[✔️] March 8, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Calif rains coming, Tipping points, Tragedy of the Commons, Overshoot, D.R. Tucker
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Wed Mar 8 08:57:59 EST 2023
/*March 8, 2023*/
/[ New book ]/
*Preventing and Healing Climate Traumas*
A Guide to Building Resilience and Hope in Communities
By Bob Doppelt
eBook Published 29 March 2023
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.4324/9781003262442
eBook ISBN9781003262442
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781003262442/preventing-healing-climate-traumas-bob-doppelt
/[ get ready ] /
*California braces for flooding, snowmelt from a warm atmospheric river
set to slam state*
BY HAYLEY SMITH STAFF WRITER
MARCH 7, 2023
Another atmospheric river system has set its sights on California,
raising considerable concern about flooding and structural damage as
warm rain is expected to fall atop the state’s near-record snowpack this
week, forecasters say.
..
“It now appears increasingly likely that a potentially significant and
very likely warm atmospheric river event will probably affect some
portion of Northern or Central California sometime between about late
Thursday and Saturday,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said during
a briefing Monday.
Last week, the odds of such a system developing were about 20%. By
Monday, the chances had increased to “7 or 8 out of 10, if not higher,
for a warm atmospheric river event of some magnitude,” Swain said. At
least one more storm could follow this month...
- -
“We’re going to see rain on top of snow, and for elevations of say 2,000
feet to about 4,000 feet, a lot of that snow is going to melt,” said
Carlos Molina, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in
Hanford, Calif. “We’re going to basically lose a lot of the snow that
fell from the previous storms. We’re looking at potential for flooding.”...
- -
Indeed, the highest likelihood of flood-related impacts are in
lower-elevation areas with unusually deep snowpack, Swain said. Small
rivers and streams in those areas will see significant potential for
runoff issues, as will some urban areas — particularly in places where
storm drains are already clogged by snow.
There may also be problems at elevations above 5,000 or 6,000 feet, he
said. Though snowpack in such areas is probably too deep and too cold to
be melted by the incoming storm, it can become heavier as it absorbs
more water. That could cause roof collapses and other structural issues....
/- - /
“We’re going to see rain on top of snow, and for elevations of say 2,000
feet to about 4,000 feet, a lot of that snow is going to melt,” said
Carlos Molina, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in
Hanford, Calif. “We’re going to basically lose a lot of the snow that
fell from the previous storms. We’re looking at potential for flooding.”
- -
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-03-07/california-forecasters-warn-of-approaching-atmospheric-river
- -
/[ New Zealand is not much better off - YouTube video ]/
*Southern Ocean Heating: Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle the worst to hit New
Zealand in a Century*
Paul Beckwith
2,855 views Mar 6, 2023
The Southern Ocean is vitally important to the global climate system.
With no land barriers impeding the zonal flow around Antarctica, the
Southern Ocean basically connects the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian
Oceans via the fast flowing, dynamic, and deep extending Antarctic
Circumpolar Current (ACC).
Between 60% and 90% of the global ocean heating goes into the Southern
Oceans (in turn, over 90% of the planetary global heating increase goes
into the world oceans). The upper 1000 meters within and north of the
ACC is warning fast at a rate of 0.1 to 0.2 C per decade, while the
surface sub-polar seas are not warming so much because of Antarctic ice
melt moderating the heating. However the deep abyssal water in the
sup-polar region is warming at a significant rate of 0.5 C per decade.
Warmer surface waters lead to higher probabilities of tropical cyclones
occurring. Recently, New Zealand was grazed by Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle which ended up being the most damaging storm to hit New
Zealand in a century. I chat about some physics behind these tropical
cyclones/typhoons/hurricanes and the their statistics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbvm89VHPGI
/[ Tipping points ]/*
**TPDS: how to tip society, not the planet (#13)**
*World Climate Research Programme
372 views Jan 27, 2023 Tipping Elements Discussion Series
This webinar is part of the AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth, WCRP
Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity, and partners discussion
series on tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the
Earth system.
The event included two presentations:
► Climate tipping points: how close are they, and what can we
do about them? - David Armstrong McKay (University of Exeter)
► Socio-economic tipping points to drive accelerated adoption
of climate solutions – what we know and what we don’t know - Lloyd
Pinnell (Systemiq)
The webinar was moderated by Ruth Townend (Chatham House).
Website: https://tipping-points-positive-tippi...
*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPNoGmT_Si4*
- -
[ This classic essay is key to understanding ]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
- -
[ Harvard Business School]
*TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS: WHAT IT IS AND 5 EXAMPLES*
The tragedy of the commons refers to a situation in which individuals
with access to a public resource (also called a common) act in their own
interest and, in doing so, ultimately deplete the resource.
This economic theory was first conceptualized in 1833 by British writer
William Forster Lloyd. In 1968, the term “tragedy of the commons” was
used for the first time by Garret Hardin in Science Magazine.
This theory explains individuals’ tendency to make decisions based on
their personal needs, regardless of the negative impact it may have on
others. In some cases, an individual’s belief that others won’t act in
the best interest of the group can lead them to justify selfish
behavior. Potential overuse of a common-pool resource—hybrid between a
public and private good— can also influence individuals to act with
their short-term interest in mind, resulting in the use of an
unsustainable product and disregard the harm it could cause to the
environment or general public.
It’s helpful for both firms and individuals to understand the tragedy of
the commons so they can make more sustainable and
environmentally-friendly choices. Here are five real-world examples of
the tragedy of the commons and an exploration of the solution to this
problem.
https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/tragedy-of-the-commons-impact-on-sustainability-issues
- -
/[a brief video explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuP-virEK0g]/
*What Is the Tragedy of the Commons?*
HBS Online
3,155 views Aug 17, 2022 Business: Explained
It’s important for professionals to understand the tragedy of the
commons so they can make more sustainable and environmentally friendly
business decisions. Here’s an overview of what the tragedy of the
commons is.
Learn more about the tragedy of the commons on our Business Insights
Blog: https://hbs.me/5ahvxz96
Find out more about our online course Sustainable Business Strategy:
https://hbs.me/yc5wd378
Explore all our business in society certificate courses:
https://hbs.me/55hmbxmm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuP-virEK0g
- -
/[ emotionally difficult opinion -
https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot///- Collapse is not full
doom, rather it is radical population crash ]/
*Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save Civilization*
Alan Urban
Preparing for the collapse of global industrial civilization.
Feb 9, 2023
I have some bad news. Civilization is going to collapse. Not in 1000
years, not in 100 years, but within the lifetimes of most people alive
today.
It doesn’t necessarily mean humans will go extinct, but at the very
least, billions of people are going to die from disease, violence,
starvation, dehydration, natural disasters, and war.
How do I know this? Because it has already begun.
Our global industrial civilization has been headed for collapse for at
least 50 years. That’s how long ago the human population went into
overshoot, a concept that is crucial to understand if you’re going to
make sense of the horrors that await us in the 21st century.
- -
*Overshoot and Collapse*
Thanks to all these new forms of energy and technology, humans have
vastly increased the carrying capacity of the planet. However, this
increased carrying capacity is an illusion. William R. Catton, author of
Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, called it
“phantom carrying capacity.”
Our ability to feed 8 billion people is completely dependent on fossil
fuels such as oil and natural gas. Once we begin to run out of them,
they will become much more expensive, which means everything
else—especially food—will become much more expensive as well.
*Peak Oil*
Peak oil is the point at which the production (or rather, extraction) of
oil peaks then goes into decline. Because there is a finite amount of
oil on this planet, peak oil is going to happen eventually. The only
question is when. But now, there are signs that peak oil already
happened a few years ago.
Of course, oil companies continue to discover new oil fields, but
they’re not discovering them fast enough to keep up with demand. In
fact, new oil discoveries are at their lowest level in 75 years. Even
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, has warned that their
spare capacity is “extremely low.”
If we truly have reached peak oil, then we are in big trouble. As I
explained earlier, population growth is directly tied to energy usage.
Without plenty of affordable energy, we cannot continue to grow our
population or even maintain it. Thus the term, “phantom carrying
capacity.”..
- -
*How Did We Get Here?*
Most people refuse to believe that our civilization is unsustainable and
headed for collapse in the near future. There are people who have been
presented with all the facts mentioned in this article who still refuse
to accept the truth.
But why? There are many possibilities, but I think a big one is cultural
conditioning. Ever since we were born, we were all taught by the media
that technology is a good thing. They say technology is progress, and
the more technology we have, the freer and happier society will be. Like
in Star Trek.
So when you tell people that actually, technology is destroying the
planet and leading us toward collapse, they find it impossible to
believe. They’ll even say that what we need now is more technology. But
unfortunately, we can’t solve our problems with the same methods that
got us into this predicament.
There are countless peer-reviewed studies demonstrating that we are in
overshoot right now and that we are headed for a hunter-gatherer future.
These studies are based on empirical data and basic math, yet many
environmentalists refuse to believe it. They say growth is fine, we just
need to switch to “green growth.”
But it’s not just cultural conditioning that does this to people; it’s
also fear. When I first realized that society will probably collapse in
my lifetime, I tried really hard to convince myself that it wasn’t true.
I started learning about techno fixes, green energy, and sustainable
growth. It took me a long time before I finally realized that
sustainable growth is an oxymoron.
Ever since the Limits to Growth study back in 1972, it has been clear
that our global civilization would collapse someday, but few people
believed it. Only now that resource depletion and climate disasters are
becoming such obvious problems are people finally starting to wake up.
- -
*What Now?*
As more and more people wake up to the reality of collapse, it is
absolutely crucial that we help them understand why collapse is happening.
The entire history of humans throughout the Holocene is characterized by
overshoot and collapse. When societies exceeded the carrying capacities
of their ecosystems, they usually either went to war with neighboring
societies or devolved into civil war.
My fear is that when the economy collapses and things start to get
really bad, people will blame others. The others could be anybody: Jews,
immigrants, white people, minorities, fascists, socialists, the
patriarchy, the “woke mob”, or other nations such as Russia or China.
We must understand that collapse is not the fault of some malignant
“other.” Collapse is the inevitable result of overshoot, and overshoot
is everybody’s fault. Yes, some people are more to blame than others,
but unless you’ve lived your entire life off-the-grid and
self-sufficient, you too have contributed to overshoot.
We need to stop blaming each other and start working together. We need
to create a culture based on sustainability instead of consumption, a
culture where we care more about leaving things to our children than
acquiring things for ourselves. We need to eliminate the idea that
humans are separate from nature and remember that we are all part of nature.
Until we do these things, I fear that we will only make our predicament
worse. I’ll close with a quote from William Catton, author of Overshoot:
The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change:
“I have tried to show the real nature of humanity’s predicament, not
because understanding its nature will enable us to escape it, but
because if we do not understand it, we shall continue to act and react
in ways that make it worse.”
Thanks for reading! If you're new here, I highly recommend reading this
article which explains the human predicament: Why It's Already Too Late
To Save Civilization. If you want to start preparing, check our list of
free books and manuals and our list of recommended supplies.
If you would like to learn more about collapse, please visit the
Collapse Resources page for a huge list of blogs, documentaries,
lectures, news sites, organizations, podcasts, charts, and videos about
collapse.
If you're feeling anxious or depressed, please visit the Emotional
Support page for tips on how to manage your emotions, phone numbers and
organizations where you can get help, and lists of books, articles, and
videos on coping with collapse anxiety.
Thanks again, and please share this article. The more people there are
who prepare for collapse, the better chance we have saving our species
and healing our planet.
https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot/
- -
/[ comment following the article from... ]/
Michael Dowd
Really excellent, Alan!! As you may know, I’m a big Catton fan. I audio
recorded the entire book and posted it on Soundcloud, with University of
Illinois Press permission, of course:
https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/sets/william-r-catton-jr
I also wrote Bill’s obituary and my wife and I created this tribute
page: https://thegreatstory.org/william-catton.html
I suggest you see here: https://postdoom.com/resources/ and here:
https://postdoom.com/conversations/ and then, if you’re interested,
let’s schedule a “post-doom conversation”. You’ll be in good company! 🙂
https://collapsesurvivalsite.com/overshoot/
/[The news archive - looking back at significant moments -- archive
thanks goes to D.R. Tucker]/
/*March 8, 2012*/
March 8, 2012: In a syndicated column, former Delaware Republican Party
official Michael Stafford notes:
"The far-right’s capture of the GOP has gone largely unchallenged by
more responsible voices within the Party. Jon Huntsman, for example,
was the sole presidential candidate willing to directly confront the
prevailing [right-wing] orthodoxy on climate and evolution. Perhaps
this isn’t surprising, given the viciousness of the attacks directed
at dissenters. The passion for purging and purity, and the primaries
that resemble nothing so much as heresy trials, highlight a critical
fact about the far-right. In Conservative Wonderland,
dissent--thought crime--is the political version of a capital offense."
http://themoderatevoice.com/140941/gop-stuck-in-a-conservative-wonderland/
- -
March 8, 2012
*GOP Stuck in a Conservative Wonderland*
by Michael Stafford
The Republican presidential primary field has been reduced to four
candidates- Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul.
Together, they are a veritable four horsemen of the political
apocalypse- a quadrilateral of doom, despair, division, and diminished
horizons. These candidates offer nothing positive for America’s future,
and are an indictment of the political party that produced them.
The election of President Obama seems to have pushed the far-right wing
of the GOP across some sort of political event horizon and into its own
version of Wonderland. Like Lewis Carroll’s original, this Conservative
Wonderland is home to all sorts of strange creatures- Randologists,
goldbugs, neo-Confederates, birthers, science deniers, and sundry
survivalist bunker denizens. In this magical place, it’s perfectly
reasonable to think that evolution is an unproven theory, that climate
change is a hoax perpetrated by Al Gore and a cabal of scientists, that
immigrants are a marauding criminal horde, that the free market is
omniscient and that President Obama is a foreign-born Marxist Muslim
bent on destroying constitutional government in America. Perhaps most
paradoxically, in this topsy-turvy realm, one can claim to be a patriot
and to love the Constitution, while simultaneously hating the federal
government that same document created, as well as the way it has been
interpreted and applied by the courts since the time of John Marshall.
Conservative Wonderland even has its own versions of the Queen of
Hearts- the doyens of the conservative entertainment complex on radio
and cable that define ideological orthodoxy, and enforce compliance,
while feeding a daily diet of misinformation, rage, and hysteria to
their audiences. “Audit the fed!” instead of “off with her head!”- but
the meaning is rather the same.
Unsurprisingly, as the far-right has become radicalized, it has
abandoned any interest in actual governance and embraced instead the
politics of emotional gratification. Consider, for example, the
far-right’s response to Obamacare. Everyone agrees that rising health
care costs are placing enormous strain on the economy, and on the
federal budget. Controlling them is essential to putting the nation on a
sound fiscal footing. And yet, rather than articulating its own reform
plan, the far-right’s response to Obamacare can be surmised in a single
word- repeal. Repeal, of course, is a slogan, not a program. Repeal
Obamacare, and the problems it attempted to solve will still be with us.
What, then, is the conservative solution?
Of course this is mere political theater; symbolism substituting for
substance. The politics of emotional gratification does not result in
progress in any policy area- it does not lead to solutions. It is simply
a series of empty gestures strung together.
The far-right’s capture of the GOP has gone largely unchallenged by more
responsible voices within the Party. Jon Huntsman, for example, was the
sole presidential candidate willing to directly confront the prevailing
orthodoxy on climate and evolution. Perhaps this isn’t surprising, given
the viciousness of the attacks directed at dissenters. The passion for
purging and purity, and the primaries that resemble nothing so much as
heresy trials, highlight a critical fact about the far-right. In
Conservative Wonderland, dissent- thoughtcrime- is the political version
of a capital offense.
In the Republican Party, thought-criminals have a name: RINOs
(Republicans In Name Only). And when it’s used, it’s always as a term of
derision; as a slur.
However, far from being the political version of the Shirt of Nessus,
the appellation RINO is a badge of honor. Today, a RINO is a person
within the GOP who refuses, despite all the pressure, to say that two
plus two equals five. Given the insanity of Conservative Wonderland, a
RINO is a responsible Republican.
The ideological inquisitors have hounded far too many responsible
Republicans out of the GOP; intimidated too many others into silence.
We’ve been hunted to the brink of extinction. Now, those that remain
must find their voice, and their courage. In American conservatism,
thoughtcrime is life- it is the sole hope for a better future.
The far-right would drive the GOP over a cliff, and take America right
along with it. It’s up to responsible Republicans to take back the wheel
and steer a different course. Today, we have an opportunity to challenge
the prevailing orthodoxies and articulate an alternative vision of
conservatism- one that is forward-looking, intellectually honest, and
solutions-based. One rooted in the real world, not Conservative
Wonderland’s fantasies and hysteria.
If we’re RINOs, then it’s time for us to turn at bay, and charge!
© Copyright 2012 Michael Stafford, distributed exclusively by Cagle
Cartoons newspaper syndicate. His column is licensed to run on TMV in
full. Michael Stafford is a former Republican Party officer and the
author of “An Upward Calling.” Michael can be reached at
anupwardcalling at yahoo.com
- -
03/08/2012
Michael Stafford: "GOP Stuck In A Conservative Wonderland"
Michael Stafford D.R. Tucker joins Betsy to interview the author of a
brilliant new column called
"GOP Stuck In A Conservative Wonderland". Michael Stafford is a
Republican with some tough questions about his party's decline into
extreme distortions of the facts, most notably in questioning the
science of evolution and climate change. His insights are especially
timely and valuable as he compares the surreality of this political
moment to not so distant history.
https://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/files/greenfront030712-2.mp3
http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/greenfront/2012/03/michael-stafford-gop-stuck-in-a-conservative-wonderland-.html
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