so fast I don’t know
if we are going to keep pace with that.”
The research measured productivity by inputs – such as labor, fertilizer
and equipment – and the output in food they produce, using a model to
determine how climate change has influenced this relationship.
While farming has generally become far more efficient in recent decades,
it is increasingly menaced by heatwaves that exhaust farm workers and
wither certain crops. Extreme weather events and drought can also affect
the output of a farm, particularly smaller operations in poorer countries.
In 2019, scientists who analyzed the top 10 global crops that provide
the majority of our food calories found that climate change is reducing
the worldwide production of staples such as rice and wheat. Again, less
affluent countries are suffering worst from this situation.
The intensification of farming to boost output has in itself caused
major environmental damage, through the deforestation of grazing land,
loss of valuable topsoil, pollution from pesticides and the release of
vast amounts of greenhouse gases that contribute to global heating.
“Ultimately we want to increase productivity in a changing climate but a
bad way to do that is by increasing inputs such as land and water,” said
Ortiz-Bobea. “If we were more productive we could produce more with less
of an environmental footprint.”
Weston Anderson, a researcher of food security and climate at Columbia
University who was not involved in the study, said the new research
provides fresh insight into the magnitude of the impact upon agriculture.
“The regions that this paper highlights as experiencing the largest
reductions in agricultural productivity – Central America and the Sahel
– contain some of the least food secure countries in the world, which is
a real concern,” he said.
“It means that populations that were already food insecure are
shouldering the heaviest burden of climate change, and highlights the
importance of doing all that we can to improve agricultural production
in these vulnerable regions immediately.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/01/climate-crisis-global-heating-food-farming-agriculture
- -
Published: 01 April 2021
*Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural
productivity growth*
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Toby R. Ault, Carlos M. Carrillo, Robert G. Chambers
& David B. Lobell
Nature Climate Change
*Abstract*
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the
historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that
growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric
model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor
productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual
climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP.
Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global
agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is
equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The
effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~26–34%) in
warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean.
We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to
ongoing climate change.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01000-1
[Gallup Poll]
*U.S. Public Opinion on the Environment in 2021*
BY RJ REINHART - 4-1-2021
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup first polled Americans about the environment
in 1964, asking if they were aware of the problem of air pollution or
smog -- and 76% said they were.
Gallup's investigation of American attitudes on the environment soon
expanded, and today includes an annual survey devoted to the topic.
Leading up to Earth Day on April 22, Gallup will release a series of
articles based on the 2021 Environment survey, conducted in March. These
articles cover:
-- perceptions of the cause of global warming, as well as concern
over the issue and when Americans believe they will see the impact
of climate change
-- preferences for prioritizing environmental protection or economic
growth when the two interests conflict
-- views of how President Joe Biden will handle the environment and
whether the government is currently doing enough to protect it
-- assessments of the current health of the environment and worry
about specific environmental issues
-- how much companies' records on environmental issues factor into
job-seekers' employment decisions, plus how many Americans consider
themselves environmentalists and how this has changed over time
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/343139/public-opinion-environment-2021.aspx
[yesterday's fools “Voltswagen” does not yet exist]
*Update: VW Plugs in a New Name: “Voltswagen”*
Twist on familiar name to celebrate its $80B electric-vehicle program.
Volkswagen today confirmed plans to change the name of its U.S.
brand to “Voltswagen,” a move meant to underscore its massive shift
to battery-electric vehicles.
Worldwide, the automaker will spend more than $80 billion to bring
at least 50 battery-electric vehicles to market by mid-decade. It’s
first long-range BEV, the ID.3 hatchback, launched in Europe last
year. The ID.4 SUV, the first model to target the U.S., began
rolling into showrooms this past month.
“The idea of a ‘people’s car’ is the very fabric of our being,” said
Scott Keogh, president and CEO of Voltswagen of America, referring
to the German translation of Volkswagen. “We have said, from the
beginning of our shift to an electric future, that we will build EVs
for the millions, not just millionaires. This name change signifies
a nod to our past as the peoples’ car and our firm belief that our
future is in being the peoples’ electric car.”...
https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2021/03/vw-set-to-plug-in-a-new-name-voltswagen/
[get some religion]
30 MARCH 2021
*People of faith are allies to stall climate change*
Together, religious groups and scientists can be a powerful force for a
liveable planet.
I am used to sceptical looks when I talk to scientists about my work
with religious communities. They have reason to see science as under
threat from zealots: examples abound, from the treatment of Galileo
Galilei to vaccine aversion. But faith communities can feel the same way
about scientists. Even if they disagree on important topics, it’s both
possible and essential to collaborate on urgent issues, such as the fact
that large parts of Earth are becoming uninhabitable. In my view, this
Easter, Passover or Ramadan is the perfect time to start.
I’m a political scientist who studies how religious groups respond to
problems, from environmental crises to domestic violence to racism.
Since 2013, I have worked with other researchers, some religious and
some not, to explore climate science with communities of faith...
- -
PDF version (full)
https://media.nature.com/original/magazine-assets/d41586-021-00808-3/d41586-021-00808-3.pdf
- -
Now I’m working to get scientists to at last take religious groups
seriously as allies in the fight against climate change. Last November,
I organized a conference (see go.nature.com/3tp2) on religion and
climate change with the Woolf Institute, an interfaith research centre
in Cambridge, UK. Some 250 people from more than 20 countries showed up.
Scientists from the conference have been invited to speak in religious
communities. The University of Cambridge’s Faculty of Divinity is now
working with Cambridge Zero, the university’s umbrella organization for
climate research — as well as with faith groups across the world — to
organize a faith-and-science summit at the United Nations’ COP26 climate
conference, to be held this November in Glasgow, UK.
Along the way, we’ve learnt about what works.
Collaborate with religious scientists and local leaders. Even the most
conservative faith communities hold scientists who advocate climate
action. Find them, learn their arguments, and cite scripture passages
that will resonate with their communities. Include these in your talks.
Stories speak louder than graphs. Numbers alone won’t make your case.
Focus on the congregation and its fellow believers in regions most
affected by climate change. Stories of ruinous droughts abound in sacred
texts. Show how these pale in comparison to what climate change will bring.
Talk about what matters to you and your audience. Many religious people
feel that science threatens deeply held values. Be ready to hear
religious counterarguments, and avoid science-versus-religion debates.
Instead, talk about what you both care deeply about: the well-being of
your community, the world that your children will grow up in. I have
found that the question of how to be a good ancestor opens up surprising
expanses of common ground.
If you are religious, go to your pastor, imam, rabbi or other local
leader and ask them whether you can give a talk on climate change.
Otherwise, Easter, Passover and Ramadan are good times to visit a local
church, synagogue or mosque. Wish those there a happy holiday, invite
them for tea, and ask whether they would like to explore together what
the climate crisis means for your community.
We could build an alliance powerful enough to rewrite history.
Nature 592, 9 (2021)
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00808-3
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00808-3
[College geology course mentions Paleoclimatology w Prof Nick Zentner
open YouTube]
*Rapid eruption of the Columbia River flood basalt and correlation with
the mid-Miocene climate optimum*
Jennifer Kasbohm and Blair Schoene
*[Abstract]*
Flood basalts, the largest volcanic events in Earth history, are
thought to drive global environmental change because they can emit
large volumes of CO2 and SO2 over short geologic time scales.
Eruption of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) has been linked
to elevated atmospheric CO2 and global warming during the
mid-Miocene climate optimum (MMCO) ~16 million years (Ma) ago.
However, a causative relationship between volcanism and warming
remains speculative, as the timing and tempo of CRBG eruptions is
not well known. We use U-Pb geochronology on zircon-bearing volcanic
ash beds intercalated within the basalt stratigraphy to build a
high-resolution CRBG eruption record. Our data set shows that more
than 95% of the CRBG erupted between 16.7 and 15.9 Ma, twice as fast
as previous estimates. By suggesting a recalibration of the
geomagnetic polarity time scale, these data indicate that the onset
of flood volcanism is nearly contemporaneous with that of the MMCO...
- -
*[Conclusion]*
Future studies should focus on further revision of the mid-Miocene
time scale and a high-resolution
climate proxy record spanning the 700-ka duration of CRBG volcanism
to explore the extent to which the timing of CRBG volcanism agrees
with changes in atmospheric CO2. Such studies will lead to an
improved understanding of the MMCO and more general models linking
volcanism to climate change and could be crucial for understanding
why some flood basalts apparently result in mass extinctions and
others do not.
file:///C:/Users/Richard%20Pauli/Downloads/Rapid_eruption_of_the_Columbia_River_flood_basalt_.pdf
- -
[college course ]
*GEOL 351 - #1 - Introduction*
Streamed live on Mar 30, 2021
- -
*GEOL 351 - #2 - Columbia River Basalt Group*
Streamed live April 1, 2021
Nick Zentner
GEOL 351 lectures from CWU's Discovery Hall by Nick Zentner during
Spring Quarter, 2021.
Tuesdays & Thursdays at 1:00 pm Pacific.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIsiWlVn-EU
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - April 2, 2002 *
The New York Times reports:
"After a year of urging from energy industry lobbyists, the Bush
administration is seeking the ouster of an American scientist who for
nearly six years has directed an international panel of hundreds of
experts assessing global warming, several government officials have said.
"The specialist, Dr. Robert T. Watson, chief scientist of the World
Bank, is highly regarded as an atmospheric chemist by many climate
experts. He has held the unpaid position of chairman of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change since the fall of 1996. Now
his term is expiring and the State Department has chosen not to
renominate him to head the panel, which is run under the auspices of the
United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization.
"Dr. Watson is an outspoken advocate of the idea that human actions —
mainly burning oil and coal — are contributing to global warming and
must be changed to avert environmental upheavals.
"Last night, a State Department official said the administration was
leaning toward endorsing a scientist from India, which along with other
developing countries has been eager for a stronger role in the climate
assessments.
"But many influential climate experts say they have written to the
department supporting Dr. Watson."
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/02/science/02CLIM.html
http://youtu.be/6NcSOUJUBfY
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