[TheClimate.Vote] October 4, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Oct 4 11:10:08 EDT 2018
/October 4, 2018/
[Washington Post]
*Climate scientists are struggling to find the right words for very bad
news
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/03/climate-scientists-are-struggling-find-right-words-very-bad-news/?utm_term=.e3b245e478be>*
A much-awaited report from the U.N.'s top climate science panel will
show an enormous gap between where we are and where we need to be to
prevent dangerous levels of warming.
VHris Mooney and Brady Dennis - October 3
In Incheon, South Korea, this week, representatives of over 130
countries and about 50 scientists have packed into a large conference
center going over every line of an all-important report: What chance
does the planet have of keeping climate change to a moderate,
controllable level?
When they can't agree, they form "contact groups" outside the hall,
trying to strike an agreement and move the process along. They are
trying to reach consensus on what it would mean -- and what it would
take -- to limit the warming of the planet to just 1.5 degrees Celsius,
or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, when 1 degree Celsius has already occurred
and greenhouse gas emissions remain at record highs...
- - - -
"Half a degree doesn't sound like much til you put it in the right
context," said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance
and Sustainable Development. "It's 50 percent more than we have now."
The idea of letting warming approach 2 degrees Celsius increasingly
seems disastrous in this context...
- - - -
An early draft (leaked and published by the website Climate Home News)
suggests that future scenarios of a 1.5 C warming limit would require
the massive deployment of technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the
air and bury it below the ground. Such technologies do not exist at
anything close to the scale that would be required.
"There are now very small number of pathways [to 1.5C] that don't
involve carbon removal," said Jim Skea, chair of the IPCC's Working
Group III and a professor at Imperial College London.
It's not clear how scientists can best give the world's governments this
message -- or to what extent governments are up for hearing it.
An early leaked draft of the report said there was a "very high risk"
that the world would warm more than 1.5 degrees. But a later draft, also
leaked to Climate Home News, appeared to back off, instead saying that
"there is no simple answer to the question of whether it is feasible to
limit warming to 1.5 C . . . feasibility has multiple dimensions that
need to be considered simultaneously and systematically."
None of this language is final. That's what this week in Incheon --
intended to get the report ready for an official release on Monday -- is
all about.
"I think many people would be happy if we were further along than we
are," the IPCC's Lynn said Wednesday morning in Incheon. "But in all the
approval sessions that I've seen, I've seen five of them now, that has
always been the case. It sort of gets there in the end."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/03/climate-scientists-are-struggling-find-right-words-very-bad-news/?utm_term=.e3b245e478be
- - - -
[draft report leaked]
*Leaked draft summary of UN special report on 1.5C climate goal - in
full
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/13/leaked-draft-summary-un-special-report-1-5c-climate-goal-full/>*
Read the draft summary for policymakers of the most important climate
science report of the year, on the challenge of holding global warming
to 1.5C
Climate Home News is one of the world's most trusted independent sources
of climate politics news. Sign up for our newsletter
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/newsletter-sign-up/>.
- - - - -
The draft report, which was publicly available on the US federal
register over the past month, is open to review by experts and
governments until 25 February on the IPCC website. Relevant studies
published in journals by 15 May may be included in the final version and
modify its conclusions.
After media reports on the summary in January, the IPCC released a
statement.
Draft reports are provided to reviewers as working documents. They are
not intended for public distribution, and must not be quoted or cited
for the following reasons:
- Firstly, the text can change substantially between the Second
Order Draft and the final version once the report's authors have
carefully considered every individual government and expert review
comment. For instance, the First Order Draft of this report received
12,895 comments from nearly 500 expert reviewers. Like any work in
progress, it is important to respect the authors and give them the
time and space to finish writing before making the work public.
- Secondly, the Second Order Draft is based on scientific literature
published or submitted for publication before 1 November 2017. Newly
published scientific evidence highlighted by reviewers can still be
taken into account between the Second Order Draft and the final
version of the report, as long as it is accepted for publication in
a journal before 15 May 2018.
Drafts of the report are, therefore, collective works in progress that
do not necessarily represent the IPCC's final assessment of the state of
knowledge.
The IPCC is committed to an open, robust and transparent assessment
process. In each stage of review, the Working Groups actively seek the
collaboration of researchers and practitioners across a broad range of
expertise. As with the normal practice of peer review, this process is
designed to make the report more accurate, comprehensive and objective.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/02/13/leaked-draft-summary-un-special-report-1-5c-climate-goal-full/
[study further]
*A warmer spring leads to less plant growth in summer
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181003134507.htm>*
Date: October 3, 2018
Source: Vienna University of Technology
Summary: Due to climate change, springtime growth begins earlier each
year. Up to now, it was thought that this phenomenon was slowing climate
change. However, as evaluations of satellite data have now shown, the
opposite is the case.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181003134507.htm
[Paul Beckwith video lecture 15 mins]
*Profound Climate Mayhem With NO Arctic Sea-Ice
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMra7pPFqmE>*
Paul Beckwith
Published on Oct 3, 2018
In a few years we face a world with NO Arctic sea-ice. Profound climate
and weather changes will profoundly disrupt human societies, eg. severe
global food shortages. In previous videos I discussed timeframes and
trajectories for a zero sea-ice state, and a shift of the center-of-cold
by 17 degrees latitude. Now, and next video I delve into heat capacity
changes with spiking Arctic warming, magnified ocean waves bringing heat
from depth, destabilizing Greenlands glaciers; also wind reversals,
monsoon effects, and bubbling methane.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMra7pPFqmE
[Desert flooding]
*Not Your Expected Climate Impact: Arizona Flooded by a Tropical Storm
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/10/02/climate-impact-flooding-arizona-rosa/>*
By Ucilia Wang
As Tropical Storm Rosa rolls through Arizona, dousing desert towns with
heavy rains and filling reservoirs nearly depleted by a lengthy drought,
the storm's arrival is also a message from the sky about the impact of
climate change: it can produce weird weather that in ancient times might
have been attributed to angry gods.
Now, however, the unusual sight of flooded streets in Arizona can be
explained by science.
"There's a climate change component to it and we can say that with
confidence," said Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the National
Center for Atmospheric Research.
Global warming has raised ocean temperatures and warmed the air above
it, supercharging storms with moisture that they unleash in bigger
rainfalls. Researchers now have enough data to connect the dots between
increasing greenhouse gas emissions, greater moisture in the air and
outsized rainstorms, Trenberth said.
*The air above the ocean can hold 4 percent more moisture for every
degree Fahrenheit and scientists have found about 5-20 percent more
moisture gathered in the air since the 1970s, T*renberth said. The
result played out last month when Hurricane Florence doused parts of the
Carolinas with 30 inches of rain.
"The main effects are the storms are more intense and last longer, and
the rain is heavier. In Hurricane Florence, we have all three effects in
play," he said...
- - --
"Hurricanes usually lose strength once they hit California. But the risk
to the southern part of the state may increase a little bit because
water is warmer, so hurricanes won't lose strength as quickly,"
Trenberth said.
One of the issues facing people in the path of these wetter hurricanes
is that traditional home insurance does not cover damage from flooding,
leaving people facing huge financial losses. Insurance experts have
estimated that Hurricane Florence will produce insured losses of up to
$5 billion. But according to risk modeling firm RMS, 70 percent of
losses will be uninsured because much of the flooding happened inland,
where people do not have flood coverage.
Florence sent tens of thousands of people into shelters across the
Carolinas, causing major power outages and leading to the dozens of
deaths, including 37 in North Carolina.
A computer model of Florence, based on data taken before it made
landfall, showed that climate change was likely to boost its rainfall by
50 percent.
Rosa began as a Category 4 hurricane but lost its power before it made
landfall in Baja California, Mexico as a tropical storm on Monday night.
The rating system refers to wind speed and not rainfall, however,
prompting debates over whether it can cause people to underestimate the
true impact of a storm. Florence was downgraded from Category 4 to
Category 1 before landfall, but the water it brought inflicted far more
pain than the wind.
While Rosa wowed desert dwellers with rain, meteorologists pointed to
another unusual phenomenon Tuesday: two Category 5 hurricanes
simultaneously crossing the Pacific.
"Simultaneous Cat 5s are very rare, and this is the first time in the
historical record that Cat 5s have existed simultaneously in the
Northwest Pacific and Northeast Pacific," wrote Jeff Masters, co-founder
of Weather Underground.
The rain unleashed by Rosa was creating rarely seen sights of flooded
streets in Phoenix and other cities in central Arizona. The weather
service said Phoenix, with 2.24 inches of rain on Tuesday, experienced
the second wettest October day and the "ninth wettest day ever (so far)."
Flat and dry landscapes don't need much rain to create floods, Trenberth
said, because the super dry soil of the Southwest doesn't soak up rain well.
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/10/02/climate-impact-flooding-arizona-rosa/
[Communicating Global Warming ]
*GUIDES Download Breakthrough's new short guide series.
<https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/guides>*
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ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS
actions to re-instate natural climate processes that generate global
average temperatures and ocean
acidity that are safe for all species and for civilisation. (ie.
preindustrial temperatures & acidity). Safe climate restoration
https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/guides
*This Day in Climate History - October 4, 2009
<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/world/asia/04climate.html?_r=0> -
from D.R. Tucker*
October 4, 2009: The New York Times reports on India's efforts to
address climate change:
"India's public stance on climate change is usually predictable --
predictably obstinate and unwilling to compromise, at least
according to many industrialized nations. But at the United Nations,
India’s delegation toned down its usual criticisms of the
industrialized world, presented new plans to reduce India’s
emissions and sought to reposition the country, in the words of the
environment minister, as a 'deal maker,' not a 'deal breaker.'"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/world/asia/04climate.html?_r=0
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