[✔️] March 27, 2024 Global Warming News | Collapse studies, Slow currents, Ice loss in Greenland, Sabine's optimism bias, Beginning to migrate, Europe polices, 2007 misinformations

[Richard Pauli]

/*March*//*27, 2024*/

/[ reading collapse studies ]/
*Approaching the Collapse Threshold: Extreme Melting and Instability 
Measured in NE Greenland Glacier*
Paul Beckwith
Mar 25, 2024
A significant study on the so-called 79NG (79 degrees latitude North 
Greenland) coastal glacier was just released, in an open source 
peer-reviewed paper.

General news-release article: 
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-enormous-ice-loss-greenland-glacier.html

Peer-reviewed scientific paper article:
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1333/2024/tc-18-1333-2024.pdf

Ground based on-ice measurements, airborne survey measurements, and 
satellite measurements are verified against each other, and show how 
fast this 79NG glacier is thinning, moving, and melting.

This glacier is quickly withering away due to the onslaught of extremely 
high air temperatures melting the surface of the glacier creating 
numerous glacial lakes on the surface, which are drilling through the 
ice draining the water to the bedrock below and into the ocean.

Just as significant for the ice melt, the warming oceans below are 
greatly accelerating the basal ice melt (ice at the bottom of the 
floating parts of the glacier in contact with ocean water). In fact, 
near the center line longitudinal cross section of the ice, a 500 meter 
high cavity has been melted into the bottom of the glacier, and this 
cavity of upside down crevice has come to within 190 meter of the 
glacier surface.

When it penetrates through the surface, the glacier will likely cleave 
into two parts, and what often happens is the whole thing shatters into 
a multitude of smaller pieces that quickly cascade out into the ocean 
and quickly melt out.

Overall, the thickness of the glacier has decreased by 160 meters, but 
that is outside of the 500 meter cavity region, but it seems to me that 
the ice over the cavity region is by far the weakest spot or Achilles 
Heel of the whole thing.

Not good…

What do with expect, with fossil fuel production at record highs, and at 
record acceleration rates?
We need to expect chaos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr6pXUrJZH8



/[ Atlantic currents carry warm water to the North ]/
*Study documents slowing of Atlantic currents*
by Cazzy Medley, University of Maryland
MARCH 25, 2024
While scientists have observed oceans heating up for decades and 
theorized that their rising temperatures weaken global currents, a new 
study led by a University of Maryland researcher documents for the first 
time a significant slowing of a crucial ocean current system that plays 
a role in regulating Earth's climate.
Published recently in Frontiers in Marine Science, the paper led by 
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) scientist Alexey 
Mishonov examined decades of data on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning 
Circulation (AMOC) found in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
Administration's (NOAA) World Ocean Atlas.

Mishonov and co-authors Dan Seidov and James Reagan from NOAA discovered 
that the current system's flow remained stable and consistent from 1955 
to 1994. However, in the mid-1990s, AMOC strength began to decline and 
the current began to move slower, which the scientists attribute to the 
continued warming of the ocean's surface and the accompanying changes in 
the salinity of its upper layers.

AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream, carries warm water toward higher 
latitudes, releasing heat into the atmosphere and bringing cold waters 
to the tropics. This forms a continuous loop that redistributes heat 
across the ocean.

"If AMOC slows down, the heat exchange will be reduced, which in turn 
will affect the climate, causing hot areas to get hotter and cold areas 
to get colder," said Mishonov. This could lead to global climate 
changes, sea level rise, impact on marine ecosystems and other climate 
feedbacks.
A similar, but highly exaggerated and fictionalized dynamic powered the 
plot of the 2004 disaster blockbuster "The Day After Tomorrow," in which 
a flow of fresh water from melting glaciers led to the sudden collapse 
of North Atlantic Ocean currents, leading to outlandish effects like 
global superstorms and the sudden appearance of glaciers across much of 
the northern hemisphere.

"Of course, most climate scientists do not share these Hollywood 
fantasies, and no one inside scientific communities believes that 
anything remotely similar can happen," Mishonov said of the film. 
"However, most do believe that substantial slowing of AMOC might result 
in significant climate change that cannot be foreseen and predicted. 
Therefore, increased interest in AMOC functionality is fully warranted."

Mishonov and co-authors believe that the key to understanding the ocean 
climate trajectory is identifying how the North Atlantic climate 
responds to ongoing surface warming over decadal timespans.

The researchers used World Ocean Atlas data covering 1955–2017 as well 
as climate reanalysis data on decadal wind stress and sea surface height 
fields from UMD's Simple Ocean Data Assimilation project to determine 
fingerprints of the North Atlantic's circulation and AMOC's dynamics.

The authors found that although the entire North Atlantic is 
systematically warming, the climate trajectories in its different 
subregions reveal radically different characteristics of regional 
decadal variability, reflecting diverse climate patterns. For example, 
while the temperature has gradually increased from 1955 to 2017, it 
dropped in the more northern Atlantic from 1955 to 1994, then rose from 
1995 to 2017. Similar patterns are also visible in salinity and density.

This variation in climate characteristics indicates that the current 
situation may not predict what the future may hold, including whether 
AMOC's slowdown will persist, accelerate or diminish in the next decade. 
However, the paper suggests that scenarios involving the slowdown or 
collapse of AMOC cannot be dismissed. Next, the authors plan to explore 
other regions of the global ocean to look for similar patterns in 
long-term temperature and salinity variability.
  DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-documents-atlantic-currents.html



/[ Ice melts in a warming World ]/
*Study reports enormous ice loss from Greenland glacier*
by Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
MARCH 22, 2024
Ground-based measuring devices and aircraft radar operated in the far 
northeast of Greenland show how much ice the 79° N-Glacier is losing. 
According to measurements conducted by the Alfred Wegener Institute, the 
thickness of the glacier has decreased by more than 160 meters since 
1998. Warm ocean water flowing under the glacier tongue is melting the 
ice from below.
High air temperatures cause lakes to form on the surface, whose water 
flows through huge channels in the ice into the ocean. One channel 
reached a height of 500 meters, while the ice above was only 190 meters 
thick, as a research team has now reported in The Cryosphere.
A rustic camp in northeast Greenland was one of the bases for deploying 
autonomous measuring devices with modern radar technology by helicopter 
in a part of the 79° N-Glacier that is difficult to access. Measurement 
flights with the polar aircraft of the Alfred Wegener Institute, 
Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), and satellite data 
were also incorporated into a scientific study that has now been published.

This study examines how global warming affects the stability of a 
floating ice tongue. This is of great importance for the remaining ice 
shelves in Greenland as well as those in Antarctica, as instability of 
the ice shelf usually results in an acceleration of the ice flow, which 
would lead to a greater sea level rise.

"Since 2016, we have been using autonomous instruments to carry out 
radar measurements on the 79° N-Glacier, from which we can determine 
melt and thinning rates," says AWI glaciologist Dr. Ole Zeising, the 
first author of the publication. "In addition, we used aircraft radar 
data from 1998, 2018, and 2021, showing changes in ice thickness. We 
were able to measure that the 79° N-Glacier has changed significantly in 
recent decades under the influence of global warming."
The study shows how the combination of a warm ocean inflow and a warming 
atmosphere affects the floating ice tongue of the 79° N-Glacier in 
northeast Greenland. Only recently, an AWI oceanography team published a 
modeling study on this subject. The unique data set of observations now 
presented shows that extremely high melt rates occur over a large area 
near the transition to the ice sheet.

In addition, large channels form on the underside of the ice from the 
land side, probably because the water from huge lakes drains through the 
glacier ice. Both processes have led to a strong thinning of the glacier 
in recent decades.

Due to extreme melt rates, the ice of the floating glacier tongue has 
become 32 % thinner since 1998, especially from the grounding line where 
the ice comes into contact with the ocean. In addition, a 500-meter-high 
channel has formed on the underside of the ice, which spreads towards 
the inland.

The researchers attribute these changes to warm ocean currents in the 
cavity below the floating tongue and to the runoff of surface meltwater 
as a result of atmospheric warming. A surprising finding was that melt 
rates have decreased since 2018. A possible cause for this is a colder 
ocean inflow.

"The fact that this system reacts on such short time scales is 
astonishing for systems that are actually inert, such as glaciers," says 
Prof Dr. Angelika Humbert, who is also involved in the study.

"We expect that this floating glacier tongue will break apart over the 
next few years to decades," explains the AWI glaciologist. "We have 
begun to study this process in detail to gain maximum insight into the 
course of the process. Although there have been several such 
disintegrations of ice shelves, we have only been able to collect data 
subsequently. As a scientific community, we are now in a better position 
by having built up a really good database before the collapse."

More information: Ole Zeising et al, Extreme melting at Greenland's 
largest floating ice tongue, The Cryosphere (2024). DOI: 
10.5194/tc-18-1333-2024
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-enormous-ice-loss-greenland-glacier.html



/[ From the journal The Cryosphere ]/
*Extreme melting at Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue*
Ole Zeising, Niklas Neckel, Nils Dörr, Veit Helm, Daniel Steinhage, 
Ralph Timmermann, and
Angelika Humbert
Received: 16 June 2023 – Discussion started: 28 July 2023
Revised: 9 December 2023 – Accepted: 12 January 2024 – Published: 22 
March 2024

    *Abstract.* The 79° North Glacier (Nioghalvfjerdsbrae,
    79NG) is one of three remaining glaciers with a floating
    tongue in Greenland. Although the glacier has been considered
    exceptionally stable in the past, earlier studies have
    shown that the ice tongue has thinned in recent decades. By
    conducting high-resolution ground-based and airborne radar
    measurements in conjunction with satellite remote-sensing
    observations, we find significant changes in the geometry of
    79NG. In the vicinity of the grounding line, a 500 m high
    subglacial channel has grown since ∼ 2010 and has caused
    surface lowering of up to 7.6 m a−1.
    Our results show extreme basal melt rates exceeding 150 m a−1 over a
    period
    of 17 d within a distance of 5 km from the grounding line,
    where the ice has thinned by 32 % since 1998. We find a
    heterogeneous distribution of melt rates, likely due to variability
    in water column thickness and channelization of the
    ice base. Time series of melt rates show a decrease in basal
    melting since 2018, indicating an inflow of colder water into
    the cavity below 79NG. We discuss the processes that have
    led to the changes in geometry and conclude that the inflow
    of warm ocean currents has led to the extensive thinning of
    79NG’s floating ice tongue near the grounding line over the
    last 2 decades. In contrast, we hypothesize that the growth of
    the channel results from increased subglacial discharge due
    to a considerably enlarged area of summer surface melt due
    to the warming of the atmosphere.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/1333/2024/tc-18-1333-2024.pdf



/[ //Sabine has optimism bias - //It may be easier to repeal the Laws of 
Thermodynamics (joke) than to stop fossil fuel combustion  ]/
*Should I be terrified of climate change? Should you be terrified?*
Sabine Hossenfelder
Mar 26, 2024  #sciencenews #science #climate
I have now come across a bunch of articles in which scientists are more 
or less explicitly advocating that we scare people into action on 
climate change. To me this is a step from information to manipulation. 
Let’s have a look.
paper https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2312093121
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbSEC6VN4Rs



/[ When it's time to resettle elsewhere -  (ASAP) American Society of 
Adaptation Professionals  ]/
*Connecting and Supporting the People Who Build Climate Resilience*
What We Do
The American Society of Adaptation Professionals (ASAP) is the 
professional home for people who are preparing for climate impacts in 
their jobs, in their communities, and in their fields of practice. Find 
out how we're connecting and supporting the people who build climate 
resilience.
https://adaptationprofessionals.org


/[ What is Europe doing? ]/
*Too far or not far enough? These are Europe’s most and least popular 
climate policies*
By Rosie Frost
25/03/2024
Fears of a ‘green backlash’ at the European elections are unfounded, 
according to a new survey.

Climate change is set to be one of the topics that dominate European 
election campaigns this summer.

But when voters hit the ballot box this June, some believe fatigue will 
see them turn towards politicians who roll back climate policies, scale 
down climate ambitions or ignore environmental action entirely.

A new report from researchers at Oxford University, Humboldt University 
Berlin, and Hertie School Berlin set out to uncover whether this is 
really true.

Researchers surveyed 15,000 people across Germany, France and Poland on 
how they felt about current climate policies. Voters were quizzed on 
whether they think measures go too far or not far enough. They were also 
asked about 40 specific policies to find out which were the most and 
least popular.

The report’s authors say their results refute theories of a ‘broad green 
backlash’ ahead of this year’s European Parliament election.
*
Concrete actions and climate concerns*
Debate over environmental policy in the last few months has led to 
speculation that people across Europe are tired of green policies. But 
researchers found that this wasn’t the case across the three countries 
they surveyed, seeing no widespread backlash against climate policy.

Most still wanted more ambitious climate policy and would support 
concrete measures to bring emissions down. Asked whether existing 
climate policies have already gone too far or not far enough, a majority 
- 57 per cent in France, 53 per cent in Germany and 51 per cent in 
Poland - were in favour of further action.
- -
The majority support for more ambitious climate policy was mirrored by 
people’s concern over the impact of climate change on their lives. 
Around 60 per cent of people in Poland and Germany said they are already 
negatively impacted by climate change or expect to be in the next five 
to 10 years.

The impact of recent drought and drinking water shortages push that 
number up to 80 per cent in France.

There is a sizable minority that is against more ambitious climate 
action in all three countries. Around 30 per cent in Germany and Poland 
and slightly less at 23 per cent in France.

However, researchers say this group is “relatively stable over time”. 
The number of people in opposition doesn’t seem to have changed from 
similar surveys in 2021 and 2022 despite the narrative of growing 
backlash against climate policies ahead of the election.

And there is little evidence that this opposition is based in material 
concerns like employment, they add.

*Which climate policies are the most and least popular?*
While a majority of people still abstractly support ambitious action, 
their opinions vary when it comes to concrete climate policies.

Across all three countries, banning cars with internal combustion 
engines ranked at the bottom of the list for voters. Regulatory 
restrictions on gas and oil heating were particularly disliked in 
Germany and Poland.

Echoing earlier surveys, voters were also sceptical about carbon 
pricing, with the idea of putting a price tag on emissions especially 
unpopular for housing and transport.
- -
The most popular policies were investments in green infrastructure - 
like the electricity grid or public transport. Voters also generally 
support strategies like subsidies to help energy-intensive industries 
decarbonise or produce clean energy tech like wind turbines and solar 
panels.

The survey also found backing for bans on private jets and - except for 
in Poland - restrictions on short-haul flights.

Overall, policies and regulations that didn’t directly impact people’s 
everyday lives tended to be popular. These measures put the pressure to 
reduce emissions on public authorities and big companies rather than on 
consumers.
*
Will rolling back green policies win voters?*
While the current narrative might make rolling back unpopular climate 
policies seem like an easy win, the report’s authors argue that the 
reality is more complicated than that.

“Taking common armchair diagnoses about a green backlash at face value 
would be a mistake,” they write, as most voters still support more 
ambitious climate policy.

“A European election campaign in which parties try to outbid each other 
over who scales down their climate ambitions the most would simply 
misdiagnose where voters stand on the issue.”

Instead, the authors say that focusing on stronger green investment and 
industrial policies would be popular. For unpopular policies that need 
to be implemented to bring emissions down, “compensation is key”.

Across countries and party lines, voters are less opposed to climate 
action if governments also help those hit hardest by the measures.

“Parties should not waste the coming months outbidding each other over 
how to cater to imagined climate fatigue but compete over concrete 
recipes to green the economy,” they conclude.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/03/25/too-far-or-not-far-enough-these-are-europes-most-and-least-popular-climate-policies



/[The news archive - misinformation debates ]/
/*March 27, 2007 */
March 27, 2007: In a post ... about a recent confrontation with 
Competitive Enterprise Institute honcho Myron Ebell, blogger Mike Stark 
observes:

"Upon reflection, I really think there are a couple of lessons for 
progressives to be found in this five minute exchange.

"First of all, when arguing with somebody that either has no credibility 
or is not arguing a credible position, don't donate the credibility they 
need to be seen as your equal."

"You see, by calling his credibility into question immediately - and not 
letting him up for air - well, I've got no proof, but I really think 
that everyone in the room knew that Mr. Ebell had been bettered. When we 
ask policy or science questions of these charlatans, we give the 
impression that we care what they think. We don't. We know they are rank 
liars, we're just wondering if they'll be able to spin a sufficient 
answer. But these guys get millions of dollars a year from the largest 
corporate titans precisely because they have the skill to ink up the 
issue. Why let them show off?

"Secondly, don't go out of your way to be nice or polite. Hell, I won't 
afford these profit-gandists any respect on my blog, why the hell should 
I do it face to face? A large part of their professional career derives 
from their ability to mock me and the things I believe in. The 
Competitive Enterprise Institute once liked global warming to 'being 
invaded by space aliens' for example. By addressing these people with 
the indignant scorn they deserve, you project the moral superiority of 
your position. To many times it seems that Democratic and progressive 
pundits are more interested in being our opponents' friends than we are 
in vigorously arguing the issues. In this media environment - when equal 
time is given to global warming deniers... well, we just can't afford 
the small talk.

"In the end, these guys are not good people. This isn't a case of 
principled people disagreeing. At this point in the global warming 
debate, the only principled disagreements to be had revolve around what 
we should be doing to address the crisis. The Myron Ebells of the world 
- the die-hard denialists... well, we need to move them off the stage by 
marginalizing them at every opportunity."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-stark/global-warming-phooey_b_44407.html


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