[TheClimate.Vote] January 9, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/January 9, 2019/

[no time to waste]
*Court Sets Quick Deadline for Kids Climate Case Appeal*
Julia Olson and Phil Gregory, lawyers in the kids climate case, won an 
expedited schedule from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals Litigation - 
January 8, 2019
By Karen Savage
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals has given the Trump administration 
until Feb. 1 to file its opening brief in its attempt to short-circuit 
the the landmark constitutional climate lawsuit, Juliana v. United 
States, launching an expedited schedule to consider the government's 
extraordinary appeal. The Ninth Circuit judges denied a request by the 
administration to delay proceedings due to the government shutdown.

The ruling, handed down by a three-judge panel on Monday, sets in motion 
a schedule on the interlocutory appeal, which the court agreed to hear 
late last month. The schedule requires the young plaintiffs to respond 
by February 22, with a hearing to be scheduled at the Ninth Circuit's 
earliest available date.

The judges also indicated that future requests for extensions of time by 
the government would likely be denied.

"This schedule is a ray of light for the plaintiffs," said Julia Olson, 
co-counsel for the young plaintiffs. "Time is the enemy as carbon 
dioxide builds in our atmosphere every day threatening the personal 
security and lives of these young people. We will continue to press 
forward on all fronts as quickly as possible. We're glad the Ninth 
Circuit recognizes the urgency this case presents"...
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/01/08/kids-climate-case-appeal-ninth-circuit/ 


- - -
[astounding changes ahead]
*"THE TRIAL OF THE CENTURY": A PREVIEW OF HOW CLIMATE SCIENCE COULD PLAY 
OUT IN THE COURTROOM, COURTESY OF JULIANA V. UNITED STATES*
Posted on January 7th, 2019 by Jessica Wentz
- -
*The Pleadings: Two Key Issues of Fact*
Plaintiffs' case, and their ability to bring their case to court, hinge 
on two factual issues: (1) the extent to which the U.S. government can 
be deemed responsible for greenhouse gas emissions that are causing 
anthropogenic climate change, and (2) the extent to which anthropogenic 
climate change is responsible for the specific injuries or harms 
suffered by the individual plaintiffs. In a major research project we 
are conducting with our colleague Radley Horton, a climate scientist at 
the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, we define these concepts as 
"source attribution" (the attribution of anthropogenic climate change to 
specific sources) and "impact attribution" (the attribution of 
particular impacts to anthropogenic climate change)...
- -
*What Next?*
Ultimately, the district court found "that plaintiffs have provided 
sufficient evidence showing that causation for their claims is more than 
attenuated;" that "the ultimate issue of causation will require perhaps 
the most extensive evidence to determine at trial;" and that "[a] final 
ruling on this issue will benefit from a fully developed factual record 
where the Court can consider and weigh evidence from both parties." But, 
even without the "trial of the century" moving forward we can see the 
contours of the "battle of experts" such a trial would entail. 
Plaintiffs' primary goal with its expert testimony is to establish that 
the defendants are responsible for a meaningful contribution to climate 
change - an amount sufficient to prove causal relationships that satisfy 
the standing requirements and the even more demanding standards for 
showing a violation of public trust obligations and/or constitutional 
rights - and that climate change is the legal cause of specific injuries 
suffered by the plaintiffs. Defendants' strategy is to undermine the 
reliability of plaintiffs' proffers, and their tactic is to poke holes 
in plaintiffs' expert reports by challenging the methodologies and 
results of plaintiffs' source attribution studies, questioning the 
extent to which particular impacts have been (or can be) directly 
attributed to climate change, and highlighting the importance of 
confounding factors in creating any injuries suffered by the plaintiffs. 
We expect these lines of reasoning will predominate in this and other 
climate cases that seek to assign blame, force action, or recover 
damages for climate change.

For now, though, we expect to hear from the 9th Circuit on the validity 
of the constitutional and public trust claims. The courtroom battle over 
the science of climate change will have to wait for another day.
http://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2019/01/07/the-trial-of-the-century-a-preview-of-how-climate-science-could-play-out-in-the-courtroom-courtesy-of-juliana-v-united-states/


[Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Executive order]
*Gov. Wolf sets target of slashing Pa.'s greenhouse gas pollution 80 
percent by 2050*
ANYA LITVAK AND LAURA LEGERE
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Gov. Tom Wolf has set Pennsylvania's first economy-wide target for 
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and proposed steps for the agencies 
under his watch to slash their energy use, through an executive order he 
signed on Tuesday at the Heinz History Center.

The governor made the announcement while hailing Peoples Natural Gas, 
the North Shore-based utility that announced a plan to cut its methane 
emissions in half, as a model for how industry and government can tackle 
the problem without confrontation.

"The threat that we're confronting is not an abstract problem," he said 
at an event organized by the Environmental Defense Fund, a New 
York-based nonprofit. "2018 was the wettest year on record with 
flooding. That's affected our farms. It's devastated homes. This is 
affecting all of our lives each and every day."

"...His goals — a 26 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions 
statewide by 2025 and an 80 percent reduction by 2050, both from 2005 
levels — are the same as those the state Department of Environmental 
Protection wrote into its draft climate change action plan in November.

The targets are ambitious but mirror federal projections for what it 
will take to keep global temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius 
above preindustrial levels — the international consensus threshold for 
avoiding the worst effects of climate change, although devastating 
changes are expected to start with even less warming.

The 2025 target is the same as what the U.S. promised to meet as part of 
the Paris Agreement, a climate accord among nearly all of the world's 
nations that the Trump administration plans to withdraw from...."
https://www.post-gazette.com/business/powersource/2019/01/08/Wolf-Pennsylvania-greenhouse-gas-carbon-climate/stories/201901080082


[important]
*Rising Waters Are Drowning Amtrak's Northeast Corridor*
By the middle of this century, climate change may punch a hole through 
the bottom half of the Northeast Corridor.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-amtrak-sea-level/


[just a little history for our discussions]
Opinion [NYTimes]
*Going Nowhere Fast on Climate, Year After Year*
Three decades after a top climate scientist warned Congress of the 
dangers of global warming, greenhouse gas emissions keep rising and so 
do global temperatures.
By Paul Bledsoe
Mr. Bledsoe lectures on environmental policy at American University.
Dec. 29, 2018
Thirty years ago, a NASA scientist, James Hansen, told lawmakers at a 
Senate hearing that "global warming is now large enough that we can 
ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause-and-effect relationship 
with the greenhouse effect." He added that there "is only 1 percent 
chance of accidental warming of this magnitude."

By that, he meant that humans were responsible.

His testimony made headlines around the United States and the world. But 
in the time since, greenhouse gas emissions, the global temperature 
average and cost of climate-related heat, wildfires, droughts, flooding 
and hurricanes have continued to rise.

This fall, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 
released an alarming report warning that if emissions continue to rise 
at their present rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 2.7 
degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by 
2040, resulting in the flooding of coastlines, the killing of coral 
reefs worldwide, and more catastrophic droughts and wildfires.

To avoid this, greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by nearly 
half from 2010 levels in the next 12 years and reach a net of zero by 
2050. But in the United States, the world's second-largest emitter of 
greenhouse gases, President Trump continues to question the science of 
climate change, and his administration is rolling back emissions limits 
on power plants and fuel economy standards on cars and light trucks, 
while pushing to accelerate the use of fossil fuels. Other major nations 
around the world aren't cutting emissions quickly enough, either.

So what has happened over the last 30 years? Progress has been made in 
fits and starts, but not nearly enough has been done to confront the 
planet-altering magnitude of what we have unleashed. Here's a look at 
some of what has occurred:

*1988*
A report to Congress by the Environmental Protection Agency warns that 
global warming caused by industrial pollutants is likely to shrink 
forests, destroy most coastal wetlands, reduce water quality and 
quantity in many areas and otherwise cause extensive environmental 
disruption in the United States over the next century.

The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization form the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to report to world leaders on 
the science of climate change.

*1989*
Britain's prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, who earned a degree in 
chemistry at Oxford, tells the United Nations in a speech, "We are 
seeing a vast increase in the amount of carbon dioxide reaching the 
atmosphere." She warns that, as a result, "change in future is likely to 
be more fundamental and more widespread than anything we have known 
hitherto." She calls for a global treaty on climate change.

*1990*
In its first report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says 
that "human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric 
concentrations of the greenhouse gases" and will lead to a predicted 
"increase of global mean temperature during the" 21st century "of about 
0.3 degrees Celsius per decade," which it says is "greater than that 
seen over the past 10,000 years." That's a little more than a 
half-degree Fahrenheit per decade.

*1991*
An internal study by the oil giant Exxon finds that "warming will 
clearly affect sea ice, icebergs, permafrost and sea levels" in the 
Arctic and that "higher sea levels and bigger waves" could "damage the 
company's existing and future coastal and offshore infrastructure."
*
**1992*
The United States and 171 other nations, meeting at the Earth Summit in 
Brazil, sign a treaty on climate change to limit greenhouse gas 
emissions to a level that will not interfere with the planet's climate. 
But the deal lacks mechanisms to achieve that goal.

*1993*
President Bill Clinton proposes a federal tax on fossil energy sources 
to help reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The measure narrowly passes the 
House of Representatives but dies in the Senate; a gasoline tax increase 
of 4.3 cents per gallon becomes law instead, the last time federal 
energy taxes have been raised.

*1994*
An Earth Summit agreement, approved by 166 counties, enters into force, 
committing nations to "stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the 
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic 
interference with the climate system."

*1995*
Countries that signed the Earth Summit agreement in 1992 agree to 
negotiate "binding targets" on emissions for major developed countries 
like the United States, but set significantly less stringent 
requirements for developing countries like China and India.

*1996*
Climate change plays almost no role in the presidential campaign, with 
no mentions in the presidential debates and only a passing reference in 
the vice-presidential debate.
*
**1997*
Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, reach the 
highest levels in at least 400,000 years, as measured in Arctic ice cores.

More than 1,500 scientists from 63 countries, including 110 Nobel Prize 
winners, issue a call to action: "A broad consensus among the world's 
climatologists is that there is now a discernible human influence on 
global climate" that represents "one of the most serious threats to the 
planet and to future generations."

One hundred and ninety-two nations agree to the Kyoto Protocol to fight 
global warming. The agreement requires the United States and other 
developed countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but not developing 
countries like China.
*
**1998*
The global average temperature of 58 degrees Fahrenheit is the warmest 
since reliable records began about 120 years ago.

Industry opponents of the Kyoto Protocol draft a proposal to spend 
millions of dollars to convince the public that the environmental accord 
is based on shaky science.

*2000*
In the presidential campaign, George W. Bush, the Republican nominee, 
promises to cut carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, while Al 
Gore, the Democratic candidate, calls for aggressive climate policies 
but does not make climate change a major campaign issue and mentions it 
only once in the debates.
*
**2001*
Under strong pressure from conservative Republicans and industry groups, 
President Bush says his administration will not seek to regulate 
emissions of carbon dioxide from power plants. reversing a campaign 
pledge. He also says he will seek to withdraw the United States from the 
Kyoto climate accord and that the United States will not comply with its 
emissions-reduction targets.

China declines to slow the rapid growth of its greenhouse gas emissions.
*
**2002*
President Bush proposes a voluntary plan involving tax credits and other 
incentives to encourage businesses and farmers to reduce their 
greenhouse gas emissions.

*2003*
The Senate votes 55 to 43 against a bill sponsored by Senator John 
McCain, a Republican from Arizona, and Senator Joe Lieberman, a Democrat 
from Connecticut, to limit carbon dioxide emissions by creating a 
market-driven "cap and trade" program. Only four Republicans vote yes.

The Republican campaign adviser Frank Luntz writes a memo to party 
officials noting: "Should the public come to believe that the scientific 
issues are settled, their views about global warming will change 
accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of 
scientific certainty a primary issue."

*2004*
Climate scientists across the globe overwhelming agree that evidence of 
climate change is clear and persuasive, according to a detailed analysis 
in Science Magazine by the science historian Naomi Oreskes. As she puts 
it: "Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, 
and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better 
basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do 
about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific 
consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate 
scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is time for the 
rest of us to listen."

*2005*
At a climate conference in Montreal, the United States and China refuse 
to agree to take mandatory steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Congress passes an energy policy act that provides tax and other 
incentives for some low emissions energy sources, including nuclear 
power, hydropower and wind and solar power. But it also continues large 
subsidies for fossil fuels.

*2006*
With its rapid industrialization, China surpasses the United States as 
the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

*2007*
Congress raises auto fuel efficiency standards for the first time since 
1976.

*2008*
Barack Obama and John McCain, the Democratic and Republican presidential 
candidates, endorse limiting greenhouse gas emissions through 
cap-and-trade legislation.

*2009*
The House of Representatives passes a cap-and-trade bill that would 
require cuts in greenhouse gas emissions of 17 percent below 2005 levels 
by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050. Only eight Republicans vote yes. The 
bill never receives a vote in the Senate, even though Democrats control 
57 seats and two independents caucus with them.

The American Petroleum Institute, funded by major oil companies, helps 
organize and pay for the first Tea Party rallies, including protests 
against the House-passed cap-and-trade legislation.

President Obama says the United States will cut greenhouse gas emissions 
by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 as part of the Copenhagen Accord 
signed by 193 nations. Large developing nations, including China, also 
pledge reductions, though they are voluntary.

*2010*
The International Energy Agency reports that global energy-related 
emissions of carbon dioxide hit a high of 30.6 billion tons, an increase 
of 1.6 billion tons over 2009.

President Obama reaches an agreement with American auto companies to 
raise fuel efficiency standards to 54 miles per gallon by 2025, the 
largest emissions-cutting action of his presidency.

*2011*
More than half of all carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels 
combustion since the Industrial Revolution began in 1751 have occurred 
just since the mid-1980s, according to a study by scientists for the 
United States government.

Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States decline slightly, but 
China's have increased by about 170 percent since 1999.

*2012*
In his acceptance speech to become the Republican presidential nominee, 
Mitt Romney mocks President Obama's climate efforts: "President Obama 
promised to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My 
promise is to help you and your family."

*2013*
Scientists report that concentrations of carbon dioxide reached a record 
400 parts per million in the atmosphere, the highest levels in at least 
three million years, before human beings evolved, and that global 
emissions rose by 60 percent between 1990 and 2013.

In his second Inaugural Address, President Obama calls climate change 
the leading issue of our time. "We will respond to the threat of climate 
change, knowing that failure to do so would betray our children and 
future generations."

More than 60 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions come from six 
nations: China, 30 percent; the United States, 16 percent; India, 6 
percent; Russia, 5 percent; Japan, 4 percent; and Germany, 3 percent.

*2014*
President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China announce limits on 
greenhouse gas emissions; the United States agrees to cut emissions by 
26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025; China says it will begin 
scaling back emissions before 2030. The agreement sets the stage for a 
global climate deal.

A United Nations study finds that even if global greenhouse gas 
emissions are cut to the level required to keep temperature rise below 
3.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 2 degrees Celsius, the cost of climate change 
adaptation in developing countries is likely to reach two to three times 
previous estimates of $70 billion to $100 billion per year by 2050

*2015*
The Paris climate accord is approved by 195 nations, including the 
United States, marking the first time that all major nations pledge to 
make emissions reductions to limit the global average temperature 
increase to less than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

The Republican-controlled Congress votes to phase out tax credits for 
wind and solar energy by 2020; various tax incentives for fossil fuel 
production remain. President Obama signs the bill, citing support from 
the renewable energy industry.

*2016*
2016 is the warmest year on record, the third consecutive year that a 
global annual temperature record has been set, and the 40th consecutive 
year that annual temperatures have been above the 20th-century average. 
The five warmest years have all occurred since 2010.

James Hansen and other scientists publish research finding that current 
global temperatures are the highest in at least 115,000 years, when sea 
levels were 20 to 30 feet higher than today.

Nearly all of the 16 Republican presidential hopefuls deny the science 
of climate change, and none support the Paris climate agreement. Donald 
Trump pledges to "cancel" American involvement in the Paris accord.

Not a single question on climate change is asked by moderators in any of 
the four presidential or vice-presidential debates.

The United States joins with 189 other countries to phase out 
hydrofluorocarbons, gases used as refrigerants, a move that will stave 
off nearly a degree Fahrenheit of warming by 2100.

Mr. Trump is elected president following a campaign in which he called 
for more fossil fuel drilling, fewer environmental regulations and vowed 
to pull the United States out of the Paris climate accord. "Regulations 
that shut down hundreds of coal-fired power plants and block the 
construction of new ones — how stupid is that?" Mr. Trump asked during 
the campaign.

*2017*
Following up on his campaign promises, President Trump signs an 
executive order directing his administration to undo regulations to cut 
emissions from the electric power sector; orders the resumption of the 
federal coal leasing program; says he will seek to weaken fuel economy 
standards for cars and light trucks; and proposes to cut the budget of 
the Environmental Protection Agency by 30 percent. He also says he will 
withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord.

Hurricane Harvey unleashes 50 inches of rain, the largest rainfall in 
United States history, paralyzing five million in Houston, killing 30, 
with a price tag of at least tens of billions of dollars to federal 
taxpayers. Multiple peer-reviewed studies find that Hurricane Harvey was 
made as much as 40 percent larger and more intense because of warming 
Gulf of Mexico waters tied to the changing climate.

More than 30 leading climate science and policy experts, including Nobel 
Prize winners, say that limiting global temperatures to below 3.6 
degrees Fahrenheit will require removing fossil fuels from the global 
energy system by 2050, reducing emissions of super greenhouse gas 
pollutants like HFCs, methane and black carbon rapidly by 2030, and 
extracting carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere.

*2018*
Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reach 410 parts per 
million, the highest level in at least three million years

President Trump insists coal is the key to the country's energy and 
economic future and orders Energy Secretary Rick Perry to take immediate 
steps to prevent market shutdowns of coal plants.

The Trump administration says it will roll back fuel economy standards 
set by the Obama administration for cars and light trucks, a move that 
would increase greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by an 
amount greater than many midsize countries put out in a year.

In another move to undo the Obama climate legacy, the Trump 
administration proposes letting states set their own coal emissions 
regulations, upending rules to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from 
coal-fired power plants. Many experts say this will cause greenhouse gas 
emissions from the power sector to begin rising for the first time in 
decades.

After falling for more than a decade, carbon dioxide emissions in the 
United States are set to rise by 2.5 percent in 2018. Global emissions 
grew by 1.6 percent in 2017 and will increase by about 2.7 percent in 2018.

Go. Jerry Brown of California signs legislation requiring that 100 
percent of the state's electricity come from carbon-free sources by 2045.

Thirteen federal agencies present the starkest warnings to date of the 
consequences of climate change for the United States, predicting in a 
report that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global 
warming, the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the 
American economy by century's end. The report warns of devastating 
effects on the economy, health and the environment, including record 
wildfires in California, crop failures in the Midwest and crumbling 
infrastructure in the South.

An international team of scientists finds a growing likelihood that 
runaway warming could destabilize the entire global climate system and 
lead to a "Hothouse Earth" that in the long term will push global 
average temperatures to seven to nine degrees Fahrenheit warmer than 
preindustrial temperatures, with seas 60 to 200 feet higher than today. 
"Humanity is now facing the need for critical decisions and actions that 
could influence our future for centuries, if not millennia," the 
scientists write.

Paul Bledsoe is strategic adviser at the Progressive Policy Institute 
and a lecturer at American University's Center for Environmental 
Studies. He served on the White House Climate Change Task Force under 
President Bill Clinton.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-history.html
[much happened before 1988 too]


*This Day in Climate History - January 9, 1989 - from D.R. Tucker*
January 9, 1989: In a letter to House Speaker Jim Wright and Vice 
President George H. W. Bush, President Ronald Reagan writes: "Because 
changes in the earth's natural systems can have tremendous economic and 
social effects, global climate change is becoming a critical concern."
(Apparently, Reagan's reference to the "critical concern" of climate 
change has never been acknowledged by right-wing media entities such as 
the Fox News Channel.)
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=35346

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