[TheClimate.Vote] April 8, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Apr 8 10:17:02 EDT 2021
/*April 8, 2021*/
[above 421 by some measurements]
*Carbon dioxide in atmosphere has spiked to record-setting new level*
Observatory data confirms a returned trend of increasing atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels.
By Alexandra Kelley | April 6, 2021
Story at a glance
-- As travel returns worldwide, carbon dioxide levels are increasing.
-- Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are key contributors to
climate change.
-- One of the U.S.’s premier observatories for measuring carbon
dioxide emissions released into the atmosphere reported a
record-breaking figure on April 3, noting a total of 421.21
particulate matter (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere
— the highest daily average ever recorded.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/546653-carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-has-spiked-to
[hot job openings abound]
*BLM recruitment video says you will “have the time of your life”*
Bill Gabbert - April 7, 2021
Advertises jobs as “firefighter”, which is not accurate
The Bureau of Land Management released yesterday a two-minute video that
supposedly answers questions, including, “Should I apply to be a
wildland firefighter with the BLM?” This is at best, misleading, since
most if not all of their employees that do fight fire work under job
titles of “Forestry Technician” or “Range Technician”.
Besides the “Should I apply” question, the video addresses others, such as:
“I don’t know, it seems kind of boring. And not fun at all.
“What if I get dirty?
“What would I do in my free time?”
*Our take*
The federal land management agencies that hire employees with a primary
function of fighting fire put most of them in positions with job titles
of Forestry Technician or Range Technician. It is deceptive advertising
to publish documents or videos stating that you can be a “firefighter”
with their agency.
The Federal Trade Commission Act prohibits advertising that is likely to
mislead consumers and affect consumers’ behavior or decisions about the
product or service.
If an advertiser under the Federal Trade Commission’s jurisdiction is
advertising a product that does not comply with the law, violators could
face enforcement actions or civil lawsuits with fines up to $43,792 per
violation, or civil penalties up to $40,654 per violation.
In the case of the BLM encouraging the public to apply for firefighting
jobs, the solution is to do the morally and ethically right thing —
accurately describe the positions these employees would be working
under. In the longer term, change their job descriptions from Range or
Forestry Technicians, to Firefighter.
And, let them earn a living wage that is commensurate with the work they
do, and is competitive in the firefighting community.
We have reached out to the BLM about this issue. If we hear back, we
will update this article.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/04/07/blm-recruitment-video-says-you-will-have-the-time-of-your-life/
- -
[Recruitment video - ~3mins]
*Bureau of Land Management *
https://twitter.com/i/status/1379566031304204289
https://www.nifc.gov/careers
- -*
*
[BLM]
*Lessons learned on Colorado’s Cameron Peak Fire where 76 people tested
positive for COVID-19*
Two fire personnel were hospitalized and 273 had to be quarantined while
the fire was being suppressed
https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/04/07/lessons-learned-on-colorados-cameron-peak-fire-where-76-people-tested-positive-for-covid-19/
- -
[report of contact tracing analysis]
*Cameron Peak Facilitated Learning Analysis*
Apr 1, 2021
Draw Science
https://youtu.be/_EzX9jT7nJI
[Extinction Rebellion assembles an important video discussion]
*Ask a Scientist LIVE | Ep. 7 - Beyond optimism or doomism*
4-7-21
Extinction Rebellion
Beyond optimism or doom: How can we communicate the need for urgent
climate action?
Do you have a burning desire to talk about the Climate & Ecological
Emergencies and engage with your peers to push for #climateaction, but
you’re worried about eye-rolling and putting people off?
How do we communicate the grim facts of environmental destruction in a
way that motivates people to act, rather than sink into despair? Can we
still be optimistic when we look at the future, even as we face the risk
of collapse?
Our amazing panel of experts
* Dr Margaret Klein Salamon @ClimatePsych
* Prof. Michael Mann @MichaelEMann
* Rosemary Randall;
* Dr Stuart Capstick @StuartBCapstick
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSYnrfOqG9g
[Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences]
*Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought*
Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for more than 8 million people
worldwide in 2018
By Leah Burrows | Press contact
February 9, 2021
More than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution,
significantly higher than previous research suggested, according to new
research from Harvard University, in collaboration with the University
of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University College
London. Researchers estimated that exposure to particulate matter from
fossil fuel emissions accounted for 18 percent of total global deaths in
2018 — a little less than 1 out of 5.
Regions with the highest concentrations of fossil fuel-related air
pollution — including Eastern North America, Europe, and South-East Asia
— have the highest rates of mortality, according to the study published
in the journal Environmental Research.
The study greatly increases estimates of the numbers killed by air
pollution. The most recent Global Burden of Disease Study, the largest
and most comprehensive study on the causes of global mortality, put the
total number of global deaths from all outdoor airborne particulate
matter — including dust and smoke from wildfires and agricultural burns
— at 4.2 million.
The findings underscore the detrimental impact of fossil fuels on global
health.
How did the researchers arrive at such a high number of
fossil-fuel-caused deaths?
Previous research relied on satellite and surface observations to
estimate the average global annual concentrations of airborne
particulate matter, known as PM2.5. The problem is, satellite and
surface observations can’t tell the difference between particles from
fossil fuel emissions and those from dust, wildfire smoke or other sources.
“With satellite data, you’re seeing only pieces of the puzzle,” said
Loretta J. Mickley, Senior Research Fellow in Chemistry-Climate
Interactions at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and
Applied Sciences (SEAS) and co-author of the study. “It is challenging
for satellites to distinguish between types of particles, and there can
be gaps in the data.”
To overcome this challenge, the Harvard researchers turned to GEOS-Chem,
a global 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry led at SEAS by Daniel Jacob,
the Vasco McCoy Family Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry and
Environmental Engineering. Previous studies have used GEOS-Chem to model
the health impacts of particulate matter, and its results have been
validated against surface, aircraft, and space-based observations around
the world.
For a global model, GEOS-Chem has high spatial resolution, meaning the
researchers could divide the globe into a grid with boxes as small as 50
km x 60 km and look at pollution levels in each box individually.
“Rather than rely on averages spread across large regions, we wanted to
map where the pollution is and where people live, so we could know more
exactly what people are breathing,” said Karn Vohra, a graduate student
at University of Birmingham and first author of the study. Vohra is
advised by coauthor Eloise Marais, a former postdoctoral fellow at
Harvard, now Associate Professor in the Department of Geography at UCL.
To model PM2.5 generated by fossil fuel combustion, the researchers
plugged into GEOS-Chem estimates of emissions from multiple sectors,
including power, industry, ships, aircraft and ground transportation and
simulated detailed oxidant-aerosol chemistry driven by meteorology from
the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The researchers used
emission and meteorology data primarily from 2012 because it was a year
not influenced by El Niño, which can worsen or ameliorate air pollution,
depending on the region. The researchers updated the data to reflect the
significant change in fossil fuel emissions from China, which fell by
about half between 2012 and 2018.
“While emission rates are dynamic, increasing with industrial
development or decreasing with successful air quality policies, China’s
air quality changes from 2012 to 2018 are the most dramatic because
population and air pollution there are both large,” said Marais.
“Similar cuts in other countries during that time period would not have
had as large an impact on the global mortality number.”
The combination of 2012 and 2018 data from China gave the researchers a
clearer picture of global fossil fuel emission rates in 2018.
Once they had the concentration of outdoor fossil-fuel PM2.5, the
researchers needed to figure out how those levels impacted human
health. While it's been known for decades that airborne particles are a
danger to public health, there have been few epidemiological studies to
quantify the health impacts at very high levels of exposure such as
those found in China or India. Previous research converted health risks
of indoor second-hand smoke exposures to estimate the risks of outdoor
PM2.5 at these high levels. However, recent studies from Asia found that
this approach substantially underestimates the risk at high
concentrations of outdoor air pollution.
Coauthors Alina Vodonos and Joel Schwartz, Professor of Environmental
Epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (HSPH),
developed a new risk assessment model that linked the concentration
levels of particulates from fossil fuel emissions to health outcomes.
This new model found a higher mortality rate for long-term exposure to
fossil fuel emissions, including at lower concentrations.
Often, when we discuss the dangers of fossil fuel combustion, it’s in
the context of CO2 and climate change and overlook the potential health
impact of the pollutants co-emitted with greenhouse gases,” said
Schwartz. “We hope that by quantifying the health consequences of fossil
fuel combustion, we can send a clear message to policymakers and
stakeholders of the benefits of a transition to alternative energy sources.”
The research underscores the importance of policy decisions, said Vohra.
The researchers estimated that China’s decision to cut its fossil fuels
emissions nearly in half saved 2.4 million lives worldwide, including
1.5 million lives in China, in 2018.
“Our study adds to the mounting evidence that air pollution from ongoing
dependence on fossil fuels is detrimental to global health,” said
Marais. “We can’t in good conscience continue to rely on fossil fuels,
when we know that there are such severe effects on health and viable,
cleaner alternatives.”
This research was supported by the Wallace Global Fund, the Environment
and Health Fund (EHF) Israel, The Environmental Protection Agency, and
University of Birmingham Global Challenges PhD studentship.
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought
[Robotic drilling is driving this change]
Kate Aronoff/April 5, 2021
*Fossil Fuel Companies Are Job Killers*
New analysis shows the number of workers required per project will soon
fall by 20 to 30 percent, even without a transition to renewables.
https://newrepublic.com/article/161937/fossil-fuel-companies-job-killers
[follow the common sense money]
*How Debt and Climate Change Pose ‘Systemic Risk’ to World Economy*
With dozens of countries struggling to manage both staggering debt and
mounting climate disasters, some financial leaders are calling for green
debt relief.
By Somini Sengupta - April 7, 2021
How does a country deal with climate disasters when it’s drowning in
debt? Not very well, it turns out. Especially not when a global pandemic
clobbers its economy.
Take Belize, Fiji and Mozambique. Vastly different countries, they are
among dozens of nations at the crossroads of two mounting global crises
that are drawing the attention of international financial institutions:
climate change and debt.
They owe staggering amounts of money to various foreign lenders. They
face staggering climate risks, too. And now, with the coronavirus
pandemic pummeling their economies, there is a growing recognition that
their debt obligations stand in the way of meeting the immediate needs
of their people — not to mention the investments required to protect
them from climate disasters.
The combination of debt, climate change and environmental degradation
“represents a systemic risk to the global economy that may trigger a
cycle that depresses revenues, increases spending and exacerbates
climate and nature vulnerabilities,” according to a new assessment by
the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and others, which was seen
by The Times. It comes after months of pressure from academics and
advocates for lenders to address this problem...
- -
At the time, half of all countries that the World Bank classified as
low-income were either in what it called “debt distress or at a high
risk of it.” Many of those are also acutely vulnerable to climate
change, including more frequent droughts, stronger hurricanes and rising
sea levels that wash away coastlines.
(The fund said on Monday that it would not require 28 of the world’s
poorest countries to make debt payments through October, so their
governments can use the money on emergency pandemic-related relief.)
Lately, there’s been a flurry of proposals from economists, advocates
and others to address the problem. The details vary. But they all call,
in one way or another, for rich countries and private creditors to offer
debt relief, so countries can use those funds to transition away from
fossil fuels, adapt to the effects of climate change, or obtain
financial reward for the natural assets they already protect, like
forests and wetlands. One widely circulated proposal calls on the Group
of 20 (the world’s 20 biggest economies) to require lenders to offer
relief “in exchange for a commitment to use some of the newfound fiscal
space for a green and inclusive recovery.”...
- -
Six countries on the continent are in debt distress, and many more have
seen their credit ratings downgraded by private ratings agencies. In
March, finance ministers from across Africa said that many of their
countries had spent a sizable chunk of their budgets already to deal
with extreme weather events like droughts and floods, and some countries
were spending a tenth of their budgets on climate adaptation efforts.
“Our fiscal buffers are now truly depleted,” they wrote.
In developing countries, the share of government revenues that go into
paying foreign debts nearly tripled to 17.4 percent between 2011 and
2020, an analysis by Eurodad, a debt relief advocacy group found.
Research suggests that climate risks have already made it more expensive
for developing countries to borrow money. The problem is projected to
get worse. A recent paper found climate change will raise the cost of
borrowing for many more countries as early as 2030 unless efforts are
made to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/07/climate/debt-climate-change.html
[AP California]
*Study: Climate change has made rainstorms more erratic, droughts much
longer in U.S. West*
Rainstorms grew more erratic and droughts much longer across most of the
U.S. West over the past half-century as climate change warmed the
planet, according to a sweeping government study released Tuesday that
concludes the situation is worsening.
The most dramatic changes were recorded in the desert Southwest, where
the average dry period between rainstorms grew from about 30 days in the
1970s to 45 days between storms now, said Joel Biederman, a research
hydrologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Southwest Watershed
Research Center in Tucson, Arizona.
The consequences of the intense dry periods that pummeled areas of the
West in recent years were severe — more intense and dangerous wildfires,
parched croplands and not enough vegetation to support livestock and
wildlife. And the problem appears to be accelerating, with rainstorms
becoming increasingly unpredictable, and more areas showing longer
intervals between storms since the turn of the century compared to prior
decades, the study concludes.
The study comes with almost two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. beset by
abnormally dry conditions. Warm temperatures forecast for the next
several months could make it the worst spring drought in almost a
decade, affecting roughly 74 million people across the U.S., the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said...
- -
“Climate models project that the American Southwest is very likely to
experience more frequent and more severe droughts,” said William
Anderegg, a University of Utah biologist and climate scientist. “This
study and other recent work demonstrates that this dry down has already
begun.”...
- -
Northwestern states were largely spared from the accelerating cycles of
drought. The researchers observed higher annual rainfall totals and
shorter drought intervals in Washington, Oregon, Idaho and portions of
Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas.
That’s consistent with predicted alterations in weather patterns driven
by climate change in which the jet stream that brings moisture from the
Pacific Ocean shifts northward, they said.
https://ktla.com/news/california/study-climate-change-has-made-rainstorms-more-erratic-droughts-much-longer-in-u-s-west/
[Sea level rise in North Carolina and from Maine to Florida]
*Sea level rise is killing trees along the Atlantic coast, creating
‘ghost forests’ that are visible from space*
Emily Ury, Ph.D. Candidate, Duke University - April 6, 2021
Trekking out to my research sites near North Carolina’s Alligator River
National Wildlife Refuge, I slog through knee-deep water on a section of
trail that is completely submerged. Permanent flooding has become
commonplace on this low-lying peninsula, nestled behind North Carolina’s
Outer Banks. The trees growing in the water are small and stunted. Many
are dead.
Throughout coastal North Carolina, evidence of forest die-off is
everywhere. Nearly every roadside ditch I pass while driving around the
region is lined with dead or dying trees.
As an ecologist studying wetland response to sea level rise, I know this
flooding is evidence that climate change is altering landscapes along
the Atlantic coast. It’s emblematic of environmental changes that also
threaten wildlife, ecosystems, and local farms and forestry businesses.
Like all living organisms, trees die. But what is happening here is not
normal. Large patches of trees are dying simultaneously, and saplings
aren’t growing to take their place. And it’s not just a local issue:
Seawater is raising salt levels in coastal woodlands along the entire
Atlantic Coastal Plain, from Maine to Florida. Huge swaths of contiguous
forest are dying. They’re now known in the scientific community as
“ghost forests.”...
- -
Rising seas are inundating North Carolina’s coast, and saltwater is
seeping into wetland soils. Salts move through groundwater during phases
when freshwater is depleted, such as during droughts. Saltwater also
moves through canals and ditches, penetrating inland with help from wind
and high tides. Dead trees with pale trunks, devoid of leaves and limbs,
are a telltale sign of high salt levels in the soil. A 2019 report
called them “wooden tombstones.”...
- -
Should scientists fight the transition or assist it?
As global sea levels continue to rise, coastal woodlands from the Gulf
of Mexico to the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere around the world could
also suffer major losses from saltwater intrusion. Many people in the
conservation community are rethinking land management approaches and
exploring more adaptive strategies, such as facilitating forests’
inevitable transition into salt marshes or other coastal landscapes.
For example, in North Carolina the Nature Conservancy is carrying out
some adaptive management approaches, such as creating “living
shorelines” made from plants, sand and rock to provide natural buffering
from storm surges.
[Deep knowledge, daily. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.]
A more radical approach would be to introduce marsh plants that are
salt-tolerant in threatened zones. This strategy is controversial
because it goes against the desire to try to preserve ecosystems exactly
as they are.
But if forests are dying anyway, having a salt marsh is a far better
outcome than allowing a wetland to be reduced to open water. While open
water isn’t inherently bad, it does not provide the many ecological
benefits that a salt marsh affords. Proactive management may prolong the
lifespan of coastal wetlands, enabling them to continue storing carbon,
providing habitat, enhancing water quality and protecting productive
farm and forest land in coastal regions.
https://theconversation.com/sea-level-rise-is-killing-trees-along-the-atlantic-coast-creating-ghost-forests-that-are-visible-from-space-147971
[Australia speaks]
*Australian scientists sound alarm over Paris climate goals*
Andrew Freedman - April 6, 2021
The Australian Academy of Science quietly released a report on March 31
that underlines the stakes of President Biden’s April 22 climate summit
and the next U.N. climate confab in Glasgow.
The big picture: The report, produced by Australia’s equivalent to the
Royal Society of London, heaps doubt upon the feasibility of the Paris
Agreement's target of limiting global warming to “well below” 1.5
degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to preindustrial levels by 2100.
It calls the goal “virtually impossible” based on how significantly
temperatures have already shifted, and the lack of emissions reduction
commitments that would meet the challenge.
The details: Consistent with other recent studies, the report warns the
world is on course for at least about 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit)
of warming if current emissions reduction pledges are not dramatically
altered.
Australia — the world’s driest inhabited continent — has much to lose
from climate change, as demonstrated by the recent flooding, wildfires
and bleaching of vast stretches of the Great Barrier Reef.
As warming worsens, the country’s energy infrastructure will be
increasingly stressed by heatwaves and storms. The report recommends
“diversifying energy sources” and making systems more resilient.
It notes that to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the country would
need to “shift energy export industries to zero emissions as a matter of
urgency.” That's no small feat, considering that Australia is one of the
world’s largest coal exporters, much of it flowing to China.
The bottom line: Unless far more ambitious near-term emissions targets
are established, which is the main goal of both the White House and UN
climate meetings, the report finds that even the less stringent Paris
2-degree target won’t be achievable. This is because emissions
trajectories would begin arcing downward too late to get there.
https://www.axios.com/climate-change-action-australian-report-d6066be2-f1cf-4017-a884-8995928dfe45.html
[classic talk on some maths in climate science]
*The Math of Climate Change*
Nov 22, 2018
Gresham College
Climate change is controversial and the subject of huge debate. Complex
climate models based on math helps us understand. How do these models work?
A lecture by Chris Budd OBE, Gresham Professor of Geometry 13 November 2018
Climate change is important, controversial, and the subject of huge
debate. Much of our understanding of the future climate comes from the
use of complex climate models based on mathematical and physical ideas.
In this talk, Professor Budd will describe how these models work and the
assumptions that go into them. He will discuss how reliable our
predictions of climate change are, and show how mathematicians can give
us insights into both past and future.
https://youtu.be/w4O4jK-lZrI
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - April 8, 2003 *
In the New York Times, climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer declares:
"The threat of global warming, first raised in 1896, has outlived many
foreign policy crises. Our failure to deal with it is starting to bear a
bitter harvest not only in rising seas and intensified rainstorms, but
also in disruption of long-standing alliances, and interference with
other foreign policy objectives. It is well past time for U.S. leaders
to put the climate problem at the center of America's domestic and
international agendas."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/08/opinion/08iht-edoppen_ed3_.html
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