[✔️] July 14, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Texas heat, Trenberth, Hansen's loaded dice., EU Nature Restoration, Synchro failures, Tribalism and denial, Disinfo battles, 2008 Bushed

[R Pauli]

/*July*//*14, 2023*/

/[  clips from NYTimes on Texas heat  -- how poverty kills ] /
*In a Texas City, Heat Proved Deadly Even for Those Long Used to It*
Extreme heat killed 10 people in Laredo, a sign that the eventual death 
toll from this year’s widespread heat waves could be substantial.
By J. David Goodman -- Reporting from Laredo, Texas
July 13, 2023
Alfredo Garza Jr. died in his bedroom with two broken air-conditioners, 
on a downtown street in Laredo, Texas, across from a coffee shop and a 
bakery. When his body was found, the temperature inside the room was 106 
degrees.

Nearby on the same June day, in a small home behind his sister’s house, 
67-year-old Jorge Sanchez suffered the heat with nothing more than a fan 
to cool him, and then succumbed to temperatures that reached 113 
degrees. A wave of extreme heat also overcame another man, still 
unidentified by the authorities, who parked his truck on a busy 
residential street with its hazard lights flashing, and died.

Hot weather is nothing new in a place like Laredo, where summer 
temperatures regularly climb well past 100 degrees. But the seemingly 
unending wave of punishing heat and stifling humidity that began in the 
middle of June — parked for weeks over much of the nation’s south and 
west — is presenting unfamiliar and deadly new hazard
- -
Across the country, extreme heat, which can strain the heart, lungs and 
kidneys, is a leading weather-related cause of death. In Texas last 
year, at least 306 people died of heat-related causes, according to the 
state health department — the highest annual total in more than two 
decades. Among them were 158 nonresidents, a figure that includes 
migrants crossing the state’s harsh terrain. During the heat wave in 
Webb County, at least two migrants were found dead on local ranches, 
according to the sheriff, Martin Cuellar.

The superheated dome of high atmospheric pressure that has been pressing 
down on much of the country will probably stay in place for a few more 
days at least, forecasters said, pushing temperatures to dangerous 
heights from parts of California all the way to Florida. And the 
temperature readings tell only part of the story, public health 
officials cautioned, because humid air worsens the heat, making it much 
more difficult for the body to cool down. And in cities like Laredo, the 
air can grow even hotter as the sun bakes the pavement, with little 
respite at night.
- -
“Bottom line: The heat is getting bad. Everyone needs to do whatever 
they can — because we want to prevent people from dying.”

The county provides free air-conditioners to residents who can’t afford 
them, handing out more than 400 last year and nearly 300 so far this 
year, Dr. Huang said.

Instead, the county has opened more than a dozen cooling centers, 
organized “fan drives” to give away fans, and leaned on a system of 
“promotoras,” well-connected local people who help officials spread 
important health information through their networks and at community 
centers.

“It’s like that one aunt that knows everybody, that gets along with 
everybody,” said Tano Tijerina, the county judge for Webb County, 
describing the approach.

Mr. Tijerina said the county had not contemplated starting a program to 
provide free air-conditioners to residents. “If you’re going to start 
giving out air-conditioners, where do you stop?” he said. “We are an 
aid, we will help, we’ll assist.” But he added, “we’re talking about 
people’s tax dollars here.”

Nearly the entire population of the city and the county is Hispanic, 
according to U.S. Census estimates, and many residents have lived their 
entire lives enduring the region’s famously hot weather. A longtime 
local meteorologist goes by the nickname “Heatwave.”

“We’re used to the heat,” Armando Acosta, 24, a metal worker in Laredo, 
said as he finished erecting the frame of a shade structure outside a 
house this week, working in the sweltering sun. “But it’s the air that’s 
suffocating,” he said.

His colleague Cristian Patiño, 32, said each of them would drink about 
15 bottles of water during the work day, and take breaks roughly each hour.

Workers make up a large share of hospital admissions for heat-related 
illnesses, but in Laredo, the people who died from the latest heat wave 
were mostly older people who were at home alone, and either did not have 
air conditioning or chose not to turn it on, said Dr. Stern, the medical 
examiner.

“They thought, ‘I’m used to this heat,’” she said. “That’s what we heard 
from their family, ‘Oh, I’m used to this heat, I’ve got this.’”

One victim, a 68-year-old woman, died despite having a working 
air-conditioner at home. “Her daughters had seen her the night before, 
to bring her some food, and told her, ‘Mom, turn the air-conditioner on, 
it’s hot in here,’ and she wouldn’t,” Dr. Stern said. “Didn’t want to 
turn it on, to save money.”

Money was also a major concern in the home of Mr. Garza, 61, who died in 
a room with two broken air-conditioners...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/us/texas-heat-deaths-webb-county.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/us/texas-heat-deaths-webb-county.html?unlocked_article_code=f0nWWWRMGFVo_y8_K9dOey1w_85uzOBDPeuqIutLEGjEnD24iByXY-eGKx28iz-1oTfkKfJsDiJgL_xpFT54i_a-FukaGJfuTxHITZkoaAS6FSl3v2X8c7CBm7W1pi2UF2hinpJ5UHvB30IMF_o2Fui8q0Vf8XeSlQNwxZg3lTJAnOWS1-keeIJbtIcB_xognNKt0iO24lE57oa-sVHE3f6oF53tv_uxv68Bt-Qd_zmTeoYAVEfBFk8hI3m2ytQCq8yc9MyA7GPOUOneXuBcPp5hDadjja45UFrZ_GLnRQ6CJ5stcmQI_aEEg73DqtnHd7kas-NG0Xanu6EGyzDngicn&smid=url-share

/
/

/
/

/[ video briefing from a most respected climate scientist - starts about 
2 min in ]/
*Kevin Trenberth on El Nino, and Earth's Hottest Day*
Jul 6, 2023
When Kevin Trenberth speaks, scientists around the world listen
greenmanbucket
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVnP3KH6VOM



/[ James Hansen's team speaks wisely ]/
*The Climate Dice are Loaded. Now, a New Frontier?*
13 July 2023
James Hansen, Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy
Andy Revkin recently asked whether the “climate dice” have become more 
“loaded” in the last 15 years. Climate dice were defined[1] in 1988, 
after we realized that the next cool summer may cause the public to 
discount human-caused climate change. The answer is “yes,” the dice are 
more loaded as we will explain via the shifting bell curve (Fig. 1). The 
shift is large enough that most people notice the change, but that 
doesn’t prevent a person with a bias from taking the cool June in the 
U.S. this year (Fig. 2) as proof that global warming predictions were 
wrong – and, of course, a loose cannon on Twitter has done just that. 
That’s nonsense, of course. On global average, June 2023 was easily the 
warmest June in the historical record, as we will illustrate below.

What to do about loose cannons? Censor them? Bad idea. Censorship leads 
to enforced conformity, which has more serious consequences than loose 
cannons. Conformity leads to dogma[2] which is anti-science. Science 
aims to compile real-world data and interpret it without prejudice, 
including its implications for policy. In a democracy, we must keep the 
public informed, which requires correcting disinformation. The aim is 
not to persuade a loose cannon – who likely has prior bias and is 
unpersuadable – but rather to educate those people who are open-minded...
https://mailchi.mp/caa/the-climate-dice-are-loaded-now-a-new-frontier?e=cd4f052551

- -

/[ a single page essay by Hansen team explains the graphics of change  ]/
*Perception of climate change*
James Hansena, Makiko Satoa, and Reto Ruedyb
a National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for 
Space Studies
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Documents/Hansen.2012.PerceptionClimChan.PNAS.pdf



[ DW News  ]
*EU lawmakers narrowly pass 'nature restoration bill' | DW News*
DW News

Jul 12, 2023  #EuropeanUnion #Biodiversity #nature
The European Parliament has accepted a key biodiversity bill that will 
see the restoration of CO2-storing peatlands but has been criticized by 
farmers and other opposition groups due to fears they might lose land. 
Testing the EU's global climate credentials, the lawmakers supported the 
European Commission plan in a razor-thin 324-312 vote with 12 abstentions.

After weeks of intense negotiations and despite the steadfast opposition 
of the legislature's biggest group, the European People's Party, the 
plan survived in the vote at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. 
Immediately after its approval, lawmakers started voting on more than 
100 amendments in a bid to adjust the plan. These amendments will be 
negotiated with the member states of the EU, signifying a months-long 
process before the final law can be approved.  The debate surrounding 
the law had become an important campaign issue prior to the European 
elections in June 2024. The makeup of the next European Parliament will 
influence the priorities of the next European Commission, which is 
currently led by Ursula von der Leyen.  The full chamber had to vote on 
the bill after a parliamentary commission failed to agree on a position.

The Nature Restoration Act was at the center of the EU's biodiversity 
strategy, forming part of the bloc's Green Deal approach to boost 
environmental protection and mitigate the effects of climate change. 
Degraded ecosystems could be restored by boosting forested areas and 
marine habitats as well as increasing connectivity between rivers. The 
bill will allow for 30% of all former peatlands currently exploited for 
agriculture to be restored and partially shifted to other use by the end 
of the decade, a figure rising to 70% by 2050. Farmers' associations and 
EU conservative politicians had previously complained that farmers would 
be too restricted by protective measures, and even claimed the bill 
could endanger food security in the EU. EU legislators from center-left, 
green and left-wing groups in the parliament supported the legislation, 
with many joining Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg in a protest 
in favor on Tuesday. On the other side, farmers with tractors responded 
to a call by the European farmers' association Copa-Cogeca and 
demonstrated against the nature conservation law in front of the parliament.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqWYFVjHnUQ


/
/

///[  Vice delivers the conjectured terror-of-the-Month - text and audio ]/
*Scientists Raise Alarm Over Risk of 'Synchronized' Global Crop Failures*
New research exposes an underestimated risk of simultaneous global food 
supply shocks due to climate change.
Becky Ferreira
By Becky Ferreira
July 6, 2023

Scientists are raising alarms about the risk of simultaneous crop 
failures occurring in multiple regions across the globe as a result of 
human-driven climate change, a catastrophe that poses an underestimated 
threat to the global food supply, reports a new study.

Using sophisticated climate models, researchers zeroed in on the effects 
of the jet stream, a system of rapidly flowing winds in the atmosphere, 
on heat extremes around the world. The results revealed that 
“meandering” jet stream patterns can produce weather anomalies in some 
of the most important crop-producing lands on Earth, an ominous signal 
that “synchronized” harvest collapses could occur in the future.

Climate change, which is driven by human consumption of fossil fuels, is 
placing enormous new pressures on humans and other lifeforms on the 
planet. In particular, rising temperatures are fueling more intense 
extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, wildfires, 
and storms, all of which have adverse effects on food production 
worldwide. Given that disruptions to the global food supply can be 
deadly, especially for import-reliant nations, scientists have been 
galvanized to better understand the complex risks that climate change 
poses to global crop yields.

To that end, scientists led by climate scientist Kai Kornhuber from 
Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory set out to study 
meandering jet streams, which are especially wavy wind patterns in the 
sky that have remained a wild card in climate and crop models.

By analyzing climate data collected from 1960 and 2014, the team 
discovered “an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during 
summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models” which 
expose “high-risk blind spots” in climate models, according to a study 
published on Tuesday in Nature Communications.

“Concurrent crop failures in major crop-producing regions constitute a 
systemic risk as associated spikes in food prices can lead to conflict 
and undernutrition in countries that rely on imports,” said Kornhuber 
and his colleagues in the study. “Thus, understanding the likelihood of 
concurrent crop failures and the degree to which models are able to 
reproduce observed relationships is important for increasing the 
resilience of the global food system and mitigating climate risks.”

“While climate models have been excellent in projecting the mean 
response to continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions our 
analysis suggests that they might provide a conservative estimate of how 
concurrent extreme weather events driven by specific circulation regimes 
might evolve in future and how they might affect regional crop yield and 
covariability across regions,” the team added.

Climate models and projections have become extremely sophisticated in 
recent years, but it’s still challenging to account for all of the 
effects caused by the collision of natural climate cycles with human 
activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels.

For instance, Kornhuber and his colleagues note that the intricate 
relationship between jet stream patterns, extreme weather events, and 
crop yield anomalies has only been quantified on a regional basis, 
rather than a global level. Up until now, there has also been a lack of 
clarity about how shifts in these atmospheric wind patterns could affect 
crop yields in the future.

The team’s 54-year dataset showed that meandering jet streams have the 
potential to trigger far more devastating heat extremes than previously 
realized. The researchers also generated projections for the latter half 
of the 21st century that show an elevated risk of simultaneous crop 
failures that could cripple the global food supply chain by triggering 
crop failures in key breadbasket regions such as India, the United 
States, and Eastern Europe.

In other words, the new study offers a frightening glimpse of a world 
roiled by food shortages brought on by meandering winds. As with all 
other warnings about climate change, the only chance at avoiding this 
fate is to drastically reduce humanity’s consumption of fossil fuels 
within the coming years.

“Our study points towards potential high-impact blind spots in current 
climate risk assessments, highlighting the urgent need for more 
empirical and process-based research to support model improvements in 
the climate and agriculture domains, supplemented by expert elicitation, 
qualitative storylines, and decision-centric approaches,” the 
researchers said.

“Evidence for high-risk blind spots such as an underestimation of 
synchronized harvest failures as identified here, manifests the urgency 
of rapid emission reductions, lest climate extremes and their complex 
interactions might increasingly become unmanageable,” they concluded.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3m3k3/scientists-raise-alarm-over-risk-of-synchronized-global-crop-failures



/[ This is an excellent essay -- worthy of attention   ]/
*The big idea: why climate tribalism only helps the deniers*
 From nuclear power to electric vehicles, battles between activists risk 
getting in the way of reducing emissions

Hannah Ritchie
Mon 10 Jul 2023

One of the most effective ways to be a climate sceptic is to say nothing 
at all. Why expend the effort slapping down climate solutions when you 
can rely on feuding climate activists to tear each other’s ideas apart? 
We tend to fight with those we are closest to. This is true of family. 
But it’s also true of our peers, which for me, are those obsessed with 
trying to fix climate change. Step into the murky waters of Twitter and 
you’ll often find activists spending more time going after one another 
than battling climate falsehoods.

These might seem like small squabbles, but they have a real impact. They 
slow our progress and play into the hands of the deniers, the oil 
companies, the anti-climate lobbyists. These groups push on while our 
heads are turned.

What we want to achieve is the same: to reduce carbon emissions. The 
problem is that we are stubborn about how we get there. We often have 
strong opinions about what the evils are, and how to fix them. The 
nuclear zealots want to go all-in on building new power stations. The 
renewable zealots want no nuclear at all. Some promote electric cars; 
their opponents want car-less roads. Vegans advocate for cutting out 
animal products; flexitarians feel judged when they eat their weekly 
roast chicken.

These cracks can start at an even higher level. For some it is not about 
the specific technology we deploy, it’s about the fact that we see 
technology as a solution at all. There are those who believe that 
technology will fix everything. Their detractors think this 
techno-optimism is naive; only radical economic and social change can 
save us.

Such inner-circle battles aren’t specific to climate. They are 
everywhere. The American economist Michael Munger wrote about this very 
same tension in economic policy, describing how the world is split into 
“directionalists” and “destinationists”. Directionalists back any 
solution that takes us towards the final goal. In climate, this means 
they support anything that puts a notable dent in emissions. 
Destinationists are less flexible: they have an ideal outcome in mind. 
They block and reject anything that doesn’t fit their perfect vision. If 
they want to see a car-less world, they push against electric vehicles 
(EVs), even if they would cut emissions by a lot.

Destinationalism is a problem. Sure, we all have our favourite 
solutions. But the reality is that we can’t afford to be choosy. The 
answer to almost every climate dilemma is “We need both”. We need 
renewables and nuclear energy (even if that means just keeping our 
existing nuclear plants online). We need to tackle fossil fuels and our 
food system; fossil fuels are the biggest emitter, but emissions from 
food alone would take us well past a temperature rise of 1.5C and close 
to 2C. Not everyone can commute without a car, so we need electric 
vehicles and cycle-friendly cities and public transport networks. We 
can’t decarbonise without technological change, but we need to rethink 
our economic, political and social systems to make sure they flourish.

*Fossil fuel companies don’t need to dunk on nuclear power because many 
environmentalists have done it for them*
These battles are not just neutral noises off; they actively help the 
other side. Fossil fuel companies don’t need to dunk on nuclear power 
because many environmentalists have done it for them. Take Germany, 
where nuclear plants were closed early, delaying the phasing-out of coal 
power. This was not only bad for the climate but for air pollution too. 
Many people on the pro-nuclear side didn’t help: their bashing of 
renewable energy technologies made anti-nuclear environmentalists even 
more defensive. Or there’s the claim that EVs can be just as bad for the 
environment, often trotted out even in green-leaning media. In response, 
people are persuaded to stick with their petrol or diesel car. 
Similarly, meat-eaters who are considering cutting back see claims about 
how “unhealthy” and “processed” some plant-based burgers are, and opt 
for beef instead.

The solution isn’t to stop debating. I’m not claiming we should 
uncritically support every proposal on the table. That would waste 
money, time and resources. Our efforts would become scattered and 
diluted. We’d focus on the wrong things. We need to be intensely 
critical to make sure we invest in climate solutions that are effective 
and can scale. And no solution is a panacea – EVs, lab-grown meat, 
renewable energy, nuclear power – all have some impact. We need to be 
transparent about those impacts to reduce them as much as we can.

So how can we make these debates work better? First, we need to become 
less fixated on the ideal pathway. None of us will get precisely what we 
want; we need to compromise and take a route that reduces emissions 
effectively and quickly, using a combination of solutions.

Second, we need to be more generous when dealing with our rivals. 
Intellectual disagreements can quickly descend into name-calling. Real 
conversation stops and we talk past one another instead. We become more 
focused on winning the argument than understanding the other side. This 
makes the climate solution space hostile, which is counterproductive 
considering we want the world’s best minds to be there.

Third, we need to be honest about what is and isn’t true about the 
solutions we don’t like. “EVs emit just as much CO2 as petrol cars” is 
simply wrong. They emit significantly less, even if they emit more than 
the subway or a bike (and yes, this is still true when we account for 
the emissions needed to produce the battery). “Nuclear energy is unsafe” 
is wrong – it’s thousands of times safer than the coal we’re trying to 
replace, and just as safe as renewables. It’s fine to advocate for your 
preferred solutions, but it’s not OK to lie about the alternatives to 
make your point.

In short, we need to become better directionalists. To focus on moving 
towards our goals, rather than pinning all our hopes on an ideal means 
of getting there. Whether you’re a fan of nuclear or solar, electric 
cars or trains, lab-grown meat or lentils: we are all on the same team. 
Let’s start acting like it.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jul/10/the-big-idea-why-climate-tribalism-only-helps-the-deniers



/[ the clean energy disinformation battles and co-ordinated physical 
disturbance battles ]/
*Key operatives for the fossil fuel industry are organizing a campaign 
of threats and intimidation against Farmers who wish to site clean 
energy, solar and wind, on their land.*
Jul 13, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qha681qGJJw



/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*July 14, 2008*/
July 14, 2008: On MSNBC's "Countdown," fill-in host Rachel Maddow 
describes another controversy that has left the US feeling "Bushed":

"Number one, serial driller-gate.  President Bush today lifted an 
executive order banning off-shore drilling.  It‘s an order that dates 
back to the other President Bush.  The move accomplishes nothing, 
because Congress still has its own ban in effect.  But that‘s not the 
only way we know this is pure politics.  According to Mr. Bush‘s own 
Energy Information Administration, off-shore production could not even 
start until five years after the off-shore sites were leased.  So that‘s 
2013.  Off-shore sites could not significantly impact U.S. production 
until 18 years after leasing.  So that's 2026.

"And the impact on prices from off-shore drilling when the oil finally 
starts flowing in 2026?  Because oil prices are set on a global market, 
the EIA says the offshore impact on prices would be, quote, 
insignificant.  But the political impact, priceless."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHvqjj3yeDA


=======================================
*Mass media is lacking, many daily summariesdeliver global warming news 
- a few are email delivered*

=========================================================
**Inside Climate News*
Newsletters
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every day or 
once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s top headlines 
deliver the full story, for free.
https://insideclimatenews.org/
---------------------------------------
**Climate Nexus* https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News summarizes the 
most important climate and energy news of the day, delivering an 
unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant reporting. It also provides 
original reporting and commentary on climate denial and pro-polluter 
activity that would otherwise remain largely unexposed.    5 weekday
=================================
*Carbon Brief Daily https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up*
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief 
sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of 
subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours 
of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our 
pick of the key studies published in the peer-reviewed journals.
more at https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief
==================================
*T*he Daily Climate *Subscribe https://ehsciences.activehosted.com/f/61*
Get The Daily Climate in your inbox - FREE! Top news on climate impacts, 
solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered week days. Better than coffee.
Other newsletters  at https://www.dailyclimate.org/originals/

/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/ 

/Archive of Daily Global Warming News 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/


/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe 
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request> 
to news digest./

Privacy and Security:*This mailing is text-only.  It does not carry 
images or attachments which may originate from remote servers.  A 
text-only message can provide greater privacy to the receiver and 
sender. This is a personal hobby production curated by Richard Pauli
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain cannot be used for commercial 
purposes. Messages have no tracking software.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote 
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe, 
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for 
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct 
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List 
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to 
this mailing list.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/attachments/20230714/3e4395e8/attachment.htm>