[✔️] July 25, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
👀 Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Jul 25 08:51:39 EDT 2021
/*July 25, 2021*/
[get ready]*
**US set for punishing temperatures as huge ‘heat dome’ to settle over
country*
Heatwave to next week roast areas already gripped by severe drought,
plunging reservoirs and wildfires
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/24/america-heatwave-climate-crisis-heat-dome
- -
[NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
*6 to 10 Day Outlooks*
Valid: July 29 to August 02, 2021
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
[POV PGE camera ]
*Fly Fire: Indian Ridge ALERT Wildfire camera burn over 1PM, July 24th,
2021*
Jul 24, 2021nvseismolab
Deja Vu: first camera burn over of the 2021 wildfire season atop Indian
Ridge as the Fly Fire crests the ridge. So far the ALERTWildfire camera
and radio equipment have survived, so far ...
[set playback to lowest speed - the timecode is difficult to read, but
this may be an hour duration]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJlnLP_l8nw
[some science]
*Santa Ana winds and power line failures found to be behind autumn and
winter fires in Southern California*
by Bob Yirka , Phys.org - JULY 22, 2021 REPORT
A team of researchers affiliated with multiple institutions in the U.S.
and one in Canada has found that the increasing number of large fires in
Southern California during the autumn and winter months are mostly due
to the Santa Ana winds and power line failures, rather than rising
temperatures. In their paper published in the journal Science Advances,
the group describes their study of fires in Southern California going
back to 1948.
Large wildfires in California regularly make the news because of their
magnitude and ferocity. Some studies have shown that they are increasing
in frequency and intensity as the planet grows warmer. In this new
effort, the researchers note that there are two fire seasons in
California, but only one of them is growing worse due to climate change.
In California, the two fire seasons are summer and autumn through
winter. Prior research has shown that most summer fires are ignited by
lightning in remote locations. Autumn and winter fires, on the other
hand, are almost always ignited by humans via arson and power line failures.
Power lines can start a fire in several ways, including downed lines,
vegetation contact and equipment failures that lead to arcing. And
because power lines are strung in places where people live and work,
such fires tend to be closer to towns and cities. Power line failures
can occur at any time during the year, but autumn and winter season have
the worst fires because they are pushed by the speed and strength of the
Santa Ana winds.
To learn more about autumn and winter fires, the researchers pored over
data describing wildfires in Southern California from 1948 to 2018 along
with associated weather data. In so doing, they found no link between
rising temperatures or decreases in rainfall to account for the increase
in fires. Instead, they found it was mostly due to increases in the size
of power grids and encroachment by humans onto forested lands. They
suggest that the way to reduce the number of such fires is to put more
resources into maintaining power lines and put new ones underground.
https://phys.org/news/2021-07-santa-ana-power-line-failures.html
[Ooops, poop dumping by cruise ships]
*Deadly coral disease sweeping Caribbean linked to wastewater from ships*
Researchers find ‘significant relationship’ between stony coral tissue
loss disease and nearby shipping
Jewel Fraser in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad --22 Jul 2021
A virulent and fast-moving coral disease that has swept through the
Caribbean could be linked to waste or ballast water from ships,
according to research.
The deadly infection, known as stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD),
was first identified in Florida in 2014, and has since moved through the
region, causing great concern among scientists...
- -
Conducted in the Bahamas by scientists at the Perry Institute for Marine
Science, it found that SCTLD was more prevalent in reefs that were
closer to the Bahamas’ main commercial ports, in Nassau and Grand
Bahama, suggesting a likely link between the disease and ships...
- -
Currently, the most effective treatment for the disease is the
application of the antibiotic amoxicillin directly to the corals, which
has seen some success in reducing mortality, but no realistic permanent
solution is available.
According to Lang, rather than treating the symptoms, there is a need to
tackle the possible human-made causes. “Given a chance, nature can heal
naturally,” she said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/22/deadly-coral-disease-sweeping-caribbean-linked-to-wastewater-from-ships
[hot reactors need cool waters]
*Nuclear power’s reliability is dropping as extreme weather increases*
A comprehensive analysis shows that warmer temperatures aren't the only
threat.
K. E. D. COAN - 7/24/2021
Tth extreme weather causing power failures in California and Texas, it's
increasingly clear that the existing power infrastructure isn't designed
for these new conditions. Past research has shown that nuclear power
plants are no exception, with rising temperatures creating cooling
problems for them. Now, a comprehensive analysis looking at a broader
range of climate events shows that it's not just hot weather that puts
these plants at risk—it's the full range of climate disturbances.
Heat has been one of the most direct threats, as higher temperatures
mean that the natural cooling sources (rivers, oceans, lakes) are
becoming less efficient heat sinks. However, this new analysis shows
that hurricanes and typhoons have become the leading causes of nuclear
outages, at least in North America and South and East Asia.
Precautionary shutdowns for storms are routine, and so this finding is
perhaps not so surprising. But other factors—like the clogging of
cooling intake pipes by unusually abundant jellyfish populations—are a
bit less obvious.
Overall, this latest analysis calculates that the frequency of
climate-related nuclear plant outages is almost eight times higher than
it was in the 1990s. The analysis also estimates that the global nuclear
fleet will lose up to 1.4 percent—about 36 TWh—of its energy production
in the next 40 years and up to 2.4 percent, or 61 TWh, by 2081-2100...
- -
The two main categories of climate disruptions broke down into thermal
disruptions (heat, drought, and wildfire) and storms (including
hurricanes, typhoons, lightning, and flooding). In the case of heat and
drought, the main problem is the lack of cool-enough water—or in the
case of drought, enough water at all—to cool the reactor. However, there
were also a number of outages due to ecological responses to warmer
weather; for example, larger than usual jellyfish populations have
blocked the intake pipes on some reactors.
Storms and wildfires, on the other hand, caused a range of problems,
including structural damage, precautionary preemptive shutdowns, reduced
operations, and employee evacuations. In the timeframe of 2010 to 2019,
the leading causes of outages were hurricanes and typhoons in most parts
of the world, although heat was still the leading factor in Western
Europe (France in particular). While these represented the most frequent
causes, the analysis also showed that droughts were the source of the
longest disruptions and thus the largest power losses.
The author calculated that the average frequency of climate-linked
outages went from 0.2 outages per year in the 1990s to 1.5 outages in
the timeframe of 2010 to 2019. A retrospective analysis further showed
that, for every 1° C rise in temperature (above the average temperature
between 1951 and 1980), the energy output of the global fleet fell about
0.5 percent...
*- -*
"Existing nuclear plants are already among the most resilient assets of
our energy infrastructure," writes Buongiorno. "The current fleet is
adapting to rising sea levels (for those plants located in areas at
potential risk of flood) and the increasing intensity of storms. New
nuclear reactor technologies will be even more resilient, as in many
instances that are being designed to be dry cooled (i.e., not using
river/ocean water for rejecting heat to the ambient) as well as capable
of operating in 'island mode,' i.e., disconnected from the grid and
ready to restart before other large power plants in the event of a
blackout."
Other nuclear technologies, such as pebble-bed, molten salt, and
advanced small modulator reactors, may also provide more
climate-resistant solutions, but these are all still under development.
In general, the strict regulations in place for nuclear reactors make
incorporating newer technologies particularly difficult. Even as these
technologies become available, it will likely require further reactor
downtime to install new components. So, at least in the short term, even
nuclear power will likely contribute to the increasing frequency of
climate-related power shortages.
Nature Energy, 2021. DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00849-y (About DOIs).
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/climate-events-are-the-leading-cause-of-nuclear-power-outages/
- -
[from the Journal Nature Energy]
*Increase in frequency of nuclear power outages due to changing climate*
Ali Ahmad
Nature Energy volume 6, pages755–762 (2021)Cite this article
*Abstract*
Climate-related changes have already affected operating conditions
for different types of energy system, in particular power plants.
With more than three decades of data on changing climate, we are now
in a position to empirically assess the impact of climate change on
power plant operations. Such empirical assessments can provide an
additional measure of the resilience of power plants going forward.
Here I analyse climate-linked outages in nuclear power plants over
the past three decades. My assessment shows that the average
frequency of climate-induced disruptions has dramatically increased
from 0.2 outage per reactor-year in the 1990s to 1.5 in the past
decade. Based on the projections for adopted climate scenarios, the
average annual energy loss of the global nuclear fleet is estimated
to range between 0.8% and 1.4% in the mid-term (2046–2065) and 1.4%
and 2.4% in the long term (2081–2100).
Nature Energy, 2021. DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00849-y (About DOIs).
[More than a Pope-mobile]
*Conference primes US church for bolder responses to Laudato Si',
climate change*
Jul 19, 2021
by Brian Roewe
For three days in online spaces and forums, thousands of Catholics
looked to prime the U.S. church for a fuller-throated response to
climate change and Pope Francis' invitation to become a central
component in the global response to the ecological challenges facing the
world.
More than 2,600 people registered for the virtual "Laudato Si' and the
U.S. Catholic Church" conference, the second of three co-organized by
Catholic Climate Covenant and Creighton University to amplify the
country's response to Francis' 2015 encyclical "Laudato Si', on Care for
Our Common Home." The first gathering took place in 2019 on the Jesuit
campus in Omaha, Nebraska, and the final is set for 2023.
Much of this middle conference, held July 13-15, was geared toward
updates and preparations for the full release of the Vatican's Laudato
Si' Action Platform in the fall. The ambitious project, developed by the
Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, invites church
institutions large and small to commit to seven-year plans toward total
sustainability, including becoming carbon neutral and expanding
ecological education, in the spirit of Laudato Si'...
- -
Nevertheless, presenters said, it is important not to let doubters hold
up the work when scientists — and the Vatican — say there is no time to
waste.
"We need to do the work and not wait for our leaders to lead us," said
Patrick Barredo, director of social outreach and advocacy for St. James
Cathedral in Seattle, who has helped form a grassroots creation care
network in the archdiocese and wrote to Archbishop Paul Etienne asking
that he launch a series of climate initiatives.
Toward the end of the conference, Delio was asked how she maintains hope
amid increasing scenes of creation's destruction.
The Franciscan sister replied she tries to be mindful of her own actions
— even picking up earthworms along walking paths to protect them, as St.
Francis of Assisi did — believing in God's goodness, and celebrating
life, even when things look dark.
"Truthfully, I think we need to lighten up. We need to laugh more,"
Delio said, before adding, "Yes, it is bad. I'm not saying it isn't. But
it's not over. This is not an over-and-done universe. God is inviting us
to wake up, to get up and to make something new together."
Brian Roewe is NCR environment correspondent. His email address is
broewe at ncronline.org. Follow him on Twitter at @brianroewe.
https://www.ncronline.org/news/earthbeat/conference-primes-us-church-bolder-responses-laudato-si-climate-change
[DeSmogBlog]
*Investigation: How the Meat Industry is Climate-Washing its Polluting
Business Model*
Growing global meat consumption threatens to derail the Paris Agreement,
but that hasn’t stopped the meat industry insisting it is part of the
solution to climate change.
Caroline Christenon - - Jul 18, 2021
“They’re paid to comfort us. They’re paid to get us to not think
hard and deeply about the industry. They’re paid to assuage our
worries. And they’re paid to tell regulators: ‘Don’t worry,
we’ll self-regulate. We’ll do a good job. You don’t need to
worry about us. We are good actors.’”
Jennifer Jacquet, Associate Professor of Environmental Studies
https://www.desmog.com/2021/07/18/investigation-meat-industry-greenwash-climatewash/
- -
[the key propaganda organization]
*AHDB Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board*
https://www.desmog.com/agribusiness-database-Agriculture-Horticulture-Development-Board/
[Clim-migration]
*Climate Migration May Lead to the Next Great Housing Crisis | NBCLX*
Apr 23, 2021
NBCLX
Climate migration and gentrification will accelerate as the United
States faces an accelerating sea level rise, more intense heatwaves,
wildfires, and even mega hurricanes, all worsened by a warming planet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE3N1f2XgGQ
[Are you still reading? Try this from The Guardian:]
Interview
*Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction*
Edward Helmore - - July 25, 2021
- -
“The key finding of my study is that we still have a choice to align
with a scenario that does not end in collapse. With innovation in
business, along with new developments by governments and civil society,
continuing to update the model provides another perspective on the
challenges and opportunities we have to create a more sustainable world.”
At the same time, she says, the primary concern of the MIT study have
been supplanted. “Resource scarcity has not been the challenge people
thought it would be in the 70s and population growth has not be the
scare it was in the 90s. Now the concern is pollution and how it
perfectly aligned with what climate scientists are saying,” she said.
- -
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth
[From the news archive - and I read this original Walter Sullivan
article in 1977]
*On this day in the history of global warming July 25, 1977*
The New York Times ran this front-page story
*Scientists Fear Heavy Use of Coal May Bring Adverse Shift in Climate*
By Walter Sullivan
July 25, 1977
Highly adverse consequences” may follow if the world, as now seems
likely, depends increasingly on coal for energy over the next two
centuries, according to a blue‐ribbon panel of scientists.
In a report to the National Academy of Sciences on their
two‐and‐a‐half‐year study, the scientists foresee serious climate
changes beginning in the next century. By the latter part of the 22d
century a global warming of 10 degrees Fahrenheit is indicated, with
triple that rise in high latitudes.
This, it is feared, could radically disrupt food production, lead to
a 20‐foot rise in sea level and seriously lower productivity of the
oceans.
The focus of concern is the addition of carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere by fuel burning. While that gas represents less than
one‐tenth of 1 percent of the atmosphere, it acts like glass in a
greenhouse. That is, it permits passage of sunlight to heat the
earth but absorbs infrared radiation that would otherwise return
some of that heat to space.
In recent months several scientists have warned of the consequences
of increasing, long‐term dependence on fossil fuels, notably coal,
as the chief energy source because of what could be disastrous
effects on climate. The argument has been seized on by advocates of
nuclear energy.
The new study does not deal with alternative energy sources. Nor
does it call for early curtailment of coal burning. Heavy use of
such fuel is being promoted by the Carter Administration as a means
of avoiding excessive dependence on nuclear energy.
The central recommendation of the re port, prepared with help from a
number of Government agencies, laboratories and computer facilities,
is initiation of farreaching studies on a national and international
basis to narrow the many uncertainties that affect assessment of the
threat.
To this end, it proposes creation by the Federal Governmment of a
climatic council to coordinate American efforts and to participate
in the development of international studies. Representatives of the
White House and Government agencies that would be involved in such
an effort were at the academy on Friday to hear presentations on the
281‐page report.
These were offered by Roger R. Revelle, chairman of the 15‐member
panel, and by Philip H. Abelson and Thomas F. Malone, co‐chairmen of
the academy's geophysics study committee, which initiated the project.
Dr. Revelle heads the Center for Population Studies at Harvard
University and was formerly director of the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif. Dr. Abelson heads the Carnegie
Institution of Washington. Dr. Malone, who directs the Holcomb
Research Institute at Butler University in Indianapolis, has for
many years been a leader in weather research.
Dr. Malone said that the report was not a red light on coal use, nor
a green light, but rather a “flashing yellow light” saying, “Watch
out.” Dr. Revelle, in a summary of the findings, said that early
action was needed because it would take decades to narrow the
uncertainties and then a full generation to shift to new energy
sources if that, as expected, proves necessary.
*Problem of Change Stressed*
“An interdisciplinary effort of an almost unique kind” is needed, he
said, bringing together specialists from such fields as mathematics,
chemistry, meteorology and the social sciences. A major challenge
would be to find ways to bring about the needed institutional
changes, persuading governments and people to act before it was too
late.
By the end of this century, Dr. Revelle said, it is expected that
the carbon dioxide content of the air will have risen 25 percent
above its level before the Industrial Revolution. By the end of the
next century, it will have doubled, based on predicted increases in
population and fuel consumption.
By the middle of the 22d Century, he added, it should have increased
from four to eight times and, even if fuel burning diminishes then,
it will remain that high “at least 1,000 years thereafter.”
It is estimated that in the last 110 years 127 billion tons of
carbon derived from fuel and from limestone used to make cement have
been introduced into the atmosphere. Cement manufacture accounted
for 2 percent of that amount and burning for the rest.
A considerable part of the carbon dioxide increase is attributed to
clearing land for agriculture. This added 70 billion tons, according
to an estimate that Dr. Revelle, however, described as “very
uncertain.” He noted that one acre of a tropical forest removes 100
tons of carbon from the atmosphere. When the land is cleared that
carbon, through burning or decay, returns to the air. More than half
of land clearing for agriculture has occurred since the mid‐19th
Century, he said.
Dr. Revelle termed the predicted worldwide rise of 11 degrees in the
22d century “a very shaky conclusion” based on inadequate knowledge.
But, he added, it is “a possibility that must be taken seriously.”
Part of the uncertainty concerns the amount of added atmospheric
carbon dioxide that would be absorbed by the oceans and plant
growth. He predicted that a research program to achieve more
reliable estimates would cost $20 million to $100 million.
*Shift in Corn Belt Seen**
*
Much of the report deals with expected effects of a global warming.
Agricultural zones would be transferred to higher latitudes. The
corn belt, for example, would shift from fertile Iowa to a Canadian
region where the soil is far less fertile, Dr. Revelle said.
Particularly vulnerable, he added, would be the fringes of arid
regions, where a large part of the world population derives its
sustenance, though the effect is difficult to predict. Marine life
would suffer from lack of nutrients because a “lid” of warm water
would impede circulation that normally brings nutrients to the surface.
On the other hand, plant productivity, Dr. Revelle noted, could rise
50 percent because plants would be “fertilized” by the higher carbon
dioxide content of the air. The warmer climate could melt the
floating pack ice of the Arctic Ocean, leading to radical changes in
the Northern climate.
The report suggests that increased snowfall on Antarctica could
overload the West Antarctic ice sheet, sending large sections of it
into the sea. This would raise global sea levels 16 feet. The oceans
would swell from being warmed to make the total rise 20 feet.
The study assumed a world population of 10 billion by late in the
next century and a fivefold increase over present ener‐i gy
consumption. The direct effect of heat from such energy use would be
insignificant except locally, the report says.
It also assumed that for public health reasons the release of
particles into the atmosphere would be sufficiently curtailed for
their role to be a minor one so far as climate is concerned.
A number of research strategies are proposed to reduce
uncertainties. The most ambiguous estimates concern the role of
plants. It is estimated that land plants annually remove 55 billion
tons of carbon from the atmosphere, and that oceanic plants take up
another 25 billion tons.
One of the firmer estimates concerns the current rise in carbon
dioxide content of the air because of measurements conducted largely
by Dr. Charles D. Keeling of the University of California at San
Diego. These have been made atop Mauna Loa, the Hawaiian volcano,
and at the South Pole, both sites being far removed from local
sources of pollution. They show a 5 percent rise in the last 15
years. The total rise to date has been 11.5 to 13.5 percent.
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=FB0F11F8395E137B93C7AB178CD85F438785F9
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