[TheClimate.Vote] July 6, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News

[Richard Pauli]

/July 6, 2017/

*Hopes of mild climate change dashed by new research 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/05/hopes-of-mild-climate-change-dashed-by-new-research>*
Planet could heat up far more than hoped as new work shows temperature 
rises measured over recent decades don't fully reflect global warming 
already in the pipeline
Hopes that the world's huge carbon emissions might not drive 
temperatures up to dangerous levels have been dashed by new research.
The work shows that temperature rises measured over recent decades do 
not fully reflect the global warming already in the pipeline and that 
the ultimate heating of the planet could be even worse than feared.
How much global temperatures rise for a certain level of carbon 
emissions is called climate sensitivity and is seen as the single most 
important measure of climate change. Computer models have long indicated 
a high level of sensitivity, up to 4.5C for a doubling of CO2 in the 
atmosphere...
"There was this wave of optimism."
The new research, published in the journal Science Advances, has ended 
that. "The worrisome part is that all the models show there is an 
amplification of the amount of warming in the future," he said. The 
situation might be even worse, as Proistosescu's work shows climate 
sensitivity could be as high as 6C.
Prof Bill Collins, at the University of Reading, UK, and not part of the 
new research, said: "Some have suggested that we might be lucky and 
avoid dangerous climate change without taking determined action if the 
climate is not very sensitive to CO2 emissions. This work provides new 
evidence that that chance is remote." He said greater long term warming 
had implications for melting of the world's ice sheets and the rise of 
sea levels that already threatens many coastal cities.
The new research shows the 4.5C upper limit for climate sensitivity is 
real and means projections for global temperature rises cannot be 
reduced. The global temperature is likely to be 2.6C to 4.8C higher by 
the end of the century if emissions are not cut, according to the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or 0.3C to 1.7C if sharp 
emissions cuts begin in the next few years.
Reconciling all the estimates of climate sensitivity has also shown that 
climate models are not flawed.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/05/hopes-of-mild-climate-change-dashed-by-new-research
-also:
Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of 
climate sensitivity <http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821>
Abstract
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 
widened the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) range from 2° to 4.5°C 
to an updated range of 1.5° to 4.5°C in order to account for the lack of 
consensus between estimates based on models and historical observations. 
The historical ECS estimates range from 1.5° to 3°C and are derived 
assuming a linear radiative response to warming. A Bayesian methodology 
applied to 24 models, however, documents curvature in the radiative 
response to warming from an evolving contribution of interannual to 
centennial modes of radiative response. Centennial modes display 
stronger amplifying feedbacks and ultimately contribute 28 to 68% (90% 
credible interval) of equilibrium warming, yet they comprise only 1 to 
7% of current warming. Accounting for these unresolved centennial 
contributions brings historical records into agreement with 
model-derived ECS estimates.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821


*Trump May Find Some Allies on Climate Change at G-20 Meeting* 
<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/climate/g20-climate-change-paris-accord-trump-merkel-germany.html?_r=0>
Western European efforts to isolate President Trump for rejecting the 
Paris climate change agreement appear to be faltering as leaders gather 
for a summit meeting in Hamburg, Germany, at the end of the week.
The gulf between Mr. Trump's worldview and that of most European leaders 
on topics from trade to immigration will be on display in the coming 
days. But nowhere is the difference as stark as it is on climate change, 
which Mr. Trump has mocked as a hoax....
In recent days, however, those aiming to isolate the United States on 
climate issues have softened their language to say they hope an 
"overwhelming majority" embrace the Paris agreement. Saudi Arabia has 
indicated it is unlikely to climb on board and Russia, Turkey and 
Indonesia are sending mixed signals about how forcefully they will 
declare their support for the Paris deal.
Saudi Arabia is a wild card. Fresh off a $500 million arms deal with the 
United States that narrowly escaped Senate opposition, the Saudis are 
eager to keep Mr. Trump's support for the kingdom's crackdown against 
Qatar. Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest per capita emitters of 
planet-warming emissions, has always been a reluctant participant in 
climate discussions.
Conservatives in the United States say Europeans should know by now that 
goading Mr. Trump is likely to fail.
"It's like trying to poke a bear," said Nicolas Loris, a research fellow 
in energy and environmental policy at the Heritage Foundation. 
"President Trump will stick to his convictions. I don't think any type 
of pressure from Merkel or any of the other 19 countries is going to 
change that.".
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/climate/g20-climate-change-paris-accord-trump-merkel-germany.html?_r=0


*See the Effects of Climate Change Across Earth (Video) 
<https://www.space.com/37169-climate-change-effects-earth.html>*
A new video from the European Space Agency explains how changes in 
climate are causing sea levels to rise around the world.
There are three main causes for this change in global sea level, 
according to the video: thermal expansion of oceans, the melting of ice 
sheets and glaciers, and changes in land-water storage. The agency uses 
satellite data to measure how much each of these individual components 
attributes to the sea level increase.
Meltwater from glaciers accounts for about a 6.6 millimeter (0.26 
inches) sea level rise every decade, the video says, which accounts for 
20 percent of the total change between 2003 and 2013. Greenland's ice 
sheet accounts for 8.3 millimeters (0.33 inches), or about 25 percent of 
the total, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes 3.6 millimeters 
(0.14 inches) or 11 percent of the decade total. Changes in land-water 
storage (such as lakes) contribute 3.3 millimeters (0.13 inches) or 10 
percent, and ocean thermal expansion adds 9.9 millimeters (0.39 inches) 
or 30 percent.
https://www.space.com/37169-climate-change-effects-earth.html


*Appeals Court Rules Against EPA in Methane Gas Regulations 
<https://www.voanews.com/a/appeals-court-rules-against-epa-in-methane-gas-regulations/3927244.html>*
A U.S. federal appeals court ruled Monday that Environmental Protection 
Agency chief Scott Pruitt lacks the authority to suspend rules that oil 
and gas companies monitor and fix methane gas leaks.
Two of the three judges on the panel wrote that an order delaying such a 
rule is the same thing as revoking it.
Pruitt said in April he wanted to put its enforcement on hold for 90 
days, later saying he wanted to extend it for two years.
He argued that oil and gas companies are already monitoring methane 
leaks and that the federal regulations would make some wells unprofitable.
No comment from EPA
Several environmental groups sued to stop Pruitt.
"This ruling … slams the brakes on the Trump administration's brazen 
efforts to put the interests of corporate polluters ahead of protecting 
the public and the environment," National Resources Defense Council 
official David Doniger said. This was one of the groups that sued to 
stop the EPA.
An EPA spokeswoman said the agency is studying the court decision and 
had no other comment.
Methane emanating from natural gas production is a major contributor to 
global warming.
A first for Trump
This is the first court decision to go against Trump administration 
efforts to overturn or block rules and executive orders it believes are 
unfair to the fossil fuel industry.
Pruitt has joined the White House in arguing that tough regulations hurt 
industry and jobs as the U.S. strives to become more energy independent 
— an effort it says must include oil, gas and coal production, along 
with renewable resources.
Environmentalists say overturning such rules gives industry a blank 
check to ignore laws protecting the air and streams from pollution.
https://www.voanews.com/a/appeals-court-rules-against-epa-in-methane-gas-regulations/3927244.html


*Climate change may turn Africa's arid Sahel green: researchers 
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-africa-sahel-idUSKBN19Q2WK>*
LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - One of Africa's driest regions - 
the Sahel - could turn greener if the planet warms more than 2 degrees 
Celsius and triggers more frequent heavy rainfall, scientists said on 
Wednesday.
The Sahel stretches coast to coast from Mauritania and Mali in the west 
to Sudan and Eritrea in the east, and skirts the southern edge of the 
Sahara desert. It is home to more than 100 million people...
The study was published on Wednesday in Earth System Dynamics, a journal 
of the European Geosciences Union.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-africa-sahel-idUSKBN19Q2WK


*Larsen C iceberg accelerates ahead of calving 
<http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/berg-acceleration/>*
by Martin O'Leary, Adrian Luckman and Project MIDAS
In another sign that the iceberg calving is imminent, the 
soon-to-be-iceberg part of Larsen C Ice Shelf has tripled in speed to 
more than ten meters per day between 24th and 27th June 2017. The 
iceberg remains attached to the ice shelf, but its outer end is moving 
at the highest speed ever recorded on this ice shelf. We still can't 
tell when calving will occur - it could be hours, days or weeks - but 
this is a notable departure from previous observations.
News of the Larsen C Iceberg calving
http://www.projectmidas.org/blog/berg-acceleration/
https://twitter.com/AntarcticReport
https://twitter.com/MIDASOnIce?lang=en
https://twitter.com/AntarcticReport/status/882565756113698820


*Media Matters has a new study out today about coverage of the Southwest 
heat wave in relation to climate change. 
<https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/07/05/During-record-heat-wave-major-TV-stations-in-Phoenix-and-Las-Vegas-completely-ignored-the-/217141>*
*During record heat wave, major TV stations in Phoenix and Las Vegas 
completely ignored the impact of climate change*
The stations did not mention a new study connecting global warming to 
extreme heat, but found time to discuss climate change's impact on coffee
Phoenix and Las Vegas affiliates ignored alarming study about climate 
change's impact on extreme heat, despite experiencing a record heat wave
For more than a week in late June, much of the Southwest was hit by a 
brutal heat wave. In Phoenix, temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees above 
average and new temperature records were set for three days in a row 
from June 19 to 21, reaching as high as 119 degrees. Dozens of flights 
had to be canceled after higher temperatures made it harder for certain 
types of small planes to take off. Las Vegas saw similar record-breaking 
daily temperatures and tied its all-time high temperature record of 117 
degrees on June 20.
The heat wave overlapped with the publication of an alarming new study 
on June 19 in the journal Nature Climate Change that found that, because 
of climate change, almost a third of the world's population faces deadly 
heat waves at least 20 days a year -- and that more than twice that 
percentage could experience the same by 2100. In his article on the 
study's findings, Seth Borenstein of The Associated Press connected the 
study to the heat wave in the Southwest:
*Phoenix and Las Vegas affiliate stations also failed to mention global 
warming's impact on heat waves generally -- and in one instance 
downplayed the connection *
The heat wave afflicting the Southwest was the sort of previously rare 
extreme phenomenon that global warming is making more common...
Yet over the eight-day time period Media Matters examined, none of the 
network affiliates based in Phoenix or Las Vegas explained that climate 
change exacerbates heat waves.
We also found that the local affiliates ignored a new study that found 
one-third of the global population already faces deadly heat waves for 
at least 20 days a year due to climate change, yet they aired segments 
focused on on a study about how climate change could affect the flavor 
of coffee (even though the studies were published on the same day).
https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/07/05/During-record-heat-wave-major-TV-stations-in-Phoenix-and-Las-Vegas-completely-ignored-the-/217141 
<https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/07/05/During-record-heat-wave-major-TV-stations-in-Phoenix-and-Las-Vegas-completely-ignored-the-/217141>
https://twitter.com/kkMMFA/status/882627478031880192 
<https://twitter.com/kkMMFA/status/882627478031880192>


*A Crack in an Antarctic Ice Shelf 
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/07/science/earth/antarctic-crack.html?_r=1>*
Grew 17 Miles in the Last Two Months
By JUGAL K. PATEL    FEB. 7, 2017
A rapidly advancing crack in Antarctica's fourth-largest ice shelf has 
scientists concerned that it is getting close to a full break. The rift 
has accelerated this year in an area already vulnerable to warming 
temperatures. Since December, the crack has grown by the length of about 
five football fields each day.
If the ice shelf breaks at the crack, Larsen C will be at its smallest 
size ever recorded...
That would also leave the ice front much closer to the ice shelf's 
compressive arch, a line that scientists say is critical for structural 
support. If the front retreats past that line, scientists say, the 
northernmost part of the shelf could collapse within months. It could 
also significantly change the landscape of the Antarctic peninsula.
"At that point in time, the glaciers will react," said Eric J. Rignot, a 
glaciologist, professor at University of California Irvine and a senior 
scientist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "If the ice shelf 
breaks apart, it will remove a buttressing force on the glaciers that 
flow into it. The glaciers will feel less resistance to flow, 
effectively removing a cork in front of them."
According to Dr. Rignot, the collapse of Larsen C would add only a tiny 
amount of water to the global sea level. Of greater concern to 
scientists is how the collapse of ice shelves can affect the glaciers 
that flow behind them, because the melting of those glaciers can cause 
much higher levels of ocean rise. Scientists see the impending Larsen C 
collapse as a warning that much larger amounts of ice in West Antarctica 
could be vulnerable.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/07/science/earth/antarctic-crack.html?_r=1


<http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html>*This 
Day in Climate History July 6, 2010 
<http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html>  
-  from D.R. Tucker*
July 6, 2010: Washington Post writer Ezra Klein observes:
"There's a range of likely outcomes from a tax on carbon, and we can 
handle most of them. There's also a range of outcomes from radical 
changes in the planet's climate, and we've really no idea which we can 
handle, and which we can't. We don't even really know what that range 
looks like. And although a tax can be undone or reformed, there's no 
guarantee that we can reverse hundreds of years of rapid greenhouse gas 
buildup in the atmosphere. If you want proof, look at our inability to 
deal with an underwater oil spill, and consider how much more experience 
we have repairing oil rigs than reversing concentrations of gases in the 
atmosphere.
"One of the oddities of the global warming debate, in fact, is that the 
side that's usually skeptical of government intervention is potentially 
setting up a future in which the government is intervening on a 
planetary scale. I don't think of myself as particularly skeptical of 
the feds, but I'm a lot more comfortable with their ability to levy a 
tax than their capacity to reform the atmosphere. That's why, when faced 
with the choice between being risk averse about a tax or about the 
planet, I tend to choose the planet."
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html
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