[✔️] July 8, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*July 8, 2022*/

/[ emotions are blowing up  ]/
*Climate activism has so far been fairly peaceful: here’s why that might 
change*
July 7, 2022
Rob Jubb, Alex McLaughlin
Climate change is perhaps the most serious threat to life on this 
planet. According to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change (IPPC), climate change has already caused heatwave, 
drought and flood deaths across the world; contributed to the spread of 
potentially fatal diseases including cholera; and displaced people from 
their homes by putting already strained social and political systems 
under greater stress.

Yet, as severe as they already are, climate change’s effects will 
escalate significantly in the future. Global average temperature has 
increased by 1.1℃ since 1800, but current energy policies will lead to 
warming of between 2.5℃ and 2.9℃ by the end of this century.

It’s unsurprising, then, that many policymakers see climate change as a 
threat to national security, and more and more is being written on the 
relationship between climate change and conflict. What we find 
surprising, however, is that groups drawing attention to the risks 
climate change poses – and how governments are failing to address them – 
are also being considered security risks.
For instance, guidance from the British government’s anti-radicalisation 
scheme Prevent suggested that school and university students who have 
expressed interest in Extinction Rebellion (XR) should be referred to 
the scheme, along with those who expressed admiration for terrorist 
groups like Islamic State or the neo-Nazi organisation National Action.

In fact, the climate movement so far has been strikingly peaceful. The 
school climate strikes, for example, involved a series of peaceful mass 
demonstrations, with an estimated 1.7 million people taking part 
globally in 2019. XR also makes nonviolence central to its strategy, 
referring to influential research by political scientists Erica 
Chenoweth and Maria Stephan on the effectiveness of peaceful protest.

People lie separately on the ground alongside a sign reading 'For Love 
Of Our Planet'
XR champion peaceful protest. Shutterstock
These two academics suggest that peaceful mass movements are more likely 
to achieve their goals than violent movements, partly because it’s much 
easier for them to recruit active supporters.

In particular, XR has focused on Chenoweth’s and Stephan’s claim that 
peaceful mass movements almost invariably succeed once 3.5% of the 
population become involved. Framing the climate movement as a security 
threat is thus out of step with its general, if sometimes strategic, 
commitment to pacifism.

*A radical flank*
Climate protest in the future, however, might not be so committed to 
nonviolence. In his provocatively titled book How to Blow Up a Pipeline, 
geographer Andreas Malm argues that the climate movement must diversify 
its tactics to encompass more confrontational forms of action, including 
sabotaging parts of the fossil fuel economy.

According to Malm, historical claims about the strategic merits of mass 
peaceful civil disobedience tend to downplay the significance of the 
broader political context in which it operates.

A closer look shows that peaceful protests hailed as producing political 
change tend to coincide with more direct and sometimes violent tactics 
fighting for the same outcome. This creates a contrast between a 
“reasonable” mainstream with a “radical” flank in a way that can be 
conducive to change.

For example, the civil rights protests during the 1950s and 1960s in the 
US deep south were extremely controversial at the time, partly due to 
the public disorder they caused. However, Martin Luther King Jr, their 
most prominent leader, was able to contrast his demands with those made 
by more radical figures. In his famous letter from a Birmingham jail, 
King suggested that negotiating with him was necessary to avoid 
confrontation with them.

This message about the importance of varying protest tactics seems to 
have found an audience among climate activists. At COP26 in Glasgow, as 
well as engaging in mass public protest, climate activists deflated the 
tires of SUVs across the city – a signature Malm tactic.

*Uncivil disobedience*
Some of the strategies Malm suggests – like blockading coal plants, 
disabling SUVs and tree-spiking (hammering rods into tree trunks to 
damage chainsaws and prevent logging) – don’t conform to ideas of civil 
disobedience as public, polite and peaceful. But perhaps they shouldn’t.

Climate change is already causing immense human suffering, and it will 
only cause more in the future. If one reason to obey the law is to help 
prevent human misery, then, as political scientist Candice Delmas 
argues, one reason to disobey it can also be to help prevent human misery.

The same goes for other arguments for obeying the law. If the law is 
authoritative because it promotes social cooperation, then it loses at 
least some of its authority when it undermines cooperation by failing to 
prevent climate change – a phenomenon set to destabilise many of the 
institutions and infrastructure on which we depend. When the stakes are 
so high, damage to, or even destruction of, property can be seen by some 
to be legitimate.

Uncivil disobedience of the sort Malm suggests cannot be considered 
terrorism, or equivalent to it. Terrorism involves the threat of serious 
physical harm. Deflating the tyres of an SUV is not the same thing as 
setting it on fire.

As the world warms, climate activists may well turn towards directly 
disrupting and damaging fossil fuel infrastructure. If they do, they’ll 
be subject to legal sanctions – just as many civilly disobedient 
protesters already are.

It would still be far from appropriate to categorise climate activists 
as threats similar to, for example, the murderers of the MPs Jo Cox and 
Sir David Amiss. But some protestors may be running out of patience for 
peaceful means when it comes to the critical issue of climate change.
https://theconversation.com/climate-activism-has-so-far-been-fairly-peaceful-heres-why-that-might-change-185625

- -

/[  A different kind of blowing up  ] /
*Chinese authorities blow up dam to release floodwaters | China Flood | 
The specifications*
Jul 7, 2022  Chinese authorities blow up dam to release floodwaters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiiAF29cYhk



/[  money rules  ]/
*‘Insane’ lithium price bump threatens EV fix for climate change*
The price of the metal used in batteries for electric cars has risen 
six-fold since the start of the year.

Lithium, the highly reactive silver-white metal that is a crucial 
ingredient in batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), is becoming 
much more expensive – and fast.

In April, as prices hit a record $78,000 a tonne, Tesla CEO Elon Musk 
floated the idea of the electric carmaker mining and refining the 
lightweight metal itself due to the “insane” increase in costs.
- -
Despite retreating from its April highs, the price of Lithium has jumped 
more than 600 percent since the start of the year, from about $10,000 
per metric tonne in January to $62,000 in June, according to Benchmark 
Market Intelligence. Citigroup has predicted more “extreme” price hikes 
on the way.
The soaring prices have been driven by surging demand for light-duty 
EVs, sales of which doubled to 6.3 million units last year and are 
projected to hit 26.7 million units by 2030, according to Platts Analytics.
- -
Tesla has raised its prices by more than 20 percent since last year, 
putting its vehicles out of reach of millions of potential buyers.
“The main takeaway here is that the EV market faces many decades of 
strong, compound growth,” Fastmarkets said in its most recent lithium 
report.

“For any supply chain that relies on getting raw materials out of the 
ground, it is going to be a supreme challenge to keep up with year after 
year of high compound growth.”

Lithium production will need to quadruple by 2030 to keep up with 
expected demand, according to Fastmarkets.

*Mines in the pipeline*
The lead time of three to seven years for new lithium mines and 
evaporation ponds to become productive means that any additional supply 
is likely to come from Australia, the world’s leading producer.

Two enormous new mines are already in the pipeline in Western Australia, 
the lithium mining capital of the world, and on the Cox Peninsula, near 
Darwin, where exploratory drillers have found 7.4 million tonnes of 
lithium concentrate – just shy of the 7.9 million tonnes of proven 
reserves in the United States.

China, the world’s largest EV market, is also ramping up production.
- -
Lithium mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo have become notorious 
for using child labour, while Amnesty International has documented 
violations of Indigenous rights by lithium miners in Argentina.

The looming lithium crisis has also unleashed a wave of resource 
nationalism, particularly in the lithium “triangle” of South America 
consisting of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, which holds 60 percent of 
known reserves, according to the US Geological Survey.

Bolivia’s socialist government is hamstringing foreign investment in its 
vast reserves, which are the largest on earth. Stricter licensing 
requirements and nationalisation of water resources are on the cards in 
Chile, while Mexico is considering nationalising its lithium deposits...
- -
At the US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 
scientists are stress-testing a new technology that uses magnetic 
nanoparticles to capture critical materials like lithium from wastewater.

Preliminary results suggest if just a quarter of the lithium in water 
pumped in oil and gas extraction in North America is collected, it would 
equal all the lithium mined globally last year.
- -
“There are plenty of applications where it is not possible to have a 
battery running at 130C. Cobalt, which is half the cost of an EV 
battery, is mined in areas with child labour concerns. These are common 
themes through all battery chemistry – there are advantages and 
disadvantages for different solutions, which is why there isn’t going to 
be an ‘either-or’ solution. But for any application where weight is 
important, lithium is impossible to beat.”

Hill believes recycling is the only way to solve the lithium crunch, 
pointing to the widespread use of recycled lead-acid car batteries.

“It is definitely harder as there are more metals to separate. But it is 
not impossible. The challenge will be about making it economical. It’s 
not just a scientific issue. It’s an industrial issue, too,” he said.

“Demand for lithium is not going to disappear any time soon. We are 
going into a commodity super-cycle as we electrify everything. So we’re 
going to have to find a balance between the environmental damage of 
mining lithium, compared to the environmental damage of putting more 
carbon into the air.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/7/7/lithiums-insane-costs-threaten-ev-fix-for-climate-change



/[  Wildfire watch  ] /
*Study confirms extreme wildfires of 2020 in Western Oregon were not 
unprecedented*
Bill Gabbert -- July 6, 2022
By U.S. Forest Service

When the 2020 Labor Day Fires torched more than 300,000 hectares over 
the span of two weeks in parts of western Oregon and Washington, they 
devastated communities and put the threat of west-side fires squarely 
into focus. A new study led by the USDA Forest Service’s Pacific 
Northwest Research Station examines the context surrounding the fires 
and offers insight into the historical role of large, high-severity 
fires—and the future of wildfires—west of the Cascades.

“Without a doubt, the 2020 Labor Day Fires were a significant fire event 
on many levels, and one that was a wake-up call for the region,” said 
Matthew Reilly, research forester and lead author of the study, which is 
published in the journal Ecosphere. “The goal of our study was to help 
understand how this event compared to past west-side fires so that we 
can help inform adaptation strategies aimed at preventing or mitigating 
similar events in the future.”..
Drawing from a literature review, extensive historical data, and new 
analysis, Reilly and his co-authors explored five questions surrounding 
the 2020 Labor Day Fires: how the 2020 fires compared with historical 
fires in the region, the role of weather and climate, the effects of 
forest management and pre-fire forest structure on burn severity, the 
impacts of these fires on west-side landscapes, and what can be done to 
adapt to similar fires in the future. Ultimately, they found that the 
2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires on the west 
side, both in terms of their timing and size and the cause of their 
rapid spread—dry conditions combined with strong east winds.

“Our findings suggest that these severe fires are normal for west-side 
landscapes when you look at historical fire regimes at longer time 
scales,” Reilly said. In fact, the researchers identified similarly 
large historical fires in the early 20th century under similar weather 
conditions—some even burning right around Labor Day—in some of the same 
locations that burned in 2020.

Because of the abundant and productive forests characteristic of the 
west side and the driving role of extreme winds, conventional fire 
management tools used in dry forests, like prescribed burning and fuels 
management, will likely be less effective in west-side forests than they 
are on the east side. This is particularly the case, their study found, 
when fire weather conditions are as extreme as those witnessed during 
the 2020 fires.

“Our study indicates we need very different approaches and adaptation 
strategies in west-side forests compared to those we use in dry 
forests,” Reilly said.

The study was conducted as part of the Pacific Northwest Research 
Station’s ongoing West-side Fire Research Initiative, which was launched 
in 2019 to develop science-based tools to help resource managers respond 
to wildfire risk in west-side forests. The study’s coauthors are from 
the Washington State Department of Natural Resources, University of 
Washington, Oregon State University, and USDA Forest Service’s Pacific 
Northwest Region.

*Highlights*

The 2020 Labor Day Fires were much larger and more severe than others in 
the recent record, but they were remarkably consistent with many 
historical fires. Strong east winds and dry conditions are the common 
denominators in both large historical fires of the past and the 2020 fires.
Forest management and fuel treatments are unlikely to influence fire 
severity in the most extreme wind-driven fires, like the 2020 Labor Day 
Fires. Pre-fire forest structure, largely the result of previous forest 
management activities, had little effect on burn severity when east 
winds were strong during the 2020 fires.
Fuel treatments around homes and infrastructure may still be beneficial 
under low and moderate fire-weather conditions.
Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future in west-side 
communities might, instead, focus on ignition prevention, fire 
suppression, and community preparedness.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2022/07/06/study-confirms-extreme-wildfires-of-2020-in-western-oregon-were-not-unprecedented/



[ Metaphors are everywhere you look ]
*The co-created challenges and opportunities of climate change and 
COVID-19 interactions*
Suchandrima Bhowmik - - Jul 7 2022
Reviewed by Danielle Ellis, B.Sc.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that emerged in China in 2019 was 
declared by the World Health Organization as a global pandemic in early 
2020. On the other hand, climate change is a shift in weather and 
temperature patterns mainly caused by human activities. Climate change 
can lead to major health issues and socio-economic inequities worldwide. 
These two crises together can adversely impact both the environment and 
society.
*Background*
Since COVID-19 and climate change are not specific geographically, they 
require sustainable and practical strategies to prepare the societies 
globally as well as adapt to the current crisis. Effective strategies 
need to be developed to reduce the consequences of both climate change 
and COVID-19 on a global scale.

Many recent studies focus on the association of the COVID-19 pandemic 
with climate change. However, most of these studies involved only the 
localized effects of COVID-19 and climate change. Previous studies have 
focused on the impact of climate change and COVID-19 on energy, economy, 
environment, and agriculture, as well as on particular geographic 
regions. An overview of these studies is required to get a broader 
picture of the impact of climate change and COVID-19 on specific sectors 
and geographic regions.

A new review published in Science of the Total Environment aimed to 
highlight the opportunities as well as challenges of the interaction of 
COVID-19 and climate change.

*Interactions of climate change and COVID-19*
The association between COVID-19 and climate change is complex and hard 
to predict. Previous studies involved only local issues or focused on a 
specific factor. The current review includes over 110 recent studies to 
determine the interactions between COVID-19 and climate change in 
several sectors as well as regions.

Eight different themes on the joint COVID-19 and climate change 
interactions have been reported, including food systems, policy, 
environment, society, economy, global cooperation, energy, technology, 
and health systems.

*Impact on the economy*
Climate change and COVID-19 have led to an economic crisis worldwide. 
Economic recovery plans associated with global decarbonization targets 
for the pandemic must be designed by governments globally. Carbon 
pricing, if implemented as carbon trading schemes or carbon tax, can be 
useful for integrating climate change alleviation schemes into COVID-19 
recovery plans. COVID-19 recovery plans also need investments in 
education, infrastructure, or research and development.

Another important focus is the tourism sector which impacts the global 
economy. The impact of COVID-19 and climate on tourism highlights the 
need for shifting the tourism industry from high-resource consumption to 
an environmentally friendly model. Also, local communities that depend 
on rural tourism must be prepared for the challenges due to climate 
change. This would, in turn, help develop risk management plans to 
enhance tourism industry resilience against emerging threats.

*Impact on energy and technology*
Climate change and COVID-19 have highlighted the requirement for 
efficient and reliable power access by individuals and organizations. 
The pressure of the pandemic on the distribution systems has also 
impacted conventional energy sources. This led to the shifting focus 
toward green energy and renewable energy sources. Governments should 
develop long-term policies and short-term plans to improve the price 
competitiveness of renewable energy sources against traditional sources. 
Moreover, using renewable energy and technological advancements can 
improve the bio-economy, lower carbon emissions, transform waste into 
usable energy, and ensure a sustainable future.

*Impact on the environment...*
The work and travel restrictions due to the pandemic led to many 
environmental improvements such as a decrease in emission of greenhouse 
gases, an increase in visibility, and a decrease in particulate matter 
as well as air pollution. However, lockdowns during the early phase of 
the pandemic led to increased ozone (O3) concentrations in many places. 
Huge O3 concentrations can lead to increased cardiovascular and 
respiratory diseases. Moreover, several studies reported that weather 
conditions impacted the spread of COVID-19. They also reported that 
COVID-19-related anthropogenic emissions could affect vegetation 
communities. Therefore, sustainable environmental strategies must be 
implemented to reduce global emissions during the post-pandemic era.

*Impact on food system*
COVID-19 and climate change have impacted food security and agriculture 
globally. Extreme weather conditions due to climate change and 
disruption of the supply chain due to the pandemic had adversely 
impacted farmers. The establishment of local food systems, 
prioritization of climate-smart agriculture, and innovative solutions 
are recommended by governments to address the situation.

*Impact on health system*
COVID-19 and climate change can adversely affect people's mental and 
physical health. It can also lead to depression, anxiety, obesity, 
stress, and skin disease in the elderly, children, women, and people 
with existing conditions. Green medical approaches must be implemented 
to address these concerns. Furthermore, improvement of green 
infrastructure, facilitation of different working modes, promotion of 
active transport models, and the development of policies for conserving 
biodiversity and ecosystems are recommended.

*Impact on policy and management*
Policies that are easy to adjust, durable, based on evidence, contain 
various global efforts, and expert advice must be adopted to develop 
sustainable environmental strategies. They should also include 
communication strategies that influence behavioral changes, overcome 
inequalities, address physiological bias, and avoid delays. Land-use 
planning and control should also be considered to improve resilience and 
reduce risks.

*Impact on community and society*
Community leadership is important in combating the COVID-19 and climate 
change crises. However, a difference in the level of community support 
has been observed for them, with COVID-19 being considered the more 
direct threat. Climate change has also been reported to increase 
COVID-19 concerns among several communities. Community-based strategies 
can therefore help address important issues if they are integrated into 
national as well as international policy decisions. Also, since COVID-19 
and climate change are overlapping crises, preventive measures for 
COVID-19 must help mitigate climate change.

*Global action*
Actions against COVID-19 and climate change crises at national or local 
government levels might not be adequate to control and overcome them 
globally. In this regard, knowledge regarding the geographic 
distribution of COVID-19-related deaths and climate change might be 
important. The difference in the distribution of deaths geographically 
indicates that climate change ad COVID-19 impact different parts of the 
world. Enforcement of international multidisciplinary collaborations, 
improvement of public awareness, effective health plan promotion, and 
effective management strategies are important steps to control these two 
crises.

*Conclusion*
The co-occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change adversely 
impacted the economy, health, food system, energy, environment, and 
communities globally. Global decision-making and collective action are 
required through breakthroughs in leadership in science. However, these 
two crises are not similar in all aspects. Further studies are required 
to develop long-term management strategies against climate change and 
COVID-19.

*Journal reference:*
Khojasteh, D. et al. (2022). Climate change and COVID-19: 
Interdisciplinary perspectives from two global crises. Science of the 
Total Environment. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157142. 
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722042395.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20220707/The-co-created-challenges-and-opportunities-of-climate-change-and-COVID-19-interactions.aspx


/[ Opinion video from Rebecca Watson ]/
*SCOTUS Hopes You Like the Taste of Acid Rain*
Jul 7, 2022

    One of the only good aspects of our democracy is that it makes room
    for politicians to understand that they are not necessarily the
    experts in a particular field, and they are not necessarily free
    from conflicts of interest. A person cannot be an expert on writing
    and passing legislation, healthcare, assault weapons, animal
    welfare, libel law, and carbon emissions at the same time. Even
    Leonardo DaVinci didn’t know shit about women. So a smart person, a
    good politician, knows what they don’t know, and they know to trust
    the experts. In this case, while their record has been anything but
    stellar, Congress has generally understood that the scientists,
    engineers, and specialists at the Environmental Protection Agency
    are the experts at protecting the environment. You know, the planet,
    that we all live on.

    So this is, to put it lightly, a disappointing result, particularly
    coming not quite a year after the latest IPCC report on climate
    change that found that drastic action is needed immediately to avoid
    turning our planet into a literal hellscape.

Links + transcript available at https://www.patreon.com/posts/68755193
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S4EIIpIar4



/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*July 8, 2012*/
July 8, 2012: On MSNBC's "Up," Chris Hayes points out the key role of 
right-wing media in furthering climate denialism.

http://mediamatters.org/video/2012/07/08/msnbcs-up-with-chris-hayes-explains-how-conserv/186989 


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