[✔️] December 14, 2022 - Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*December 14, 2022*/

/[ a promising innovation -- So, c//an we get a few thousand by Tuesday?]/
*Paper-thin solar cell can turn any surface into a power source*
Researchers develop a scalable fabrication technique to produce 
ultrathin, lightweight solar cells that can be seamlessly added to any 
surface.
Watch Video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS9ADU0oc50
Adam Zewe | MIT News Office
Publication Date:December 9, 2022
-- MIT researchers have developed a printable fabric solar cell that can 
generate 18 times more power per kilogram than conventional solar cells.
-- These durable, flexible solar cells are glued to a strong, 
lightweight fabric.
-- They can provide energy on the go as a wearable power fabric or be 
deployed in emergencies.
https://news.mit.edu/2022/ultrathin-solar-cells-1209



/[ James Hansen, the Grandfather of Global Warming Scientists posts a 
scientific warning  ]/
*Global Warming in the Pipeline*
13 December 2022
James Hansen and Makiko Sato
With 14 co-authors, we have submitted Global Warming in the Pipeline[1] 
to Oxford Open Climate Change. With permission of Editor-in-Chief Eelco 
Rohling, the submitted version is available on arXiv, the website used 
by physicists for preprints. One merit of arXiv is that it permits 
discussion with the scientific community (in addition to official 
reviewers) analogous to but less formal than the procedure used by 
journals with a “Discussion” publication phase. Thus, we invite 
criticism of the submitted paper. We do not invite media discussion; we 
will write a summary appropriate for the public at the time a final 
version of the paper is published. This approach allows time to work on 
a second paper. Also, now that it’s clear what President Biden is 
willing to do (and not do) about climate change, it’s time for JEH to 
finally finish Sophie’s Planet.
We were spurred to write this paper in part by papers of Tierney et 
al.[2] and Seltzer et al.,[3] which made a persuasive case that global 
temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~20,000 years ago) was 
about 6°C colder than the Holocene. Forty years ago, we realized[4] that 
the LGM cooling had to be greater than the 3.5°C estimated by the CLIMAP 
project, because the CLIMAP surface conditions left Earth out of energy 
balance by 1.6 W/m2 – and that was without realizing that CH4 and N2O 
were less during the LGM. The CLIMAP boundary conditions left a planet 
trying to cool off with a (negative) forcing half as large as doubled 
CO2 (2×CO2) forcing. The Tierney and Seltzer papers resolve the matter: 
the LGM really was cold.

One implication is that equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is high, 
at least ~4°C for 2×CO2. That ECS refers to the climate response 
including only “fast” feedbacks. Human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate 
forcing today is 4 W/m2, equivalent to 2×CO2. Eventual climate response 
to this forcing, including slow feedbacks, is ~10°C (Fig. 1). Human-made 
aerosols reduce this to ~6-7°C.

We were initially surprised by the quick decrease of Earth’s energy 
imbalance (EEI) after CO2 was doubled in climate simulations of the 
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate models (GCMs) 
– [in production of acronyms, we seem to be relentless, merciless]. In 
the first year after CO2 is doubled, the initial 4 W/m2 forcing is 
already reduced by one-third in the GISS (2020) model (Fig. 2a). The 
e-folding time for the global temperature increase is about a century, 
yet the e-folding time for EEI is as short as a decade for this newer 
GISS model...
    - - 
https://mcusercontent.com/0ebaeb14fdbf5dc65289113c1/images/c4a3dfe7-4f8a-3694-2434-c166ab7d2de2.png
This rapid decline of EEI probably signifies a cloud change in response 
to the radiative forcing, as it is hard to think of anything else that 
could be responsible for such a large change. In fact, the community was 
already aware of what we call an “ultrafast feedback,” see reviews by 
Andrews et al.,[5] Kamae et al.,[6] and Zelinka et al.[7] This rapid 
tropospheric change can be described as an adjustment, analogous to the 
stratospheric temperature adjustment that occurs quickly after a CO2 
doubling – there are pros and cons as to whether to include the effect 
in the climate forcing or as a feedback. The important point is not the 
terminology, but rather implications for climate sensitivity. The high 
climate sensitivity implied by the paleoclimate data tends to provide 
support for models that have been finding amplifying cloud feedbacks. It 
is recognized that the two GISS models in Fig. 2 do not have realistic 
cloud microphysics and the cloud parameterization in the GISS (2020) 
model has excessive supercooled water drops in cloudtops (Fig. 1 of 
Kelley et al.[8]).

Cloud modeling – including the effects of aerosols on clouds – may be 
spurred by “the great inadvertent aerosol experiment.” Recent 
regulations on the sulfur content of ship fuels imposed by the 
International Maritime Organization (IMO) affect injection of human-made 
cloud condensation nuclei, with a significant effect on absorbed solar 
radiation. Large human-health effects of aerosols make it likely that 
recent aerosol reductions will continue and global warming accelerate 
(Fig. 3). 
https://mcusercontent.com/0ebaeb14fdbf5dc65289113c1/images/1ad10c04-532c-5b09-e7c9-c639b5b1b64a.png
https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-in-the-pipeline?e=c4e20a3850
and more at http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/



/[  Part two of two: From delay & despair to REAL hope & action.   A 
thoughtful video discussion //between two influencers //]/
*2 | Greta Thunberg & Kevin Anderson | From delay & despair to REAL hope 
& action | 2022 Interview*
Climate Uncensored
704 subscribers
3,154 views  Premiered Sep 29, 2022 /[ notice there are MORE views than 
subscribers ]/
Greta Thunberg and Kevin Anderson are among the world's most direct 
communicators and rigorous thinkers on the climate emergency. Here is 
part two of a fantastic, rare conversation between them, hosted by 
regular Climate Uncensored collaborator, Ingrid Rieser.

Recorded in Sweden in March 2022, Kevin and Greta's informal yet candid 
discussion ranged over many key topics in climate mitigation, with 
honesty, leadership and agency being recurring themes.

    Chapters:
    00:00 Individual action and systemic change
    06:06 How (not) to be a credible climate advocate
    13:14 A vision of a better world?
    18:17 Depression and climate despair, what can we do?
    *21:53 Treating an emergency as an emergency*
    26:40 Anger and hope

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72nrXRv6Nj0&



/[ trending scam -- video ]/
*#ClimateScam is trending - so now what?*
Jem Bendell
Dec 13, 2022
In this talk at the UN climate conference in Egypt, with the Climate 
Emergency Forum, I present data that indicates the prominence of 
criticisms of the climate policy agenda. I offer ideas about why this is 
the case, and what to do about it.

To read a transcript of the talk: 
https://jembendell.com/2022/11/09/when-climatescam-is-trending-rethinking-climate-comms/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIzcbEUZ0qg



/[ Comment-of-the-day from the Journal nature  ] /
12 December 2022
*Degrowth can work — here’s how science can help*
Wealthy countries can create prosperity while using less materials and 
energy if they abandon economic growth as an objective.
Jason Hickel, Giorgos Kallis, Tim Jackson, Daniel W. O’Neill, Juliet B. 
Schor, Julia K. Steinberger, Peter A. Victor & Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
The global economy is structured around growth — the idea that firms, 
industries and nations must increase production every year, regardless 
of whether it is needed. This dynamic is driving climate change and 
ecological breakdown. High-income economies, and the corporations and 
wealthy classes that dominate them, are mainly responsible for this 
problem and consume energy and materials at unsustainable rates1,2.

Yet many industrialized countries are now struggling to grow their 
economies, given economic convulsions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, 
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resource scarcities and stagnating 
productivity improvements. Governments face a difficult situation. Their 
attempts to stimulate growth clash with objectives to improve human 
well-being and reduce environmental damage.
Researchers in ecological economics call for a different approach — 
degrowth3. Wealthy economies should abandon growth of gross domestic 
product (GDP) as a goal, scale down destructive and unnecessary forms of 
production to reduce energy and material use, and focus economic 
activity around securing human needs and well-being. This approach, 
which has gained traction in recent years, can enable rapid 
decarbonization and stop ecological breakdown while improving social 
outcomes2. It frees up energy and materials for low- and middle-income 
countries in which growth might still be needed for development. 
Degrowth is a purposeful strategy to stabilize economies and achieve 
social and ecological goals, unlike recession, which is chaotic and 
socially destabilizing and occurs when growth-dependent economies fail 
to grow.

Reports this year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 
(IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity 
and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) suggest that degrowth policies should be 
considered in the fight against climate breakdown and biodiversity loss, 
respectively. Policies to support such a strategy include the following.

*Reduce less-necessary production.* This means scaling down destructive 
sectors such as fossil fuels, mass-produced meat and dairy, fast 
fashion, advertising, cars and aviation, including private jets. At the 
same time, there is a need to end the planned obsolescence of products, 
lengthen their lifespans and reduce the purchasing power of the rich.

*Improve public services.* It is necessary to ensure universal access to 
high-quality health care, education, housing, transportation, Internet, 
renewable energy and nutritious food. Universal public services can 
deliver strong social outcomes without high levels of resource use.
*
**Introduce a green jobs guarantee*. This would train and mobilize 
labour around urgent social and ecological objectives, such as 
installing renewables, insulating buildings, regenerating ecosystems and 
improving social care. A programme of this type would end unemployment 
and ensure a just transition out of jobs for workers in declining 
industries or ‘sunset sectors’, such as those contingent on fossil 
fuels. It could be paired with a universal income policy.

*Reduce working time. *This could be achieved by lowering the retirement 
age, encouraging part-time working or adopting a four-day working week. 
These measures would lower carbon emissions and free people to engage in 
care and other welfare-improving activities. They would also stabilize 
employment as less-necessary production declines.

*Enable sustainable development. *This requires cancelling unfair and 
unpayable debts of low- and middle-income countries, curbing unequal 
exchange in international trade and creating conditions for productive 
capacity to be reoriented towards achieving social objectives...
Some countries, regions and cities have already introduced elements of 
these policies. Many European nations guarantee free health care and 
education; Vienna and Singapore are renowned for high-quality public 
housing; and nearly 100 cities worldwide offer free public transport. 
Job guarantee schemes have been used by many nations in the past, and 
experiments with basic incomes and shorter working hours are under way 
in Finland, Sweden and New Zealand.

But implementing a more comprehensive strategy of degrowth — in a safe 
and just way — faces five key research challenges, as we outline here.
*
**Remove dependencies on growth*
Economies today depend on growth in several ways. Welfare is often 
funded by tax revenues. Private pension providers rely on stock-market 
growth for financial returns. Firms cite projected growth to attract 
investors. Researchers need to identify and address such ‘growth 
dependencies’ on a sector-by-sector basis.

For example, the ‘fiduciary duty’ of company directors needs to be 
changed. Instead of prioritizing the short-term financial interests of 
shareholders, companies should prioritize social and environmental 
benefits and take social and ecological costs into account. Sectors such 
as social care and pensions need secure funding mechanisms for public 
providers, and better regulation and dismantling of perverse financial 
incentives for private providers4.

Balancing the national economy will require new macro-economic models 
that combine economic, financial, social and ecological variables. 
Models such as LowGrow SFC (developed by T.J. and P.A.V.), EUROGREEN and 
MEDEAS are already being used to project the impacts of degrowth 
policies, including redistributive taxes, universal public services and 
reductions in working time...
But these models typically focus on a single country and fail to take 
into account cross-border dynamics, such as movements of capital and 
currency. For example, if markets are spooked by low growth in one 
country, some companies might move their capital overseas, which could 
adversely affect the original country’s currency and increase borrowing 
costs. Conditions such as these posed severe financial problems for 
Argentina in 2001 and Greece in 2010. International cooperation for 
tighter border control of capital movements needs to be considered and 
the effects modelled.

*Fund public services*
New forms of financing will be needed to fund public services without 
growth. Governments must stop subsidies for fossil-fuel extraction. They 
should tax ecologically damaging industries such as air travel and meat 
production. Wealth taxes can also be used to increase public resources 
and reduce inequality.

Governments that issue their own currency can use this power to finance 
social and ecological objectives. This approach was used to bail out 
banks after the global financial crisis of 2007–8 and to pay for 
furlough schemes and hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic5.

Inflationary risks must be managed, if increased demand outstrips the 
productive capacity of the economy. Earmarking currency for public 
services reduces cost-of-living inflation. But a degrowth strategy can 
also reduce demand for material goods — for example through progressive 
taxation, by encouraging shared and collaborative consumption, 
incentivizing renovation and repair, and supporting community-based 
services.

Another risk is that when states or central banks issue currency, it can 
increase the service payments on government debt. Research suggests that 
managing this risk requires careful coordination of fiscal policy (how 
much governments tax and spend) and monetary policy (how price stability 
is maintained)6. Modelling and empirical research is needed to shed 
light on the pros and cons of innovative monetary policy mechanisms — 
such as a ‘tiered reserve system’, which reduces the interest rate on 
government debt.

*Manage working-time reductions*
Trials of shorter working hours have generally reported positive 
outcomes. These include less stress and burnout and better sleep among 
employees while maintaining productivity7. Most trials have focused on 
the public sector, mainly in northern Europe. But private companies in 
North America, Europe and Australasia have run trials of four-day weeks, 
with similar results8. However, the companies were self-selecting, and 
research is needed to test whether this approach can succeed more 
widely, for example outside the white-collar industries that dominate 
the trials.
Barriers to implementing reduced hours need to be understood and 
addressed. Per-head staff costs, such as capped tax contributions and 
health insurance, make it more expensive for employers to increase staff 
numbers. Personal debt might encourage employees to work longer hours, 
although recent trials showed no evidence of this7,8.

The understanding of collective impacts is also limited. Outcomes from 
France’s experiments with a 35-hour week have been mixed: although many 
people benefited, some lower-paid and less-skilled workers experienced 
stagnant wages and more-intense work9. Such pressures need to be studied 
and addressed. Assumptions that reduced hours result in more employment 
need to be tested in different sectors and settings. Recent evidence 
suggests that workers can maintain productivity by reorganizing their 
work7,8.

Links between hours of work and carbon emissions also need to be 
established10. Although less commuting lowers energy use and carbon 
emissions during compressed work weeks, behaviours during three-day 
weekends remain underexplored. More travel or shopping during free time 
could increase emissions, but these effects could be mitigated if 
production in problem sectors is scaled down.

*Reshape provisioning systems*
No country currently meets the basic needs of its residents 
sustainably1. Affluent economies use more than their fair share of 
resources2, whereas lower-income countries are likely to need to use 
more. Researchers need to study how provisioning systems link resource 
use with social outcomes, for both physical systems (infrastructure and 
technology) and social ones (governments and markets).

Bottom-up studies suggest that better provisioning systems could deliver 
decent living standards with much less energy use than is required 
today11. These studies don’t fully account for institutions such as the 
state, and are likely to be underestimates. Top-down studies, which do 
factor in such institutions, suggest that more energy is required to 
meet human needs12. But these studies are unable to separate out 
wasteful consumption such as big cars or yachts, and are thus likely to 
be overestimates...
Researchers need to reconcile these approaches, and consider resources 
besides energy, including materials, land and water. They need to 
examine the provisioning systems for housing, transportation, 
communication, health care, education and food. What social and 
institutional changes would improve provisioning? What types of 
provision have the most beneficial social and environmental outcomes? 
Such research can be done using empirical observation, as well as 
through modelling.

Take housing, for example. In many parts of the world, property markets 
cater to developers, landlords and financiers. This contributes to 
segregation and inequality, and can push working people out of city 
centres so they are dependent on cars, which increases fossil-fuel 
emissions. Alternative approaches include public or cooperative housing, 
and a financial system that prioritizes housing as a basic need rather 
than as an opportunity for profit.
*
**Political feasibility and opposition*
Growth is often treated as an arbiter of political success. Few leaders 
dare to challenge GDP growth. But public attitudes are changing. Polls 
in Europe show that the majority of people prioritize well-being and 
ecological objectives over growth (see go.nature.com/3ugg8kt). Polls in 
the United States and the United Kingdom show support for job guarantees 
and working-time reductions (see go.nature.com/3uyhdjv and 
go.nature.com/3y8ujz5). The large numbers of workers who have left their 
jobs in movements such as the US Great Resignation or the Lying Flat 
protest groups in China show there is demand for shorter working hours 
and more humane and meaningful work. Nonetheless, political parties that 
have put forward degrowth ideas have received limited support in 
elections. That begs the question: where would the drive for degrowth 
policy come from?

Social movements and cultural change brewing below the surface often 
precede and catalyse political transformation. Social scientists should 
examine four areas. First, they need to identify changing attitudes and 
practices using polls and focus groups...
econd, they should learn from sustainable ‘transition towns’, 
cooperatives, co-housing projects or other social formations that 
prioritize post-growth modes of living. The experiences of countries 
that have had to adapt to low-growth conditions — such as Cuba after the 
fall of the Soviet Union, and Japan — also hold lessons.

Third, researchers should study political movements that are aligned 
with degrowth values — from La Via Campesina, the international 
peasants’ movement that advocates food sovereignty and agroecological 
methods, to the municipalist and communalist movements and governments 
in progressive cities such as Barcelona or Zagreb, which promote 
policies favouring social justice and the commons. Better understanding 
is needed of the obstacles faced by governments that have ecological 
ambitions, such as those elected this year in Chile and Colombia.

Fourth, a better grasp is needed of the political and economic interests 
that might oppose or support degrowth. For example, how do groups such 
as the think tanks, corporations, lobbyists and political parties that 
work to support elite interests organize, nationally and 
internationally, to scupper progressive economic and social policy? The 
role of the media in shaping pro-growth attitudes remains underexplored. 
Given the links between economic growth and geopolitical power, 
individual nations might be disinclined to act alone, for fear of facing 
competitive disadvantage, capital flight or international isolation. 
This ‘first mover’ problem raises the question of whether, and under 
what conditions, high-income countries might cooperate towards a 
degrowth transition.

*What next?*
Government action is crucial. This is a challenge, because those in 
power have ideologies rooted in mainstream neoclassical economics, and 
tend to have limited exposure to researchers who explore economics from 
other angles. Political space will be needed to debate and understand 
alternatives, and to develop policy responses. Forums working on this 
include the Wellbeing Economy Alliance, the Growth in Transition 
movement in Austria, the European Parliament’s Post-Growth conference 
initiative and the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on Limits to Growth...
trong social movements are necessary. Forms of decision-making that are 
decentralized, small-scale and direct, such as citizens’ assemblies, 
would help to highlight public views about more equitable economies13.

Addressing the question of how to prosper without growth will require a 
massive mobilization of researchers in all disciplines, including 
open-minded economists, social and political scientists, modellers and 
statisticians. Research on degrowth and ecological economics needs more 
funding, to increase capacity to address necessary questions. And the 
agenda needs attention and debate in major economic, environmental and 
climate forums, such as the United Nations conferences.

A March 2022 editorial in this journal argued that it is time to move 
beyond a ‘limits to growth’ versus ‘green growth’ debate. We agree. In 
our view, the question is no longer whether growth will run into limits, 
but rather how we can enable societies to prosper without growth, to 
ensure a just and ecological future. Let’s pave the way.

Nature 612, 400-403 (2022)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-04412-x
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-04412-x



/[The news archive - looking back at polling influencer trying to redeem 
himself - Luntz moved media audience away from term"Global warming"  
onto the the benign and friendly "Climate Change"]/
/*December 14, */
December 14, 2009: Frank Luntz--the author of an infamous 1990s memo 
encouraging Republicans to place rhetorical emphasis on alleged 
uncertainties in climate science--appears on the Fox News Channel and 
declares that according to his own polling, Americans want action on 
climate change.

http://youtu.be/PXoB3xCSgi8



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