[TheClimate.Vote] January 17, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*January 17, 2021*/

[Wildfire Today]
*Red Flag Warnings in Southern California*
Posted on January 16, 2021
The winds are going to be breezy to very strong, off and on through Thursday
After record high temperatures were set Friday in multiple Southern 
California locations, Red Flag Warnings continue on Saturday. Residents 
in Santa Clarita can expect the temperature to reach 83 degrees today, 
with the humidity in the low teens, and 22 mph winds out of the 
northeast gusting to 33. Strong winds will continue through Saturday 
night but will taper off a bit Sunday, 18 to 22 mph gusting out of the 
northeast at 28 to 34.

Monday afternoon a strong offshore pressure gradient will begin growing, 
bringing very strong winds out of the northeast again, with the humidity 
in the low 20s and teens.

Wind speeds next week:

    Monday afternoon: 24 mph gusting at 32
    Monday night: 25 to 47 gusting at 37 to 62
    Tuesday: 47 gusting at 63
    Tuesday night: 29 to 41 gusting at 38 to 54
    Wednesday: 18 to 26 gusting at 24 to 34

https://wildfiretoday.com/
https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/01/16/red-flag-warnings-in-southern-california-2/



[Media and Climate Change Observatory]
*2020 Year End Retrospective*
  Special Issue 2020
*A Review of Media Coverage of Climate Change and Global Warming in 2020*
2020 has been another critical year in which climate change and global 
warming fought for media attention amid competing interests in other 
stories, events and issues around the globe. Yet, climate change and 
global warming garnered coverage through stories manifesting through 
primary and often intersecting, political, economic, scientific, 
cultural as well as ecological and meteorological themes.

As the year 2020 has drawn to a close, new vocabularies have pervaded 
the centers of our consciousness: ‘flattening the curve’, systemic 
racism, ‘pods’, hydroxycholoroquine, ‘social distancing’, quarantines, 
‘remote learning’, essential and front-line workers, ‘superspreaders’, 
P.P.E., ‘doomscrolling’, and Zoom...
- -
At the global level, 2020 media attention dropped 23% from 2019.
Nonetheless, this level of coverage was still up 34% compared to 2018,
41% higher than 2017, 38% higher than 2016 and still 24% up from 2015. In
fact, 2020 ranks second in terms of the amount of coverage of climate 
change or
global warming (behind 2019) since our monitoring began 17 years ago in 2004
- -
We monitor 120 sources (across newspapers, radio and TV) in 54 countries 
in seven different regions around the world. We assemble the data by 
accessing archives through the Lexis Nexis, Proquest and Factiva 
databases via the University of Colorado libraries. These sources are 
selected through a decision processes involving weighting of three main 
factors:
-- geographical diversity (favoring a greater geographical range)
-- circulation (favoring higher circulating publications)
-- reliable access to archives over time (favoring those accessible 
consistently for longer periods of time)
https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/images/sp2020/figure3.jpg
https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/special_issue_2020.html


[use the past to forecast]
*Climate change could take weather patterns back to the Pliocene*
If you want to know how the climate-changed future will unfold, look at 
the past
By NATHANAEL JOHNSON
JANUARY 16, 2021
The West Coast drinks from the wind. When westerly gales carry humid air 
from the Pacific Ocean into the Sierra Nevada and the Cascade mountain 
ranges, the West turns green, orchards blossom, and reservoirs swell. 
When those westerlies deflect to the north, hills turn brown, cities ban 
sprinklers, and forest fires flare.

There are consistent bands of westerly winds at about 40 degrees 
latitude in both hemispheres — near San Francisco in the northern 
hemisphere, and near Concepción, Chile, in the south. Over the past few 
decades scientists have seen these westerlies creeping toward the poles. 
If this shift is a result of climate change and continues, it could have 
profound implications: Over the next century, Seattle might become as 
dry as Los Angeles, and California could settle into an era of unending 
drought.
So are the westerlies going to keep drifting away from the equator? 
Well, if you want to know how the climate-changed future will unfold, 
look at the past: In the Pliocene, 2.6 to 5 million years ago, carbon 
dioxide levels were about what they are today but with warmer 
temperatures. And a new paper, just published in the journal Nature, 
provides evidence that back then the westerlies were closer to the poles.

The scientists didn't intend to chart the paths of ancient winds. They 
started off by studying the dust blown off the steppes of Asia that has 
swirled down for millenia to form the muddy bottom of the Pacific Ocean. 
While examining the layers of sediment on the ocean floor, they realized 
they were able to spot a change in the prehistoric winds.

"As we are looking at these dust records, we saw that the dust goes up a 
lot 2.7 million years ago," as the Pliocene climate was cooling, said 
Jordan Abell, the paper's lead author and a doctoral candidate in earth 
and environmental sciences at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth 
Observatory. Back then, the climate took a cold turn. As temperatures 
cooled and ice-caps grew over the north pole, the winds began dumping a 
lot more dust into a previously windless site closer to the equator.
This makes some intuitive sense. Weather tends to happen in the spots 
where warm air meets cold. "The weather is more intense where the 
temperature gradient is steep," Abell said. "When you have ice over your 
poles it's going to cool the air and move that gradient toward the equator."

Now we may be witnessing the phenomenon in reverse: As ice caps dwindle, 
prevailing winds could slide away from the equator. That doesn't 
guarantee it's going to happen in the near future. This paper isn't 
about how the weather patterns will shift in the next generation, it's 
about how things are likely to change over the next century. In the long 
term, the trajectory is not back to the future, but forward toward the 
Pliocene.
https://www.salon.com/2021/01/15/climate-change-could-take-weather-patterns-back-to-the-pliocene_partner/



[food stress]
*Climate Change Is Harming Children’s Diets Globally, Scientists Warn*
Emily Denny - Jan. 15, 2021
In an alarming new study, scientists found that climate change is 
already harming children's diets.

It has long been understood that climate change will impact diet and 
food security globally. But up until now, little research proved how 
diet diversity is impacted by climate change outcomes, like warmer 
temperatures and increased precipitation, over a span of geographical areas.

Led by researchers at the University of Vermont, the study surveyed the 
diets of more than 107,00 children under the age of five, across 19 
countries in Asia, Africa, and South America, with 30 years of 
precipitation and temperature data, according to the study...
Higher, long-term temperatures were associated with decreased diet 
diversity among children. "It surprised us that higher temperatures are 
already showing an impact," Meredith Niles, the study's lead author and 
an assistant professor of Nutrition and Food Sciences at the University 
of Vermont, said in an article.

In 2019, over 144 million children under the age of five were 
malnourished, according to data by the UNICEF. This number could have 
grown by an additional 6.7 million in 2020 alone, exacerbated by the 
COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report published in July.

In the study, researchers used a scale developed by the United Nations 
to understand intakes of micronutrients like iron, folic acid, zinc and 
vitamins A and D.

On average children ate 3.2 out of 10 food groups. But in "emerging 
economies" like in China, children ate 6.8 out of 10 food groups, more 
than doubling the overall average, according to the University of 
Vermont. Household wealth, consequently, was the biggest factor in 
children's diet diversity, Reuters reported.

"These results suggest that, if we don't adapt, climate change could 
further erode a diet that already isn't meeting adequate child 
micronutrient levels," Brendan Fisher from UVM's Rubenstein School of 
Environment and Natural Resources said about children's diets in 
developing countries.

Although the study proved what researchers had long expected regarding 
warming temperatures, they did find surprising results on how 
precipitation alters diet diversity.

Higher precipitation, linked to countries in West and Southeast Africa 
and Central America, was associated with higher diversity in children's 
diet, the University of Vermont reported.

"Higher rainfall in the future may provide important diet quality 
benefits in multiple ways, but it also depends on how that rain comes," 
Molly Brown, a co-author of the study said. "If it's more erratic and 
intense, as is predicted with climate change, this may not hold true."

Changes in the agriculture and the food industry can also be linked to 
worsening diets, Paolo Vineis of Imperial College London, who studies 
the effects of climate change on the disease, told Reuters.

By 2050, global demand for food may increase by 59 to 98 percent from a 
larger population. Although this will require major agricultural and 
food industries to rapidly expand their production, droughts and higher 
temperatures will threaten their ability to do so, Columbia University's 
Earth Institute reported.

In the United States alone, for example, the production of corn, which 
is used to feed livestock, could decrease by 50 percent if the planet 
warms by four degrees Celsius, a study found, a likely temperature 
increase predicted for 2100.

So what kind of solutions can help?

Educating investors on the financial risks and potential opportunities 
of the climate crisis could help the food industry adapt to the climate 
impacts already being felt, Columbia University's Earth Institute reported

"Food security is going to be one of the most pressing climate-related 
issues, mainly because most of the world is relatively poor and food is 
going to become increasingly scarce and expensive," Peter De Menocal, 
founding director of Columbia's Center for Climate and Life, told 
Columbia's Earth Institute.

As for improving diets globally, researchers at the University of 
Vermont stress the need for more research aimed at protecting children's 
nutrition especially for "vulnerable populations in low and 
middle-income countries across the tropics where the most profound 
climate changes are expected."

https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change-children-food-2649952919.html

- -[UNICEF data]

*Malnutrition prevalence remains alarming: stunting is declining too 
slowly while wasting still impacts the lives of far too many young children*
Nearly half of all deaths in children under 5 are attributable to 
undernutrition; undernutrition puts children at greater risk of dying 
from common infections, increases the frequency and severity of such 
infections, and delays recovery.
UNICEF Data: Monitoring the situation of children and women
https://data.unicef.org/topic/nutrition/malnutrition/


[one oil company has stopped lobbying]
*France's Total quits top U.S. oil lobby in climate split*
By Ron Bousso
LONDON (Reuters) - France’s Total SE on Friday became the first major 
global energy company to quit the main U.S. oil and gas lobby due to 
disagreements over its climate policies and support for easing drilling 
regulations...
Total said it would not renew its 2021 membership with the American 
Petroleum Institute (API) following a review of the lobby’s climate 
positions, describing them as being only “partially aligned” with its own.

The high-profile departure from the most powerful energy lobby comes 
ahead of sweeping changes in policy direction in the United States, with 
incoming President Joe Biden promising to tackle climate change and 
bring the country to net-zero emissions by 2050.

“As part of our climate ambition made public in May 2020, we are 
committed to ensuring, in a transparent manner, that the industry 
associations of which we are a member adopt positions and messages that 
are aligned with those of the Group in the fight against climate 
change”, Total Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné said.
The withdrawal highlights a widening rift between Europe’s top energy 
companies, which over the past year accelerated plans to cut emissions 
and build large renewable energy businesses and their U.S. rivals Exxon 
Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp that have largely resisted growing investor 
pressure to diversify.

Chevron has no plans to leave the API, company spokesman Sean Comey 
said. Exxon was not immediately available for comment.

The announcement puts pressure on Total’s European rivals BP and Royal 
Dutch Shell to follow suit after resisting the move in recent years.

BP, Shell and Norway’s Equinor on Friday said they are reviewing 
memberships in trade organizations and how they align on climate-related 
issues. Shell spokesman Curtis Moore said “API is moving closer to 
Shell’s own stated views” on climate change...
- -
Total, BP and Shell have already pulled out of the American Fuel & 
Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), a U.S. oil refining group, also due 
to differences over climate policies.

The withdrawal from API was more significant, said Andrew Logan, 
director for oil and gas programmes and clean energy investor group 
CERES, said the announcement was significant and would put pressure on 
other European oil majors.

“Given the size and influence of API, this is a much more significant 
move than previous decisions to pull out of more niche trade groups like 
AFPM. I think that we will see other companies follow suit,” Logan said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-total-api/total-quits-top-us-oil-lobby-in-climate-split-idUSKBN29K1LM


[Andy Revkin video]
*How to Build Science Engagement in a Disrupted Democracy*
Jan 15, 2021
Andrew Revkin
It’s hard enough for data and expertise to prompt significant changes in 
behavior or policy even in the best of times. And these are not the best 
of times by a long shot, with an unabated pandemic and economic stresses 
deepening a profound societal, and information, divide.

Join a brisk quest for solutions with the Earth Institute’s Andy Revkin 
and two communication scholars immersed in efforts to stem the pandemic 
and climate change:

- Dominique Brossard, chair of the University of Wisconsin-Madison 
Department of Life Sciences Communication

- Matthew C. Nisbet, professor of communication, public policy, and 
urban affairs at Northeastern University

Read Nisbet's new Substack column: Wealth of Ideas - Politics, culture, 
and moderation in an age of extremes: https://wealthofideas.substack.com/

He also wrote a relevant 2018 report for the American Association for 
the Advancement of Science, Scientists in Civic Life: Facilitating 
Dialogue-Based Communication: https://www.aaas.org/programs/dialogu...

Brossard is an internationally recognized expert in public opinion 
dynamics around a host of controversial science-bound issues, from 
climate policy to emerging genetic technologies and, of course, 
COVID-19. She is a member of the National Academies' Societal Experts 
Action Network (SEAN), an array of experts in the social, behavioral, 
and economic sciences poised to assist decision makers at all levels as 
they respond to COVID-19. https://www.nap.edu/resource/25826/in...

Sustain What, produced and hosted by veteran journalist Andrew Revkin, 
is a series of conversations pursuing progress when complexity, conflict 
and consequence collide: http://j.mp/sustainwhatlive

Send feedback or suggestions for future shows:
http://j.mp/sustainwhatfeedback
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ch3ZU_Vbt8



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - January 17, 2006 *

The Fred Barnes book "Rebel-in-Chief: Inside the Bold and Controversial 
Presidency of George W. Bush" is released. In the book, Barnes notes 
that in 2005, Bush had a private meeting with overrated novelist and 
climate-change denier Michael Crichton, during which Bush and Crichton 
"were in near-total agreement" about the supposed alarmism of climate 
activists.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/19/national/19warming.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0

http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/2006/02/16/the-full-barnes-treatment-of-b/

http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2008/11/07/michael-crichton-author-of-state-of-fear-leaves-global-warming-disinformation-legacy/


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