[TheClimate.Vote] March 24, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Mar 24 11:40:13 EDT 2021
/*March 24, 2021*/
[Associated Press]
*Forecast for spring: Nasty drought worsens for much of US*
BY SETH BORENSTEIN
March 18, 2021
With nearly two-thirds of the United States abnormally dry or worse, the
government’s spring forecast offers little hope for relief, especially
in the West where a devastating megadrought has taken root and worsened.
Weather service and agriculture officials warned of possible water use
cutbacks in California and the Southwest, increased wildfires, low
levels in key reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell and damage to
wheat crops.
More than 44% of the nation is in moderate or worse drought, and nearly
18% is in extreme or exceptional drought — all of it west of the
Mississippi River. Climate scientists are calling what’s happening in
the West a “megadrought” that started in 1999.
“The nearly West-wide drought is already quite severe in its breadth and
intensity, and unfortunately it doesn’t appear likely that there will be
much relief this spring,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain, who
writes the Weather West blog and isn’t part of the NOAA outlook. “Winter
precipitation has been much below average across much of California, and
summer precipitation reached record low levels in 2020 across the desert
Southwest.”
https://apnews.com/article/drought-spring-forecast-united-states-b24a2a60ae320df2fb245e4f215aeb5e
- -
[WBUR Audio podcast - (thanks LH!)]
*America's West Faces A Megadrought. What's The Solution?*
On Point
The western U.S. is no stranger to drought. But this isn't any dry
spell. More than 70% of the West is exceptionally parched. Could it be a
permanent change?
Brad Udall and Colby Pellegrino join Meghna Chakrabarti.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/03/18/america-west-megadrought-dry-farmer
- -
[see the map
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Drought-monitor-March-16-2021.jpg]
*Opinion: We need to act now to fight wildfires*
March 22, 2021
Much of the Western U.S. is in severe to exceptional drought
By Harrison Raine
For the 2021 fire season, the writing is on the wall. The West, despite
a few days of intense winter, is far drier than it was leading up to
last year’s record-breaking fires.
As a hotshot crew member, the reality of what’s to come fills me with
two distinct thoughts: money and dread. With my financial stability tied
to overtime pay, I know that my pockets will be full when I am laid off
next winter. But the unrelenting fires that stand between now and then
make me nervous.
I also know that I am not alone. Across the West, people in homes and
communities are filled with anxiety as they look at dry timber and brown
hillsides that are usually white this time of year. For them, when the
air fills with smoke, there won’t be any fire paychecks, just a
prolonged sense of uncertainty.
Drought levels often serve as a good indicator of the fires to come, and
things are far worse now than they were in the build-up to 2020. Rich
Tinker, an author of the U.S. Drought Monitor at the Climate Prediction
Center, told me, “In 2020, the highest we got to anywhere, was a D2 —
Severe Drought. Now we are looking at D3 — D4 — Extreme and Exceptional
Drought across much of the West and almost all of the Southwest.”
When Nick Nauslar, a fire meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire
Center, talks about the fire season to come, he’s particularly blunt:
“The deck is stacked against us. I fully expect a busier season than
normal across the Southwest.”
For Tinker and Nauslar, the areas of concern primarily encompass the
Four Corners states of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. When you
put together light snowpack, dry fuels and high temperatures, every
wildland firefighter knows what that means.
In my time as wildland firefighter, the question I get asked again and
again is whether I am ever scared. The answer to this question is “yes,”
but not in the life or death way in which its asked.
There are far more constant threats than the flames themselves. Smoke,
for one. Carbon emissions, for another.
I think I’m worried most by the knowledge that damage from these
wildfires affects the health of millions of people, and that the large
wildfires of today are ensuring bigger ones in the future. Everyone
should be concerned about this reality, not just those of us on the fire
line.
Wildfires and their management are known by some researchers as a
“wicked problem,” where no optimal solution exists. For decades, forest
managers were convinced that suppressing all fires was the answer. But
we’ve known for a while now how misplaced those beliefs were, even as
many agencies cling to that failed strategy of a century ago.
Jerry Williams, former fire and aviation director for the U.S. Forest
Service, puts it best about our stubborn wrongheadedness: “Every year we
set a new record, we invest more in (fire) suppression, invest less in
mitigation and wonder why we’re not getting on top of it.” If someone
who directed the largest wildland firefighting force in the world makes
this statement, it’s probably time to try something else.
What we need are policies and programs that address wildfires in ways
beyond putting fires out. This Spring, Colorado showed that it’s willing
to learn from last season’s pain when Gov. Jared Polis and State
legislators from both sides of the aisle released a series of bills
aimed at wildfire mitigation, not only wildfire suppression.
These bills are exciting for several reasons such as: allocation of
millions for forest health projects and grants for communities and
individual homeowners to carry out their own hazard reduction projects.
Also there is an effort to seek out incentives for markets to address
fuel mitigation through biomass energy.
The millions the state spends now on restoring forests and hardening
homes pale in comparison to the costs of firefighting and rebuilding
homes. Every dollar spent on prevention saves $17 in suppression,
according to a report from former Utah Gov. Gary R Herbert.
There is also a bill to allow former inmates with firefighting
experience to seek future employment with the state, which will help
ensure a consistent workforce.
I hope the federal government is taking notes.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/03/22/opinion-we-need-to-act-now-to-fight-wildfires/
- -
[NOAA]
*Spring Outlook: Drought to persist, expand in U.S. West and High Plains*
Unlike past years, flooding from snowmelt to be less severe
March 18, 2021
Map image
https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/season_drought%20%281%29.png
[download image https://www.noaa.gov/image_download/74993?itok=E1tXy6M7]
"The Southwest U.S., which is already experiencing widespread severe to
exceptional drought, will remain the hardest hit region in the U.S., and
water supply will continue to be a concern this spring in these
drought-affected areas," said Mary Erickson, deputy director of the
National Weather Service. "This is a major change from recent years
where millions were impacted by severe flooding. Nonetheless, NOAA's
forecasts and outlooks will continue to serve as a resource for
emergency managers and community decision-makers as they navigate all
potential extreme seasonal weather and water events."
- -
*Temperature and precipitation outlook*
For April through June, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored for
the entire contiguous U.S. with the exception of Western Montana,
northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon and Washington. Hawaii, western and
northern Alaska are also forecast to see above-normal temperatures.
Below-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of southern Alaska,
the Alaska Panhandle and parts of Washington state, according to the
NOAA forecast.
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/spring-outlook-drought-to-persist-expand-in-us-west-and-high-plains
See also -
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/spring-outlook-drought-persist-expand-us-west-and-high-plains
- -
[NOAA video]
*Drought, warmth are the big story of NOAA's spring 2021 outlook*
Mar 18, 2021
NOAAClimate
On March 18, NOAA issued its spring outlook for floods, drought,
precipitation and temperature. Watch to find out what climate conditions
are favored for spring 2021. Download maps at Climate.gov --
https://www.climate.gov/Spring2021.
Video produced by the Climate.gov team in cooperation with the NWS
National Water Center and the Climate Prediction Center. Unless
specifically stated otherwise, Climate.gov video productions can be
freely republished or re-purposed by others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGi__4sLSpo
- -
[geo-political considerations]
*How Can Rain Create Conflict? Precipitation and Water Use: Crash Course
Geography #11*
Mar 23, 2021
CrashCourse
If you compare precipitation around the world with population
distribution we can understand a simple but powerful pattern of human
geography: where there is water, there are people. But it gets a little
more complicated because where there are people and limited resources,
there is often conflict and bigger geographical questions at stake. So
today, we’re going to zoom in and look more closely at how precipitation
patterns around the Great Plains and the western United States has led
to many conflicts involving the use and distribution of water resources.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68G1ikYRNxg
[The Phoenix - commentary threads]
*Tuesday Thread: Feeling overwhelmed**
*Eric Holthaus
March 23, 2021
There’s been so much happening lately, at least it feels like to me. I’m
feeling super overwelmed by all of it.
Content warning: the next few paragraphs are a list of all the very
specific reasons I’m feeling overwhelmed.
I’m not sure whether it’s surge of vaccinations and the imminent return
to “business as normal”, the steady drumbeat of depressing climate news,
the double mass shootings and hate crimes, the intense social anxiety
I’ve developed during the pandemic, or the fact that I recently turned
40 and my kids are growing up very quickly… but it’s been a lot.
What feels worse to me, personally, is that people I know and care about
are making tangible choices to return back to business as usual – as is
the larger economy as a whole – and that’s being celebrated. I just want
to scream: “WE CAN’T GO BACK TO NORMAL, NORMAL WASN’T WORKING!”
And then, after experiencing that, it takes *a lot* of emotional energy
to find myself in a place where I can honestly imagine the
transformative change that needs to take place with the scale and speed
and justice that it needs to. I mean, I wrote a whole book about this,
it should be easier, right? It hasn’t been.
I know that moving through this requires waking up, living in community
and solidarity with everyone else around me, no matter how they’re
handling this transition, and mutually helping each other get to a place
where a better future is inevitable for everyone. I know I’ll get there,
I’m just not quite sure how – and that not knowing is the source of my
anxiety.
Maybe some of you are feeling the same way. How are you coping with the
rush of emotions you’re feeling?
https://thephoenix.substack.com/p/tuesday-thread-feeling-overwhelmed/comments
[media deception and information warfare - brief video]
*Amy Westervelt on Climate Denial and Conspiracy Theories*
Mar 23, 2021
greenmanbucket
I've spent a lot of time since the January 6 insurrection thinking about
how 30 years of high budget, psychological warfare on climate science
has degraded our national conversation, and people's ability to tell
truth from falsehood.
Amy Westervelt is a climate journalist, produces the Drilled podcast,
and has done some deep dives on fossil fuel's psychological warfare
programs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q6i1R2-9rg
- -
[audio explanation 45 min podcast]
*How the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Undermining Free Speech*
Drilled
Fossil fuel-backed anti-protest laws have been passed in 14 states and
are making their way through statehouses in several more states,
including six different bills in Minnesota, the only state with a big
pipeline fight this year: Line 3. Researcher Connor Gibson joins to talk
us through how this all started and where it's at.
Read more:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pipeline-protest-laws-coronavirus_n_5e7e7570c5b6256a7a2aab41
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fossil-fuel-protest_n_602c1ff6c5b6c95056f3f6af
https://montanafreepress.org/2021/02/24/increasing-penalties-for-damaging-energy-infrastructure/
https://grassrootbeer.substack.com/p/a-refinery-lobbyist-told-kansas-legislators
https://grassrootbeer.substack.com/p/a-refinery-lobbyist-told-kansas-legislators
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-the-fossil-fuel-industry-is-undermining-free-speech/id1439735906?i=1000513730667
[are the dust storms made worse by human civilization?]
*The skies in Beijing turned orange recently, thanks to what was widely
reported as a massive sandstorm.*
The problem, at least in terms of public health, is that it was not
actually a sandstorm. It was a dust storm.
This might sound like an act of geological pedantry, but it represents a
crucial difference, and it comes down to a question of size. Sand grains
are mineral particles greater than 0.06mm in diameter – the sort that
scratches your ankles on a windy day at the beach and ends up spoiling
the picnic by feeling crunchy in your sandwiches. Dust is potentially a
far more serious issue than blowing sand.
Dust particles (or silt and clay as many geologists would term them) are
those smaller grains, which would feel silky to the touch, and don’t
scratch the skin. Crucially, these smaller, lighter grains may travel
much, much further.
We bring the expertise of academics to the public.
They are not reliant on the short-distance ballistic hops of the sand
grains, but may find themselves suspended in a global atmospheric
process that sees them transferred around the world. Sand will not
readily blow hundreds of kilometres, or even around the world – dust will.
The grain size also matters as the finer dust particles – those less
than 10 micrometres (pm10) and especially less than 2.5 micrometres
(pm2.5) – are serious human health hazards, as they are small enough to
be drawn deep into the lungs.
Dust storms in China have occurred since long before humans had a
widespread impact on the landscape. During the repeated ice ages of the
past 2.6 million years, huge volumes of dust were generated by the
advance and retreat of ice sheets, settling to form deposits known as loess.
Over the millennia, these have accumulated to a thickness of up to 350
metres to form the Chinese Loess Plateau, covering an area larger than
France. The loess is rich in mineral nutrients, and makes for productive
agricultural soil. It is largely this farmland which is now being eroded
again by the wind and recirculating as dust.
https://theconversation.com/beijings-sandstorm-was-actually-a-dust-storm-and-thats-much-worse-157367
[ClimateSight blog]
*Let’s hear more from the women who leave academia (Part 2)*
Posted on Mar 23, 2021
After the publication of my previous post, I received an email from Dr
Sian Grigg, who decided to leave academia following the completion of
her PhD. Read on below to hear her story.
https://climatesight.org/2021/03/23/lets-hear-more-from-the-women-who-leave-academia-part-2/
[Exxon Valdez crash, spill and disaster]
*On this day in the history of global warming - March 24, 1989 *
March 24, 1989: The notorious Exxon Valdez oil spill takes place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znotiZ-N-oc
[Exxon Valdez spill also revealed the extent of media coverup and
manipulation. I was working in a newsroom with the old teletype
machines. They printed misinformation - either intentional or not - the
first few news reports claimed no damage to fish and wildlife. ]
- -
[more from 2014]
*Exxon Valdez oil spill
*From Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon_Valdez_oil_spill
- -
[PhD dissertation April 2018]
*Apology Not Accepted: The Impact of Executive Rhetoric,Communication
Strategies, Media Coverage and Time on Crisis*
*Management and Public Perception during Major Oil Spills*
Western Michigan University
Todd D. Harcek, Ph.D.
Western Michigan University, 2018
This research builds upon the scholarship in crisis communication
strategies and apologia
employed by companies during a crisis. Within the expansive domain
of crisis management, this
work evaluates the media coverage and crisis communication
strategies during three major oil
spills: the Exxon Valdez, the American Trader, and the BP Gulf oil
spill. The purpose of this
study is to provide practitioners, researchers and others additional
insight into the impact of
media coverage on prior, current and future crises and how this
coverage, coupled with the
communication strategies of companies during a crisis, can influence
public awareness or
perception. Furthermore, this work examines how some crises are
referenced over time and can
be linked with other crises and that the public awareness of a
crisis through continued or
sustained media and scholarly references can exist well beyond the
presumed resolution of a
crisis. The study reveals that crises spread to others, can be
overshadowed by other crises, and
can result in an echo that lasts for years...
- -
Furthermore, this dissertation reveals that crisis communication
strategies that use
apologia and image repair may be more nuanced and complex than
previously understood. As
the crisis management and crisis communication domain expand
significantly, this dissertation
suggests that, like crises, our understanding of crisis phenomena is
not static and, as such, we
should continue to review, research, and evaluate the many facets of
crisis as our continued
contribution to others.
https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4229&context=dissertations
- -
[movie I have not seen $ preview report with Diane Sawyer]
*The Untold Story of the Exxon Valdez*
https://www.films.com/ecTitleDetail.aspx?TitleID=29857
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