[TheClimate.Vote] April 6, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Apr 6 10:48:23 EDT 2021
/*April 6, 2021*/
[let's factor this in too]
*Projected Surge of Lightning Spells More Wildfire Trouble for the Arctic*
A major climate shift in the High North is sparking fires that can
release huge amounts of greenhouse gases from tundra ecosystems, where
fires have been rare until recently.
By Bob Berwyn - April 5, 2021
With the Arctic warming at up to three times the pace of the global
average, more lightning storms will invade the High North, igniting
wildfires that release carbon dioxide and speeding the transition of
flat mossy tundra to brush and forest landscapes that absorb more solar
heat energy.
Yang Chen, an Earth scientist with the University of California, Irvine
and lead author of a study released today in the journal Nature Climate
Change that projected the increases in lightning strikes, said the
findings were somewhat unexpected, and intensify wildfire concerns in
the High North because lightning is the main ignition source in the Arctic.
“The size of the lightning response surprised us because expected
changes at mid-latitudes are much smaller,” he said. More
lightning-caused fires would speed a vicious circle of climate-warming
changes already under way in vast areas of tundra and permafrost across
Siberia and Alaska, he added.
A surge in the frequency of large Arctic fires in the last five years
spurred the research, which is based on 20 years of NASA satellite data
showing the relationship between lightning and the climate, he said.
Linking that data with climate projections through 2100, the scientists
estimated the number of lightning strikes will grow by about 40 percent
for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit of warming. By late in the century, the
IPCC projects the Arctic could warm by 4.5 degrees to 8 degrees
Fahrenheit, depending on emissions.
The study also shows that the region that experiences lightning will
shift, with future flash rates in the far northern tundra areas equal to
the current rate in boreal forests, 300 miles to the south.
The increase may cause “a fire-vegetation feedback whereby more burning
in Arctic tundra expedites the northward migration of boreal trees,”
that will absorb more heat from the sun, accelerating the Arctic cycle
of warming,” the authors wrote in the study...
- -
“We know that if we have a lightning strike it can smolder for several
days, so there is a window for fighting them,” he said. And better
lightning detection could also identify “the zombie fires that smolder
all winter and then flare up in the spring. You could extinguish them
before they blaze up again.”
University of Montana fire ecologist Phil Higuera said suppressing fires
to limit greenhouse gas emissions might be a worthwhile trade-off in a
world with human-caused climate change pushingfire into ecosystems where
it has been historically rare.
“Big picture,” he said, “it’s also key to keep this in context. Limiting
human emissions of CO2 is the much more impactful action in terms of
mitigating and reducing anthropogenic climate change.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05042021/projected-surge-of-lightning-spells-more-wildfire-trouble-for-the-arctic/
- -
[from the journal: nature climate change]
Published: 05 April 2021
*Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon*
Nature Climate Change (2021)
*Abstract*
Lightning is an indicator and a driver of climate change. Here,
using satellite observations of lightning flash rate and ERA5
reanalysis, we find that the spatial pattern of summer lightning
over northern circumpolar regions exhibits a strong positive
relationship with the product of convective available potential
energy (CAPE) and precipitation. Applying this relationship to
Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections
for a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) shows an increase in CAPE
(86 ± 22%) and precipitation (17 ± 2%) in areas underlain by
permafrost, causing summer lightning to increase by 112 ± 38% by the
end of the century (2081–2100). Future flash rates at the northern
treeline are comparable to current levels 480 km to the south in
boreal forests. We hypothesize that lightning increases may induce a
fire–vegetation feedback whereby more burning in Arctic tundra
expedites the northward migration of boreal trees, with the
potential to accelerate the positive feedback associated with
permafrost soil carbon release.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/1
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/2
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/3
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y/figures/4
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01011-y
[Melting ice video 11 minutes]
*Field Study Sheds New Light on Melt Zone*
Apr 5, 2021
NASA Goddard
Five years after a NASA-funded field study returned to to set up camp
once again in the melt zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a new study adds
to the rich findings from this innovative project. We look back on this
bold undertaking, which featured helicopters, floating drifters plunging
into holes in the ice, and all-night shifts operating a sonic boogie
board under endless daylight. Scientist Larry Smith, at the time with
UCLA and now with Brown University, takes us back to the challenges on
the ice and the important findings made with the hard-won data.
Read more:
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2021/what-a-glacial-river-reveals-about-the-greenland-ice-sheet
key image
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/riobehar_img_2031_stitch_11x7.png
video - https://youtu.be/3twOCNP1Gdg
[Yale and UN Development]
*Planet, People, and Prosperity: Achim Steiner, Administrator, United
Nations Development Programme*
Apr 5, 2021
Yale University
On Tuesday, March 30th the Yale Institute for Global Health (YIGH)
welcomed Achim Steiner, Administrator of the UN Development Programme,
to discuss the nexus of the planet’s and people’s wellbeing and how
COVID-19 offers a glimpse of our future with Dr. LaRon Nelson, Associate
Dean for Global Affairs and Planetary Health at the Yale School of
Nursing and Dr. Robert Dubrow, Associate Professor and Director of the
Yale Center for Climate Change and Health at the Yale School of Public
Health.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGwOVqa9Dqw [begins ~ 7 mins in, or if
you must, start 20 mins in]
[from DeSmogBlog's databases of organizations and individuals related to
global warming]
*An extensive database of organizations connected to Charles Koch or the
Koch network.*
*An extensive database of individuals connected to Charles Koch or the
Koch network.*
Welcome to DeSmog’s Koch Network Database where you can browse our
extensive research on the individuals and organizations linked to
Charles Koch or other members of the Koch family, Koch Industries, and
related entities. Choose a tab below to view the directories of
individuals and organizations profiled in the Koch Network Database.
https://www.desmogblog.com/koch-network-database
[Video -- TFP = total food productivity]
*Anthropogenic Climate Change has Slowed Global Agricultural
Productivity Growth by 21%: 1 and 2*
Apr 5, 2021
Paul Beckwith
I chat about an extremely significant brand spanking new scientific
paper that was published in the last few days called “Anthropogenic
Climate Change has slowed Agricultural Productivity Growth” in my first
Part 1 of 2 videos.
In my second, Part 2 of 2 videos, I show the figures and graphs backing
my chat.
A so-called econometric model of weather effects on Global Agricultural
TFP (Total Factor Productivity) between 1961 and 2020 shows that global
agricultural TFP has been reduced due to Anthropogenic Climate Change
(ACC) by 21% since 1961. In a counterfactual world without ACC,
agricultural productivity would have increased from 100 in 1961 to 210
in 2020; in our real world ACC has shaved 2020 down to 190. Clearly,
anthropogenic climate change has already taken a big bite out of our
global food supply growth that has occurred since 1961. The growth has
occurred because of Agricultural Research and technologies that have
increased food productivity, but ACC is significantly cutting into those
gains. Warmer regions of the planet (Africa, Latin America, Caribbean)
have suffered a 26-34% reduction.
Global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.
Although ACC had slowed global agricultural productivity growth between
1961 and 2020 by 21%, the slowing was about 30% in the latter half of
the period (1989 to 2015) as compared to about 10% in the earlier half
of the period (1961 to 1988). There are also large regional cross
country disparities, notably Africa has had 34% slowing, the Near East
and North Africa 30%, and Latin American countries 25.9% slowing. Cooler
regions like North America have had less slowing (12.5%) and Europe and
Central Asia 7% slowing. This regional variation has greatly exacerbated
the inequalities between poor and rich countries; the most affected
region is sub-Saharan Africa.
In conclusion, Anthropogenic Climate Change is increasingly slowing
global agricultural gains that have occurred due to Agricultural
Research. These impacts are detectable and sizeable already; this is not
a case of something happening in 10 years or by 2050 or 2100.
First one -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp2O8bcR-jo
Second -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P67Z14vzx2A
- -
[journal nature climate change]
Published: 01 April 2021
*Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural
productivity growth*
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Toby R. Ault, Carlos M. Carrillo, Robert G. Chambers
& David B. Lobell
Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages 306–312 (2021)
*Abstract*
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the
historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that
growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric
model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor
productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual
climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP.
Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global
agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is
equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The
effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~26–34%) in
warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean.
We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to
ongoing climate change.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01000-1
[media battleground - video discussion]
*Breaking the Media's Climate Silence*
Apr 5, 2021
Covering Climate Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlrWbipxpXE
[more disinformation education]
*How the oil industry made us doubt climate change*
By Phoebe Keane
BBC News
Published 20 September 2020
As climate change becomes a focus of the US election, energy companies
stand accused of trying to downplay their contribution to global
warming. In June, Minnesota's Attorney General sued ExxonMobil, among
others, for launching a "campaign of deception" which deliberately tried
to undermine the science supporting global warming. So what's behind
these claims? And what links them to how the tobacco industry tried to
dismiss the harms of smoking decades earlier?
To understand what's happening today, we need to go back nearly 40 years.
Marty Hoffert leaned closer to his computer screen. He couldn't quite
believe what he was seeing. It was 1981, and he was working in an area
of science considered niche.
"We were just a group of geeks with some great computers," he says now,
recalling that moment.
But his findings were alarming.
"I created a model that showed the Earth would be warming very
significantly. And the warming would introduce climatic changes that
would be unprecedented in human history. That blew my mind."...
Marty Hoffert was one of the first scientists to create a model which
predicted the effects of man-made climate change. And he did so while
working for Exxon, one of the world's largest oil companies, which would
later merge with another, Mobil.
At the time Exxon was spending millions of dollars on ground-breaking
research. It wanted to lead the charge as scientists grappled with the
emerging understanding that the warming planet could cause the climate
to change in ways that could make life pretty difficult for humans.
Hoffert shared his predictions with his managers, showing them what
might happen if we continued burning fossil fuels in our cars, trucks
and planes.
But he noticed a clash between Exxon's own findings, and public
statements made by company bosses, such as the then chief executive Lee
Raymond, who said that "currently, the scientific evidence is
inconclusive as to whether human activities are having a significant
effect on the global climate".
"They were saying things that were contradicting their own world-class
research groups," said Hoffert.
Angry, he left Exxon, and went on to become a leading academic in the field.
"What they did was immoral. They spread doubt about the dangers of
climate change when their own researchers were confirming how serious a
threat it was."
So what changed? The record-breaking hot summer of 1988 was key. Big
news in America, it gave extra weight to warnings from Nasa scientist Dr
Jim Hansen that "the greenhouse effect has been detected, and is
changing our climate now".
Political leaders took notice. Then UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher
acknowledged the great new global threat: "The environmental challenge
which confronts the whole world demands an equivalent response from the
whole world."
In 1989, Exxon's strategy chief Duane Levine drew up a confidential
presentation for the company's board, one of thousands of documents in
the company's archive which were later donated to The University of
Texas at Austin.
Levine's presentation is an important document, often cited by
researchers investigating Exxon's record on climate change science.
"We're starting to hear the inevitable call for action," it said, which
risked what it called "irreversible and costly draconian steps".
"More rational responses will require efforts to extend the science and
increase emphasis on costs and political realities."...
- -
In a statement, ExxonMobil told the BBC that "allegations about the
company's climate research are inaccurate and deliberately misleading".
"For more than 40 years, we have supported development of climate
science in partnership with governments and academic institutions. That
work continues today in an open and transparent way.
"Deliberately cherry-picked statements attributed to a small number of
employees wrongly suggest definitive conclusions were reached decades ago."
ExxonMobil added that it recently won the court case brought by the New
York Attorney General which had accused the company of fraudulently
accounting for the costs of climate change regulation.
But academics like David Michaels fear the use of uncertainty in the
past to confuse the public and undermine science has contributed to a
dangerous erosion of trust in facts and experts across the globe today,
far beyond climate science or the dangers of tobacco.
He cites public attitudes to modern issues like the safety of 5G,
vaccinations - and coronavirus.
"By cynically manipulating and distorting scientific evidence, the
manufacturers of doubt have seeded in much of the public a cynicism
about science, making it far more difficult to convince people that
science provides useful - in some cases, vitally important - information.
"There is no question that this distrust of science and scientists is
making it more difficult to stem the coronavirus pandemic."
It seems the legacy of "the tobacco playbook" lives on.
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53640382
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53640382
[an unconscious hurtle]
Ben Ehrenreich/March 18, 2021
*We’re Hurtling Toward Global Suicide*
Why we must do everything differently to ensure the planet’s survival
Audio
https://www.audm.com/?utm_source=newrepublic&utm_medium=playerembed&utm_campaign=suicide-prevention-ehrenreich&utm_content=default
On January 13, one week before the inauguration of Joe Biden as the
forty-sixth president of the United States and seven long days after the
storming of the Capitol by an armed right-wing mob, it was easy enough
to miss an article published in the journal Frontiers in Conservation
Science, despite its eye-catching title: “Underestimating the Challenges
of Avoiding a Ghastly Future.” The headline was itself a train wreck:
six dully innocuous words piling up in front of a modifier more suitable
to a 1950s horror comic than a sober, academic journal. But there it
was: The 17 scientists who co-wrote the article, the experts who
peer-reviewed it, and the journal’s editors did not consider the word
“ghastly” too sensational, subjective, or value-laden to describe the
future toward which our society is advancing with all the prudence and
caution of a runaway locomotive. The article’s message was simple:
Everything must change.
On its current track, the authors wrote, “humanity is causing a rapid
loss of biodiversity and, with it, Earth’s ability to support complex
life.” As many as a million animal species—and 20 percent of all
species—are facing near-term extinction. Humans have altered 70 percent
of the planet’s land surface and “compromised” or otherwise despoiled
two-thirds of its oceans, and the climate has only begun to warm.
Humanity—or some of us, anyway—“is running an ecological Ponzi scheme in
which society”—or some sectors of it—“robs nature and future generations
to pay for boosting incomes in the short term.” Only a radical
transformation of the systems that govern our relations to one another
and to the myriad forms of life with which we share the planet, the
authors concurred, could deliver any hope of a “less-ravaged future.”...
- -
It is of course foolish to the point of derangement to imagine that Joe
Biden would consent to any such transformation, much less lead the
country toward one. Given the current political geography, it would be
equally whimsical to suppose that any American politician or movement
could ride to power on the message that this planet does not belong to
us, that we share it with the dead and the still-to-be-born and with
species we have not bothered to notice, and that we must learn to live
among them with generosity, humility, and the sort of wisdom that does
not come to human beings cheaply. However, it would be just as naïve to
believe that current political configurations are any more stable or
permanent than the climate, or any less vulnerable to concerted human
action. If we do actually listen to the science, then we understand what
ghastly futures await us and we know how bold we must be to avoid them.
Any politics that presumes to be anything other than suicidal must take
that knowledge as its starting point.
https://newrepublic.com/article/161575/climate-change-effects-hurtling-toward-global-suicide
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - April 6, 2000 *
April 6, 2000: Predicting the controversies that would define the George
W. Bush administration, New York Times columnist Bob Herbert observes,
"Mr. Bush's relationship to the environment is roughly that of a doctor
to a patient -- when the doctor's name is Kevorkian."
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/06/opinion/in-america-bush-goes-green.html?pagewanted=print
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