[✔️] April 8, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Air turbulence site, Baseball and global warming, wind and solar power trying to connect, track airline turbulence, Bio fuels

[R.Pauli]

/*April*//*8, 2023*/

/[ danger perceiving the real world - how to know the difference between 
a lie and a hallucination ]/
*ChatGPT is making up fake Guardian articles. Here’s how we’re responding*
Chris Moran
6 Apr 2023
The risks inherent in the technology, plus the speed of its take-up, 
demonstrate why it’s so vital that we keep track of it

Chris Moran is the Guardian’s head of editorial innovation
Why? Because it had never been written.

Luckily the researcher had told us that they had carried out their 
research using ChatGPT. In response to being asked about articles on 
this subject, the AI had simply made some up. Its fluency, and the vast 
training data it is built on, meant that the existence of the invented 
piece even seemed believable to the person who absolutely hadn’t written it.

Huge amounts have been written about generative AI’s tendency to 
manufacture facts and events. But this specific wrinkle – the invention 
of sources – is particularly troubling for trusted news organisations 
and journalists whose inclusion adds legitimacy and weight to a 
persuasively written fantasy. And for readers and the wider information 
ecosystem, it opens up whole new questions about whether citations can 
be trusted in any way, and could well feed conspiracy theories about the 
mysterious removal of articles on sensitive issues that never existed in 
the first place.

If this seems like an edge case, it’s important to note that ChatGPT, 
from a cold start in November, registered 100 million monthly users in 
January. TikTok, unquestionably a digital phenomenon, took nine months 
to hit the same level. Since that point we’ve seen Microsoft implement 
the same technology in Bing, putting pressure on Google to follow suit 
with Bard.

They are now implementing these systems into Google Workspace and 
Microsoft 365, which have a 90% plus share of the market between them. A 
recent study of 1,000 students in the US found that 89% have used 
ChatGPT to help with a homework assignment. The technology, with all its 
faults, has been normalised at incredible speed, and is now at the heart 
of systems that act as the key point of discovery and creativity for a 
significant portion of the world.

Two days ago our archives team was contacted by a student asking about 
another missing article from a named journalist. There was again no 
trace of the article in our systems. The source? ChatGPT.

It’s easy to get sucked into the detail on generative AI, because it is 
inherently opaque. The ideas and implications, already explored by 
academics across multiple disciplines, are hugely complex, the 
technology is developing rapidly, and companies with huge existing 
market shares are integrating it as fast as they can to gain competitive 
advantages, disrupt each other and above all satisfy shareholders.

But the question for responsible news organisations is simple, and 
urgent: what can this technology do right now, and how can it benefit 
responsible reporting at a time when the wider information ecosystem is 
already under pressure from misinformation, polarisation and bad actors.

This is the question we are currently grappling with at the Guardian. 
And it’s why we haven’t yet announced a new format or product built on 
generative AI. Instead, we’ve created a working group and small 
engineering team to focus on learning about the technology, considering 
the public policy and IP questions around it, listening to academics and 
practitioners, talking to other organisations, consulting and training 
our staff, and exploring safely and responsibly how the technology 
performs when applied to journalistic use.

In doing this we have found that, along with asking how we can use 
generative AI, we are reflecting more and more on what journalism is 
for, and what makes it valuable. We are excited by the potential, but 
our first task must be to understand it, evaluate it and decode its 
potential impact on the wider world.

In the next few weeks we’ll be publishing a clear and concise 
explanation of how we plan to employ generative AI. In the simplest 
terms, we will continue to hold ourselves to the highest journalistic 
standards and remain accountable to our readers and the world for the 
journalism we publish. While so much has changed in the last six months, 
in this crucial respect, nothing has changed at all.

Chris Moran is the Guardian’s head of editorial innovation
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/06/ai-chatgpt-guardian-technology-risks-fake-article 
[ carefully inspect this URL ]

- -

/[ addendum ]/
*Guardian Pick*
I do a lot of research work online and you really cannot believe how 
much ChatGPT invents sources. Literal pure inventions. In one paper, it 
provided 15 sources plus links. Written in the style of genuine journals 
and government material including links. None of the links it provided 
worked including for hard statistics it claimed to source from official 
government records. Virtually every reference it provides is a total 
fake. The worst part …
https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/162097609



/[ Baseball future must include more domed stadiums   ( that's domed, 
not doomed) ] /
*Going, going, gone: Study says climate change juicing homers*
Seth Borenstein
Seth is a science writer who covers climate change and other sciences.
sborenstein at ap.org
By SETH BORENSTEIN
April, 7, 2023
https://apnews.com/article/baseball-home-runs-climate-change-2f05bcb73155ae63b8b6344b42dba33b
Climate change is making major league sluggers into even hotter hitters, 
sending an extra 50 or so home runs a year over the fences, a new study 
found.

Hotter, thinner air that allows balls to fly farther contributed a tiny 
bit to a surge in home runs since 2010, according to a statistical 
analysis by Dartmouth College scientists published in Friday’s Bulletin 
of the American Meteorological Society. They analyzed 100,000 major 
league games and more than 200,000 balls put into play in the last few 
years along with weather conditions, stadiums and other factors.

“Global warming is juicing home runs in Major League Baseball,” said 
study co-author Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth climate scientist.

It’s basic physics.
- -
“We always felt that way for years,” Phillies president of baseball 
operations Dave Dombrowski said. “When it’s warmer, the ball travels 
more and they have scientific evidence to back that up.”

Homers have always varied by ballpark due to simple factors like 
dimensions that are friendlier to pitchers than hitters, or vice versa, 
as well as wind conditions.
- -
How many extra homers depends on how hot it gets, which depends on how 
much greenhouse gas the world spews from the burning of coal, oil and 
gas. Callahan ran different scenarios of carbon pollution through 
computer simulations.

In the worst-case warming trajectory – which some scientists say the 
world is no longer on based on recent emissions – there would be about 
192 warming-aided homers a year by 2050 and around 467 hot home runs by 
the year 2100. In more moderate carbon pollution scenarios, closer to 
where Earth is now tracking, there would be about 155 warming-aided 
homers a year by 2050 and around 255 extra dingers at the end of the 
century, Callahan said.

Because baseball has so many statistics and analytics, such as the 
tracking system Statcast, trends can be seen more easily than other 
effects of climate change, Mankin said. Still, the scientists can’t 
point to a single homer and say that’s a warming-aided home run. It’s a 
detail that can be only seen in the more than 63,000 homers hit since 2010.

Several climate scientists told The Associated Press that the study 
makes perfect sense and the statistics are analyzed properly, though 
they also point out factors other than climate change are in play and 
likely have bigger effects.

Both Texas A&M’s Andrew Dessler and University of Illinois’ Don Wuebbles 
said while the rise in home runs is interesting, it pales next to the 
issues of extreme weather and rising seas.

But Callahan said it actually brings home the threat of climate change 
in a unique way. Besides resulting in more home runs, a warming climate 
will likely require more domed stadiums because it will simply be too 
hot outside for humans in some places.

“Global warming is going to reshape so many of the things that we care 
about in so many pernicious and subtle ways,” Callahan said. “And the 
fact that we’ll get to go to fewer baseball games played in open air is 
not a civilization-ending crisis, but it is another sign of the way that 
we have reshaped our lives due to our greenhouse gas emissions.”
https://apnews.com/article/baseball-home-runs-climate-change-2f05bcb73155ae63b8b6344b42dba33b



/[  fossil fuel interests are thrilled by this ]/
*Wind and solar power generators wait in yearslong lines to put clean 
electricity on the grid, then face huge interconnection fees they can't 
afford*
APR 6 2023
Catherine Clifford
@CATCLIFFORD
@IN/CATCLIFFORD/KEY POINTS

    - To connect a new source of power to the U.S. electric grid
    requires energy generators to go through an application process with
    a regional transmission authority or utility.

    - That interconnection application process is often yearslong and
    requires upgrades to the grid, which are often so expensive that
    power generators have to back out.

    - The entire electric grid in the United States has installed
    capacity of about 1,250 gigawatts of power and there is currently
    2,020 gigawatts of energy capacity waiting in line to be connected...

*How does this situation get fixed?...*

Building sufficient transmission to support the energy transition is not 
necessarily a technical challenge as much as it is a political one.

"The type of coordination and planning that's required for this kind of 
large-scale transmission — this involves maybe multiple utilities, 
multiple grid operators, multiple states, cities, counties, everything, 
even the feds are all involved — and that is antithetical to the U.S. as 
structured as a decentralized nation," Sweezey told CNBC.

But the stakes are high.

"Even with all of the work, with all this great stuff that's in the IRA 
and all of the wind that is in the sails of decarbonization in the 
renewable industry, if you can't address transmission and 
infrastructure, then those goals aren't going to be met," White told CNBC.

"It really is the bottleneck that's preventing that from happening."

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/04/06/outdated-us-energy-grid-tons-of-clean-energy-stuck-waiting-in-line.html



/[   new Turbulence  ]/
*Airline passengers could be in for a rougher ride, thanks to climate 
change*
April 6, 2023
By Scott Neuman

In March, Ingrid Weisse, her husband and two young sons were aboard 
Alaska Airlines 889 from Portland, Ore., on a flight home to Hawaii when 
the Boeing 737 began buffeting so fiercely that it felt as if the plane 
would shake itself apart.

"It got really, really violent," says Weisse. There was lots of 
screaming in the cabin. A flight attendant was hit by an ice bucket that 
became a projectile. So many people got sick from the sudden changes in 
altitude that flight attendants had to hand out more vomit bags, she 
says. Midway through the approximately 45-minute ordeal, one frightened 
passenger yelled out, "Please tell us this is normal!"

For Weisse and her family — all frequent flyers — it was like nothing 
they had ever experienced. Clearly the passengers aboard their flight 
were rattled, but so were the flight attendants. Before disembarking in 
Honolulu, one of them confided to Weisse that it was the worst 
turbulence she'd seen in 23 years on the job...
- -
"Since satellites began observing in 1979, the amount of wind shear has 
grown by 15%" in the jet stream, he says, referring to a study he 
co-authored in 2019.

In a follow-up study using climate model simulations, Williams and 
colleagues predicted that clear-air turbulence in the middle latitudes 
of the Northern Hemisphere could triple in the next three to six 
decades, depending on future greenhouse emissions.

A separate 2020 study by a group of China-based scientists points to 
increased temperatures in the upper atmosphere contributing to "a 
profound impact on the wind shear and turbulence in mid-latitudes."...
- -
*Flight attendants experience the most injuries*
Although it is almost unheard of for turbulence to cause a crash, such 
events do stress a plane's airframe, says Ryan Pettit, an associate 
technical fellow and senior controls engineer for Boeing.

Really jarring turbulence "can impart pretty big loads on the airplane," 
he says. However, "the design standards of modern aircraft are really high."

Nevertheless, the National Transportation Safety Board has said that 
turbulence causes the most common types of accidents aboard aircraft. 
 From 2009 to 2022, the National Transportation Safety Board tallied 163 
"serious injuries" resulting from turbulence. The types of injuries 
tracked include major fractures, serious burns, internal bleeding or any 
other injury requiring two or more days of hospitalization. Flight crews 
incurred 80% of all such injuries, the NTSB notes...

https://www.npr.org/2023/04/06/1166993992/turbulence-climate-change
. .
/[  New website may be useful to frequent flyers  ]/
*Welcome to Turbulence Forecast*
Turbulence Forecast offers the most accurate HD automated turbulence 
forecast maps, custom to your flights, so you can easily follow along as 
you fly and anticipate areas of turbulence. We also offer forecasts by 
email, written by our in house experts, including the founder of this 
site, when you need a human touch.
https://www.turbulenceforecast.com/


/[ Dave Roberts from Volts ]/
*What's going on with biofuels?*
A conversation with Dan Lashof of the World Resources Institute.
APR 7
My fellow olds will recall that, back in the 2000s, biofuels were an 
extremely big deal in the clean-energy world, one of a tiny handful of 
decarbonization solutions that seemed viable. Biofuels — and the many 
advanced versions thereof allegedly on the horizon — dominated 
discussions of climate change policy.

Much has changed since then. Principally, it has become clear that 
electrification is the cheapest path to decarbonization for most 
sectors, including the transportation sector. The Biden administration 
has explicitly put electrification at the center of its transportation 
decarbonization strategy.

Biofuels, in the meantime, have gone exactly nowhere. Advanced biofuels 
remain almost entirely notional, old-fashioned corn ethanol remains as 
wasteful as ever, and new scientific evidence suggests that the carbon 
costs of biofuels are much larger than previously appreciated.

It's not clear if anyone has told the EPA. For the first time in 15 
years, the agency is on the verge of updating biofuels production 
mandates first established by the Energy Independence and Security Act 
of 2007, and its proposed standards do not appear cognizant of these 
recent developments, or of the administration's larger transportation 
strategy.

To discuss the latest developments in biofuels and the EPA's puzzling 
blind spot, I talked to Dan Lashof, director of the World Resources 
Institute. We discussed how biofuels have developed since the early 
2000s, the lack of progress in advanced biofuels, and the stakes of 
EPA's coming decisions...

https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-going-on-with-biofuels?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&publication_id=193024&post_id=108097380&utm_medium=email#details


[ WISPA ]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOi05zDO4yw



/[The news archive - looking back at moments of potential change ]/
/*April 8, 2003*/
April 8, 2003: In the New York Times, climate scientist Michael 
Oppenheimer declares: "The threat of global warming, first raised in 
1896, has outlived many foreign policy crises. Our failure to deal with 
it is starting to bear a bitter harvest not only in rising seas and 
intensified rainstorms, but also in disruption of long-standing 
alliances, and interference with other foreign policy objectives. It is 
well past time for U.S. leaders to put the climate problem at the center 
of America's domestic and international agendas."

    Opinion
    *After Iraq : Declare war on global warming*
    By Michael Oppenheimer, International Herald Tribune
    April 8, 2003

    With his rejection of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change in 2001,
    President George W. Bush inadvertently caused an upheaval in
    international relations. Environmental issues had been long regarded
    as the poor stepchild of the foreign policy arena. But as recent
    remarks by Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain and the United
    Nations arms inspector Hans Blix made clear, the global warming
    issue, and particularly America's handling of it, has become a
    central geopolitical concern.

    Speaking at a delicate moment in the Iraq crisis, Blair contrasted
    the current situation with "issues that affect us over time. They
    are just as devastating in their potential impact" as weapons of
    mass destruction and terrorism, "some more so, but they require
    reflection and strategy geared to the long-term, often straddling
    many years and many governments. Within this category are the issues
    of global poverty, relations between the Muslim world and the West,
    environmental degradation, most particularly climate change."

    Challenging U.S. claims that the Kyoto Protocol is too costly, Blair
    declared that "it is clear Kyoto is not radical enough" and
    committed Britain to cutting its emissions of global warming gases
    by 60 percent by 2050. This goes far beyond the Kyoto Protocol's 5
    percent reduction mandated for developed countries by 2012.

    Recently, Blix chimed in by commenting, "I'm more worried about
    global warming than I am about any major military conflict."

    Blair's speech served the obvious need to buttress his standing with
    a British public that is disturbed over his unwavering support of
    America's Iraq policy. By opposing the United States and laying
    claim to leadership of the dozens of countries that are working to
    bring the Kyoto Protocol into force, Blair clearly intended to
    counteract the charge that he is subservient to Bush. That an
    environmental issue could be deployed in this way is itself notable.

    Blair's remarks serve a broader purpose, however. They are a
    reminder of how severely the U.S. rejection of the Kyoto Protocol
    and other accords has distorted its relations with erstwhile allies,
    preparing the ground for rancor over Iraq by depleting a decades-old
    stock of trans-Atlantic goodwill.

    Blair's statement that "the world is in danger of polarizing around
    two different agendas" serves as a warning to Bush that his emphasis
    on near-term security concerns attends to just half the equation of
    human well-being. Global stability depends equally on the United
    States stepping up to the plate on global warming and other
    long-term issues.

    For environmentalists who have pressed the foreign policy
    establishment for 20 years to take their concerns seriously, this
    welcome juxtaposition of global environment and international
    security brings along a touch of irony. In 1989, Prime Minister
    Margaret Thatcher of Britain underwent a conversion experience on
    the environment, and called for an international treaty on climate
    change. Three years later, her leadership was an important factor in
    convincing a reluctant President George H.W. Bush to sign the UN
    Framework Convention on Climate Change, the parent document of the
    Kyoto Protocol. The U.S. Senate ratified that agreement a few months
    later.

    The Cold War had ended, and the environment seemed about to get its
    turn on the international agenda because matters considered
    weightier by the foreign policy establishment had been cleared off
    the table. To some, it was the "end of history" but unfortunately,
    not the beginning of continuing attention to global warming and
    related issues by high-level officials in the United States.

    One reason the Kyoto Protocol fell afoul of the U.S. government, and
    one reason the Bush administration fell afoul of Europe in its
    hamhanded rejection of the protocol, was a failure in Washington to
    understand the emerging importance of the climate issue to
    international relations now, as well as to global stability in the
    future.

    The situation could worsen. The Kyoto Protocol appears likely to
    come into force this year if, as expected, Russia ratifies it. As
    Europe, Japan and others implement cuts in emissions, the question
    of how to treat the United States, should it continue to abstain,
    could point in nasty directions, such as trade sanctions on products
    like cars, airplanes and computers whose manufacture causes
    emissions of global warming gases. Earlier, sanctions would have
    been out of the question. If the current trans-Atlantic alienation
    persists, one cannot exclude the possibility that Europe eventually
    will turn to such an approach.

    The threat of global warming, first raised in 1896, has outlived
    many foreign policy crises. Our failure to deal with it is starting
    to bear a bitter harvest not only in rising seas and intensified
    rainstorms, but also in disruption of long-standing alliances, and
    interference with other foreign policy objectives. It is well past
    time for U.S. leaders to put the climate problem at the center of
    America's domestic and international agendas.

    The writer is a professor of geosciences and international affairs
    at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs,
    Princeton University.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/08/opinion/08iht-edoppen_ed3_.html

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