[✔️] November 3, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Faster than expected, In the Pipeline, Zero to Hero, 1.5 Goal, Polluter pays, West is burning, Preparing for the worst, 2010 Obama

Fri Nov 3 08:21:53 EDT 2023

/*November *//*3, 2023*/

/[ from most respected climate scientist James Hansen ]/
*New study warns climate is warming even faster than some think*
Andrew Freedman
A new study warns the Earth's climate is on track to warm significantly 
more than shown by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 
(IPCC) projections.

Driving the news: The paper, published Thursday in the peer-reviewed 
journal Oxford Open Climate Change, is a synthesis of new and previous 
discoveries across multiple fields. It is peppered with policy 
prescriptions, unusual for a scientific paper.

The stark warning comes from ex-NASA scientist James Hansen, who is the 
lead author of the report. In 1988, he famously and accurately warned 
that human-caused warming would soon emerge from the background noise of 
natural variability.
-- Why it matters: Should the paper's authors be proven correct this 
time, the globe can expect more severe extreme weather events, species 
losses and sea level rise than currently projected.

The paper lands as the planet endures its warmest year on record, with 
sizzling new benchmarks set on land and sea. Each month since May has 
set consecutive new milestones.
Yes, but: Hansen has long straddled the line between scientist and 
activist. In the new paper, he recommends pursuing a range of policy 
options, from putting a price on carbon to geoengineering.

In this study, he calls on climate scientists to embrace the 
responsibilities medical professionals have to their patients. He argues 
they have been too reticent and conservative to lay out the full 
ramifications of warming.
"We are in the early phase of a climate emergency," Hansen writes.
What they found: The study finds that the warming resulting from 
doubling carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, also known as 
equilibrium climate sensitivity, is higher than the current consensus view.

The authors calculated a total warming of 4.8°C (8.6°F) for a doubling 
of CO2, above the IPCC's most recent estimate of 3°C (5.4°F), though not 
discordant with some previously published work.
The paper finds that global warming has been accelerating since 2010 and 
that this will soon become clear in the data. Specifically, it notes 
that a warming rate of 0.18°C (0.32°F) per decade, recorded between 
1970-2010, will spike to 0.27°C (0.48°F) per decade after 2010.
It concludes the quickening pace of warming is not well-handled by 
computer models.
Between the lines: Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who was not 
involved in the new study, told Axios that research varies on estimating 
the amount of warming the world would see due to a doubling of CO2 
concentrations.

He adds the new study's estimate is on the high side of previous research.
Hansen's findings also put forward that the planet's energy imbalance is 
growing, with more and more heat trapped in Earth's atmosphere.
-- The intrigue: Hansen and his coauthors argue that immediate and deep 
cuts in greenhouse gas emissions alone won't be sufficient to forestall 
dangerous levels of climate change.

The paper opens the door to endorsing geoengineering, referred to as 
"climate restoration" in the paper, for a short period of time. This 
involves deliberately trying to counter warming's effects by modifying 
the climate in other ways.

The other side: While there are indications that climate change has sped 
up, some scientists disagree quite strongly with Hansen's findings.

Hausfather wrote this week that although the warming rate has clearly 
sped up since the 1970s, it is within the range anticipated by climate 
models.
Model simulations, he found, depict warming to be about 40% faster in 
the 2015-2030 period, compared to 1970-2014.
What they're saying: Michael Mann, a climate researcher at the 
University of Pennsylvania, told Axios via email that he doesn't believe 
the authors "have made the case for any of the major claims...or that 
climate models are getting this wrong."

He noted that ocean heat content, a key indicator of the planet's heat 
budget, "shows a very steady, rather than accelerating, increase."
Yet Katharine Hayhoe, a climate researcher and chief scientist at the 
Nature Conservancy, told Axios the study is an effective communications 
tool, since it tells people not only how serious things are, but also 
some possible solutions.

She noted reservations about his endorsement of solar radiation 
management, a geoengineering technique that could decrease the amount of 
solar radiation coming into the atmosphere.
The bottom line: "The fact that he puts the solutions right there in the 
abstract is actually exactly what needs to be done psychologically in 
the way that we communicate about climate change," Hayhoe said in an 
interview.

"If we tell people how bad it is, which it is, but we don't tell people 
what to do about it, then you can have the whole world worried and 
nothing will happen
https://www.axios.com/2023/11/02/climate-change-warming-james-hansen

- -

/[ research paper from _Oxford Open Climate Change_  ]/
*Global warming in the pipeline *
James E Hansen, Makiko Sato, Leon Simons, Larissa S Nazarenko, Isabelle 
Sangha, Pushker Kharecha, James C Zachos, Karina von Schuckmann, Norman 
G Loeb, Matthew B Osman ...
Oxford Open Climate Change, Volume 3, Issue 1, 2023, 
...https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008
Published: 02 November 2023

    *Abstract*
    Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature
    change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate
    sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for
    doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full
    Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace
    gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm
    in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free
    planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models.
    Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is
    reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming
    is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would
    prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of
    aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global
    warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least
    0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to
    GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C
    before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global
    warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of
    consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature.
    Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG
    emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable,
    dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that
    accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with
    Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made
    ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises
    present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can
    grasp their situation.

https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889?login=false

/[ Everybody, needs to do everything, all at once ]/
*Zero to Hero? Achieving Net Zero Emissions*
ClimateAdam
Nov 2, 2023  #ClimateChange #climatecrisis #netzero
To stop the world from heating, and halt climate change, we need net 
zero. But how? How could we get humanity's overall emissions to zero? 
And is this global warming goal just a pipe dream? Now the International 
Energy Agency (IEA) have highlighted a plan to get there by 2050, with 
the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. So what does the plan look 
like... and could it actually work?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PASLkAkHrU

- -

/[ Here is the report ]/
*Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach*
In 2021, the IEA published its landmark report, Net Zero by 2050: A 
Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Since then, the energy sector has 
seen major shifts. Based on the latest data on technologies, markets and 
policies, this report presents an updated version of the Net Zero 
Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario; a pathway, but not the only one, for 
the energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and play its 
part, as the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, in achieving 
the 1.5 °C goal...
https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach/executive-summary

/[ "Polluter pays" - 60 second statement - video ]/
*They are making profits by killing people - it is as simple as that!
*Nick Breeze ClimateGenn
  Nov 2, 2023
“They’re making profits by killing people, it’s as simple as as that!” 
Professor Saleemul Huq, speaking about fossil fuel companies at COP23. 
https://genn.cc/dr-saleemul-huq-cop23/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VYuGBW7--s

/[ video overview ]
/*The West is Burning - Feature Documentary*
Landmark Stories
  Sep 11, 2021  #environmentalstudies #climatechange2021 
#climatechangedocumentary
The West is Burning raises awareness about the conditions of forests in 
the western U.S. Told through a full-feature documentary, we examine the 
history of forest management and litigation that led to the current 
conditions which are causing catastrophic fire nearly year-round. The 
film explores the urgent need to act now, and the potential to generate 
positive change in our forests, watersheds, and communities, both rural 
and urban.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=km6azKlFTTQ/
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/[ short video, simple attitude advice, yes I will...thank you ]/
*How to Prepare for the Worst*
The School of Life
Nov 1, 2023
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L6VqVoO7ng

/[The news archive - President Obama ]/
/*November 3, 2010 */
November 3, 2010: In a post-midterm election press conference, President 
Obama states:
"With respect to the EPA, I think the smartest thing for us to do is to 
see if we can get Democrats and Republicans in a room who are serious 
about energy independence and are serious about keeping our air clean 
and our water clean and dealing with the issue of greenhouse gases -- 
and seeing are there ways that we can make progress in the short term 
and invest in technologies in the long term that start giving us the 
tools to reduce greenhouse gases and solve this problem.

"The EPA is under a court order that says greenhouse gases are a 
pollutant that fall under their jurisdiction. And I think one of the 
things that's very important for me is not to have us ignore the 
science, but rather to find ways that we can solve these problems that 
don’t hurt the economy, that encourage the development of clean energy 
in this country, that, in fact, may give us opportunities to create 
entire new industries and create jobs that -- and that put us in a 
competitive posture around the world.

  "So I think it’s too early to say whether or not we can make some 
progress on that front.  I think we can.  Cap and trade was just one way 
of skinning the cat; it was not the only way.  It was a means, not an 
end.  And I’m going to be looking for other means to address this problem.

  "And I think EPA wants help from the legislature on this.  I don’t 
think that the desire is to somehow be protective of their powers here.  
I think what they want to do is make sure that the issue is being dealt 
with."

(35:15-38:48)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4F8e2Cye08

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