[✔️] April 20, 2024 Global Warming News | AI climate, AMOC weakens, Drought declared, Tipping points, Subside China, 2002 wrangling the IPCC

[Richard Pauli]

/*April *//*20, 2024*/

/[ We knew that Al  will reach global warming - 54 min audio ]/
*Climate One*
We’re living through a climate emergency; addressing this crisis begins 
by talking about it. Co-Hosts Greg Dalton and Ariana Brocious bring you 
empowering conversations that connect all aspects of the challenge — the 
scary and the exciting, the individual and the systemic. Join us. 
Subscribe to Climate One on Patreon for access to ad-free episodes and 
the Climate One Discord server. Show Less
*       Artificial Intelligence, Real Climate Impacts*
Artificial intelligence can do some pretty amazing things, including for 
the climate. AI can help optimize the electric grid, make heating and 
cooling buildings more efficient, and pinpoint exactly where greenhouse 
gas emissions are coming from all around the world.
On the other hand, the energy use of AI is massive and growing. A recent 
study estimates that in just a few years, the extra energy needed will 
equal whole countries the size of Sweden or Argentina. How do we make 
sure the benefits of AI outweigh its energy costs?

    Guests
        Karen Hao, Contributing Writer, The Atlantic
        Gavin McCormick, Cofounder and Executive Director, WattTime;
    Cofounder, Climate TRACE
        Priya Donti, Assistant Professor, MIT; Co-founder and Chair of
    Climate Change AI
        Amy McGovern, Professor of Computer Science, University of Oklahoma

https://listen.climateone.org/ArtificialIntelligence


/[ recently published in Nature.com ]/
19 April 2024
*Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation abyssal 
limb in the North Atlantic*
Tiago Carrilho Biló, Renellys C. Perez, Shenfu Dong, William Johns & 
Torsten Kanzow
Nature Geoscience (2024)

    *Abstract*
    The abyssal limb of the global Meridional Overturning Circulation
    redistributes heat and carbon as it carries Antarctic Bottom Water
    from the Southern Ocean towards the Northern Hemisphere. Using
    mooring observations and hydrographic data from multiple sources in
    the North Atlantic, we show that northward-flowing Antarctic Bottom
    Water is constrained below 4,500 m with a mean volume transport of
    2.40 ± 0.25 Sv at 16° N. We find that during 2000–2020, the
    Antarctic Bottom Water northward transport weakened by approximately
    0.35 ± 0.13 Sv, corresponding to a 12 ± 5% decrease. The weakening
    of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation abyssal cell is a
    probable response to reduced Antarctic Bottom Water formation rates
    over the past several decades and is associated with abyssal warming
    observed throughout the western Atlantic Ocean. We estimate that the
    warming of the Antarctic Bottom Water layer in the subtropical North
    Atlantic is, on average, 1 m°C per year in the last two decades due
    to the downward heaving of abyssal isopycnals, contributing to the
    increase of abyssal heat content and, hence, sea-level rise in the
    region (1 m°C = 0.001 °C). This warming trend is approximately half
    of the Antarctic Bottom Water warming trend observed in the South
    Atlantic and parts of the Southern Ocean, indicating a dilution of
    the signal as the Antarctic Bottom Water crosses the Equator.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01422-4



/[ //Department of Ecology News Release - April 16, 2024 ]/
*Statewide drought declared due to low snowpack and dry forecast*
Limited exceptions for metro areas with healthy water storage
OLYMPIA  –
With winter’s snowstorms largely behind us and summer just weeks away, 
our state’s low snowpack and forecasts for a dry and warm spring and 
summer have spurred the Department of Ecology to declare a drought 
emergency for most of Washington.

After an exceptionally dry start to the winter, Washington’s snowpack 
made up some ground in February, March and April. But with chances for 
significant additions to our snowpack now diminishing, there is simply 
not enough water contained in mountain snow and reservoirs to prevent 
serious impacts for water users in the months ahead. With many 
watersheds already projecting low water supplies and planning for 
emergency water right transfers, Ecology declared a drought to make 
assistance available before those impacts become severe.

“As our climate continues to change, we’re increasingly seeing our 
winters bring more rain and less snow,” said Washington Gov. Jay Inslee. 
“We depend on that winter snowpack to meet the needs of Washington’s 
farmers, fish, and communities during the dry summer months. And this 
year, it’s just not at the level we’re accustomed to and rely on.”

Ecology is making up to $4.5 million available in drought response 
grants to qualifying public entities to respond to impacts from the 
current drought conditions.

“By moving quickly to declare a drought, we can begin delivering 
financial support to water systems with drought impacts, and work with 
water users to find solutions to challenges before they become a 
crisis,” said Laura Watson, Ecology’s director.

Ecology is working closely with other state agencies to coordinate the 
drought response.

“Snowpack, rainfall, and irrigation flows from major rivers provide the 
necessary water supply to sustain our communities and the agriculture 
industry,” said Washington State Department of Agriculture Director 
Derek Sandison. “The anticipated drought conditions this year emphasize 
the importance of building drought resilience into water management 
strategies throughout the state.”

  The impacts of low flows raise serious concerns for fish and other 
species, said Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Director Kelly 
Susewind.

“With decreased snowpack and the potential for low flows and warmer 
water conditions this summer, it could be a difficult year for fish and 
other aquatic wildlife,” Susewind said. “We’re working together to 
mitigate drought impacts on fish, wildlife and the habitat they depend 
on to survive.”

In Washington, drought is declared when there is less than 75% of normal 
water supply and there is the risk of undue hardship. Declaring a 
drought emergency allows Ecology to distribute drought response grants 
and to process emergency water right permits and transfers.

Excluded from the new drought declaration are limited areas in Seattle, 
Tacoma and Everett. Utilities in these cities have reservoir storage and 
water management strategies that make them more resilient to drought 
than other systems.

The new drought declaration is really a continuation of 2023’s drought 
emergency, which covered 12 watersheds across the state. Even as the 
rains returned last fall, Ecology’s drought monitors warned that it 
would take an unusually cool, wet, rainy season to make up for those 
deficits. Unfortunately, an El Niño weather pattern brought more warm 
weather and left many mountaintops bare in early winter. The 2023 
drought declaration was scheduled to end June 30 this year. The new, 
statewide declaration will continue into next year.

*Current conditions*
Statewide snowpack currently stands at 68%. Some areas, including the 
Olympic Mountains, Lower Yakima and north Puget Sound, have 
significantly lower snowpack. Streamflows in many basins are already 
below 75% of normal. Forecasts for April through September have Chelan 
River streamflows at 52%of normal, while the Stehekin, Methow and 
Okanagan rivers are forecasted to have 59% of normal streamflows.

Climate predictions for April through August are for generally warmer 
and drier than normal conditions throughout Washington.

*What can you do?*
There are several ways individuals can conserve water during times of 
scarcity. Habits as simple as turning off the faucet while brushing your 
to teeth or running the dishwasher only when it’s full can make a 
difference. Visit Ecology’s water conservation page to learn more.

Contact information
Jimmy Norris
Communications Manager
jimmy.norris at ecy.wa.gov
https://ecology.wa.gov/about-us/who-we-are/news/2024-news-stories/april-16-drought-declaration



/[ Paul Beckwith reviews a paper on tipping points - see video 
illustrations  ]/
*Tipping Points in the Ocean and Atmosphere Global Circulations*
Paul Beckwith
Apr 18, 2024
I chat here about the latest science on tipping points in the dynamic 
fluid systems of the Earth, namely the ocean circulation patterns and 
the atmospheric circulation patterns.

The most recent key review document containing this knowledge summary is 
“Global Tipping Points 2023”: https://global-tipping-points.org/

The key ocean current systems that are presently showing early warning 
signs of rapid approach to tipping points include the Atlantic 
Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and 
the Antarctic Southern Circulation systems.

There is a huge risk that as the slowdown and even stoppage of some of 
these global ocean circulation systems proceeds, the monsoonal rainfall 
in the tropics from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will all 
change, as the ITCZ would shift southward, so the existing monsoonal 
patterns would all shift, with the existing monsoonal regions getting 
much drier as the rainfall falls in regions further to the south. 
Clearly, this would impact millions to hundreds of millions to even 
billions of people in these regions.

Also, changes to the atmospheric circulation are examined, with the 
conclusion (in the review paper) essentially being that the shifts are 
not likely to exhibit tipping behaviour (don’t think I agree).

Also, effects on the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) to a more 
“permanent El Niño state) are discussed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkYT1dxGtDQ



/[ Predicament in China (and for Texas) -- we are not surprised  ]/
*Water extraction and weight of buildings see half of China's cities sink*
4-18-24
By Matt McGrath,
Environment correspondent
Nearly half of China's major cities are sinking because of water 
extraction and the increasing weight of their rapid expansion, 
researchers say.

Some cities are subsiding rapidly, with one in six exceeding 10mm per year.

China's rapid urbanisation in recent decades means far more water is now 
being drawn up to meet people's needs, scientists say.

In coastal cities, this subsidence threatens millions of people with 
flooding as sea levels rise.
  map 
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/14B1/production/_133179250_china_subsidence_map_2x_640-nc.png.webp
China has a long history of dealing with subsiding land, with both 
Shanghai and Tianjin showing evidence of sinking back in the 1920s. 
Shanghai has sunk more than 3m over the past century.

In more modern times, the country is seeing widespread evidence of 
subsidence in many of the cities that have expanded rapidly in recent 
decades.

To understand the scale of the problem, a team of researchers from 
several Chinese universities have examined 82 cities, including all with 
a population over 2 million.

They've used data from the Sentinel-1 satellites to measure vertical 
land motions across the country.
Looking across the period from 2015 to 2022, the team was able to work 
out that 45% of urban areas are subsiding by more than 3mm per year.

Around 16% of urban land is going down faster than 10mm a year, which 
the scientists describe as a rapid descent.

Put another way, this means 67 million people are living in rapidly 
sinking areas.

The researchers say that the cities facing the worst problems are 
concentrated in the five regions highlighted on the map shown.

The scale of decline is influenced by a number of factors, including 
geology and the weight of buildings. But a major element, according to 
the authors, is groundwater loss.
This essentially means the extraction of water underneath or near cities 
for use by the local population.
This has already been seen in several major urban areas around the world 
including Houston, Mexico City and Delhi.
In China, the research team were able to associate the extraction of 
water from over 1,600 monitoring wells with increasing levels of subsidence.

"I think the water extraction is, to my mind, probably the dominant 
reason," said Prof Robert Nicholls, from the University of East Anglia, 
who was not involved in the research.
"In China there are lots of people living in areas that have been fairly 
recently sedimented, geologically speaking. So when you take out 
groundwater or you drain the soils, they tend to subside."

Other factors that are influencing subsidence include urban 
transportation systems and mining for minerals and coal.
In the northern region of Pingdingshan, one of the largest coal areas in 
the country, land is subsiding at an extremely rapid 109mm per year.

The authors of the study say that a big threat going forward is the 
exposure of urban populations to flooding, from a combination of 
subsidence and sea level rise brought about by climate change.
In 2020, around 6% of China had a relative elevation below sea level. In 
100 years time, this could rise to 26% of the country in a mid to high 
carbon emissions scenario.

The researchers say the land is sinking faster than the seas are rising, 
but together they would put hundreds of millions at risk of flooding.

However, research shows that there are effective strategies that can 
combat the slow decline.

Subsidence issues have afflicted other major urban centres in Asia, 
including Osaka and Tokyo in Japan in the past.

"Tokyo subsided around the port area, up to five metres in the 20th 
century," said Prof Nicholls.

"But in the 1970s, they provided good piped water from other areas and 
they also had a law saying you will not use well water and essentially 
it stopped the subsidence."

The study has been published in the journal Science.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68844731

- -

/[ Research study published ]/
*A national-scale assessment of land subsidence in China’s major cities*

    *Abstract*
    China’s massive wave of urbanization may be threatened by land
    subsidence. Using a spaceborne synthetic aperture radar
    interferometry technique, we provided a systematic assessment of
    land subsidence in all of China’s major cities from 2015 to 2022. Of
    the examined urban lands, 45% are subsiding faster than 3
    millimeters per year, and 16% are subsiding faster than 10
    millimeters per year, affecting 29 and 7% of the urban population,
    respectively. The subsidence appears to be associated with a range
    of factors such as groundwater withdrawal and the weight of
    buildings. By 2120, 22 to 26% of China’s coastal lands will have a
    relative elevation lower than sea level, hosting 9 to 11% of the
    coastal population, because of the combined effect of city
    subsidence and sea-level rise. Our results underscore the necessity
    of enhancing protective measures to mitigate potential damages from
    subsidence.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl4366


/[The news archive - Bush has a growing portfolio of blockages ]/
/*April 20, 2002 */
April 20, 2002: The Guardian reports:

    *US and oil lobby oust climate change scientist*
    This article is more than 22 years old
    Julian Borger in Washington
    Sat 20 Apr 2002

    The head of the international scientific panel on climate change,
    which has called for urgent action to curb global warming, was
    deposed yesterday after a campaign by the Bush administration,
    Exxon-Mobil and other energy companies to get him replaced.

    At a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
    Change (IPCC) in Geneva, Robert Watson, a British-born US
    atmospheric scientist who has been its chairman since 1996, was
    replaced by an Indian railway engineer and environmentalist, R K
    Pachauri.

    Dr Pachauri received 76 votes to Dr Watson's 49 after a
    behind-the-scenes diplomatic campaign by the US to persuade
    developing countries to vote against Dr Watson, according to
    diplomats. The British delegation argued for Dr Watson and Dr
    Pachauri to share the chairmanship.

    The US campaign came to light after the disclosure of a confidential
    memorandum from the world's biggest oil company, Exxon-Mobil, to the
    White House, proposing a strategy for his removal.

    This included the removal of President Bill Clinton's appointees on
    the US delegation, and their replacement by officials more
    sympathetic to the needs of industry.

    Steve Sawyer, a Greenpeace climate change specialist, said: "Even
    the most cynical would be shocked by the heavy-handed tactics of the
    US delegation's bald display of their fossil fuel- backed politics."

    Diplomats in Washington confirmed that the US had pursued an active
    campaign against Dr Watson.

    Although he comes from an industrial background, Dr Pachauri is one
    of India's leading environmentalists and has supported
    implementation of the Kyoto treaty on global warming - a treaty the
    Bush administration has rejected.

    Environmentalists argued that the anti-Watson campaign was a show of
    strength by the US, oil producers like Saudi Arabia, and oil
    corporations like Exxon-Mobil, intended to cow the IPCC.

    However, the head of the US delegation to the IPCC, Harlan Watson,
    denied claims of a vendetta and said that Dr Pachauri was both well
    qualified and the first strong candidate put forward by the
    developing world.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/20/internationaleducationnews.climatechange


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