[✔️] July 29, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
👀 Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Jul 29 08:02:35 EDT 2021
/*July 29, 2021*/
[daily fire newscast - mostly good news]
*Update and Forecast for Dixie Fire, Tamarack Fire, and Other Western
Wildfires*
7-28-2021 - 8 pm
Holt Hanley Weather - 6.03K subscribers
Mostly good news coming out for all of our Western Wildfires. Fire
weather conditions have been more favorable over the last few days,
leading to reduced fire behavior and increased containment. A number of
firing operations have been in place to clear out the fuels and continue
to secure the perimeter.
The big question mark over the last few days was how the thunderstorms
moving through the area would interact with our fires. We saw some gusty
winds pick up yesterday afternoon due to a thunderstorm, which delayed a
firing operation, but overall, this round of thunderstorms was much
better than the first round a week ago. We even picked up some decent
rainfall over our fires with this last round.
With that being said, we have more monsoonal moisture flowing in as we
edge toward the weekend, so we'll have to stay tuned as you never really
know how wildfires and thunderstorms will interact.
Throughout this video, we'll dive into all the important updates, as
well as the fire weather forecast to predict how all these wildfires may
change in the coming days.
You can subscribe to stay updated on all major wildfires throughout the
2021 season.
I hope this video was helpful, and thanks for watching.
- -
You can also check out my Twitter page where I post more concise updates
on the current wildfires:
https://twitter.com/HoltHanleyWX
Update and Forecast for Dixie Fire, Tamarack Fire, and Other Western
Wildfires - Chapters:
0:00 = Introduction
0:23 = Dixie Fire Update/Forecast
20:18 = Tamarack Fire Update/Forecast
29:40 = Air Quality Update
31:12 = Summary of Western Wildfires
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEHiQfK_tz0
- -
[Cough, cough]
*Heavy wildfire smoke linked to increased COVID-19 risk, researchers say*
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/565070-heavy-wildfire-smoke-linked-to-increased-covid-19-risk-researchers
- -
*From heavy metals to COVID-19, wildfire smoke is more dangerous than
you think*
https://bangordailynews.com/2021/07/26/news/nation/from-heavy-metals-to-covid-19-wildfire-smoke-is-more-dangerous-than-you-think/
[about the FERC - and the difference between subsidizing a business and
building a market]
*Volts podcast: Rep. Sean Casten on Hot FERC Summer*
Why this obscure federal agency is central to the Democrats' climate plans.
David Roberts
Listen in podcast app https://www.volts.wtf/account/add-podcast
As Volts subscribers are well aware, the fastest way to decarbonize the
US economy is through clean electrification — decarbonizing the
electricity sector and shifting energy use in other sectors like
transportation and buildings over to electricity.
How can the federal government help that process along? Most control
over power utilities and markets lies at the state level. There's only
one federal agency with real jurisdiction over electricity: the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC.
FERC is not an agency people many people follow, or even know about — in
fact, in the Volts household, it has become a kind of jokey shorthand
for "the boring stuff dad writes about."
But it could play a key role in implementing Biden's climate agenda. And
it has come to a crucial crossroads.
FERC has five commissioners. Currently, three are Republicans, but one
of them, Neil Chatterjee, came to the end of his term on June 30. He has
agreed to stay on temporarily because Biden, somewhat inexplicably, has
yet to formally nominate anyone to replace him. Until he does, and the
Senate confirms, the commission will not have a Democratic majority and
won’t be able to get anything big done.
That’s unfortunate, because FERC has lots of big decisions to make —
about transmission, electricity rates, and markets — with potentially
transformative consequences. But the agency moves slowly, with
rulemakings taking months or years, and it only has three and a half
years to get everything done. Biden needs to get someone in that seat.
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9004727-87f0-4cda-bb01-29431edf192d_3600x3600.jpeg
Enter Rep. Sean Casten. The Democrat from Illinois' 6th District, on the
west side of Chicago, is trying to draw attention to FERC and the
importance of a bold and climate-minded new commissioner. He’s leading a
communications campaign called "Hot FERC Summer," a twist on Megan Thee
Stallion's "Hot Girl Summer." (Hey, nobody said getting eyes on FERC was
easy.)
Casten, a member of the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis,
recently delivered a floor speech filled with Stallion-related puns of
varying cheesiness, calling on Biden and Dems to nominate and approve a
new commissioner quickly. He has also co-authored bills on transmission
siting and ratemaking that clarify and reinforce FERC's obligation to
take climate change into account in its decisions.
I have known Sean since the 2010s, when he was the CEO of a waste heat
recovery company called Recycled Energy Development. His long experience
in the clean energy industry informed some sharp analysis, and he
occasionally wrote guest posts for my blog at Grist, the environmental
news site I worked for at the time.
As you can imagine, it was a delight to see him win a seat in Congress
in 2018, bringing his deep energy expertise to a body that has often
lacked it. I was excited to geek out with him about FERC and the state
of congressional energy politics.
https://www.volts.wtf/p/volts-podcast-rep-sean-casten-on?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMzY4NzE5OSwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzkxNDU0MDMsIl8iOiJyNzJObSIsImlhdCI6MTYyNzQ5MzAyNiwiZXhwIjoxNjI3NDk2NjI2LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTkzMDI0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.xviSFsZKQkfgT2avN1DGkAbcQ9hajRyGlucaPhOjHwM&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#play
[the land, not the warehouse ]
*Amazon Near Climate Tipping Point*
Stream/download this segment as an MP3 file
https://loe.org/content/2021-07-23/LOE_210723_A1_Amazon%20Carbon%20Source.mp3
- -
COVEY: Yeah. So there's a lot of debate about what is exactly the
tipping point, do we get there at 40% deforestation from looking at
purely models about rainfall and evapotranspiration, and how much of the
rain comes through trees? How much has the effect of climate change, and
the increase of warming in the region? Does that make that tipping point
closer and it's 20%, or it's 25% deforestation? What we can say is that
we're at 17% deforestation right now. And that, we won't know that we've
crossed the tipping point until we're looking back at the other side of
it. And that's going to be a really bad spot to be in. What this newest
study can tell us is that we're seeing the kinds of changes in the
biophysical system that we would expect to see as we arrive at the
tipping point. And so in this southeastern portion of the Amazon, where
deforestation rates are in the thirty-percents, right, so the original
forest is cut, a third has been lost, what we're starting to see is,
again, larger than average warming in that region. We're seeing less
rainfall, and we're seeing the dry season extended. And so along with
that, the forest of the trees are suffering during the driest season.
And so we're seeing tree mortality. And those trees, which are dead then
can burn more easily. And so what we're seeing is the setup for a really
bad cyclical decline, where the degradation feeds further degradation,
which is exactly the concern of the tipping point. And so while we've
been looking at this and saying it's going to happen, it's going to
happen. Now we have good regional data for a portion of the Amazon that
says a lot of the things that we would expect to happen as we approach
the tipping point, a lot of those things that we would expect to happen
are starting to happen...
https://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=21-P13-00030&segmentID=1&mc_cid=3ec33bb068&mc_eid=c0e3fd9032
[DW report]
*Climate tipping points are now imminent, scientists warn*
Around 13,000 researchers have called for urgent action to slow down the
climate emergency as extreme weather patterns shock the world. They
listed three core measures.
Thousands of scientists reiterated calls for immediate action over the
climate crisis in an article published Wednesday in the journal BioScience.
"The extreme climate events and patterns that we've witnessed over the
last several years — not to mention the last several weeks — highlight
the heightened urgency with which we must address the climate crisis,"
said Philip Duffy, co-author of the study and executive director of the
Woodwell Climate Research Center in the US state of Massachusetts.
Two years ago, more than 10,000 scientists from around 150 countries
jointly declared a global climate emergency. They are now joined by over
2,800 more signatories in urging the protection of life on Earth. ..
Since the 2019 declaration, Earth has seen an "unprecedented surge" in
climate-related disasters, researchers noted.
What are the signs?
For the study, researchers relied on "vital signs" to measure planetary
health, including greenhouse gas emissions, glacier thickness, sea-ice
extent and deforestation. Out of 31 signs, scientists found that 18 hit
record highs or lows.
The year 2020 was the second-hottest year since records began,
scientists said. And earlier this year, the carbon dioxide concentration
in the Earth's atmosphere was higher than at any time since measurements
began.
The authors noted that all-time low levels of ice mass have been
recorded in Greenland and Antarctica. Glaciers are melting 31% faster
than they did just 15 years ago, they added.
Meanwhile, the annual loss rate of the Brazilian Amazon reached a
12-year high in 2020.
https://www.dw.com/en/climate-tipping-points-are-now-imminent-scientists-warn/a-58665256
[Yikes]
*‘Adapt or We’ll Break’: A Water Expert Lays Out the West’s Risky Future
in the Megadrought Era*
"Eventually, we’ll either have to adapt, or we’ll break."
Molly Taft - July 28, 2021
The West’s megadrought has produced no shortage of terrible stories.
Drought conditions have enveloped 90% of the region, leading to record
low water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest
reservoirs in the U.S., as well as countless other smaller water systems
throughout the region.
The impacts have extended beyond manmade bodies of water, though. Rivers
and other lakes in the region have run hot and dry, endangering
wildlife. And forests have been charred by wildfires, running the risk
of befouling lakes and streams.
All of these are indicators that the West’s water supplies and
burgeoning population are on a collision course. Factoring in climate
change, which is expected to make the region’s precipitation more
erratic and lead to heat that will further strain water resources, and
it’s clear the situation is pretty dire. But these are huge forces, and
it can be hard to understand what all this actually means.
- -
Another interesting thing—the biggest crop we grow in the U.S. is grass.
Not the grass the cows are munching on, but the grass that you or I
might have in our backyard, that we’re watering, we’re not eating. It’s
crazy that we are using this much water to grow something that we don’t
even need.
Earther: I remember the last time California was in a drought, there
were water restrictions in Los Angeles that came with fines, but the
rich people who wanted to keep their lawns just went ahead and did it,
and some of them were able to pay the high fines for it. It does seem
like in the system as it stands, there are a whole lot of possibilities
for water to be something that people who can pay for it can still
access water in abundance.
Ajami: Yeah, and that’s a great point. We have to talk about equity and
justice and access—should people who can pay for grass be allowed to
have grass? At the end of the day, that’s sort of how we’re paying for
electricity—people who can afford to have 50 different TVs in their
homes, they’re paying the bill, but not everybody needs to or wants to
do that. The reality is, just because we don’t want to promote extreme
use doesn’t mean we shouldn’t charge people more. Right now, what we’re
doing with the cost of water is that not only are we not charging people
properly, but we’re not helping low-income communities either because we
don’t have the resources to invest in systems that they need.
Earther: What sort of changes do you foresee in folks’s everyday life as
the drought gets worse?
Ajami: There’s a wish list and actual trends. People who are building a
lot of new tech campuses are doing a lot to recycle water. There are
discussions around the price of water, there are discussions around
doing more with drain water systems, there are a lot of efforts around
conservation efficiency, lots of efforts to clean up polluted
groundwater basins. That’s another crazy thing—we never used to care
about our groundwater. Industrial activities have polluted groundwater
supplies because we never thought we would need them. California and
some of the Western states that didn’t used to have groundwater laws are
making groundwater laws. Quality is becoming more and more of an issue.
There’s a lot of effort to maintain the quality of water, making sure we
can preserve the quality of lakes and bays and water bodies.
Some of these actions are actually happening, but one thing on my wish
list, I would love to see people thinking about how development today is
impacting our water footprint of the future. You can rethink the
not-very-efficient system we have and start building for the future,
rather than doing the same thing over and over and complaining about the
results.
- -
Earther: It sounds like our water system is incredibly inefficient and
wasteful. But even if we tighten up the system, make sure we’re using
everything and really reusing water as much as possible, can the West as
a region support the amount of pressure we put on it, once you add in
climate change? Is that something you think about?
Ajami: Yes, I do think about that.
Earther: Sorry, grim thoughts are my specialty.
Ajami: No, it’s a great question. Eventually, we’ll either have to
adapt, or we’ll break. If you talk about drought, drought is our new
normal. It’s not a drought anymore. We have to shift that mindset and
say, drought is a normal thing, it’s our reality. If we have a wet year,
we have to think about how we can protect and cache as much water as we
can, store as much water as we can to help our system recover.
The West can survive if it shifts its mindset, changes the way we manage
water, changes the way we approach drought, changes wildfire management
and flood season, changes how we manage between the environment and
built systems, how much we charge for water. If we really can embrace
all these things in a systematic way, we might be able to survive. If we
continue on in treating groundwater as an endless system we can just tap
into and use, arguing over “oh should we monitor or not monitor, people
really want to have freedom of choice”—that’s never going to survive.
We’re never going to survive. A bunch of people are going to keep using
and abusing the system.
We have a path in front of us and we know the things we need to fix. If
we don’t, I don’t know if we can survive.
https://gizmodo.com/adapt-or-we-ll-break-a-water-expert-lays-out-the-wes-1847376800
[video talk of rapid changes]
*The Arctic, Maine and the First Abrupt Climate Change Event in the
Modern Era*
Mar 24, 2021
Blue Hill Heritage Trust BHHT
In recent decades human activity has become the major driver of climate
change. The Arctic has thus far experienced the greatest change and the
impact has spread throughout the Northern Hemisphere resulting in a fast
transition to a new climate state and significant climate instability.
The impacts of climate change are one of the greatest security threats
of this century. Maine is and will continue to experience climate
change, but with good planning Maine could be well placed to both deal
with and positively build upon change. Paul Andrew Mayewski, Director
and Professor of the Climate Change Institute at the University of
Maine, is an internationally acclaimed glaciologist, climate scientist
and polar explorer. He has led over 60 expeditions to the remotest
regions of the planet and made significant contributions to climate
science that are documented in 500 scientific publications, two popular
books and hundreds of major media appearances.
This is a recording from a live Friends from the Field Webinar that was
presented on March 18th, 2021.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTYSJ9B6Pm8
[hot temps]
*Extreme Heat Waves in a Warming World Don’t Just Break Records – They
Shatter Them*
By Scott Denning - -27 July 2021
Scientists have warned for over 50 years about increases in extreme
events arising from subtle changes in average climate, but many people
have been shocked by the ferocity of recent weather disasters. We need
to understand two things about climate change’s role in extreme weather
like this: First, humans have pumped so much carbon dioxide and other
planet-warming greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that what’s “normal”
has shifted. Second, not every extreme weather event is connected to
global warming.
Summer isn’t even half over, and we’ve seen heat waves in the Pacific
Northwest and Canada with temperatures that would be hot for Death
Valley, enormous fires that have sent smoke across North America, and
lethal floods of biblical proportions in Germany and China. Scientists
have warned for over 50 years about increases in extreme events arising
from subtle changes in average climate, but many people have been
shocked by the ferocity of recent weather disasters.
A couple of things are important to understand about climate change’s
role in extreme weather like this.
First, humans have pumped so much carbon dioxide and other
planet-warming greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that what’s “normal”
has shifted. A new study, published July 26, 2021, for example, shows
how record-shattering, long-lasting heat waves – those that break
records by a wide margin – are growing increasingly likely, and that the
rate of global warming is connected with the increasing chances of these
heat extremes.
Second, not every extreme weather event is connected to global warming.
Shifting the Bell Curve
Like so many things, temperature statistics follow a bell curve –
mathematicians call these “normal distributions.” The most frequent and
likely temperatures are near the average, and values farther from the
average quickly become much less likely.
All else being equal, a little bit of warming shifts the bell to the
right – toward higher temperatures [watch on YouTube]. Even a shift of
just a few degrees makes the really unlikely temperatures in the extreme
“tail” of the bell happen dramatically more often.
The stream of broken temperature records in the North American West
lately is a great example. Portland hit 116 degrees – 9 degrees above
its record before the heat wave. That would be an extreme at the end of
the tail. One study determined the heat wave would have been “virtually
impossible” without human-caused climate change. Extreme heat waves that
were once ridiculously improbable are on their way to becoming more
commonplace, and unimaginable events are becoming possible.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/extreme-heat-waves-in-a-warming-world-dont-just-break-records-they-shatter-them
[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming July 29, 2008*
MSNBC's Keith Olbermann covers "...the headlines breaking in the
administration‘s 50 running scandals—Bushed.
"Number three: Blood for oil-gate. Remember when the people who said
the Iraq war was designed to benefit the oil industry? The Republicans
responded by calling those people 'tinfoil hat' conspiracy theorists.
And then the Republicans started saying we have to stay in Iraq because
otherwise al Qaeda might get the oil and raise the price of gas.
"Well, the pretext is officially at an end! Richard Perle, one of the
architects of the invasion of Iraq is, according to the Murdoch Street
Journal, trying to invest in an oil drilling deal with the Kurds of Iraq
even though the Bush administration is on record opposing any oil deals
with the Kurds until the Iraq government straightens out which group
owns what oil fields in Iraq."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78ro5f7x4cM
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