[TheClimate.Vote] September 8, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Sep 8 11:37:05 EDT 2017
/September 8, 2017/
*Here's why Irma is a monster hurricane, in one GIF.
<http://grist.org/briefly/heres-why-irma-is-a-monster-hurricane-in-one-gif/>*The
last Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States was
Andrew, which lashed South Florida with wind gusts of up to 177 miles
per hour in 1992. It caused immense devastation and forever changed
Florida's approach to hurricanes.
Twenty-five years later, we have Hurricane Irma - a storm that could be
even worse.
[
http://grist.org/briefly/heres-why-irma-is-a-monster-hurricane-in-one-gif/ ]
The above GIF, assembled from GOES satellite databy Joel Nihlean
<https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058>, combines
images of the two hurricanes to compare them side-by-side to scale. Not
only is Irma more powerful, it's also much larger: One recent estimate
<https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905830202034593793> showed that
Irma packs more than five times Andrew's destructive potential. Its
hurricane-force winds cover an arearoughly the size of Massachusetts
<https://twitter.com/CSlocumWX/status/905817349504331776>.
http://grist.org/briefly/heres-why-irma-is-a-monster-hurricane-in-one-gif/
*Hurricane scientists have never seen an image like this before
<https://qz.com/1072166/irma-jose-and-katia-three-hurricanes-in-one-satellite-image/>*
[
https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/screen-shot-2017-09-07-at-1.jpg?quality=80&strip=all&w=1600
]
For the first time in modern history, three hurricanes in the Atlantic
are lined up in the most dangerous of ways, according to Eric Blake, a
hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued advisories on Hurricane
Irma (currently located north of the Dominican Republic), Hurricane Jose
(700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles), and Hurricane Katia (over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico).
The Atlantic experienced three simultaneous hurricanes in 2010, with
Igor, Julia, and Karl all swirling in the basin at the same time. Julia
never threatened land, so the NHC didn't issue a warning for North
America. This is the first time that three hurricanes have the potential
to make landfall at the same time.
https://qz.com/1072166/irma-jose-and-katia-three-hurricanes-in-one-satellite-image/
( /save this link - as it also applies to Florida Post-Irma)/
*Don't ask. Just tell. How to help Houston Post-Harvey.
<http://authorlegacyresource.com/dont-ask-just-tell-help-houston-post-harvey/>*
You Can Do More
This checklist is organized for two groups. Pick a checklist and tell
us what you will do to help.
- Local to the Houston Region Checklist...
<http://authorlegacyresource.com/dont-ask-just-tell-help-houston-post-harvey/>
- Outside the Houston Region Checklist
<http://authorlegacyresource.com/dont-ask-just-tell-help-houston-post-harvey/>
...go to one of these websites to make a donation. Every dollar
counts. The people of Houston thank you for your support.
Hurricane Harvey Relief Fund <http://ghcf.org/hurricane-relief/>
Houston Food Bank <http://www.houstonfoodbank.org/>
Houston Humane Society <http://www.houstonhumane.org/>
United Way of Greater Houston <https://www.unitedwayhouston.org/flood>
Texas Diaper Bank <http://www.texasdiaperbank.org/>
G.B.T.Q. Disaster Relief Fund
<https://my.reason2race.com/DNicol/HurricaneHarveyLGBTQDisasterReliefFund2017>
Red Cross
<https://www.redcross.org/donate/hurricane-harvey?scode=RSG00000E017&utm_campaign=Harvey&gclid=CjwKCAjwxJnNBRAMEiwA8X_-Qa_lInKQ9q1NX-dmg1t71joS3xpayjuT_aNQlKBmT3kjcDdHso5SXRoCdesQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds&dclid=CNKg7KnS_9UCFV46Twod1HgGhQ>
http://authorlegacyresource.com/dont-ask-just-tell-help-houston-post-harvey/
(thanks S.S.)
*Potent Mix of Record Heat and Dryness Fuels Wildfires Across the West
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05092017/west-wildfires-california-canada-forests-record-heat-climate-change>*
"These unprecedented extreme events are exactly the types of events that
are more likely due to the global warming that's already occurred."
BY GEORGINA GUSTIN
While drought <http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/3258> and
high heat aren't the only factors making wildfires more intense and
frequent
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11072017/wildfire-forest-fire-climate-change-california>-researchers
also blame encroaching development into wild areas and certain wildfire
management practices-they are key drivers
<https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr870/pnw_gtr870.pdf>.
Nine of the 10 worst fire seasons in the past 50 years have all happened
since 2000, and 2015 was the worst fire season in U.S. history,
surpassing 10 million acres for the first timeon record
<https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html>. So far
this year, wildfires in the U.S. have burned 7.8 million acres, but the
fire season is far from over. (In 2015,8.4 million acres
<https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm>had burned by early September.)
The average fire season is 78 days longer than it was in the 1970s-now
nearly seven months-beginning and extending beyond the typical heat of
summer. By April of this year,wildfires had scorched
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11072017/wildfire-forest-fire-climate-change-california>more
than 2 million acres in the U.S.-nearly the average consumed in entire
fire seasons during the 1980s.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05092017/west-wildfires-california-canada-forests-record-heat-climate-change
.*
Has Climate Change Intensified 2017's Western Wildfires?
<https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/09/why-is-2017-so-bad-for-wildfires-climate-change/539130/>*
This wasn't supposed to be a bad year for Western wildfires.
"This will become an important year for [anecdotes about] the importance
of temperature. Despite the fact that these forests were really soaked
down this winter and spring, these heat waves have dried things out
enough to promote really large fires," says Park Williams, a research
scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University.
In other words, the weeks of heat that baked the West in July and August
were enough to wipe away some of the fire-dampening effect of the winter
storms.
"The last 60 to 90 days have been exceptionally warm and dry, the
perfect recipe for drying out fuels (the one ingredient besides
ignitions you need for fire in these systems)," said John Abatzoglou, a
professor of geography at the University of Idaho, in an email. "I was
running a few numbers this morning, and the last 60 days have been
record warm from Spokane, Washington, to Medford, Oregon; both Seattle
and Missoula earlier this summer set records for the longest number of
days without measurable rain."
The same team of researchers also found that the area of annual burned
forest in the Pacific Northwest has increased by nearly 5000 percent
since the early 1970s.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/09/why-is-2017-so-bad-for-wildfires-climate-change/539130/
*Climate change could wipe out a third of parasite species, study finds
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/06/climate-change-could-wipe-out-a-third-of-parasite-species-study-finds>*
Parasites such as lice and fleas are crucial to ecosystems, scientists
say, and extinctions could lead to unpredictable invasions
Climate change could wipe out a third of all parasite species on Earth,
according to the most comprehensive analysis to date.
Tapeworms, roundworms, ticks, lice and fleas are feared for the diseases
they cause or carry, but scientists warn that they also play a vital
role in ecosystems. Major extinctions among parasites could lead to
unpredictable invasions of surviving parasites into new areas, affecting
wildlife and humans and making a "significant contribution" to the sixth
mass extinction already under way on Earth.
The new research, published in Science Advances, used the collection of
20m parasites held at the Smithsonian Institution's Museum of National
History in the US to map the global distribution of 457 parasites. The
scientists then applied a range of climate models and future scenarios
and found that the average level of extinctions as habitats become
unsuitable for parasites was 10% by 2070, but extinctions rose to a
third if the loss of host species was also included.
"It is a staggering number," said Colin Carlson at the University of
California, Berkeley, who led the new work. "Parasites seem like one of
the most threatened groups on Earth." The severity of the impact varied
with the different climate scenarios. For example, a 20% loss of
parasite native ranges in scenarios where carbon emissions are rapidly
cut in the future rises to 37% if emissions continue unchecked.
"It is difficult to summarise the net consequence, as we know so little
about most parasites," Carlson said. "Climate change will make some
parasites extinct and make some do better. But we would argue the
overall phenomenon is dangerous, because extinctions and invasions go
hand in hand."
Anna Phillips, the curator of the Smithsonian's parasite collection,
said: "As long as there are free-living organisms, there will be
parasites. But the picture of parasite biodiversity in 2070 or beyond
has the potential to look very different than it does today based on
these results."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/06/climate-change-could-wipe-out-a-third-of-parasite-species-study-finds
*
**Hurricane Harvey, Climate Denial, Fake News and ExxonMobil
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/09/05/hurricane-harvey-climate-denial-fake-news-and-exxonmobil>*
Tuesday, September 5, 2017 - 12:09
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/09/05/hurricane-harvey-climate-denial-fake-news-and-exxonmobil
*Now we have a moral duty to talk about climate change
<http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/opinions/climate-change-harvey-lynas-opinion/index.html>*
By Mark Lynas
Watching Trump tour the flooded areas, I was reminded of his Rose Garden
press conference less than three months ago announcing the US withdrawal
from the Paris climate treaty. In that act of wanton international
vandalism, Trump was helping condemn millions more people to the threat
of intensified extreme events in future decades.
It is not politically opportunistic to raise this issue now. Instead we
have a moral duty not to accept the attempted conspiracy of silence
imposed by powerful political and business interests opposed to any
reduction in the use of fossil fuels. We owe this to the people of Texas
as much to those of Bangladesh and India, and Niger -- which was also
struck by disastrous flooding this week.
Climate disasters demonstrate our collective humanity and
interdependence. We have to help each other out -- in the short term by
saving lives and in the longer term by cutting greenhouse gases and
enhancing resilience, especially in developing countries.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/opinions/climate-change-harvey-lynas-opinion/index.html
*Big Oil must pay for climate change. Now we can calculate how much
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/big-oil-must-pay-for-climate-change-here-is-how-to-calculate-how-much>*
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/big-oil-must-pay-for-climate-change-here-is-how-to-calculate-how-much
*(video) The Costs of Not Acting on Climate Change
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEaZaoRCdQ4>*
Thom Hartman talks with Richard Wolff
https://youtu.be/aEaZaoRCdQ4?t=7m45s
*Author predicts climate change will bring grim future to the Arctic
<http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674author_predicts_climate_change_will_bring_grim_future_to_the_arctic/>*
"The North will be the victims of what is happening elsewhere," Gwynne
Dyer says
BETH BROWN
It's not news to northerners that sea ice is getting thinner and melting
more quickly, and that permafrost is more prone to thaw, but Dyer said
this change in overall global temperature is the primary reason these
are taking place.
"All the effects are magnified in the North," he said. "You're getting
more warming and the effects on permafrost and sea ice are bigger than
similar effects on the rest of the planet," Dyer said.
Dyer plans share his knowledge of climate change as it relates to the
North in Iqaluit Sept. 7 during a talk at the Unikkaarvik Visitor Centre.
http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674author_predicts_climate_change_will_bring_grim_future_to_the_arctic/
*
Those 3% of scientific papers that deny climate change? A review found
them all flawed
<https://qz.com/1069298/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-are-all-flawed/>*
Not so, according to a review published in the journal of Theoretical
and Applied Climatology
<https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5>. The
researchers tried to replicate the results of those 3% of papers-a
common way to test scientific studies-and found biased, faulty results.
Katharine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist at Texas Tech University,
worked with a team of researchers to look at the 38 papers published in
peer-reviewed journals in the last decade that denied anthropogenic
global warming.
"Every single one of those analyses had an error-in their assumptions,
methodology, or analysis-that, when corrected, brought their results
into line with the scientific consensus," Hayhoe wrote in a Facebook
post <https://www.facebook.com/katharine.hayhoe/posts/1915202578704620>.
Broadly, there were three main errors in the papers denying climate
change. Many had cherry-picked the results that conveniently supported
their conclusion, while ignoring other context or records. Then there
were some that applied inappropriate "curve-fitting"-in which they would
step farther and farther away from data until the points matched the
curve of their choosing.
And of course, sometimes the papers just ignored physics altogether. "In
many cases, shortcomings are due to insufficient model evaluation,
leading to results that are not universally valid but rather are an
artifact of a particular experimental setup," the authors write.
https://qz.com/1069298/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-are-all-flawed/
*(audio) Global Warming For Real: 'We Could Lose Large Proportion of
Major Food Crops'*
<https://sputniknews.com/business/201709051057112997-global-warming-affects-crop-production/>
Global warming has reduced the harvest of four of the most popular crops
worldwide, according to a new study by a team of researchers. Professor
Senthold Asseng told Sputnik that the yields of wheat, rice and corn
have decreased, and although climate change will continue to affect crop
production, in some countries it may actually increase yields.
Radio Sputnik discussed how climate change is affecting major food crops
around the world and whether it could lead to a food shortage with Dr.
Senthold Asseng, a professor of agricultural and biological engineering
at the University of Florida.
Audio interview:
https://soundcloud.com/radiosputnik/we-can-theoretically-lose-large-proportion-of-major-crops-due-to-global-warming-expert
"Corn in the US would lose some 10 percent for each degree of global
temperature change. In this study we also see some disagreements with
other methods of measuring temperature change," the professor said.
https://sputniknews.com/business/201709051057112997-global-warming-affects-crop-production/
download PDF publication
*WHAT LIES BENEATH THE SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTATEMENT OF CLIMATE RISKS
<https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/whatliesbeneath>*
Human-induced climate change is an existential risk to human
civilisation, yet much climate research understates climate risks and
provides conservative projections. Reports from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change that are crucial to climate policymaking and
informing public narrative are characterised by scientific reticence,
paying limited attention to lower-probability, high-risk events that are
becoming increasingly likely.
This latest Breakthrough report argues for an urgent risk reframing of
climate research and the IPCC reports.
https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/whatliesbeneath
*Billionaire's gift pushes ocean sensors deeper in search of global
warming's hidden heat
<http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/billionaire-s-gift-pushes-ocean-sensors-deeper-search-global-warming-s-hidden-heat>*(Paul
Allen)
<http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/billionaire-s-gift-pushes-ocean-sensors-deeper-search-global-warming-s-hidden-heat>
By Paul VoosenSep. 7, 2017 , 2:00 PM
Every day, thousands of robotic floats bob up and down, tracking
temperatures in the world's oceans, which sop up an estimated 90% of the
heat from global warming. In the course of a decade, the international
Argo array has provided one of the steadiest signatures of the effect of
greenhouse gas emissions. But Argo has its limits. The floats go no
deeper than 2000 meters, warded off by the crushing pressures at greater
depths.
Now, the array is going deeper, where hidden reservoirs of heat may
lurk. On 7 September, billionaire Microsoft Co-Founder Paul Allen
announced a $4 million partnership with the U.S. government that would
be used to purchase 33 Deep Argo floats, capable of descending 6000
meters and reaching 99% of the ocean's volume. The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which pays for U.S. contributions to
Argo, is calling it the first "formal public-private partnership for
sustained ocean observation."
In a time of tight budgets, cautious federal agencies might shy away
from unproven technology such as Deep Argo, says Bob Weller, a physical
oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in
Massachusetts, who is leading a National Academy of Sciences,
Engineering, and Medicine panel investigating the future of ocean
observation. That's where billionaires can step in. "It's exciting to
see philanthropies bring support to innovative new sampling methods," he
says.
Much of this heat stays in the upper 2000 meters of the oceans. But
there are signs it is reaching deeper. Every decade or so since the
1980s, for example, ships have sampled the basin off the coast of Brazil
where the 25 deep floats will be deployed. There, nearly 6000 meters
down, a river of frigid water slowly churns north from Antarctica. Each
time researchers have looked at the basin's bottom waters, they've been
warmer, Johnson says. This deep layer also appears to be growing
thinner. Johnson doesn't know whether the changes are due to the warming
of Antarctic source waters, or a lessening of the flow that brings the
cold water north. (Johnson favors the latter hypothesis.) But sampling
has been so infrequent that it's impossible to say whether these changes
are trends tied to global warming or just part of the current's natural
variability. Deep Argo should make that distinction.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/09/billionaire-s-gift-pushes-ocean-sensors-deeper-search-global-warming-s-hidden-heat
(poetic musical historical interlude) - *A Hard Rains Gonna Fall *- Live
at Town Hall 1963 <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ex-m-eEKsg>
Bob Dylan *- A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall *
https://youtu.be/-ex-m-eEKsg lyrics:
Oh, where have you been
My blue-eyed son?
And where have you been
My darling young one?
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highways
I've stepped in the middle of seven sad forests
I've been out in front of a dozen dead oceans
I've been ten thousand miles in the mouth of a graveyard
And it's a hard, it's a hard
It's a hard, it's a hard
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall
Oh, what did you see
My blue-eyed son?
And what did you see
My darling young one?
I saw a newborn baby with wild wolves all around it
I saw a highway of diamonds with nobody on it
I saw a black branch with blood that kept drippin'
I saw a room full of men with their hammers a-bleedin'
I saw a white ladder all covered with water
I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken
I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children
And it's a hard, it's a hard
It's a hard, and it's a hard
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall
And what did you hear
My blue-eyed son?
And what did you hear
My darling young one?
I heard the sound of the thunder that roared out a warning
I heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world
I heard one hundred drummers whose hands were a-blazin'
I heard ten thousand whisperin' and nobody listenin'
I heard one person starve, I heard many people laughin'
I heard the song of a poet who died in the gutter
I heard the sound of a clown who cried in the alley
And it's a hard, it's a hard
It's a hard, it's a hard
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall
Oh, what did you meet
My blue-eyed son?
And who did you meet
My darling young one?
I met a young child beside a dead pony
I met a white man who walked a black dog
I met a young woman, her body was burning
I met a young girl, she gave me a rainbow
I met one man who was wounded in love
I met another man who was wounded in hatred
And it's a hard, it's a hard
It's a hard, it's a hard
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall
And what'll you do now
My blue-eyed son?
And what'll you do now
My darling young one?
I'm a-goin' back out 'fore the rain starts a-fallin'
I'll walk to the depths of the deepest dark forest
Where the people are many and their hands are all empty
Where the pellets of poison are flooding their waters
Where their home in the valley meets the damp dirty prison
And the executioner's face is always well-hidden
Where hunger is ugly, where the souls are forgotten
Where black is the color, where none is the number
And I'll tell it and speak it and think it and breathe it
And reflect from the mountains so all souls can see it
And I'll stand on the ocean until I start sinkin'
But I'll know my song well before I start singing
And it's a hard, it's a hard
It's a hard, and it's a hard
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ex-m-eEKsg
*This Day in Climate History September 8, 2003
<http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/granule/FR-2003-09-08/03-22764/content-detail.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
September 8, 2003: The EPA denies a petition by the International
Center for Technology Assessment to regulate greenhouse gas emissions
under the Clean Air Act, setting off a four-year legal battle that
culminates in the Supreme Court's Massachusetts v. EPA ruling.
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/granule/FR-2003-09-08/03-22764/content-detail.html
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