[✔️] May 9, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Mon May 9 10:19:00 EDT 2022
/*May 9, 2022*/
/[ scientists finding hope through action ]
/*How climate scientists keep hope alive as damage worsens*
By SETH BORENSTEIN
May 8, 2022
In the course of a single year, University of Maine climate scientist
Jacquelyn Gill lost both her mother and her stepfather. She struggled
with infertility, then during research in the Arctic, she developed
embolisms in both lungs, was transferred to an intensive care unit in
Siberia and nearly died. She was airlifted back home and later had a
hysterectomy. Then the pandemic hit.
Her trials and her perseverance, she said, seemed to make her a magnet
for emails and direct messages on Twitter “asking me how to be hopeful,
asking me, like, what keeps me going?”
Gill said she has accepted the idea that she is “everybody’s climate
midwife” and coaches them to hope through action...
- -
United Nations Environment Programme Director Inger Andersen said she
simply cannot do her job without being an optimist.
“I do not wish to sound naive in choosing to be the ‘realistic
optimist,’ but the alternative to being the realistic optimist is either
to hold one’s ears and wait for doomsday or to party while the orchestra
of the Titanic plays,” Andersen said. “I do not subscribe to either.”
Dr. Kristina Goff works in the intensive care unit at University of
Texas Southwestern Medical Center and said at times she felt overwhelmed
during the pandemic. She keeps a file folder at home of “little notes
that say ‘hey you made a difference.’”
“I think half of the battle in my job is learning to take what could be
a very overwhelming anxiety and turn it into productivity and
resilience,” Goff said. “You just have to focus on these little areas
where you can make a difference.”...
- -
The coping technique these scientists have in common is doing something
to help. The word they often use is “agency.” It’s especially true for
climate researchers — tarred as doomsayers by political types who reject
the science.
Gill, who describes herself as a lifelong cheerleader, has also battled
with depression. She said what’s key in fighting eco-anxiety is that
“regular depression and regular anxiety tools work just as well. And so
that’s why I tell people: ‘Be a doer. Get other there. Don’t just
doomscroll.’ There are entry level ways that anyone, literally anyone,
can help out. And the more we do that, ‘Oh, it actually works,’ it turns
out.”
It’s not just about individual actions, like giving up air travel, or
becoming a vegetarian, it’s about working together with other people in
a common effort, Gill said. Individual action is helpful on climate
change, but is not enough, she said. To bend the curve of rising
temperatures and the buildup of heat-trapping gases, steady collective
action, such as the youth climate activism movement and voting, gives
true agency.
“I think maybe that’s helped stave off some of this hopelessness,” she
said. “I go to a scientific meeting and I look around at the thousands
of scientists that are working on this. And I’m like ‘Yeah, we’re doing
this.’”
Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini said
that, at 35, he figures it’s his relative youth that gives him hope.
“When I think about would could be, I gain a sense of optimism and
create an attitude that this is something I can do something about,”
Gensini said.
The U.N.’s Andersen is a veteran of decades of work on ecological issues
and thinks this experience has made her optimistic.
“I have seen shifts on other critical environmental issues such as
banning of toxic material, better air quality standards, the repair of
the ozone hole, the phase-out of leaded petrol and much more,” Andersen
said. “I know that hard work, underpinned by science, underpinned by
strong policy and yes, underpinned by multilateral and activist action,
can lead to change.”
Deke Arndt, chief of climate science and services at the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Center for
Environmental Information, said what buoys him with an overwhelming
optimism is his personal faith, and remembering all the people who have
helped his family over the generations — through the Dust Bowl for his
grandparents and through infertility and then neonatal issues for his son.
“We’ve experienced the miracle of hands-on care from fellow human
beings,” Arndt said. “You kind of spend the rest of your life trying to
repay.”
“Where people are suffering not through their own purchase, that makes
me want to recommit as a scientist and a Catholic,” Arndt said. “We’ve
got to do as much as we can.”
What’s more, Gill and several others said, the science tells them that
it is not game over for Earth.
“The work that I do inherently lends me a sense of agency,” Gill said.
“As a paleo-ecologist (who studies the past) and climatologist, I have a
better sense of Earth’s resilience than a lot of people do.”...
- -
She tells people when they are anxious about climate change, “there’s
not going to be a win, a shining moment where we can declare success,”
but “it’s never going to be too late to act. It’s never going to be too
late to fix this.”
NOAA’s Arndt said the climate of the 20th century he grew up with is
gone forever. He grieves the loss of that, but also finds mourning
what’s gone “weirdly liberating.”
With climate change “we have to kind of hold hope and grief at the same
time, like they’re kind of twins that we’re cradling,” Maine’s Gill
said. “We have to both understand and witness what has happened and what
we’ve lost. And then fiercely commit to protecting what remains. And I
don’t think you can do that from a place of hopelessness.”
https://apnews.com/article/climate-scientists-optimism-d1f2de75f853af68fef4f5a7e3e69071/
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/[ if you live in the path, you're already prepared ]/
*As fires scorch New Mexico, the West braces for another hellish summer*
It’s only May, and the Calf Canyon fire is already the state’s
second-biggest on record...
- -
Climate change has amped up fires in recent years, with arid conditions
and hot temperatures scorching vegetation and fueling ones that burn
hotter and longer. The number of blazes that burn around the world could
rise 50 percent by the end of the century, according to a report from
the United Nations Environment Programme in February...
- -
“We’ve already burned more acreage than we do on average for an entire
season, and it’s now just the first week of May,” Brian Guyer, a
meteorologist at the Weather Service office in Albuquerque, told the
Washington Post. “Usually our biggest fires are in May and early June.”
https://grist.org/extreme-weather/new-mexico-wildfires-calf-canyon-fire-season-forecast/
- -
/[ Links for forecast maps ]/
*Wildfire smoke conditions and forecast*
Bill Gabbert -- May 8, 2022
In the cross hairs are New Mexico, Kansas, and Nebraska
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Wildfire-smoke-11-a.m.-MDT-May-8-2022.jpg
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Wildfire-smoke-forecast-1201-a.m.-MDTMay-9-2022.jpg
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Red-Flag-Warning-May-8-2022.jpg
https://wildfiretoday.com/2022/05/08/wildfire-smoke-conditions-and-forecast/
/[ From The Atlantic magazine ]/
*The World Has No Choice but to Care About India’s Heat Wave*
How the country meets an escalating demand for energy is a problem the
whole world must reckon with.
By Bill Spindle
- -
During my recent stop in New Delhi, the mercury topped 110 degrees for
two consecutive days, overwhelming the air conditioner in my rental
apartment. The maximum temperature last month in the capital, home to
more than 30 million people across the metro area, averaged more than
104 degrees. Even higher temperatures have been reported elsewhere: 111
in other regions of India, and to the west, in parts of Pakistan, above
120...
- -
All of this casts a pall over pressing global climate negotiations. This
fall, national delegates will assemble in Egypt for the 27th United
Nations climate-change gathering known as the Conference of the Parties.
Last year’s COP26, held in Glasgow, Scotland, ended on a sour note when
India, cheered on by China, forced a watering-down of the conference’s
ambitions to cut the use of coal (China and India are the world’s top
two users). The move came after India’s and other developing countries’
acute frustration over the abject failure, yet again, of the world’s
wealthier, industrialized nations to make good on a promise to deliver
$100 billion annually to help them deal with climate change.
Those tensions were already likely to resurface at COP27. This spring’s
heat wave in India is already ratcheting up the pressure. As Indian
officials are quick to note, the country may be the world’s
third-largest greenhouse-gas emitter now, but it is a latecomer, and its
share of the warming gases accumulated in the atmosphere is just 3.4
percent, compared with the U.S.’s 20 percent and fast-growing China’s
11.4 percent. Although the developing world played little part in
causing global warming, this is where the toll will be the worst.
A thundershower this week brought a welcome break in the weather here in
Punjab, at least for now. But without new commitment from the developed
world to bear more of the costs of climate change, India’s spring heat
wave will still be felt in the fall.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/india-heat-wave-climate-change/629786/
/[ IPCC said so...energy is what it is all about -- video ] /
*Massive global energy disruptions are coming. Brace yourself!*
May 8, 2022
Just Have a Think
Global energy disruptions are already in the news for all the wrong
reasons. But according to a new report from the International Renewable
Energy Agency, you ain't seen nothing yet! 15 million jobs are set to be
lost from the fossil fuel industry in the coming years, but more than
three times that will be created in the renewable sector. So, can we
transform our systems and lifestyles in time to cope with coming revolution?
IRENA Executive Summary
https://www.irena.org/publications/2022/Mar/World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PJB5ClES6w
- -
/[ here is the full report ]/
*World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022: 1.5°C Pathway*
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an
intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their
transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal
platform for international cooperation, a centre of excellence, and a
repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on
renewable energy.
https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Mar/IRENA_World_Energy_Transitions_Outlook_2022.pdf
- -
[ wood pellets ]
*The global Biomass scam.*
Feb 17, 2021
Just Have a Think
Biomass is held up by governments around the world as a net-zero carbon
alternative to fossil fuels. Just like most aspects of climate change
mitigation though, the reality is far more complicated than that. Some
studies have suggested it may actually be doing far more harm than good.
So what's going on?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJ_5sLWhVyI
/[ Book announcement ]/
*CLIMATE CHANGE AND YOUTH: FROM ANXIETY AND DEPRESSION TO ACTIVISM*
May 8, 2022
Climate Change and Youth: From Anxiety and Depression to Activism is a
pioneering book that opens the door to understanding the profound impact
climate change has on the mental health of today’s young people.
Chapters provide age-appropriate language for a meaningful dialogue and
resources for acknowledging children’s voices, separating fact from
fiction about environmental issues, encouraging participation in
activism, creating tools to reduce stress, and highlighting
inspirational role models and organizations for action. The book
includes firsthand examples, research, children’s work, interviews, and
terminology and share age-appropriate resources and websites relating to
climate change and challenges.
Filling a large void in the literature on this topic, this essential
resource offers techniques and tools that professionals and caring
adults can use to address the stresses associated with climate change
and offer strategies for hope, resilience, and action.
"I’m excited to share that my latest book, Climate Change and Youth:
Turning Grief and Anxiety into Activism, is now available here on
Amazon. I hope that it will open the door to understanding the
impact climate change has on the mental health of today’s youth.
Chapters provide age-appropriate language for a meaningful dialogue
and resources for separating fact from fiction about environmental
issues, encouraging participation in activism, and creating tools to
reduce stress. The book includes firsthand examples, research, and
interviews and shares age-appropriate resources relating to climate
change. This essential resource offers techniques and tools that
professionals and caring adults can use to address the stresses
associated with climate change and offer strategies for hope,
resilience, and action." - Linda Goldman
http://www.grievingchildren.net/books
/[//In Nature magazine, b//ig-name climate scientists warn that
confluence of models is over heating our conclusions ] /
04 May 2022
*Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem*
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to
how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community
should do the same.
Zeke Hausfather , Kate Marvel , Gavin A. Schmidt , John W.
Nielsen-Gammon & Mark Zelinka
Computer models that project future climates are widely used for
adaptation, mitigation and resilience planning. More than 50 such models
were assessed and compared in the latest round of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6), run by the World Climate
Research Programme1. It is crucial that researchers know the best way to
use those outputs to provide consistent information for climate science
and policy.
We are climate modellers and analysts who develop, distribute and use
these projections. We know scientists must treat them with great care.
Users beware: a subset of the newest generation of models are ‘too hot’2
and project climate warming in response to carbon dioxide emissions that
might be larger than that supported by other evidence3–7. Some suggest
that doubling atmospheric CO2 concentrations from pre-industrial levels
will result in warming above 5 °C, for example. This was not the case in
previous generations of simpler models...
- -
*Hot tail*
The largest source of uncertainty in global temperatures 50 or 100 years
from now is the volume of future greenhouse-gas emissions, which are
largely under human control. However, even if we knew precisely what
that volume would be, we would still not know exactly how warm the
planet would get. This is because human-caused global warming is an
enormous experiment that has no precedent, and feedback processes, such
as changes to cloud cover, will affect the pace and magnitude of warming...
- -
*What to do*
The broad and diverse community studying climate change and its impacts
urgently needs guidance on best practices for combining the outputs of
multiple climate models. One key message: the multi-model mean and
spread of the new ensemble (CMIP6) should not simply be used like the
old one (CMIP5).
We suggest that climate researchers consider the following options.
*First,* follow the lead of the AR6 to base analyses on global warming
levels rather than on time10. For example, instead of assessing changes
in rainfall by the year 2100, researchers could report changes at global
warming levels of 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C. This has several advantages. It
mirrors the policy discourse surrounding the Paris agreement targets of
1.5 °C and ‘well below 2 °C’. It is also largely independent of the
choice of future emissions scenario — despite some differences related
to the rate of warming and aerosol forcing, the world largely looks the
same at 2 °C, no matter how we get there. And, to a certain extent,
using global warming levels bypasses the need to select or weight CMIP6
models. Each model has something to offer at a given temperature, so the
full CMIP6 ensemble can be used. The IPCC Working Group I Interactive
Atlas is a good tool for calculating multi-model means at a particular
level of global warming (see https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch).
Global warming levels force a simple question: when will the world reach
a given level of warming? The answer, of course, is that it’s up to us.
Reporting that severe risks and catastrophic outcomes are projected to
occur at a particular time can give a false sense of inevitability and
obscure the role of human choice in determining the future. In
situations for which policymakers require information on timing, we
suggest using AR6 assessed warming to map projections for global warming
levels onto emissions scenarios, ensuring consistency between regional
studies and AR6.
*Second*, if the warming trajectory — rather than just the global
warming level — is important for a particular climate outcome, focus on
the subset of CMIP6 models that is most consistent with AR6
assessed-warming projections. We recommend screening out models with a
TCR that lies outside the ‘likely’ (66% likelihood range) of 1.4–2.2 °C.
The AR6 assessed-warming constraints are correlated with the TCR, so
this gives a good approximation to the assessed warming4. This approach
allows for an assessment of regional changes over time. Alternatively,
using a ‘likely’ 2.5–4 °C ECS screen also reproduces AR6 results well,
although at the expense of discarding 60% of the models in the CMIP6
ensemble, compared with 40% in the TCR screened subset.
*Third*, pick models that are best suited to the task at hand. The
problem is not that high sensitivity models exist, but rather that the
preponderance of them in the CMIP6 ensemble biases the mean and
uncertainty range upwards. If there is a real need to examine ‘hot tail’
risks — because there is still a more than 5% chance of ECS exceeding
5 °C8 — use a high-sensitivity subset. Ask whether changes in average
conditions or extreme events in the region of interest scale with the
global mean temperature. In cases in which model spread is not clearly
related to the spread in climate sensitivity, alternative metrics might
be appropriate.
Using the latest generation of models in a way that is consistent with
AR6 requires both an awareness of the problem, and easy-to-use
alternatives such as those we highlight here.
Nature 605, 26-29 (2022)
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2
/[ calm and friendly speaker -- a personal video ] /
*The Big Mess: Climate Change*
Jan 21, 2022
Saratoga Library
Major forces are in play that are endangering the natural world as we
know it. At the top of the list are the movement of organisms around the
planet, and, the biggest of them all, climate change. Both problems are
exacerbated by our relentlessly increasing human population. The
speaker, Al Hicks, a retired wildlife biologist with the New York State
Department of Environmental Conservation, spent much of his career
dealing with the consequences of the first, especially as it relates to
bats,and the disease white nose syndrome, and he will speak about those
efforts. He will also discuss the work of researchers that have been
raising the alarm about climate change for decades but, thanks to the
ceaseless actions of powerful interests, almost nothing has been done.
Our window for addressing climate change is rapidly closing, and we
cannot depend on the better angels of our elected officials alone to
counter the tide, and prevent a dismal future for our children. Whatever
good that comes out of the next few years will determine the future of
this planet. That good will depend on you.
Co-sponsored by the Adirondack Mountain Club. #ADK #AdirondackMountainClub
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaEWnGwAoNo
/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*May 9, 2014*/
In the New York Times, Timothy Egan observes that billionaire
climate-change deniers Charles and David Koch "...have used a big part
of [their] fortune to attack the indisputable science on climate change,
to buy junk scholars, to promote harmful legislation at the state level,
to go after clean, renewable energy like solar, and to try to kill the
greatest expansion of health care in decades. Money can’t buy love, but
it certainly can cause a lot of havoc.
"Yet, while these billionaire industrialists may win in the short term —
the Republican Party, their toady, is likely to pick up seats in the
House and may take control of the Senate as well — in the larger fight
against progress and modernity the Kochs have already lost."
http://nyti.ms/1fSAEPF
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