[TheClimate.Vote] January 16, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Jan 16 10:18:13 EST 2018
/January 16, 2018/
[snowpack]
*Snowpack Near Record Lows Spells Trouble for Western Water Supplies
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15012018/snow-drought-ski-western-water-supply-risk-climate-change-economy>*
Scientists say snow seasons like the U.S. West is experiencing now will
become more common as global temperatures rise, and economic costs will
go up, as well.
By Bob Berwyn
Months of exceptionally warm weather and an early winter snow drought
across big swaths of the West have left the snowpack at record-low
levels in parts of the Central and Southern Rockies, raising concerns
about water shortages and economic damage...
Drought <http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/dashboard.html#briefings>spread
across large parts of the Western United States
<http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West>
this month, and storms that moved across the region in early January
made up only a small part of the deficit. Runoff from melting snow is
now projected to be less than 50 percent of average in key river basins
in the central and southern Rockies.
University of Colorado hydrologist Keith Musselman's research in the
southern Sierra Nevada <https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/2847/2017/>
shows how sensitive mountain snowpack is to global warming. Analyzing an
extensive dataset from the western flank of the Sierra, he found that
the snowpack shrinks by 10 percent for every 1 degree Celsius of
warming. And winter rain storms will increase as global temperatures
rise, melting snow that's already piled up and raising flood risks.
Climate scientists say snow seasons like the West is experiencing now
will become more common in the next few decades. If winter snows don't
come, there won't be much water to fill the reservoirs, *potentially
leaving cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Los Angeles dry in the future.*
The changes may come faster than expected, according to Oregon State
University climate scientist Philip Mote, referring to a Nov. 2017 study
<http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/11/899/html> showing how the snow line
- the elevation where rain changes over to snow - in California's
northern Sierra Nevada raced uphill by as much as 236 vertical feet per
year between 2008 and 2017, the warmest decade in Earth's observed
climate history.
If the same trend continues in the coming years, water managers will
have to make extensive-and expensive-adjustments to water storage and
distribution.
"Warming background temperatures combined with changes from snow to rain
leads to decreased water availability in spring and throughout the warm
season," the study's authors concluded.
That affects when water is available for agriculture or municipal
supplies, "potentially creating a mismatch between availability and
need. There is not enough reservoir storage capacity, so most of the
'early water' will be passed on to the oceans,"....
During Northern Hemisphere winters, the extensive snow cover reflects
incoming sunlight, helping to moderate the planet's overall warming.
Economic losses from reductions in snow-covered area could run as high
$575 billion annually, according to the research.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15012018/snow-drought-ski-western-water-supply-risk-climate-change-economy
[Data visualizing tool]
*Surging Seas Risk Finder: Summary Section
<https://riskfinder.climatecentral.org/>*
https://riskfinder.climatecentral.org/
climatecentraldotorg
Published on Jan 12, 2018
video https://youtu.be/Al023-Y7OIo
Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder is designed to provide
citizens, communities and policy makers in the U.S. with the tailored
local information they need to understand and respond to the risks of
sea level rise and coastal flooding in their own neighborhoods.
View this tutorial video to learn more about the top summary section of
this web tool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Al023-Y7OIo
https://riskfinder.climatecentral.org/
*Surging Seas Risk Finder: What Is at Risk?
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1w7UMzt9Gs>*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1w7UMzt9Gs
[Tree ring data]
*JET STREAM CHANGES SINCE 1960S LINKED TO MORE EXTREME WEATHER...
<http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/jet_stream_changes_since_1960s_linked_to_more_extreme_weather?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+joboneforhumanity%2FrLsZ+%28Global+Warming+Blog+-+Job+One+for+Humanity%29>*
By using tree rings, the UA-led team developed the first reconstruction
of historical changes in the North Atlantic jet stream prior to the 20th
century...
Increased fluctuations in the path of the North Atlantic jet stream
since the 1960s coincide with more extreme weather events in Europe such
as heat waves, droughts, wildfires and flooding, reports a University of
Arizona-led team.
The research is the first reconstruction of historical changes in the
North Atlantic jet stream prior to the 20th century. By studying tree
rings from trees in the British Isles and the northeastern
Mediterranean, the team teased out those regions' late-summer weather
going back almost 300 years - to 1725.
"We find that the position of the North Atlantic jet in summer has been
a strong driver of climate extremes in Europe for the last 300 years,"
said Valerie Trouet, an associate professor of dendrochronology at the
UA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research. <http://ltrr.arizona.edu/>
Having a 290-year record of the position of the jet stream let Trouet
and her colleagues determine that swings between northern and southern
positions of the jet became more frequent in the second half of the 20th
century, she said.
"Since 1960 we get more years when the jet is in an extreme position,"
Trouet said, adding that the increase is unprecedented.
When the North Atlantic jet is in the extreme northern position, the
British Isles and western Europe have a summer heat wave while
southeastern Europe has heavy rains and flooding, she said...
When the jet is in the extreme southern position, the situation flips:
Western Europe has heavy rains and flooding while southeastern Europe
has extreme high temperatures, drought and wildfires.
"There's a debate about whether the increased variability of the jet
stream is linked to man-made global warming and the faster warming of
the Arctic compared to the tropics," Trouet said...
"Part of the reason for the debate is that the data sets used to study
this are quite short - 1979 to present. If you want to see if this
variability is unprecedented, you need to go farther back in time - and
that's where our study comes in."
With the discovery of much older trees in the Balkans and in the British
Isles, Trouet hopes to reconstruct the path of the North Atlantic jet
stream as much as 1,000 years into the past. She is also interested in
reconstructing the path of the North Pacific jet stream, which
influences the climate and weather over North America.
http://www.joboneforhumanity.org/jet_stream_changes_since_1960s_linked_to_more_extreme_weather
[not the same as rising seas?]
*The sea floor is sinking under the weight of climate change
<http://geographical.co.uk/nature/climate/item/2570-sea-floor-sinking-under-the-weight-of-climate-change>*
'Over the last 20 years the oceans have become ~2.5 mm deeper. It was
already assumed that bottom deformation was small, compared to sea-level
rise on a global scale. However, we show that for some regions,
especially the Arctic and Southern oceans, its size is considerable.'...
Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global
warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, and the
expansion of sea water as it warms. This rise has long been documented,
but what these new findings mean is that the global sea level rise is
actually higher than previously thought....
The existing numbers were based on satellite data which measured surface
level relative to the centre of the Earth, assuming the ocean floor as
basically a fixed constant depth. Now this assumption has been proved to
be wrong, the significance being that even more water from melting ice
has reentered the oceans than was thought, thanks to climate change and
human activity.
Perhaps almost as telling of the state of wilful ignorance to climate
change and its consequences, is that the unexpected phenomena of our
swelling oceans actually contracting the Earth has been known by
scientists for some time, it is simply a lesser documented and less
visible symptom of climate change...
'It is widely accepted that, when greenhouse gas emissions won't be cut,
the ice sheets will retreat at a much faster pace than today, and then,
due to the massive increase in ocean mass, seafloor deformation will
become significant,' says Frederikse.
http://geographical.co.uk/nature/climate/item/2570-sea-floor-sinking-under-the-weight-of-climate-change
[Research News]
*Agriculture, Climate, Change
<https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/agriculture-climate-change-2/41146/>*
Research crop scientist from the K-State Northwest Research-Extension
Center, Professor Robert Aiken explores agriculture and crop research
issues in the United States today
"As an agricultural scientist, I consider it my duty to anticipate
questions and problems which may confront farmers in the future. When
I'm successful, designing and conducting effective field studies, we
have the information needed to formulate feasible solutions, before
problems get out of hand.
In my semi-arid region of the U.S. Central High Plains, our crop systems
contend with heat stress, desiccating winds, lack of rainfall,
flood-generating rains and unexpected arctic air masses, inducing
winter-kill or bringing the season to a chilling conclusion. Adapting to
climate change? In a sense, we prepare for climate change by helping
farmers adjust to the challenges of the current growing season."
<https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/creating-climate-solutions-agriculture-forestry/27391/>
Our growers recognise long-term warming trends and shifts in weather
patterns. A recent report (1), *prepared by the State Climatologists of
Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, indicates climate change has been written
into the historical weather record.* ... from the report:
Both temperature and precipitation have increased across the
Southern Plains since the beginning of the 20th century. Temperature
increases so far have averaged about 1.5degreesF (0.8degreesC) over
the 20th century and precipitation has increased by as much as 5%,
albeit with large variations from year-to-year and decade-to-decade.
Heavy rainfall events have increased in frequency and magnitude.
Historical data for tornadoes and hail are not reliable enough to be
used to determine whether a trend is present in these types of
severe weather." (1)
"Variations in drought conditions from year-to-year and
decade-to-decade are triggered by changes in sea surface temperature
patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The Dust Bowl drought
is thought to have been exacerbated by poor land use practices,
while precipitation may have been enhanced in recent decades by
growth in irrigated agriculture and surface water." (1)
"Temperatures will continue rising over the long-term, as carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases continue to become more plentiful
in the atmosphere. By the middle of the 21st century, typical
temperatures in the Southern Plains are likely to be 4degreesF to
6degreesF (2.2degreesC to 3.3degreesC) warmer than the 20th century
average, making for milder winters (with less snow and freezing
rain), longer growing seasons and hotter summers. Rainfall trends
are much less certain. Most climate models favour a long-term
decrease, but most projected changes are small compared to natural
variability. Extreme rainfall is expected to continue to become more
intense and frequent." (1)
I have specific concerns deriving from these warming trends:
declining yield potential because of increased night temperatures,
diminished photo-protection systems under persistent heat stress,
increased risk of reproductive failure with heat stress at critical
development stages, increased crop water requirements, degradation
of soil with intensive rainfall events and increased potential for
large-scale methane emissions unleashed by thawing permafrost (2).
These concerns rise to the top of my "watch list" for climate change
impacts.
Crop productivity is expected to benefit from historic and on-going
annual increases in global CO2 concentrations. Assimilation rates
can be maintained with modestly reduced crop water requirements.
Cool-season grass crops and broadleaf crops will likely gain
photosynthetic efficiencies. However, warming trends can detract
from the beneficial effects of elevated CO2 levels.
"When elevated temperatures exceed optimal conditions for
assimilation, stress responses can include damage to the
light-harvesting complex of leaves, impaired carbon-fixing enzymes,
thereby reducing components of yield including seed potential, seed
set, grain fill rate and grain fill duration. Field studies
conducted under conditions of elevated CO2 indicate that benefits of
elevated CO2 are reduced by heat-induced stress responses."(3)
Warmer temperatures, the most reliable feature of climate change,
can extend the growing season, but also impair plant productivity.
Persistent heat stress pushes plant metabolism to the edge of
toleration. The complexity of plant metabolic processes can be
astounding. Many of these processes are temperature-sensitive, with
optimum temperatures for photosynthesis ranging from 25 to
30degreesC (77 to 86degreesF) for winter wheat (4), up to 32degreesC
(90degreesF) for soybean (5) and up to 38degreesC (100degreesF) for
maize (6). Chronic heat stress, with daily temperatures exceeding
this range, can accelerate the breakdown of thermo-protective
mechanisms and can result in permanent damage to crop canopies.
Hot conditions prior to and during flowering can result in crop
failure. Grain production requires effective pollination of ovules
for 'seed set', followed by development and growth of the kernels,
harvested as grain. Excessive temperatures (i.e., daily mean
temperatures > 25degreesC for grain sorghum (7), wheat (8)) for a
few days in the ~15-day period around flowering can decrease yield
potential due to impaired pollination and seed-set; complete failure
can occur with daily mean temperatures of 35degreesC (wheat) or
37degreesC (sorghum).
Night temperatures drive the metabolic rates of a plant, with the
associated respiratory release of CO29 as well as cell degradation
(10). In a sense, plant respiration depletes the supply of
carbohydrates available for plant growth and development. As a
long-term trend, warmer night temperatures can sap crop productivity.
Chronic high temperatures add to the evaporative demand on crop
systems. This increases the water requirement for crop growth.
Warmer temperatures can sap yield potential by impairing
heat-tolerance protective mechanisms; by reducing the duration of
grain-filling; and by increasing the respiratory cost, the water
requirement for growth and the risk of reproductive failure of
cereal crops. Warmer temperatures carry a complex drum-beat of
warnings for crop productivity. Needed research is underway to adapt
crop cultural practices
<https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/ucd-origin-17-6m-crop-science-research-partnership/30638/>
to avoid heat stress; and to seek genetic advances for crop
cultivars that are capable of tolerating or resisting effects of
warming temperatures./Please note: this is a commercial profile/
*Robert Aiken, **Associate Professor*
*Research Crop Scientist*
see footnotes:
https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/agriculture-climate-change-2/41146/
[ecosystem paleo study]
*Combined effects of climate change and forest fires
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180110101022.htm>*
A new study co-authored by Portland State University geographer Andres
Holz, tracked the ebb and flow of ecosystem changes over the last 10,000
years, showing patterns that could shed light on current climate change
and its role in shaping the world's forests.
Holz and fellow scientists studied sedimentary records, including pollen
and the charcoal remains of ancient wildfires near a lake in South
America in an effort to reconstruct the wetland, vegetation and fire
history of west-central Patagonia.
They found that climate, coupled with more frequent forest fires, was
the primary driver of change to the region over thousands of years.
The study showed that forests in the region remained basically unchanged
until about 2,000 years ago, when fires became more frequent and shifts
in the composition of bogs and forests began to change. Both were likely
triggered by the combination of greater climate variability and
deforestation -- presumably due to human arrival...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180110101022.htm
*New Penn State course analyzes the ethics of climate change
<http://www.collegian.psu.edu/news/borough/article_4ec790cc-f9a4-11e7-a213-aff099f7cbb3.html>*
"This is a huge problem, but we have the tools to understand the
debate," he said. "We can all make a contribution to addressing this
looming crisis."
"Climate change is more complicated than many make it out to be and
because it is already affecting our lives," Rosoff-Verbit
(junior-materials science and engineering) said. "It is definitely
important that we comprehensively understand the issue."
Rosoff-Verbit said many college students will soon graduate and be open
to new opportunities, but are unaware of ways they can make an impact.
"This class not only educates students on climate change scientifically,
but looks like a great tool to inform individuals of the opportunities
related to the subject in the working world," Rosoff-Verbit said.
http://www.collegian.psu.edu/news/borough/article_4ec790cc-f9a4-11e7-a213-aff099f7cbb3.html-
[Australia]
*Reporting on climate change risk: accountants will be needed
<https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2018/01/16/climate-change-financial-disclosures>*
Accountants need to know about the latest climate change reporting
initiative because boards and clients will be seeking their advice.
In June 2017, the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures
released a blueprint
<https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/publications/final-recommendations-report/>
for corporate disclosure that is destined to define how companies view
climate change and inform investors.
"The report is a financial market industry-led framework that gives
guidance on information that should be disclosed to provide a true and
fair view of the risks associated with climate change," says Sarah
Barker, special counsel at law firm MinterEllison.
The framework is voluntary but Barker says it is as persuasive as a
voluntary instrument can be, because it's prepared under the auspices of
the Financial Stability Board <http://www.fsb.org/>.
https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2018/01/16/climate-change-financial-disclosures
[Speaking Notes #7]
OXFORD CHANGE AGENCY EVENT - REPORT
*Agency in individual and collective change
<http://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/explorations/papers/257-oxford-change-agency-event-report>*
Climate Psychology Alliance with Living Witness
A day for psychological and social practitioners to share our
experiences of enabling positive
responses to climate change. We'll explore how our different approaches
connect and complement
each other, hoping to form a stronger community of practitioners.
*Deep Frames and Healthy Human Culture, led by Sophy Banks*
Reflection from Nick Davis
I found Sophy's introduction looking at the parallel process between
planetary conflict and resource
depletion and our own tendency to burn-out very engaging.
She offered a neuroscience foundation saying that the healthy person
needs to live in a natural flow
between sympathetic and parasympathetic states. (Often called the HPA or
hypothalamic-pituitaryadrenal
system)
She asked us do an exercise in pairs and choose one of the following
five polarities to work with:
• Outer-Inner
• Action- Stillness
• Doing- Being
• Will-Love
• Yang-Yin
and have one of the pair do/be one of each of the polarities and extend
this into exaggerating,
distorting and moving into the essence, and ultimately into relating
with our partner from it. We then
swapped states.
As a group we then wrote down what we felt in each state.
This is the work of inner transition and is particularly necessary to
bring us into a place where we are
able to observe our defences and trauma in order to heal ourselves
rather than remaining in the
stress=>burn-out cycle.
With limited time available she said that in our culture there are deep
frames, and the economic
frame pushes us into the stress=>burn-out cycle. Performance is valued
more than nurturing and we
live in the world of the authoritarian parent rather than the nurturing
parent.
http://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/explorations/papers/257-oxford-change-agency-event-report
[from envirodatagov.org]
*III. A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE DENIALISM IN THE U.S.
<http://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/>*
The alteration of climate change content on federal websites extends
a longer campaign to "manufacture doubt" on human-caused (or
anthropogenic) climate change. Since the 1980s, fossil fuel
interests, from companies and think tanks to media and politicians,
have drawn upon strategies forged by the tobacco and other
threatened industries to cultivate public skepticism about climate
change.*[13]* Over the past two decades, this campaign has gained in
confidence, clout, and momentum, to the point that, even prior to
the 2016 election, it had effectively precluded many meaningful
legislative or policy changes to regulate fossil fuel emissions and
encourage alternative energy sources, in order to protect industry
profits.
The climate change denial movement in the U.S. has deep roots in
older efforts by oil, gas, tobacco, and chemical industries to
counter scientific research that raised hard questions about the
products they sold. As Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway have explained
in compelling depth,*[14]* the post-World-War-II tobacco industry
pioneered new ways of discrediting health studies that demonstrated
the connection between tobacco use and cancer or other health risks.
Seeking to intervene in the field of scientific debate itself, they
funded counter-research by a shrinking number of sympathetic
scientists, demanded a level of certainty that scientists rarely
possess, and exaggerated the uncertainty of existing science. They
also sought a broader public audience for their contrarian messages
by creating echo chambers of think tanks and other organizations
they quietly funded, as well as consolidating ties to media outlets.
All of these tactics have been taken up and amplified by the
campaign to manufacture doubt about anthropogenic climate change,
even as the supporting scientific evidence and consensus for it has
become ever more solid.*[15]
* Contemporary alterations of climate information are not merely the
culmination of a multi-decade crescendo of denialism but also part
of a wider practice of censoring science that is seen to be at odds
with short-term economic gains. In recent years, the actual or
attempted muzzling of federal scientists in Canada, Australia, Great
Britain, and the United States has been the most common means of
science suppression.*[16] *In the case of the George W. Bush
administration, such actions provided cover for political
interference in the production of climate change reports and
communication, despite the administration's acknowledgment of the
importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.*[17]
* The alterations and removal of information that we document below
clearly demonstrate that the once-fringe effort to seed doubts about
climate science has been mainstreamed into the Executive Branch of
the U.S. government. Climate deniers have won influential posts
across all the major environmental agencies, and the agencies'
websites increasingly reflect denialist beliefs. These changes
matter because they make it easier to mislead the public about
climate change, since federal websites have long been viewed as
authoritative sources of environmental information. Climate
denialists' historic political achievement elevates the manufacture
of doubt to the level of state-sponsored censorship...
http://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/
[13] Particularly the Heritage Institute, the Competitive Enterprise
Institute, and the George C. Marshall Institute.
[14] Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway, Merchants of Doubt: How a
Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco
Smoke to Global Warming (New York: Bloomsbury, 2010).
[15] Graham Readfearn, "Doubt over climate science is a product with
an industry behind it," The Guardian, March 5, 2015,
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2015/mar/05/doubt-over-climate-science-is-a-product-with-an-industry-behind-it
(Accessed December 27, 2017).; The first Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) report was released in 1990, with the fifth
and most recent report (2014) concluding "human influence on the
climate is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
gases are the highest in history. Recent climate impacts have
widespread impacts on human and natural systems." "Summary for
Policymakers" http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_summary.php (Accessed
December 24, 2017).
[16] EDGI, "The EPA Under Siege," (June 19, 2017); also Euon J.
Ritchie, Don A. Driscoll, and Martine Maron, "Communication: Science
censorship is a global issue," Nature, (February 9, 2017),
https://www.nature.com/articles/542165b (Accessed December 24, 2017).
[17] Union of Concerned Scientists and Government Accountability
Project, Atmosphere of Pressure: Political Interference in Federal
Climate Science, (February 2007),
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/scientific_integrity/atmosphere-of-pressure.pdf
(Accessed December 24, 2017); The current administration by no means
represents the most extreme attempt at science suppression in U.S.
history. Take for example the actions of the governor of California
at the turn of the 20th century, who was concerned that tourism and
trade would be negatively impacted by the declaration of bubonic
plague deaths in the growing metropolis of San Francisco. The
governor, with the help of state legislators, proposed a bill that
would illegalize the bacterial diagnostic methods needed to
determine public health emergencies, a law that directly named a
municipal scientist that "should be hanged." See Marilyn Chase,The
Barbary Plague (New York: Random House, 2003), 80.
TABLE OF
CONTENTS:http://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/#h.bvng7vm3lrh2
http://100days.envirodatagov.org/changing-digital-climate/
*This Day in Climate History January 16, 2006
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/16/AR2006011600779.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
January 16, 2006: At a speech in Constitution Hall, Washington, D.C.,
former Vice President Al Gore declares:
"[T]he American people, who have a right to believe that its elected
representatives will learn the truth and act on the basis of knowledge
and utilize the rule of reason, have been let down.
To take another example, scientific warnings about the catastrophic
consequences of unchecked global warming were censored by a political
appointee in the White House with no scientific training whatsoever.
"Today one of the most distinguished scientific experts in the world
on global warming, who works in NASA, has been ordered not to talk to
members of the press; ordered to keep a careful log of everyone he
meets with so that the executive branch can monitor and control what
he shares of his knowledge about global warming.
"This is a planetary crisis. We owe ourselves a truthful and reasoned
discussion."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/16/AR2006011600779.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD_2e1dIl2s
/
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