[✔️] Jan 7, 2024 Global Warming News | Gov Inslee, RealClimate, retrodiction, Data trends, Hayhoe, 1982 Dr Hansen,

[Richard Pauli]

/*January*//*7, 2024*/

/[ Rude interviewers from KIRO radio - //Click link for audio. //]/
*Exclusive: Gov. Jay Inslee doubles down on the Climate Commitment Act 
despite high gas prices*
Jan 5, 2024
BY BILL KACZARABA
MyNorthwest Content Editor
Gov. Jay Inslee spoke with KIRO Newsradio’s Colleen O’Brien Friday 
morning on Seattle’s Morning News and continued to defend the Climate 
Commitment Act and the high gas prices in Washington State.

Listen to the entire interview: 
https://shows.audiocdn.com/s/bonneville/highlights-seattles-morn-d4b6b7/gov-jay-inslee-defends-c-ba6dc8 

 From KIRO Newsradio’s Seattle’s Morning News, here is the full transcript:

    *Colleen O’Brien: *Joining us live now is Governor Jay Inslee ahead
    of his trip to Clark County today, the governor is talking about a
    new Criminal Justice Training Commission center opening there,
    something needed in our state to bolster recruitment efforts, plus a
    solar facility, new affordable housing. We want to talk about that,
    but Governor, I have to start with the exchange you had with
    reporters yesterday regarding evidence that emerged that multiple
    analysts knew and informed you and lawmakers about the impact on gas
    prices from the Climate Commitment Act. We heard you yesterday
    denying that this evidence was valid, despite the analysts being
    spot on and prices showing it is up 40 to 45 cents a gallon. That’s
    exactly what happened. How do you respond to that today?

    *Gov. Jay* Inslee: Well, first off, we would be pleased prices have
    come down almost a dollar.

    *Colleen*: On a national average.

    *Inslee: *It has come down has come down about $1. So that’s good news.

    *Colleen: *Our prices are still higher here in our state.

    *Inslee:* Unfortunately, our prices have aways been higher on the
    West Coast of the United States, in Oregon and Idaho. That has
    always been the case, and Oregon, Washington, and California have
    always been in the top five or six nationally. And we ought to now
    continue this effort to drive down pollution, the oil companies want
    to be able to pollute in infinite amounts, which are harming the
    health of our children. And we cannot allow infinite pollution,
    we’ve got to have a cap on the amount of pollution. We also have to
    get to transparency. So, we really know about potential gouging by
    the oil industry. This is an industry that wants to continue to make
    $200 billion of profits while whipsawing us on their prices. And
    then polluting in increasing amounts. We can’t accept that, and we
    aren’t going to go backward to allow more pollution. You know,
    there’s a study just the other day that found 16 communities in
    Washington started with Ellsberg that have a reduction of life of
    two and a half years as a result of the pollution from this
    industry. So we are going to continue our effort to restrain
    pollution. And we’re going to use the dollars generated by this to
    really help Washingtonians. One of the things I’m going to Vancouver
    for today is to look at a community solar installation, I believe,
    to really help people get access to cheaper electricity to get solar
    panels for their houses.

    *Colleen: *Nobody’s denying that solar energy is good for us, that
    we don’t want pollution, and that pollution is bad for our health.
    Nobody is arguing that everybody sees prices going down on the
    national front. But we’re looking at the data right in front of us.
    In fact, Chris Sullivan has the data on gas prices and surrounding
    states. What I want you to focus on, though, is the Climate
    Commitment Act. This was your Climate Commitment Act. We’re not
    talking about solar facilities, we’re not talking about pollution
    impacts, or we’re talking about the impact of the Climate Commitment
    Act on gas prices. And that Washingtonians are really struggling,
    governor.

    *Inslee:* So let me finish the sentence here for a second so we can
    have an honest discussion here. We are talking about those who want
    to repeal the Climate Commitment Act, which would eliminate the help
    we’re giving to Washingtonians to deal with these high prices,
    including a proposal we have made to help 2 million Washingtonians
    with their utility bills by using the funds. And, in fact,
    unfortunately, there are those who are, in fact, trying to eliminate
    that stream of funding that is helping so many people get their
    utility bills lower, and unfortunately, there are those who want to
    pollute in infinite amounts. And it’s unfortunate, but that is the
    truth. So I’m we’re gonna go down and celebrate some good news down
    in Clark County about moving forward against climate change. I’m
    proud of our state, we are leading the country on it, we’re going to
    continue. We’re also going to go down today and celebrate this new
    criminal justice training center. We need more officers on the
    street. And what we’ve done is to have two new criminal justice
    training centers, which really helps our recruiting so that people
    can get trained closer to where they live. I’ve also proposed a $10
    million fund to help local communities hire more police officers as
    well. I’m hoping the legislature will fund 80 new positions with the
    State Patrol. This is something that’s needed. And we want to
    celebrate that today.

    *Colleen:* Absolutely something that’s needed in the state. Now, the
    initiative to repeal the Climate Commitment Act is likely a reaction
    to the fact that you told and we have you on record saying prices
    would go up just pennies if anything, and you said, in fact, gas
    prices might lower, and that has turned out to be not true.
    Governor, I won’t call it a lie because we don’t know your intent,
    but it’s not true. What would it cost you politically to just admit
    the Climate Commitment Act did increase gas prices more than you
    said it would. Consumers are hurting, and they want to see it go away.

    *Inslee: *So they don’t want to see it go away. And I’ll tell you
    why they want to have cleaner air, and they don’t want to have
    infinite pollution. This bill fundamentally caps the amount of
    pollution our kids are breathing. We have an epidemic of asthma in
    our in our state. We have forest fires burning down whole towns. And
    I do believe Washingtonians want to restrain pollution. I also think
    they want to have transparency about the oil company profits that
    people are making. And they don’t want to be whipsawed by this.
    That’s one of the reasons we want to link our market with California
    and Quebec, so that we can restraint, restraint, some of the
    compliance costs that companies do have, I think that can be a
    salutary impact look like a part of our college, he made honest,
    good faith efforts trying to predict what the oil companies would
    do. But they control it, they whipsaw us, we don’t control those
    prices. They raised prices more than the ecology company department
    predicted based on the information they had at that time in
    California. That was a good-faith effort. And now we’re making big
    investments to help Washingtonians get cheaper, more reliable, and
    cleaner energy. And I hope we will continue on that path.

    *Chris Sullivan, Senior Transportation Reporter: *Governor, you talk
    about the transparency. One thing that I think confuses a lot of
    people is perhaps the perspective you talk about the whipsawing and
    the gouging of these evil oil companies. Why does that not extend
    past Washington’s borders? Why are they not gouging the same amount
    in Idaho and Washington? Why is Oregon’s price 70 cents cheaper than
    Washington’s today? Idaho’s 94 cents? Why does the gouging only seem
    to impact Washington?

    *Inslee:* Well, to start, if you look back, roll back the tape. West
    Coast states have always been in the top five of gas prices in the
    United States.

    *Colleen: *But not by $1. Between them. Well, it’s not $1. I haven’t
    looked, it is $1. Today, between Idaho and 76 cents in Oregon, it’s
    never been that much.

    *Inslee: *It has been significant differences. The Department of
    Ecology told people there would be some costs associated with this.
    It’s probably not in the range of the dollar. I disagree with that
    assessment.

    *Sully: *Well, I’ve paid it driving back and forth between Montana
    almost every weekend this last couple of months. You go across the
    Idaho border Boom, 80 to 90 cents cheaper. That’s a fact in the case.

    *Inslee: *Well enough to look at the graphs that I have.

    *Sully:* I have the graphs in front of me.

    *Inslee: *I can tell you this: we should not allow this pollution,
    this pollution in infinite amounts, number one, number two, we
    should have a law in this state which insists on transparency of the
    oil companies to find out why they are making profits of $200
    billion while their whipsawing us on these, and we should do that,
    and I hope that the legislature will pass that this year and
    continue and not cut off the funds that are helping, including our
    transportation. Look, we have a transportation problem. We have
    problems with our ferries. And if this bill is eliminated, it will
    blow a $1 billion hole in our ability to continue to build this
    state. I do not believe that’s the route we should go. This is
    helping us build our state, and I think we should continue to do
    that. With that, I’m gonna have to excuse myself because I’ve got to
    get on the road. But I look forward to their conversation.

    *Colleen: *Governor Jay Inslee, we do appreciate you joining us and
    talking about the Climate Commitment Act. If the reaction on our
    text line says anything. It’s gonna be a tough fight against that
    initiative this year. I’m looking forward to a good discussion.
    Thank you, governor of our state. Thanks a lot.

    This interview has been edited slightly for grammar and clarity.

    Seattle’s Morning News is on KIRO Newsradio weekdays from 5-9 a.m.

https://mynorthwest.com/3945399/exclusive-gov-jay-inslee-doubles-down-on-the-climate-commitment-act-despite-high-gas-prices/


/[ Phase Out from RealClimate - the scientifically top site on the 
Internet ]/
*RealClimate*
Climate science from climate scientists...
Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO
5 JAN 2024 BY GAVIN
For the last few years (since at least 2016), I’ve shared predictions 
for the next annual global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) anomaly 
based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO at the start of the 
year. Generally speaking, this has been quite skillful compared to 
persistence or just the long term trend alone – the eventual anomaly was 
consistently within the predicted bounds. Until 2023.

As described in my original post on 538, I take a loess smooth for the 
GISTEMP long term trend (using roughly 20 year smoothing) and add a term 
based on the linear regression of the beginning of the year Multivariate 
ENSO Index (MEI2) (similar to Nino34) to the detrended anomalies (not 
including some big volcanic years). This makes sense since, 
historically, the interannual variations in GMSAT were largest in the 
first half of the year and dominated by the phase of ENSO (El Niño or La 
Niña). This pattern was important for recent record or near-record years 
like 2016 or 2020 which started with El Niño, as well as below-trend 
years like 2017, 2021 etc. that started with La Niña. The development of 
the ENSO phase in the latter part of the year (which peaks around 
December/January) generally has less of an impact because of the lag of 
~3 months or so of its affect on global temperatures.

There are two main sources of uncertainty in this method, the variation 
of temperature not related to the prior ENSO, and the uncertainty in the 
DJF ENSO index from the Dec predictions. Thus the true prediction (made 
around Jan 1), is slightly more uncertain than the retrodiction (which 
knows the actual DJF ENSO value). As mentioned above, this technique has 
historically been quite skillful:
- -
The RMS forecast error (not including 2023), is 0.07ºC, compared to 
0.10ºC for persistence or smoothed trends. This year however was 
noticeably warmer than the prediction or retrodiction based only on DJF 
ENSO at the beginning of the year (which you will recall was a slight La 
Niña), falling well above the 95% CI.
  - - https://www.realclimate.org/images/gistemp_pred538_2024-1536x1536.png
This could be due to a real anomaly in the interannual variability that 
was outside the 95% expectation, a mis-specification in the statistical 
model (e.g. we could have included an autumnal ENSO state as an 
additional predictor, or taken predicted forcings (solar, aerosols, 
volcanoes) into account), or something extra that we just haven’t seen 
before.

But how are we going to find out? What happens in 2024 will be 
important. Does it go back to being predictable based on ENSO (in which 
case 2024 is expected to just be a little warmer than 2023), or does the 
positive anomaly persist? We will also be seeing more comprehensive 
estimates of the impact of the Hunga-Tonga eruption, and also of the 
impacts of the decreases in marine shipping emissions. It might be that 
the initial estimates of their impacts were underestimated. We will also 
see more in depth explorations of the spring to fall anomalies in the 
North Atlantic/North Pacific which contributed strongly to the 
temperature changes, but aren’t obviously related to El Niño.

If nothing else, 2023 reminds us that the climate system still has 
surprises for us, and that this would be a very bad time to our eyes off 
the ball.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hq5Sjs-syu0
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/01/annual-gmsat-predictions-and-enso/

- -

/[ A retrodiction in Wikipedia ]/
A *retrodiction* occurs when already gathered data is accounted for by a 
later theoretical advance in a more convincing fashion. The advantage of 
a retrodiction over a prediction is that the already gathered data is 
more likely to be free of experimenter bias. An example of a 
retrodiction is the perihelion shift of Mercury which Newtonian 
mechanics plus gravity was unable, totally, to account for whilst 
Einstein's general relativity made short work of it.[5]

Another use refers to a process by which one attempts to test a theory 
whose predictions are too long-term to be tested by waiting for a future 
event to occur. Instead, one speculates about uncertain events in the 
more distant past, and applies the theory to consider how it would have 
predicted a known event in the less distant past. This is useful in, for 
example, the fields of archaeology, climatology, evolutionary biology, 
financial analysis, forensic science, and cosmology.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retrodiction



/[ Data trends ]/*//
Google searches for climate refugee up 15% in past week
*Worldwide-Thursday, December 28, 2023 - Wednesday, January 3, 2024
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=climate%20refugee



/[Talking Climate with Katharine Hayhoe  ]/
*The science is clear: to stabilize climate, we have to phase out fossil 
fuels.*
Katharine Hayhoe
Dec 11
Yet in the latest draft of the COP28 Global Stocktake, that phrase has 
been removed. Instead, it calls for "abatement" of coal and "reducing 
both consumption and production of fossil fuels" -- and that's not enough.

For that reason, I've joined over 2000 CEOs, investors, NGOs, health 
professionals, scientists, academics, youth, faith leaders to sign this 
letter, which calls for:

    1. An orderly phase out of all fossil fuels in a just & equitable way

    2. A price on carbon and tripling investments for renewable energy

    3. A halt and reversal of deforestation, land degradation & other
    ecosystem loss by 2030; safeguarding the territories of indigenous
    peoples; ensuring resilient food systems; and a strong global goal
    on adaptation

Together, we stand in support behind all countries in delivering a 1.5°C 
aligned plan which will ensure the safety and health of our planet for 
future generations.

It’s time for world leaders to prove which side of history they are 
on--because #LaterisTooLate.
youtube.com/shorts/hq5Sjs-syu0

https://substack.com/@katharinehayhoe/note/c-45230172?utm_source=feed-email-digest



/[The news archive - Dr Hansen early statements more than 40 years ago ]/
/*January 7, 1982 */
January 7, 1982: The New York Times reports:

    "Mankind's activities in increasing the amount of carbon dioxide and
    other chemicals in the atmosphere can be expected to have a
    substantial warming effect on climate, with the first clear signs of
    the trend becoming evident within this decade, a scientist at the
    National Aeronautics and Space Administration said here today.

    "The changes are in prospect because of excess carbon dioxide put
    into the atmosphere as humans burn coal, gas, oil and wood and cut
    forests for agriculture and other purposes. More recently there has
    also been an atmospheric buildup of methane, nitrous oxide and other
    chemicals as a result of agriculture and industry, said Dr. James
    Hansen of the space agency's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in
    New York.

    "Dr. Hansen spoke at a session of the annual meeting of the American
    Association for the Advancement of Science here and amplified some
    of his remarks at a news conference."

http://www.nytimes.com/1982/01/07/us/warming-of-world-s-climate-expected-to-begin-in-the-80-s.html




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