[✔️] September 27, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[👀 Richard Pauli]

/*September 27, 2021*/

/[do the math]/
*Children set for more climate disasters than their grandparents, 
research shows*
Climate crisis brings stark intergenerational injustice but rapid 
emission cuts can limit damage
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/children-set-for-more-climate-disasters-than-their-grandparents-research-shows


/[CNBC ]/
*Climate psychologist says neither gloom-and-doom nor extreme 
solution-obsessed optimism is the best way to discuss climate change 
productively*
SEP 26 2021
Catherine Clifford
-- Communicating about climate change effectively is critical to get 
people to engage with it productively, according to climate psychologist 
Renée Lertzman.
-- First, there has to be an honest acknowledgement that we can not 
solve climate change alone. The narrative has to be reframed from one of 
“me” to one of “we.”
-- Second, we have to have compassion for feeling sadness, anger and 
anxiety about what is happening to the planet while also focusing on 
solutions.
Communicating about climate change effectively is critical to get people 
to engage with it productively, according to climate psychologist Renée 
Lertzman. And right now, communications about climate change are not 
helping.

*People are scared.*
Almost three in four people (72%) worldwide are worried that global 
climate change will harm them personally at some point in their 
lifetime, according to survey data from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

Almost half of young people (45%) say their feelings about climate 
change negatively impact their daily lives, while 77% say the future is 
frightening with regard to climate change, according to a survey of 
10,000 young people across 10 countries released this month by academics.

That fear needs to be acknowledged and worked through individually in 
the companies we work for, in local communities, in government and in 
organizations, says Lertzman. Only after that can we productively 
discuss how to prepare, adapt and fight.

The following are excerpts of Lertzman’s comments in a video interview 
with CNBC. They have been edited for brevity and clarity...
- -
*Be authentic*
It’s really important that we don’t try to be “hope police” on 
ourselves, forcing ourselves to feel more hopeful or more upbeat or 
positive.

And that’s a trend that I find really concerning and troubling because, 
if you look at just the psychological lens, it’s not how it works. We 
don’t force ourselves to suddenly feel and behave in certain ways.

A solution-ier focuses exclusively on solutions and has no tolerance and 
no space for any kind of expression of feelings or uncertainty or 
ambivalence. It’s almost a zealous focus on the solutions. And it can 
really shut people down. And it can really alienate a lot of people who 
are not there yet. They still are processing and asking questions like, 
“What does this mean for us? Why are we in this situation in the first 
plate?”

The solution-ier mode is that you have to just solve, solve, solve. And, 
frankly, that problem-solution binary isn’t totally appropriate for the 
situation we’re in. This is a state of being that is going to be 
continuing for the unforeseeable future.

The doom-and-gloom-versus-hope dichotomy or binary is false. And it’s 
one that we really need as communicators, journalists, the media needs 
to be actively dismantling.

In actuality, the path forward is a middle path. And that middle path is 
one of authenticity.

It’s really about authentic experience and authentic engagement with 
this crisis. There is enormous hopefulness and enormous positivity and 
deep inspiration and power with recognizing and facing directly the 
scale and the impact and the loss....
- -
The new model is one that is really exciting to me and is more human 
centered. It’s more authentic. It is about coming together. And looking 
at these issues together. And talking about what to do about this. It’s 
more inclusive. People feel that they’re really part of this conversation.

There have to be more people at different levels in the organization, in 
different parts of the organization, who are given the platform and the 
ability to initiate, to mobilize, to move things forward. It doesn’t 
only live at the C-Suite.

And ideally, if it’s done well, each person, no matter what part of the 
company you’re in, feels that they have a stake in this climate change 
response. Nobody is exempting themselves because they don’t know enough 
about climate. An effective response is one where everyone has something 
to add here and is a part of the response. It means creating an 
atmosphere where everyone all has a vital role.

Because, what really drives change is when people feel invited, they 
feel heard, understood, included.

One example of how to start this is hosting circles. I train people to 
facilitate climate circles or conversations, which are small groups 
where people meet over a duration of time, and they just simply come 
together and talk about what they’re feeling and thinking about the issues.

And before long, it becomes about action. It really does.

People don’t stay that long in the feeling, but you need to at least 
have the space to go there before getting into action planning. And if 
we jump right into actions and bypass discussing how people feel, then 
we shortchange and we short circuit the the potential to really do some 
amazing work.

A resource for those interested in further reading: Lertzman recommends 
Project Inside Out, an online resource she was commissioned to put 
together by the climate organization, the KR Foundation, based in Denmark.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/26/how-to-discuss-climate-change-productively.html


/[ From Australia - video explanation  ]/
*Scenarios, carbon budgets and temperature projections in the new IPCC 
WG1 AR6 report*
Aug 10, 2021
Climate & Energy College
A/Prof Malte Meinshausen and Zebedee Nicholls, 10 August 2021.

The Physical Science (Working Group 1) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth 
Assessment Report was released on the 10th August 2021. This first of 
two seminars will provide an overview of some key results in the IPCC 
report, presented by two authors that have been closely involved in this 
IPCC cycle. The seminar will cover the new scenarios that underpin 
future projections, historical warming updates, the question around how 
these scenarios compare to 1.5C warming, a comparison of when peak 
warming levels could be reached under the low mitigation scenarios, the 
impact of COVID, techniques to provide assessed future temperature 
projections based on multiple lines of evidence, the usefulness of 
providing projections against warming levels, remaining carbon budgets 
in comparison to the SR.5 report, as well as the importance of CO2 
versus other gases, both in terms of past and future warming as well as 
in terms of so-called metrics that compare unit emissions of different 
GHGs. The second seminar (24th August) will provide more technical 
detail on two key aspects, i.e. assessed future warming levels and 
remaining carbon budgets.

To download a copy of the seminar slides, please visit the College 
Website: 
https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/seminar/scenarios-carbon-budgets-and-temperature-projections-new-ipcc-wg1-ar6-report
or download directly here: 
https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/files/site1/seminar_documents/ar6-wg1-seminar-1-slides-10AUG_ZN-MM.pdf

This seminar is part of a series being hosted by the Climate and Energy 
College in 2021 that is supported by the Strategic Partnership for 
Implementation of the Paris Agreement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRzV75SZLlY/
/

/
/


//[ sometimes a powerful posting attracts denialist comments - the 
imprimatur of its enemies validates the ////message] //
*I**nside the mind of a climate change scientist | Corinne Le Quéré | 
TEDxWarwick*
Apr 19, 2018
TEDx Talks
In a lighthearted but highly relevant talk, Corinne discusses the 
ever-pressing issue of climate change - from the perspective of a 
climate scientist who is no longer trying to convince you that the 
threat is real. Professor Corinne Le Quéré FRS is the Director of the 
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and a Professor of Climate 
Change Science and Policy at the University of East Anglia. In 2017, she 
chaired the International Panel of the ‘Make the Planet Great Again’ 
campaign led by French President Emmanuel Macron, which awarded grants 
to outstanding climate scientists around the world. Le Quéré also 
initiates and directs the yearly update of the Global Carbon Budget, a 
publication by the Global Carbon Project which aims to inform readers 
about the latest developments in global and national carbon cycle 
changes. A member of the UK Committee on Climate Change and author of 
the 3rd, 4th and 5th Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change, Corinne has contributed to advances in the 
quantification of the causes and trends of atmospheric carbon dioxide as 
well as the use and development of carbon cycle models in carbon 
budgets. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference 
format but independently organized by a local community.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6f4Q_ReMxA



/[ risk on the top of the world ]/
*Warming in the Himalayas is pushing the Indian Subcontinent towards 
water insecurity*
As climate change will impact water availability in the Indus, Ganga and 
Brahmaputra, megacities like Delhi and Lahore will face the brunt, finds 
a study.
https://scroll.in/article/999972/warming-in-the-himalayas-is-pushing-the-indian-subcontinent-towards-water-insecurity 


- -

/[ study source]/
*Glaciohydrology of the Himalaya-Karakoram*
20 Aug 2021
Vol 373, Issue 6557
Abstract
Understanding the response of Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) rivers to climate 
change is crucial for ~1 billion people who partly depend on these water 
resources. Policy-makers tasked with sustainable water resources 
management require an assessment of the rivers’ current status and 
potential future changes. We show that glacier and snow melt are 
important components of HK rivers, with greater hydrological importance 
for the Indus basin than for the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. Total 
river runoff, glacier melt, and seasonality of flow are projected to 
increase until the 2050s, with some exceptions and large uncertainties. 
Critical knowledge gaps severely affect modeled contributions of 
different runoff components, future runoff volumes, and seasonality. 
Therefore, comprehensive field observation–based and remote 
sensing–based methods and models are needed.
DOI: 10.1126/science.abf3668
https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abf3668



/[Well, this is a long way off]/
*By 2500, Earth Will Be Alien to Humans if We Don't Act Now, Scientists 
Warn*
CHRISTOPHER LYON ET AL.,- -  THE CONVERSATION  - - 27 SEPTEMBER 2021
There are many reports based on scientific research that talk about the 
long-term impacts of climate change – such as rising levels of 
greenhouse gases, temperatures and sea levels – by the year 2100. The 
Paris Agreement, for example, requires us to limit warming to under 2.0 
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century...
- -
While some climate projections do look past 2100, these longer-term 
projections aren't being factored into mainstream climate adaptation and 
environmental decision-making today. This is surprising because people 
born now will only be in their 70s by 2100. What will the world look 
like for their children and grandchildren?

To grasp, plan for and communicate the full spatial and temporal scope 
of climate impacts under any scenario, even those meeting the Paris 
Agreement, researchers and policymakers must look well beyond the 2100 
horizon...
- -
*After 2100*
In 2100, will the climate stop warming? If not, what does this mean for 
humans now and in the future? In our recent open-access article in 
Global Change Biology, we begin to answer these questions.

We ran global climate model projections based on Representative 
Concentration Pathways (RCP), which are "time-dependent projections of 
atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations."

Our projections modelled low (RCP6.0), medium (RCP4.5) and high 
mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6, which corresponds to the "well-below 2 
degrees Celsius" Paris Agreement goal) up to the year 2500.

We also modelled vegetation distribution, heat stress and growing 
conditions for our current major crop plants, to get a sense of the kind 
of environmental challenges today's children and their descendants might 
have to adapt to from the 22nd century onward...
- -
*An alien future?*
Between 1500 and today, we have witnessed colonization and the 
Industrial Revolution, the birth of modern states, identities and 
institutions, the mass combustion of fossil fuels and the associated 
rise in global temperatures.

If we fail to halt climate warming, the next 500 years and beyond will 
change the Earth in ways that challenge our ability to maintain many 
essentials for survival – particularly in the historically and 
geographically rooted cultures that give us meaning and identity.

The Earth of our high-end projections is alien to humans. The choice we 
face is to urgently reduce emissions, while continuing to adapt to the 
warming we cannot escape as a result of emissions up to now, or begin to 
consider life on an Earth very different to this one. The Conversation
https://www.sciencealert.com/by-2500-earth-will-be-alien-to-humans-if-we-don-t-act-now-scientists-warn



/[The news archive - looking back]/
*On this day in the history of global warming September  27, 1988*
September 27, 1988: In a speech to the Royal Society in London,
Margaret Thatcher addresses the environmental threats of global
warming, the ozone layer and acid rain, noting the risk of rising sea
levels to the Maldives.
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107346


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