[TheClimate.Vote] March 23, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Mar 23 11:00:24 EDT 2021
/*March 23, 2021*/
[fresh applications - text and audio]
*NOAA Upgrades Forecasts As Climate Change Drives More Severe Storms*
March 22, 2021
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration upgraded the
computer model that forecasters use to predict the weather one to two
weeks in the future, called the Global Forecast System. The new model is
better at predicting where hurricanes will form and how intense they
will be as well as where and when snowstorms and rainstorms will occur,
and how much precipitation will fall.
"This is going to have a fundamental impact on the forecasts that are
provided day to day," says Louis Uccellini, director of the National
Weather Service.
Climate change is driving more severe weather across the country. In
recent years, Americans have experienced record-breaking hurricanes,
wildfires, heat waves and rainstorms. In many cases, federal weather
forecasts have not provided accurate information.
The most striking example was in 2012 when the model was slow to predict
that Hurricane Sandy was going to make landfall. During the 2019
hurricane season, the federal weather model underperformed the European
Union's forecast model when it came to predicting where hurricanes would
make landfall. And just this month the model incorrectly predicted how
much precipitation would fall in a snowstorm that hit the Boulder,
Colo., area.
Inaccurate federal forecasts are dangerous because most weather apps,
websites and television weather reports rely on the government information.
In tests, the upgraded weather model performed better than its
predecessor. "Improvements are pretty significant for this upgrade,"
says Vijay Tallapragada, the head of the Modeling and Data Assimilation
Branch for NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center.
His team tested the new model against past weather events to see how it
would have performed. The team found that the new model predicted the
recent Colorado snowstorm nearly a day earlier and was more precise
about where snow would be most intense.
When it comes to protecting lives and property, however, hurricane
forecasts are particularly important. The new model appears to be
noticeably better at predicting where hurricanes will make landfall. "We
found about a 10[%] to 15% improvement in tropical cyclone track and
intensity in the Atlantic Basin," Tallapragada says.
That adds up to about 36 hours of extra lead time for residents in the
storm's path. "These improvements are pretty prominent," he says.
The upgraded model relies on supercomputers in Virginia and Florida as
well as software upgrades that allow the model to use more information
from satellites and aircraft.
It is also the first time federal weather forecasts will use data
collected in the upper atmosphere. Until now, NOAA's weather model
didn't include what is happening in the top layers of the atmosphere.
That's a problem because the entire atmosphere is one continuous system,
and what happens up high affects weather near the surface. For example,
temperature changes in the stratosphere can affect the jet stream — the
river of air that snakes across the United States and carries weather
systems with it.
https://www.npr.org/2021/03/22/979932115/noaa-upgrades-forecasts-as-climate-change-drives-more-severe-storms
[The MET Office in England supposedly uses faster, bigger computers ]
[Ooops new changes]
*We’re underestimating the destructive power of tornadoes, study shows*
Many are at least a category stronger than their ratings have suggested,
analysis finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/22/tornado-power-underestimated-study/
[Hot and dry]
*Arizona's 2021 wildfire season expected to have 'very severe potential'*
Gov. Doug Ducey and fire officials announced Monday that the upcoming
wildfire season is expected to be similar to 2020, which was reported as
the second-worst wildfire season in Arizona.
"We have more vegetation on the ground this year that can act as a fuel
for wildfires, so we’re already seeing a heightened risk to our
communities," Ducey said in a news conference Monday.
Last year, 2,520 wildfires burned nearly 1 million acres across state,
federal and tribal lands and was one of the worst fire seasons in a
decade, according to the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire
Management. More than 80% of the fires were human-caused, but fire
officials say vegetation overgrowth, an ongoing drought and lack of rain
during the monsoon season also contributed to the increase in fires.
The Bush Fire became the state's fifth-largest fire after it burned
193,000 acres in Tonto National Forest...
- -
New initiative will train over 700 Arizona inmates to help prevent wildfires
The news conference with fire and state agencies came after Ducey signed
the Arizona Healthy Forest Initiative in March to increase the number of
people working to prevent fires in the state. The new $24 million
multi-agency initiative will train more than 700 Arizona inmates to help
prevent wildfires and create partnerships to reduce wildfire fuels.
"The Arizona Healthy Forest Initiative not only promotes a healthier and
safer Arizona, but it also deeply expands the rehabilitative
opportunities, which enhance offender’s post-incarceration successful
reentry and transition back into our community," said Arizona Department
of Corrections, Rehabilitation and Reentry Director David Shinn at the
conference.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-wildfires/2021/03/22/arizona-wildfire-outlook-2021-severe-potential-due-drought/4801470001/
[The Hill - on the US Chamber of Commerce - traditionally a strong
denialist organization]
*Indicators to watch as the Chamber's new leader approaches climate
change policy*
BY KEVIN MOSS, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 03/22/21
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the most powerful business lobbying group
in the country, brought on a new leader two weeks ago. With that change,
the Chamber opened a window for a new approach to climate policy.
Suzanne Clark takes the helm as CEO after 24 years of leadership by Tom
Donohue, whose tenure was often marked by aggressive opposition to
climate action. The signals Clark sends in her early days will be
important, including whether she will lead the century-old institution
to join the momentum building in businesses across the country to
address climate change.
Clark won’t be starting from scratch. In 2017, the Chamber created a
position for a vice president of environmental affairs and
sustainability and created a Task Force on Climate Action. Her
predecessor, Donohue, began to shift his narrative on climate change in
recent years, saying that “inaction is not an option,” also reflected on
the Chamber’s website. In January, the Chamber indicated general support
for a market-based carbon policy but conditioned by a long list of
limitations.
Now, Clark can turn the Chamber’s words into action. Doing so would
align the Chamber with a growing number of major businesses that have
adopted science-based emissions targets and with the majority of the
U.S. population, which supports climate action.
Here are four indicators to watch for:
*Will the Chamber take a consistent stance on climate policy? *
In 2020, the Chamber supported legislation to phase down use of
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a type of greenhouse gas (GHG). But nearly
simultaneously, it filed an amicus brief in the Court of Appeals for the
District of Columbia Circuit to back the Trump administration’s rollback
of federal vehicle emission standards. Clark should establish and
consistently apply a science-based policy agenda to address the climate
crisis.
*Will the Chamber represent all of its members? *
The Chamber disproportionately represents fossil fuel interests. But a
large number of Chamber members pursue climate action, including those
that are party to America’s Pledge, an agreement signed by a broad range
of local governments, businesses and others to help the U.S. reach its
Paris Agreement goals. The Chamber’s membership also includes many of
the 1,200 companies that have committed to setting science-based targets
to reduce their GHG emissions.
*Will the Chamber support lawmakers committed to climate action and stop
endorsing climate deniers? *
Nearly half of the lawmakers who received the Chamber’s most recent
Spirit of Enterprise award, which includes financial support, can be
classified as climate deniers. Clark should shift the Chamber’s coveted
endorsements and funding toward lawmakers that are pro-climate action.
*Will the Chamber back an ambitious 2030 emissions reduction target for
the U.S. under the Paris Agreement? *
kjThe Biden administration will soon announce a reduction target to cut
U.S. emissions by 2030. The Chamber has expressed support for U.S.
membership in the Paris Agreement but on March 17 they published a
statement about the development of a "realistic and achievable”
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). “Realistic and achievable” is
code for maintaining the status quo at a time when we need leadership
and transformation to address the climate risk. The devil is in the
details, and the details reinforce this lack of ambition.
The Chamber’s “Principles and Priorities for NDC Development” fall back
on classic fear tactics, casting doubt on American competitiveness and
protecting specific sectors, including coal and oil. This is an
indicator that the Chamber’s underlying priorities have not changed.
The U.S. can cut emissions 50 percent or more below 2005 levels by 2030.
The data proves this, and doing so would boost American businesses,
generate more well-paying, middle-class jobs and ensure a stronger
economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chamber should revisit
its position, be outspoken about its support for an ambitious NDC that
leads rather than inhibits change and urge its members to follow suit.
Clark will face opposition from within the Chamber and throughout some
sectors of the business world if she pivots support away from fossil
fuel interests. But such a pivot would bring the Chamber in line with
global business trends that recognize sustainable practices as the
future of their industries.
Clark can help the Chamber’s members thrive now, through the 21st
century and beyond by promoting robust climate action. The companies she
represents and the competitiveness of U.S. industry depend on it.
Kevin Moss is the global director of WRI’s Center for Sustainable
Business. In this capacity, he leads the institute’s private sector
strategy, guides research and engagement and oversees WRI’s
business-oriented init
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/544318-four-indicators-that-bidens-chamber-pick-will-pursue-climate
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - March 23, 2006 *
March 23, 2006: In a CBSNews.com interview, "60 Minutes" correspondent
Scott Pelley explains why he doesn't cite the views of climate-change
deniers in his stories:
*Scott Pelley And Catherine Herrick On Global Warming Coverage*
BY BRIAN MONTOPOLI
MARCH 23, 2006 / 10:30 AM / CBS NEWS
This past Sunday, 60 Minutes aired its second report of the
season on global warming. Both reports featured correspondent
Scott Pelley. Pelley also did a report on New Orleans that dealt
with climate change, and he is now exploring different angles
for another possible global warming story next season.
I spoke with Pelley and producer Catherine Herrick, who produced
Sunday's story with Bill Owens, about why they have become
focused on global warming, as well as the nature of their
coverage of the topic.
Both of the global warming stories, Herrick says, grew out of
the release of the results of the Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment, which were presented in November 2004. It is
considered the most comprehensive assessment of climate change
ever undertaken. The second story, which focused on government
scientist James Hansen, grew out of the first, Pelley says, and
the two were originally going to be part of the same story.
I told Pelley that his apparent focus on global warming could
lead some to the conclusion that he was on a crusade. "It's not
a crusade for me, but it's a topic I'm very interested in," he
says. He adds that while two of the twelve stories he's doing
this season are on global warming, they are those are the only
two that he's aware of "60 Minutes" doing – and the show does
more than 100 stories in a season. "So that ain't much," he
says, noting that there are plenty of other topics that have
been covered twice, such as prisoner abuse. I pointed out that
one see those other topics all over the place, while global
warming doesn't seem to get as much attention.
"It's very expensive to do global warming stories," says
Herrick, noting the logistical difficulty of going somewhere
like the Arctic Circle. "This has been my life since November of
2004." When pressed on why they, specifically, were covering the
topic, Pelley and Herrick focused on why it was newsworthy, not
personal interest. Pelley noted that the president is now
talking about warming, the scientific community has become more
united in its opinion on the topic, industries like coal and
insurance are changing their approach to dealing with warming
issues, scientists are saying it's happening faster than ever
before, and "it's something the audience is very interested in."
Pelley's most recent report, like his first, did not pause to
acknowledge global warming skeptics, instead treating the
existence of global warming as an established fact. I again
asked him why. "If I do an interview with Elie Wiesel," he asks,
"am I required as a journalist to find a Holocaust denier?" He
says his team tried hard to find a respected scientist who
contradicted the prevailing opinion in the scientific community,
but there was no one out there who fit that description. "This
isn't about politics or pseudo-science or conspiracy theory
blogs," he says. "This is about sound science."
But doesn't the fact that there are a lot of Americans who are
skeptical of global warming – not well respected scientists,
perhaps, but ordinary people watching the segment – warrant at
least some recognition of the other side? "There becomes a point
in journalism where striving for balance becomes irresponsible,"
says Pelley.
Herrick compares the debate around global warming to that which
once took place around seatbelts. "There was a debate about
whether they could save your life, and it moved beyond that to
what we can do about it," she says. She adds that a debate about
the existence of global warming today may not be legitimate, but
that doesn't keep it from popping up on cable news. "Special
interests put out some great spokespeople, who are often better
equipped to make their arguments that the people defending the
science," she says. "People on the science side don't understand
why the debate is still going on."
First published on March 23, 2006 / 10:30 AM
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-pelley-and-catherine-herrick-on-global-warming-coverage/
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