[TheClimate.Vote] March 6, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Mar 6 11:11:48 EST 2021
/*March 6, 2021*/
[NPR prints an articles that it doesn't want to speak]
*Study Finds Wildfire Smoke More Harmful To Humans Than Pollution From Cars*
March 5, 2021
Nathan Rott at NPR headquarters in Washington, D.C., September 27, 2018.
Tens of millions of Americans experienced at least a day last year
shrouded in wildfire smoke. Entire cities were blanketed, in some cases
for weeks, as unprecedented wildfires tore across the Western U.S.,
causing increases in hospitalizations for respiratory emergencies and
concerns about people's longer-term health.
A new study finds those concerns are well founded.
- -
An NPR analysis of air quality on the West Coast found that 1-in-7
residents experienced at least one day of unhealthy air conditions last
year. For weeks, the smoke was so thick in parts of Oregon, Washington
and California that public health officials urged people to stay indoors
and avoid physical activities. That smoke drifted east, creating hazy
skies and an oddly vibrant sun as far away as the East Coast.
The research focused on microscopic particles, commonly called PM2.5,
which can travel the longest distances.
Roughly one-twentieth the diameter of a human hair, PM2.5 particles are
among the main components of wildfire smoke. They pose a health risk to
people because they're able to pass through the nose and lungs,
bypassing the body's defense mechanisms, as they make their way into the
bloodstream. From there they can harm the heart, lungs and other vital
organs, increasing the risk of stroke, heart attacks and respiratory
problems.
There are a number of sources of PM2.5, including power plants and
vehicles, but the findings indicate that PM2.5 from some may be more
harmful than others.
- -
"We've seen it getting much worse in the last decade," Corringham says.
"Anything we can do today to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
stabilize the global climate system will have significant benefits."
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/03/05/973848360/study-finds-wildfire-smoke-more-harmful-to-humans-than-pollution-from-cars
- -
[Source material]
Published: 05 March 2021
*Wildfire smoke impacts respiratory health more than fine particles from
other sources: observational evidence from Southern California*
Nature Communications
Abstract
Wildfires are becoming more frequent and destructive in a changing
climate. Fine particulate matter, PM2.5, in wildfire smoke adversely
impacts human health. Recent toxicological studies suggest that
wildfire particulate matter may be more toxic than equal doses of
ambient PM2.5. Air quality regulations however assume that the
toxicity of PM2.5 does not vary across different sources of
emission. Assessing whether PM2.5 from wildfires is more or less
harmful than PM2.5 from other sources is a pressing public health
concern. Here, we isolate the wildfire-specific PM2.5 using a series
of statistical approaches and exposure definitions. We found
increases in respiratory hospitalizations ranging from 1.3 to up to
10% with a 10 μg m−3 increase in wildfire-specific PM2.5, compared
to 0.67 to 1.3% associated with non-wildfire PM2.5. Our conclusions
point to the need for air quality policies to consider the
variability in PM2.5 impacts on human health according to the
sources of emission.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21708-0
- -
/[In early September 2020, Seattle, Wash., had some of the worst air
quality in the world because of wildfire smoke./
[Fossil Fuels push back]
*A Furious Industry Backlash Greets Moves by California Cities to Ban
Natural Gas in New Construction*
Gas bans and restrictions, and the industry pushback, is part of a
battle on many fronts over the future of natural gas in homes and
businesses.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05032021/gas-industry-fights-bans-in-homes-businesses/
[Texas freeze explained in video by VOX]
*Texas's power disaster is a warning sign for the US*
Mar 4, 2021
Vox
America's power grid is not ready.
In February, extreme cold and an unusual winter storm left millions of
Texans in the dark. Many went without power or water, in subzero
temperatures, for nearly five days. It was a disaster; dozens died. But
even though that storm hit much of the country, the power outages were
mostly limited to Texas. That’s because Texas is on its own electrical
grid, separate from the rest of the country, which means it can’t easily
get power from other states in an emergency.
But Texas's grid itself is not what failed. Power went out across Texas
in the first place because energy sources across the state were
unprepared for severe weather. And that didn’t have to happen; Texas had
been warned about this exact scenario, and had actually experienced
versions of it twice in the last 30 years. But they didn’t prepare.
Now the rest of the US faces the same issue. Climate change is making
severe weather disasters more and more frequent. And the American energy
system is not ready for it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcrsgdl_hP0
[Courthouse News Service]
*Nuisance Flooding Worsening as Seas, Tides Rise*
March 5, 2021 DANIEL CONRAD
Rising sea levels aren’t the only reason U.S. coasts are seeing
low-intensity flooding more often – estuary changes driven by coastline
development have also caused higher tides to spill inland.
(CN) — So-called nuisance flooding is happening more frequently in
coastal cities in the continental U.S., and researchers have found that
rising sea levels and coastal development have caused more high tides to
result in such flooding in recent years compared to the 19th and early
20th centuries.
Nuisance flooding, also known as tidal flooding or sunny day flooding,
is more destructive than its name might imply. The term refers to the
minor floods that occur in low-elevation coastal cities, where high
tides can swamp streets, drainage infrastructure, businesses and
residences, adding to the millions of dollars in damages floods cause
yearly.
Using historic water-level information obtained from 40 tide gauges that
have been making observations for at least 70 years apiece, a group of
climate scientists were able to compare past tidal data to contemporary
changes in the tides.
“It’s the first time that the effects of tidal changes on nuisance
flooding were quantified, and the approach is very robust as it is based
purely on observational data and covers the entire coastline of the U.S.
mainland,” said Thomas Wahl, co-author of a study published Friday in
the journal Science Advances and assistant professor of civil and
environmental engineering at the University of Central Florida...
https://www.courthousenews.com/nuisance-flooding-worsening-as-seas-tides-rise/
- -
[Source matter]
RESEARCH ARTICLE OCEANOGRAPHY
*Evolving tides aggravate nuisance flooding along the U.S. coastline*
Abstract
Nuisance flooding (NF) is defined as minor, nondestructive flooding that
causes substantial, accumulating socioeconomic impacts to coastal
communities. While sea-level rise is the main driver for the observed
increase in NF events in the United States, we show here that secular
changes in tides also contribute. An analysis of 40 tidal gauge records
from U.S. coasts finds that, at 18 locations, NF increased due to tidal
amplification, while decreases in tidal range suppressed NF at 11
locations. Estuaries show the largest changes in NF attributable to tide
changes, and these can often be traced to anthropogenic alterations.
Limited long-term measurements from estuaries suggest that the effects
of evolving tides are more widespread than the locations considered
here. The total number of NF days caused by tidal changes has increased
at an exponential rate since 1950, adding ~27% to the total number of NF
events observed in 2019 across locations with tidal amplification.
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/10/eabe2412
- -
[video press conference]
*WATCH: Miami-Dade Mayor discusses sea-level rise strategy*
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, Fla. – Mayor Daniella Levine Cava held a news
conference Friday morning to unveil Miami-Dade County’s sea-level rise
strategy.
She was joined by Commissioner Rebeca Sosa, Clerk of Courts Harvey
Ruvin, Chief Resilience Officer Jim Murley, Dr. Carolina Maran of the
South Florida Water Management District, and Village of El Portal Mayor
Omarr C. Nickerson.
https://www.local10.com/news/local/2021/02/26/watch-live-miami-dade-mayor-unveils-sea-level-rise-strategy/
[FEWS NET = Famine Early Warning Systems Network]
Global Weather Hazards
*Abnormal dryness and drought persist in parts of Southern Africa*
https://fews.net/global/global-weather-hazards/march-5-2021
Download report for this month:
https://fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/Global%20Weather%20Hazards%203.05.2021.pdf
[Upcoming legal discussion]
March 18, 2021
*Accountability for Climate Change Harms in the Pacific Northwest:
Scientific, Policy and Legal Perspectives*
Green Energy Institute - 12:00pm - 1:15pm PDT
Join Lewis & Clark Law School’s Green Energy Institute, the Center for
Climate Integrity, and Breach Collective in a discussion of the extent
of climate harms in the Pacific Northwest, the scientific basis for
holding the fossil fuel industry accountable, and legal and community
perspectives on climate litigation.
From coast to coast, 18 municipalities, five states, the District of
Columbia and one industry trade association have filed suit against the
world’s largest investor-owned fossil fuel companies for deceiving
consumers, policymakers, the media and the public at large about the
dangerous climate impacts their products would cause.
You are invited to learn about this growing trend of climate damages and
fraud litigation in the United States.
After opening remarks from Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum and
Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson, Lewis & Clark Law School’s
Professor Melissa Powers will moderate a discussion among the following
panelists:
Karen Shell, Associate Professor and Climate Science Program Head of the
College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University
Deborah Kafoury, Multnomah County Commissioner
Daniel Mensher, attorney at Keller Rohrback
https://law.lclark.edu/calendars/law-calendar/#!view/event/event_id/327542
[Get ready for summer]
*New climate ‘normal’ for Atlantic hurricanes shows more frequent and
intense storms*
The past 30 years have seen record levels of hurricane activity.
By Matthew Cappucci and Andrew Freedman
March 3, 2021
Every 10 years, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration revises the baseline of what weather and climate
conditions are considered “normal.” The most recent normals for Atlantic
hurricane activity will soon be released, and a preview reveals a spike
in storm frequency and intensity.
During the most recent 30-year period, which spans 1991 to 2020, there
has been an uptick in the number of named storms and an increase in the
frequency of major hurricanes of category 3 intensity or greater in the
Atlantic.
NOAA mulls moving start of Atlantic hurricane season up to May 15
That comes as no surprise amid a spate of extreme hurricane activity
that has featured seven Category 5 storms swirling across Atlantic
waters in just the past five years.
The newly revised climate normals aren’t a forecast of upcoming
activity, nor are they necessarily illustrative of any one particular
climate or meteorological trend. They’re simply benchmark values
The National Weather Service calculates new climate normals each decade
for all major U.S. cities with sufficient historical data. When you hear
your local television meteorologist describe a day as “10 degrees above
average,” for instance, this data is where that comes from...
The new hurricane normals are not official yet, though available data
clearly shows an uptick in storm frequency and intensity, likely related
to a combination of climate change, natural variability and improved
storm detection...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/03/hurricanes-atlantic-climate-normal/
- -
[Bloomberg Green]
*A 20-Year-Old Climate Mystery Has Finally Been Explained*
Penn State professor Michael Mann thought he’d discovered an ocean
temperature phenomenon. Now he’s sure—that it doesn’t exist.
Michael Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science at
Pennsylvania State University, came up with a novel term 20 years ago to
describe something he and his colleagues had found in their research.
About every half-century, wind and waves conspired to warm up or cool
down part of the North Atlantic, with probable large-scale effects on
weather. Drawing on the same Earth simulations on which most climate
research was then based, they concluded that the back-and-forth swing
must be a feature intrinsic to the natural system itself. Mann dubbed it
the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,” or AMO.
Since then, the AMO has become a commonly recognized feature of
meteorology, similar to the occasional temperature flips in the tropical
Pacific that mark warm El Niño or cool La Niña episodes but with smaller
significance, and thought to influence the strength of Atlantic hurricanes.
Only here’s the thing—the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation turns out
not to actually exist. That’s the latest and definitive conclusion now
from Mann and three colleagues, who write in the journal Science that
the newest climate models can no longer find any evidence of a natural
temperature flip in the Atlantic every few decades...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-04/a-20-year-old-climate-change-mystery-has-finally-been-explained
- -
[Serious climate science - self correcting]
*The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”*
{Mike Mann - 4 March 2021}
Two decades ago, in an interview with science journalist Richard Kerr
for the journal Science, I coined the term the “Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation” (AMO) to describe an internal oscillation in the climate
system resulting from interactions between North Atlantic ocean currents
and wind patterns. These interactions were thought to lead to
alternating decades-long intervals of warming and cooling centered in
the extra-tropical North Atlantic that play out on 40-60 year timescales
(hence the name). Think of the purported AMO as a much slower relative
of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a longer timescale of
oscillation (multidecadal rather than interannual) and centered in a
different region (the North Atlantic rather than the tropical Pacific).
Today, in a research article published in the same journal Science, my
colleagues and I have provided what we consider to be the most
definitive evidence yet that the AMO doesn’t actually exist...
- -
*Analysis of Historical and Control Simulations*
In an article we published a year ago, we showed that the AMO does not
in general exist in current generation models. We analyzed a set of long
control simulations with more than 40 different state-of-the-art climate
model simulations from the CMIP5 multimodel climate archive. We used a
type of “spectral analysis”, a statistical procedure that identifies
whether there is evidence for truly oscillatory variability (in the form
of a spectral “peak”, i.e. a spike in the plot of amplitude of variation
as a function of frequency/period) at some particular timescale or
narrow range of timescales. The “MTM-SVD” method identifies whether an
entire spatiotemporal dataset contains an oscillatory signal (as
indicated by a spectral peak that is correlated across the dataset, in
this case, surface temperatures spanning the globe) that is distinct
from simple background noise (i.e. random variability).
- -
*Concluding Thoughts*
There are several lessons in this tale. One is that scientists must
always be open to revising past thinking. That is part of the critical
scientific process—what the great Carl Sagan referred to as the
“self-correcting machinery” of science. Two decades ago there seemed to
be both observational evidence and modeling evidence (if rather limited)
for the existence of a multidecadal AMO in the climate system. My own
work supported that interpretation, and indeed it was I who gave this
beast a name. The scientific community ran with the concept, and
numerous scientists—even some at our leading research laboratories like
the aforementioned GFDL—continued to misapply it in a way that downplays
some critical climate change impacts like the warming of the North
Atlantic and the increase in Atlantic hurricane activity associated with it.
Now we have come full circle. My collaborators and I, over the past
decade, have continued to investigate the origins of the putative AMO
signal and have been led inescapably to the conclusion that the AMO
(unlike, say, R.O.U.S.) doesn’t actually exist. It’s an artifact, during
the historical era, of competing anthropogenic (greenhouse warming and
sulphate aerosol cooling) drivers and, during the earlier period, an
artifact of the fact that volcanic forcing happens to have displayed a
roughly multidecadal pacing in past centuries.
A scientist has to admit when they are wrong. Unfortunately for all of
us, my colleagues and I weren’t wrong about the unprecedented warming
revealed by the now iconic “Hockey Stick” curve, despite the unrelenting
attacks on it by climate change deniers over the past two decades.
But I was wrong about the existence an internal AMO oscillation when I
coined the term twenty years ago.
Nonetheless, some very good science has been done by a number of
researchers and groups around the world in pursuing this matter. And we
have learned quite a bit, for example, about the true origins of
multidecadal climate variability, and prospects for long-term climate
prediction.
That, in fact, is science (and Science) working the way it’s supposed to.
more at -
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2021/03/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation/
- -
[source material]
*Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by
volcanic forcing*
View ORCID ProfileMichael E. Mann1,*, View ORCID ProfileByron A.
Steinman2, View ORCID ProfileDaniel J. Brouillette1, View ORCID
ProfileSonya K. Miller1
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6533/1014.full
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - March 6, 2001 *
EPA Administrator Christine Todd Whitman sends a memo to President
George W. Bush urging him to demonstrate leadership on climate change.
The memo is summarily ignored.
*Whitman to Bush: Global Warming Is Serious Issue*
In a private memo to President Bush, EPA chief Christine Todd Whitman
urged him to recognize global warming as a serious international issue
-- just days before the president reneged on his campaign pledge to cut
carbon dioxide emissions at the nation's power plants. The full text of
the memo follows:
UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
March 6, 2001 -
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM: CHRISTIE WHITMAN
SUBJECT: G-8 MEETING, TRIESTE
Having just returned from Italy and the G-8 meeting I thought I
would pass on a few observations of the International Community and
global climate change.
First: This was a precursor to two meetings to which you and other
heads of state will be invited: Bonn in July and Johannesburg in
2002. It is safe to assume that there will be head of state
participation in at least one if not both meetings.
Second: The World Community (EU; Umbrella group made up of US,
Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Norway, Iceland, Russia,
Ukraine, and Kazakhstan (as an observer); and the G-77 or developing
countries) are all convinced of the seriousness of this issues and
the need to act now.
Third: The Kyoto Protocol is the only game in town in their eyes.
There is a real fear in the international community that if the US
is not willing to discuss the issue within the framework of Kyoto
the whole thing will fall apart. They feel that they can move ahead
toward their goals on their own, but would need the U.S. to really
get things done.
Fourth: For the first time the world's religious communities have
started to engage in the issue. Their solutions vary widely, but the
fervor of the focus was clear. Of course this has been an issue for
the NGOs for awhile.
As you can see from the attached highlighted clips, I had varied
success in buying us time to fully engage in these discussions. From
a political perspective I believe that we are in a position to build
some good will while not endorsing the specifics of Kyoto.
Expectations are low for this Administration.
I would strongly recommend that you continue to recognize that
global warming is a real, and serious issues.
While not specifically endorsing the targets called for in Kyoto,
you could indicate that you are exploring how to reduce U.S.
Greenhouse gas emissions internally and will continue to do so no
matter what else transpires.
Mr. President, this is a credibility issue (global warming) for the
U.S. in the international Community. It is also an issue that is
resonating here, at home. We need to appear engaged and shift the
discussion from the focus on the "K" word to action, but we have to
build some boneifides first.
We did win some issues at this meeting i.e., recognizing cost,
promoting children's health, and fending off some last minute end
runs by the Germans and Japanese.
I'm available to discuss this further if you want.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/whitmanmemo032601.htm
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