[✔️] July 27, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
👀 Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Jul 27 06:10:27 EDT 2021
/*July 27, 2021*/
[get ready]
*‘Record-shattering’ heat becoming much more likely, says climate study*
More heatwaves even worse than those seen recently in north-west of
America forecast in research
- -
The study also showed that record-shattering events could come in sharp
bursts, rather than gradually becoming more frequent. “That is really
concerning,” Fischer said: “Planning for heatwaves that get 0.1C more
intense every two or three years would still be very worrying, but it
would be much easier to prepare for.”
Prof Michael Mann, at Pennsylvania State University in the US and not
part of the new research, said: “This study underscores something that
has been apparent in the record weather extremes we’ve seen this summer:
dangerous climate change is here, and it’s now simply a matter of how
dangerous we are willing to let it get.” Mann’s own research published
in May showed a possible doubling of heat stress in the US by 2100....
- -
“The good news is that we can prevent the worst case shown in this
study,” she said. If emissions start falling immediately and rapidly,
the study showed, the risk of record-shattering extremes is cut by about
80%. “With Cop26 looming, we must hope that policymakers use evidence
like this to show the need for global emissions reductions,” Thompson said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/26/record-shattering-heat-becoming-much-more-likely-says-climate-study
- -
[published in Nature Climate Change]
*Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes*
E. M. Fischer, S. Sippel & R. Knutti
Nature Climate Change July 26, 2021
*Abstract*
Recent climate extremes have broken long-standing records by large
margins. Such extremes unprecedented in the observational period
often have substantial impacts due to a tendency to adapt to the
highest intensities, and no higher, experienced during a lifetime.
Here, we show models project not only more intense extremes but also
events that break previous records by much larger margins. These
record-shattering extremes, nearly impossible in the absence of
warming, are likely to occur in the coming decades. We demonstrate
that their probability of occurrence depends on warming rate, rather
than global warming level, and is thus pathway-dependent. In
high-emission scenarios, week-long heat extremes that break records
by three or more standard deviations are two to seven times more
probable in 2021–2050 and three to 21 times more probable in
2051–2080, compared to the last three decades. In 2051–2080, such
events are estimated to occur about every 6–37 years somewhere in
the northern midlatitudes.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01092-9
[small world after all]
*Numerous Massachusetts fire departments answer calls about smell of
smoke from western wildfires*
https://www.wcvb.com/article/numerous-massachusetts-fire-departments-answer-calls-about-smell-of-smoke-from-western-wildfires/37134362#
[Great news!]
*Action on climate change can provide a shot in the arm for the global
economy, economist says*
MON, JUL 26 2021
Jonathan Keane
Ramping up investment in policies and technologies to tackle climate
change could play a significant role in the global economy’s recovery
from the coronavirus pandemic.
In a recent note, Charles Dumas, chief economist at U.K.-based
investment research firm TS Lombard, said that action on climate change
is often criticized as moving too slowly. However, with governments
increasing spending to aid their post-Covid economies, they may start
catching up.
A key tenet of this is the ever-decreasing cost of electricity per
megawatt hour, according to figures from TS Lombard, with costs of
solar, offshore and onshore wind dropping over the last 10 years, while
gas and coal have remained largely the same.
“Effectively by 2030 the cost of renewable electricity is going to be
half that of coal and gas sourced electricity,” Dumas told CNBC.
These trends will bring many of the various pledges to reach net zero
more closely in sight...
- -
“Governments aren’t making the connections enough and traditionally
treasuries and particularly the ministries of transport are still
dominated by road building lobbies and people who like to build highways
and increase transport rather than people who want to invest in
sustainable alternatives.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/action-on-climate-change-can-boost-global-economy-economist-says.html
[I'm dubious, they will likely keep trying]
*As China Boomed, It Didn’t Take Climate Change Into Account. Now It Must.*
China’s breathtaking economic growth created cities ill-equipped to face
extreme weather. Last week’s dramatic floods showed that much will have
to change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/world/asia/china-climate-change.html
*
*
[another disinformation battleground]*
**As Jeff Bezos stresses climate change, Amazon promotes books saying
it’s fake*
BY BRIAN CONTRERAS
JULY 26, 2021
Soon after Jeff Bezos returned from the edge of space, the
billionaire-turned-astronaut delivered a warning to everyone he’d
briefly left behind on Earth.
“We live on this beautiful planet,” Amazon.com Inc.’s founder — and,
until recently, chief executive — said Tuesday. “When you get up there
and you see it, you see how tiny it is and how fragile it is.”
“We need to take all heavy industry, all polluting industry, and move it
into space,” he added, “and keep Earth as this beautiful gem of a planet
that it is.”
It’s a familiar sentiment from the world’s richest man, who’s made
environmentalism a central part of his public image. At an Amazon summit
last year, he said people who deny the reality of human-caused climate
change are “not being reasonable.”
Yet on the e-commerce platform he built, a very different message is
being sold — and getting boosted by the company’s own algorithms.
New research from the nonprofit investigative group Advance Democracy
has revealed that Amazon.com’s main search function — the “Sort by:
Featured” display option, which is the default way Amazon filters its
enormous catalog of products when customers go looking for something —
gives prominent real estate to books that downplay or outright deny the
reality of climate change.
Advance Democracy found that 20% of the top 60 search results for
“climate change” returned products containing “misinformation about
climate change,” including three of the first four sponsored results in
the main product list.
The nonprofit also found advertisements for climate-denialist books on
the product pages of more scientifically sound climate texts. For
instance, the “products related to this item” list underneath Bill
Gates’ “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster” included a sponsored link to
“Exploding the Myths of Climate Change: A Denier’s Viewpoint.” Under
Mike Berners-Lee’s “There Is No Planet B” was an ad for “Climate
Miracle: There is no climate crisis, Nature controls climate.”
The Times independently confirmed that climate denialist books appear
among the top Amazon results for generic searches such as “climate,”
“climate change” and “global warming,” as well as on the product pages
of mainstream climatological texts.
Advance Democracy said it conducted its research while using a virtual
private network and not logged into an Amazon account, in an attempt to
ensure that the algorithm’s recommendations wouldn’t be customized based
on who was doing the research. Amazon says it displays sponsored
products based on their relevance to a user’s search.
Advance Democracy’s findings show “that climate change misinformation is
prevalent, and even being promoted, on e-commerce sites,” Daniel Jones,
the organization’s president, told The Times in a written statement.
“Just this week, Amazon released a press release ‘encouraging more
companies to take action on climate change,’ while at the same time the
platform is profiting [from] and promoting climate change denialism on
its platform.”
Jones — a former Senate staffer who rose to national prominence for his
investigation of the CIA’s use of torture during the war on terror, as
portrayed by Adam Driver in the 2019 film “The Report” — added that “the
fact that if you search ‘climate’ … climate misinformation immediately
comes up is outrageous.”...
- -
Amazon and Bezos both have a mixed history when it comes to
environmentalism.
In February 2020, Bezos committed to spending $10 billion on the fight
against climate change; he has since set 2030 as the deadline for
dispensing all of that money...
- -
“Algorithms are killing the climate,” said Jamie Henn, the director of
the climate advocacy groups Fossil Free Media and Clean Creatives.
“The impact that Amazon has on society isn’t just in its factories and
trucks driving around our neighborhoods,” Henn added. “It’s in the way
that it shapes or warps the way people see the world.”
For Amazon users, that could mean seeing a version of the world at odds
with what climate scientists — and Jeff Bezos himself — agree is
actually happening.
https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2021-07-26/jeff-bezos-climate-change-amazon-promotes-hoax
[NPR learns from top climate scientist]
*How Climate Change Is Responsible For More Extreme Weather Events
Worldwide*
July 25, 2021
Heard on Weekend Edition Sunday
LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, HOST:
(6 min read or hear the audio
https://ondemand.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/wesun/2021/07/20210725_wesun_climate_scientist_on_extreme_heat.mp3?orgId=1&topicId=1165&d=384&p=10&story=1020342829&dl=1&sc=siteplayer&siteplayer=true&size=6150732&dl=1
)
Now, there is no reasonable question that climate change is fueling
these events and others around the globe, but there are questions about
the details - why, even though the big picture is clear, the local
effects of a warming planet are occasionally surprising. Michael Mann is
a distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Penn State
University, and the author of "The New Climate War: The Fight To Take
Back Our Planet." We turn to him now because, you know, he's got a
pretty good track record on climate predictions.
MICHAEL MANN: Well, it's a bit frustrating. As a climate scientist, the
last thing you want to see is your predictions come true. And
unfortunately, you know, despite the fact that decades ago we warned
that if we continue to add carbon pollution to the atmosphere through
the burning of fossil fuels that we would see not just an overall
warming of the planet, the melting of ice and sea level rise, but more
extreme weather events. And now the signal of climate change in the
weather has emerged from the noise. What that means is that we can
actually see climate change in the individual extreme weather events
that are playing out right now across the northern hemisphere this
summer. This is climate change.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Is this a tipping point? Because what we used to hear
about climate change is that these things will be happening 20 years in
the future, 30 years in the future if we don't take the actions
necessary. But what I'm reading from a lot of scientists is that this
has accelerated in a way that is surprising.
MANN: The warming of the planet is pretty much proceeding as predicted.
What's happening, though, is that some of the impacts are playing out
faster than we expected. And it has to do with the fact that our models
are imperfect. What we're seeing is that some of the impacts were
underestimated because our models, for example, didn't have all of the
critical processes involved in the collapse of ice sheets, which is so
important to sea level rise.
Another area is extreme weather events. Now, the models capture some of
the basic physics here that's relevant. You warm up the planet, of
course, you're going to get more frequent and intense heat waves. You
also have the potential for larger flooding events because the warm
atmosphere can hold more moisture. But at the same time, that extra heat
can dry out the ground and you get worse droughts.
But there's something else that's playing out with the events we've seen
this summer, and that has to do with the behavior of the jet stream, the
way the jet stream is slowing down and sort of getting stuck in place.
And so you have these big weather systems that just lie over the same
locations day after day - you know, on the West Coast, baking the soil,
the heat. Back east, we've had a lot of rainfall because we've been
stuck under sort of a low pressure center. And that is something that
the models didn't really pick up on. They didn't predict that we would
see this extra effect.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Who should be held responsible for the events that we're
seeing today? I mean, you've gotten a lot of backlash for your research
and outspoken criticism of corporations who contribute to high carbon
emissions.
MANN: Well, you know, let's take ExxonMobil. Back in the early 1980's,
their own scientists, in an internal document that wasn't released to
the public, actually referred to the consequences of business as usual,
fossil fuel burning as catastrophic. This isn't Al Gore. This isn't the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This isn't me and my fellow
climate scientists. This is ExxonMobil, the world's largest publicly
traded fossil fuel company. And rather than coming forward with what
their own scientists had found and engaging in a necessary conversation
about how to avert these risks, they doubled down. They ended up getting
rid of that research division, and they spent tens of millions of
dollars in a massive disinformation campaign.
And so make no mistake about it; the fossil fuel industry bears much of
the blame here. But there's enough blame to go around - politicians who
have refused to rein in the fossil fuel industry, bad actors who have
funded climate change denialism. It's what I call the inactivists, this
community of entities, individuals and groups that have been waging a
war against efforts to contend with the greatest challenge we face as a
civilization - the climate crisis.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: I mean, and now we're seeing pushback about spending on
climate change. Despite all the evidence, this is still politically toxic.
MANN: Yeah. We'll have to see what happens with this infrastructure bill
that's being discussed. There are some really important climate measures
in that bill. For example, a clean energy standard that would require
utilities to produce up to 80% of their electricity from clean sources
by 2030. And so there's some good stuff in that legislation. What
remains to be seen will be, you know, if it survives.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: If things do not get better, what can we expect next?
MANN: There are two paths. One is a path of destruction. The other road
is one where we do what's necessary, where we reduce carbon emissions by
a factor two within the next decade, where the countries of the world
come together. But that window is closing. We need to act now if we are
to go down that far better path.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Should we be watching for anything specific, like jet
stream changes or any other indicators that could tell us which path
we're headed on?
MANN: All eyes right now are on the behavior of the great ice sheets -
the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland ice sheet. As goes those ice
sheets, goes sea level rise. And in a worst-case scenario, we're looking
at meters of sea level rise over a timeframe as short as half a century.
The major cities, the coastal cities of the world will all be
threatened. Tens to hundreds of millions of people could be displaced.
So we have to make sure that we do everything we can to prevent that
from happening. And that means we've got to reduce those carbon
emissions dramatically.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Michael Mann is the distinguished professor of
atmospheric science at Penn State University. Thank you very much.
MANN: Thank you. It was a pleasure.
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/25/1020342829/how-climate-change-is-responsible-for-more-extreme-weather-events-worldwide
[recognizing risk]
*First-of-its-kind insurance report confronts climate risk*
http://blogs.edf.org/growingreturns/2021/07/23/insurance-report-climate-risk/
[NYTimes -- China calls it their Fifty-Cent Army]
*Disinformation for Hire, a Shadow Industry, Is Quietly Booming*
Back-alley firms meddle in elections and promote falsehoods on behalf of
clients who can claim deniability, escalating our era of unreality.
By Max Fisher - - July 25, 2021
In May, several French and German social media influencers received a
strange proposal.
A London-based public relations agency wanted to pay them to promote
messages on behalf of a client. A polished three-page document detailed
what to say and on which platforms to say it.
But it asked the influencers to push not beauty products or vacation
packages, as is typical, but falsehoods tarring Pfizer-BioNTech’s
Covid-19 vaccine. Stranger still, the agency, Fazze, claimed a London
address where there is no evidence any such company exists.
Some recipients posted screenshots of the offer. Exposed, Fazze scrubbed
its social media accounts. That same week, Brazilian and Indian
influencers posted videos echoing Fazze’s script to hundreds of
thousands of viewers.
The scheme appears to be part of a secretive industry that security
analysts and American officials say is exploding in scale:
disinformation for hire...
Private firms, straddling traditional marketing and the shadow world of
geopolitical influence operations, are selling services once conducted
principally by intelligence agencies.
They sow discord, meddle in elections, seed false narratives and push
viral conspiracies, mostly on social media. And they offer clients
something precious: deniability.
“Disinfo-for-hire actors being employed by government or
government-adjacent actors is growing and serious,” said Graham Brookie,
director of the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab,
calling it “a boom industry.”
Similar campaigns have been recently found promoting India’s ruling
party, Egyptian foreign policy aims and political figures in Bolivia and
Venezuela.
Mr. Brookie’s organization tracked one operating amid a mayoral race in
Serra, a small city in Brazil. An ideologically promiscuous Ukrainian
firm boosted several competing political parties...
- -
A wave of anti-American posts in Iraq, seemingly organic, were tracked
to a public relations company that was separately accused of faking
anti-government sentiment in Israel.
Most trace to back-alley firms whose legitimate services resemble those
of a bottom-rate marketer or email spammer...
- -
For-hire disinformation, though only sometimes effective, is growing
more sophisticated as practitioners iterate and learn. Experts say it is
becoming more common in every part of the world, outpacing operations
conducted directly by governments.
The result is an accelerating rise in polarizing conspiracies, phony
citizen groups and fabricated public sentiment, deteriorating our shared
reality beyond even the depths of recent years.
The trend emerged after the Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, experts
say. Cambridge, a political consulting firm linked to members of Donald
J. Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, was found to have harvested data
on millions of Facebook users.
The controversy drew attention to methods common among social media
marketers. Cambridge used its data to target hyper-specific audiences
with tailored messages. It tested what resonated by tracking likes and
shares.
The episode taught a generation of consultants and opportunists that
there was big money in social media marketing for political causes, all
disguised as organic activity.
Some newcomers eventually reached the same conclusion as Russian
operatives had in 2016: Disinformation performs especially well on
social platforms.
At the same time, backlash to Russia’s influence-peddling appeared to
have left governments wary of being caught — while also demonstrating
the power of such operations.
“There is, unfortunately, a huge market demand for disinformation,” Mr.
Brookie said, “and a lot of places across the ecosystem that are more
than willing to fill that demand.”
Commercial firms conducted for-hire disinformation in at least 48
countries last year — nearly double from the year before, according to
an Oxford University study. The researchers identified 65 companies
offering such services.
Last summer, Facebook removed a network of Bolivian citizen groups and
journalistic fact-checking organizations. It said the pages, which had
promoted falsehoods supporting the country’s right-wing government, were
fake.
Stanford University researchers traced the content to CLS Strategies, a
Washington-based communications firm that had registered as a consultant
with the Bolivian government. The firm had done similar work in
Venezuela and Mexico.
A spokesman referred to the company’s statement last year saying its
regional chief had been placed on leave but disputed Facebook’s
accusation that the work qualified as foreign interference.
*
**Eroding Reality*
New technology enables nearly anyone to get involved. Programs batch
generate fake accounts with hard-to-trace profile photos. Instant
metrics help to hone effective messaging. So does access to users’
personal data, which is easily purchased in bulk.
The campaigns are rarely as sophisticated as those by government hackers
or specialized firms like the Kremlin-backed Internet Research Agency.
But they appear to be cheap. In countries that mandate campaign finance
transparency, firms report billing tens of thousands of dollars for
campaigns that also include traditional consulting services.
The layer of deniability frees governments to sow disinformation more
aggressively, at home and abroad, than might otherwise be worth the
risk. Some contractors, when caught, have claimed they acted without
their client’s knowledge or only to win future business.
Platforms have stepped up efforts to root out coordinated
disinformation. Analysts especially credit Facebook, which publishes
detailed reports on campaigns it disrupts.
Still, some argue that social media companies also play a role in
worsening the threat. Engagement-boosting algorithms and design
elements, research finds, often privilege divisive and conspiratorial
content.
Political norms have also shifted. A generation of populist leaders,
like Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, has risen in part through
social media manipulation. Once in office, many institutionalize those
methods as tools of governance and foreign relations.
In India, dozens of government-run Twitter accounts have shared posts
from India Vs Disinformation, a website and set of social media feeds
that purport to fact-check news stories on India.
India Vs Disinformation is, in reality, the product of a Canadian
communications firm called Press Monitor.
Nearly all the posts seek to discredit or muddy reports unfavorable to
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, including on the country’s
severe Covid-19 toll. An associated site promotes pro-Modi narratives
under the guise of news articles.
A Digital Forensic Research Lab report investigating the network called
it “an important case study” in the rise of “disinformation campaigns in
democracies.”
A representative of Press Monitor, who would identify himself only as
Abhay, called the report completely false.
He specified only that it incorrectly identified his firm as
Canada-based. Asked why the company lists a Toronto address, a Canadian
tax registration and identifies as “part of Toronto’s thriving tech
ecosystem,” or why he had been reached on a Toronto phone number, he
said that he had business in many countries. He did not respond to an
email asking for clarification.
A LinkedIn profile for Abhay Aggarwal identifies him as the
Toronto-based chief executive of Press Monitor and says that the
company’s services are used by the Indian government.
*
**‘Spamouflage’*
A set of pro-Beijing operations hint at the field’s capacity for rapid
evolution.
Since 2019, Graphika, a digital research firm, has tracked a network it
nicknamed “Spamouflage” for its early reliance on spamming social
platforms with content echoing Beijing’s line on geopolitical issues.
Most posts received little or no engagement.
In recent months, however, the network has developed hundreds of
accounts with elaborate personas. Each has its own profile and posting
history that can seem authentic. They appeared to come from many
different countries and walks of life.
Graphika traced the accounts back to a Bangladeshi content farm that
created them in bulk and probably sold them to a third party.
The network pushes strident criticism of Hong Kong democracy activists
and American foreign policy. By coordinating without seeming to, it
created an appearance of organic shifts in public opinion — and often
won attention.
The accounts were amplified by a major media network in Panama,
prominent politicians in Pakistan and Chile, Chinese-language YouTube
pages, the left-wing British commentator George Galloway and a number of
Chinese diplomatic accounts.
A separate pro-Beijing network, uncovered by a Taiwanese investigative
outlet called The Reporter, operated hundreds of Chinese-language
websites and social media accounts.
Disguised as news sites and citizen groups, they promoted Taiwanese
reunification with mainland China and denigrated Hong Kong’s protesters.
The report found links between the pages and a Malaysia-based start-up
that offered web users Singapore dollars to promote the content.
But governments may find that outsourcing such shadowy work also carries
risks, Mr. Brookie said. For one, the firms are harder to control and
might veer into undesired messages or tactics...
For another, firms organized around deceit may be just as likely to turn
those energies toward their clients, bloating budgets and billing for
work that never gets done.
“The bottom line is that grifters are going to grift online,” he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/world/europe/disinformation-social-media.html
- -
[Here is the most trusted database of Misinformers]
*Climate Disinformation Database*
Welcome to DeSmog’s Climate Disinformation Database, where you can
browse our extensive research on the individuals and organizations that
have helped to delay and distract the public and our elected leaders
from taking needed action to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and fight
global warming.
https://www.desmog.com/climate-disinformation-database/
- -
[Another trusted database of known deceivers]
*SourceWatch*
The Center for Media and Democracy publishes SourceWatch to track
corporations.
We provide well-documented information about corporate public relations
(PR) campaigns, including corporate front groups, people who "front"
corporate campaigns, and PR operations.
Please visit SourceWatch's sister websites EXPOSEDbyCMD, to find our
investigations and original documents we release, PRWatch, to read our
original reporting, and ALECexposed, to see our award-winning
investigation of a corporate front group where corporate lobbyists
actually vote as equals with elected legislators on "model" legislation
to change our rights.
https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=SourceWatch
[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming July 27, 2006*
Climate scientist Michael Mann testifies before the House Committee on
Energy and Commerce regarding his scientific research--and the
transparently partisan efforts by climate-change deniers to undermine it.
http://youtu.be/8e2GlooAPkM
http://www.c-span.org/video/?193612-1/Methodo
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