[✔️] August 4, 2022 - Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Thu Aug 4 09:43:55 EDT 2022
/*August 4, 2022*/
/[ Salon reports ]/
*Manchin’s secret climate “side deal” revealed: “It’s not a climate
solution, it’s a climate bomb”*
Manchin cut a deal to boost oil and gas drilling in exchange for his
support for climate change funding...
"It's not a climate solution. It's a climate bomb,"
https://www.salon.com/2022/08/02/manchins-secret-climate-side-deal-revealed-its-not-a-climate-solution-its-a-climate-bomb_partner/
//
/
/
/[ in a 4 min video report BBC warns - ]/
*Catastrophic climate change outcomes like human extinction ‘not being
taken seriously' - BBC News*
127,612 views Aug 2, 2022 Catastrophic climate change outcomes,
including human extinction, are not being taken seriously enough by
scientists, a new study says.
The authors say that the consequences of more extreme warming, which is
possible if no action is taken, are "dangerously underexplored".
They argue that the world needs to start preparing for the possibility
of what they term the "climate endgame".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuFheTMljZk
/[ the news science is getting noticed ]/
*Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in
research*
Florian U Jehn, Marie Schneider, Jason R Wang, Luke Kemp and Lutz Breuer
29 July 2021
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 16, Number 8
Citation Florian U Jehn et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 084036
*Abstract*
We compare the probability of different warming rates to their
mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is
a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research
coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially
overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C
and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely
neglected.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac13ef/meta
[ from PBS - some science background about future storms ]
*How Hurricane History Has Hidden What's Coming*
155,861 views Jul 5, 2022 PBS Member Stations rely on viewers like
you. To support your local station, go to: http://to.pbs.org/DonateTerra.
Both climate models and the laws of physics are clear: more greenhouse
gasses in the atmosphere means warmer air and oceans, which means more
energy for bigger, stronger hurricanes. So why is it that we haven’t
seen a clear signal from climate change in the hurricane record over the
last century? This episode explores groundbreaking research on this
question and looks ahead at what we can expect in the coming decades.
Weathered is a show hosted by weather expert Maiya May and produced by
Balance Media that helps explain the most common natural disasters, what
causes them, how they’re changing, and what we can do to prepare.
Subscribe to PBS Terra so you never miss an episode! https://bit.ly/3mOfd77
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuwA3wWQ538&
//
/[ Activism via your elected official - let them know of this ]/
*EOPA Elected Officials to Protect America *
Empowering Leadership for the Environment, Public Health, and Climate Change
Our Mission: to create a safe, prosperous, and healthy planet, we
empower bold leadership from elected officials and civic leaders to
protect our environment, and fight climate change.
As current and former elected officials who care deeply about protecting
our planet and people from the dangers of climate change, EOPA educates
through value-based storytelling, training lawmakers, and connecting
elected officials to inspire strong environmental policy. We have
lawmakers who are veterans and other elected officials who represent
frontline communities leading our efforts.
Dear President Biden, Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Schumer,
Minority Leader McCarthy, and Minority Leader McConnell:
We, the undersigned elected officials, believe it is imperative we
take action on the climate crisis because it is a threat multiplier
for global and water security, deadly disease, and environmental
racism. It is time to enact a national Climate Emergency Plan that
protects all our communities.
At least 40 states will face water shortages this decade. And yet,
Saudi Arabia and China are extracting American water at an alarming
rate. Globally, 37 acute conflicts, many unresolved, are due to
water insecurity. Our intelligence and military community understand
the climate emergency as a threat to national security.
These are serious examples of the dangers created by the climate
crisis that is driving drought, disease, floods, fires, extreme
temperatures, and storms.
These are clear and present dangers, but innovation, resilience, and
the American spirit have created many proven existing solutions that
can unify and protect us. Despite political inaction and misguided
regulations that have held us back, there is hope.
For example, in Maine, clean energy innovators have deployed a
revolutionary floating offshore wind turbine. This is just one of
the many already working innovations that energize our economy.
Clean, renewable energy is already less expensive than using fossil
fuels and can generate millions of jobs.
We call on the President and Congress to develop a federal Climate
Emergency Plan that can include, but is not limited to the following
objectives:
Declare a national climate emergency and invoke the Defense
Production Act to ramp up clean energy production
Create millions of jobs transitioning to a 100% clean energy economy
Invest in communities on the frontlines of environmental injustice
and the climate emergency, especially Indigenous, Black and Brown,
and economically vulnerable communities
Invest in clean, affordable transportation and smart renewable
energy grids
Phase out fossil fuels and shift financing to clean energy
Transition to regenerative agriculture
Ensure everyone has access to clean and safe water
Phase out plastics and toxins threatening global ecosystems and
oxygen supply
Improve building, industrial, and appliance efficiency
Prevent foreign states from unsustainably extracting American water
America must lead the world in protecting everyone from the climate
emergency.
Sincerely,
Members, Elected Officials to Protect America
https://protectingamerica.net/national-climate-emergency-letter/
/
/
/[From Climate Nexus - trending discussion of our underestimating of
risk and danger ]/
//*An international team of experts argue the world needs to start
exploring the impacts of a “climate endgame”*
A perspective published in Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences argues that the consequences of warming the planet beyond 3
degrees Celsius have been “dangerously underexplored” with few
quantitative estimates of worldwide societal collapse or even eventual
human extinction. “We know least about the scenarios that matter most,”
lead author Dr. Luke Kemp told the Guardian. The researchers warn that
unchecked global warming could trigger other catastrophes like war or
pandemics, and worsen existing vulnerabilities like poverty, crop
failure and lack of water. The research suggests countries may fight
over geoengineering plans or the right to emit carbon as up to two
billion people deal with extreme temperatures in some of the most
densely populated and politically fraught areas. The researchers call on
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to dedicate a future
report to catastrophic climate change to incentivize future research and
inform policymakers and the public. (AP, The Guardian, Inside Climate
News, BBC, Phys.org)
- -
[ a 10 min video classic of Professor John Schellnhuber at COP24 in 2018 ]
*More Work To Be Done on Catastrophic Climate Risk Potsdam Institute for
Climate Research*
" Optimality is the completely wrong paradigm for the situation we are
in now "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp7kdvdci98
- -
/[ Nick Breeze reports ]/
*Considering catastrophe: high-impact, low-probability climate scenarios
“dangerously underexplored”*
August 2, 2022
Nick Breeze
Climate journalist and host of the ClimateGenn podcast.
Researchers call for a new “Climate Endgame” agenda and say far too
little work has gone into understanding the mechanisms by which rising
temperatures might pose a “catastrophic” risk to society and humanity:
For instance, if temperature rises are worse than many predict or cause
cascades of events we have yet to consider, or indeed both. The world
needs to start preparing for the possibility of a “climate endgame”, the
authors argue in a perspective piece in the Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences PNAS. Assessing catastrophic risks is necessary in
order to have a better chance of preventing them.
“Irreversible and potentially catastrophic risks caused by human-induced
climate change must be factored into our planning and actions. If there
is a red thread in science over the past 30 years it is this; the more
we learn about how our planet functions, the higher is the reason for
concern”, Johan Rockström explains, Director of the Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impacts and a co-author. “Tipping points are coming closer,
not only because we are emitting more greenhouse gases, but also that we
increasingly understand that our planet is more fragile and a more
sophisticated oganism with feedbacks and interactions that quite
abruptly can shift its functions from dampening and cooling, to
amplifying and warming. Amazon die-back and accelerated melting of the
Greenland ice sheet are examples of systems that can rapidly go from
cooling sinks to warming sources. This means we cannot contend ourselves
to look at mean values only, we must factor in non-linear high-end
risks. Key is to do the math of disaster, in order to avoid it.”
“There are plenty of reasons to believe climate change could become
catastrophic, even at modest levels of warming,” said lead author Luke
Kemp from Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. “Climate
change has played a role in every mass extinction event. It has helped
fell empires and shaped history. Even the modern world seems adapted to
a particular climate niche,” he said. “Paths to disaster are not limited
to the direct impacts of high temperatures, such as extreme weather
events. Knock-on effects such as financial crises, conflict, and new
disease outbreaks could trigger other calamities, and impede recovery
from potential disasters such as nuclear war.”
The author team proposes a research agenda focusing on what they call
the “four horsemen” of the “climate endgame”: famine and malnutrition,
extreme weather, conflict, and vector-borne diseases. Rising
temperatures pose a major threat to global food supply, they say, with
increasing probabilities of “breadbasket failures” as the world’s most
agriculturally productive areas might suffer collective meltdowns.
Hotter and more extreme weather could also create conditions for new
disease outbreaks as habitats for both people and wildlife shift and
shrink. Furthermore, focus on identifying all potential tipping points
within “Hothouse Earth” should be strengthened, say researchers: from
methane released by permafrost melts to the loss of forests that act as
“carbon sinks”, and even potential for vanishing cloud cover.
Article: Luke Kemp et al (2022): Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic
climate change scenarios. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences [DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2108146119]
Link to the article: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
https://genn.cc/blog/catastrophe/
-
/[ From PHYS.ORG ]/
*Climate change: Potential to end humanity is 'dangerously
underexplored' say experts*
by University of Cambridge
Global heating could become "catastrophic" for humanity if temperature
rises are worse than many predict or cause cascades of events we have
yet to consider, or indeed both. The world needs to start preparing for
the possibility of a "climate endgame."
This is according to an international team of researchers led by the
University of Cambridge, who propose a research agenda for facing up to
bad-to-worst-case scenarios. These include outcomes ranging from a loss
of 10% of the global population to eventual human extinction.
In a paper published today in the journal Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, the researchers call on the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) to dedicate a future report to catastrophic
climate change to galvanize research and inform the public.
"There are plenty of reasons to believe climate change could become
catastrophic, even at modest levels of warming," said lead author Dr.
Luke Kemp from Cambridge's Center for the Study of Existential Risk.
"Climate change has played a role in every mass extinction event. It has
helped fell empires and shaped history. Even the modern world seems
adapted to a particular climate niche," he said.
"Paths to disaster are not limited to the direct impacts of high
temperatures, such as extreme weather events. Knock-on effects such as
financial crises, conflict, and new disease outbreaks could trigger
other calamities, and impede recovery from potential disasters such as
nuclear war."
Kemp and colleagues argue that the consequences of 3 degrees Celsius
warming and beyond, and related extreme risks, have been under-examined.
Modeling done by the team shows areas of extreme heat (an annual average
temperature of over 29 degrees Celsius), could cover two billion people
by 2070. These areas not only some of the most densely populated, but
also some of the most politically fragile.
"Average annual temperatures of 29 degrees currently affect around 30
million people in the Sahara and Gulf Coast," said co-author Chi Xu of
Nanjing University.
"By 2070, these temperatures and the social and political consequences
will directly affect two nuclear powers, and seven maximum containment
laboratories housing the most dangerous pathogens. There is serious
potential for disastrous knock-on effects," he said.
Last year's IPCC report suggested that if atmospheric CO2 doubles from
pre-industrial levels—something the planet is halfway towards—then there
is an roughly 18% chance temperatures will rise beyond 4.5 degrees Celsius.
However, Kemp co-authored a "text mining" study of IPCC reports,
published earlier this year, which found that IPCC assessments have
shifted away from high-end warming to increasingly focus on lower
temperature rises.
This builds on previous work he contributed to showing that extreme
temperature scenarios are "underexplored relative to their likelihood."
"We know least about the scenarios that matter most," Kemp said.
The team behind the PNAS paper propose a research agenda that includes
what they call the "four horsemen" of the climate endgame: famine and
malnutrition, extreme weather, conflict, and vector-borne diseases.
Rising temperatures pose a major threat to global food supply, they say,
with increasing probabilities of "breadbasket failures" as the world's
most agriculturally productive areas suffer collective meltdowns.
Hotter and more extreme weather could also create conditions for new
disease outbreaks as habitats for both people and wildlife shift and shrink.
The authors caution that climate breakdown would likely exacerbate other
"interacting threats": from rising inequality and misinformation to
democratic breakdowns and even new forms of destructive AI weaponry.
One possible future highlighted in the paper involves "warm wars" in
which technologically enhanced superpowers fight over both dwindling
carbon space and giant experiments to deflect sunlight and reduce global
temperatures.
More focus should go on identifying all potential tipping points within
"Hothouse Earth" say researchers: from methane released by permafrost
melts to the loss of forests that act as "carbon sinks," and even
potential for vanishing cloud cover.
"The more we learn about how our planet functions, the greater the
reason for concern," said co-author Prof Johan Rockström, Director of
the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
"We increasingly understand that our planet is a more sophisticated and
fragile organism. We must do the math of disaster in order to avoid it,"
he said.
Co-author Prof Kristie Ebi from the University of Washington said: "We
need an interdisciplinary endeavor to understand how climate change
could trigger human mass morbidity and mortality."
Added Kemp: "We know that temperature rise has a 'fat tail," which means
a wide range of lower probability but potentially extreme outcomes.
Facing a future of accelerating climate change while remaining blind to
worst-case scenarios is naive risk-management at best and fatally
foolish at worst."
https://phys.org/news/2022-08-climate-potential-humanity-dangerously-underexplored.amp
/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*August 4, 2002*/
August 4, 2002: In a New York Times op-ed, Al Gore notes:
"I believe Bill Clinton and I were right to maintain, during our
1992 campaign, that we should fight for 'the forgotten middle class'
against the 'forces of greed.' Standing up for 'the people, not the
powerful' was the right choice in 2000. And, in fact, it is the
Democratic Party's meaning and mission. The suggestion from some in
our party that we should no longer speak that truth, especially at a
time like this, strikes me as bad politics and, worse, wrong in
principle.
"This struggle between the people and the powerful was at the heart
of every major domestic issue of the 2000 campaign and is still the
central dynamic of politics in 2002. The choice, not just in
rhetoric but in reality, was and still is between a genuine
prescription drug benefit for all seniors under Medicare -- or a
token plan designed to trick the voters and satisfy pharmaceutical
companies. The White House and its allies in Congress have just
defeated legislation that would have fulfilled the promises both
parties made in 2000.
"The choice was and still is between a real patients' bill of rights
-- or doing the bidding of the insurance companies and health
maintenance organizations. Here again: promise made, promise broken.
The choice was and still is an environmental policy based on
conservation, new technologies, alternative fuels and the protection
of natural wonders like the Alaskan wilderness -- or walking away
from the grave challenge of global warming, doing away with
Superfund cleanups and giving in on issue after issue to those who
profit from pollution."
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/04/opinion/broken-promises-and-political-deception.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm
=======================================
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