[✔️] May 2, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Sun May 2 11:15:28 EDT 2021

/*May 2, 2021*/

[Ready*]
* *Experts predict massive wildfire season*
BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) – In California, wildfire season has morphed 
into a year-long problem. Now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
Association says over 97% of the state is experiencing a drought. This 
comes after the most severe wildfire season in California’s history. 
Weather experts say most of Kern County is experiencing extreme drought, 
so first responders say you should prepare for a hot and smoky summer.

“We’ve not had areas in our mountain communities that have had a good 
recovery of moisture in their fuels,” said Andrew Freeborn, Public 
Information Officer for the Kern County Fire Department. “So things are 
going to burn early in the year, as if it’s the end of summer and things 
have been drying out all year long.”

Wildfires scorched over 4 million acres of land across the state last 
year, affecting over 10,000 buildings. Freeborn says preparation can 
help keep your home safe.

“Now’s the time to get those wood piles moved away,” said Freeborn. 
“Keep a nice clean area around the home, reduce the dry vegetation. Get 
this cleared off of our roofs, out of the rain gutters.”

Firefighters say you should also fill a backpack with essentials like 
food, water, and medication.

“Building a to-go bag and an escape route in advance,” said Freeborn. 
“That way no matter what the emergency is, wildfire or other, you’re 
ready at a moment’s notice to flee.”

Experts say you should keep that bag packed year round.

“There’s become this notion of fire season. We don’t have that anymore,” 
said Freeborn.

If you want to sign up for emergency alerts and see more fire safety 
tips, you can use the state’s website, readyforwildfire.org.
https://www.kget.com/news/local-news/experts-predict-massive-wildfire-season/

[16 min video report on the history ]
*Why This Fight May Be the End of Oil Pipelines*
Apr 29, 2021
Bloomberg Quicktake
With the development of renewable energy accelerating, the pipeline 
business increasingly finds itself against the ropes. The Biden 
administration dealt a death blow to Keystone XL, and the fate of 
similar projects remains uncertain. As fossil fuel dependency begins to 
wane, this multibillion dollar industry could soon go the way of the 
dinosaurs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6QvM5Heewo

[I'm older people, what does this mean?]
*Climate crisis: our children face wars over food and water, EU deputy 
warns*
Exclusive: Frans Timmermans says older people need to make sacrifices to 
protect the future
Older people will have to make sacrifices in the fight against climate 
change or today’s children will face a future of fighting wars for water 
and food, the EU’s deputy chief has warned.

Frans Timmermans, vice-president of the EU commission, said that if 
social policy and climate policy are not combined, to share fairly the 
costs and benefits of creating a low-carbon economy, the world will face 
a backlash from people who fear losing jobs or income, stoked by 
populist politicians and fossil fuel interests.

He said: “It’s not just an urgent matter – it’s a difficult matter. We 
have to transform our economy. There are huge benefits, but it’s a huge 
challenge. The biggest threat is the social one. If we don’t fix this, 
our children will be waging wars over water and food. There is no doubt 
in my mind.”...
Tackling climate change will be many times cheaper than the disruption 
that global heating will cause, as well as bringing benefits to health, 
and the costs have fallen dramatically in recent years. However, the 
shift away from fossil fuels will mean the end of some traditional jobs 
such as coalmining, and the costs of change will fall unequally on 
different sectors of society unless politicians step in.
“Where I see a huge risk is that you get an alliance between those who 
don’t want change because they see their interest affected, whether it’s 
in fossil fuels or in traditional economic circles,” Timmermans told the 
Guardian in an interview. “Those interests combine with the fear of 
negative social consequences. Then you could get a counter-momentum 
where people say, ‘Hang on, not too fast, people cannot stomach this.’”

He added: “Those of us who understand we need to move fast should make 
the social issue the pivotal issue in all of this. I really call upon 
all of those in the climate movement to join me in focusing on the 
social issue more than they’ve done in the past. Because this could 
become the biggest stumbling block.”

He warned that sacrifices would be needed from the older generation to 
ensure that young people can live in a safe climate. Today’s older 
people were the beneficiaries of a previous generation’s sacrifice, and 
were now being called on to make changes themselves, he said.

“Sometimes I wonder whether we are aware of the transformation we’re 
heading to, and how profound it is. It’s an effort comparable to 
restructuring after a violent conflict. I used to talk to my 
grandparents and my parents about how they saw this, after the war. They 
said, ‘Well, we sacrificed a lot because we knew our children would be 
better off.’ And this feeling is not there yet in our society.”

Changing people’s lives today would be difficult, but the benefits would 
be felt by today’s children, he added. “This for politics is a huge, 
huge challenge. We need to recapture that feeling of a purpose – doing 
something not for yourself, but for others, which I think has always led 
to society being at its best.”...
Any sacrifice would be mild for most, such as the inconvenience of 
having a house renovated to low-carbon standards, or switching to 
electric transport, and eating less meat. But for some it could involve 
a change of job or living patterns.

“We’re not asking people to go back to 1930s situations, we’re not 
asking people to live in caves and munch grass. It’s taking perhaps one 
or two steps back to be able to jump much further in to the future.”

Timmermans’ warnings reflect a growing concern among climate experts 
that politicians have failed to show people the benefits of a low-carbon 
society, which include cleaner air and water, more livable cities, and 
higher levels of health and wellbeing, as well as defusing the climate 
crisis. Politicians, including Donald Trump and Republicans in the US, 
have presented tackling climate breakdown as a cost, and many people are 
fearful for their jobs.

Timmermans acknowledged that some people in traditional industries would 
have to change, and said the main role for politicians was to make this 
easier. Reskilling people in industries such as fossil fuel and power 
generation would be key.

He pointed to Poland, which is highly dependent on coal. “They have a 
very high level of engineering, of education – there’s a huge potential 
there [in a low-carbon economy] for a country like Poland. And there 
simply isn’t any future in coal. The longer you protract [the change], 
the more painful and the more costly it will be.”

Timmermans has a pivotal role this year, within the EU and globally, as 
he leads the bloc’s green deal, intended to transform the European 
economy to a low-carbon footing, and leads the bloc’s climate efforts at 
Cop26, vital UN climate talks to be hosted by the UK in Glasgow this 
November.

On Thursday, he travelled to London for his first official visit outside 
Brussels since the pandemic lockdowns began, with a four-hour meeting in 
Downing Street with Alok Sharma, the UK’s Cop26 president and host of 
the talks. He is in weekly contact with John Kerry, climate envoy to US 
president Joe Biden, and with China’s top climate official, Xie Zhenhua.

The EU has put in law its own climate target, of cutting emissions by at 
least 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. This is one of the most 
stretching climate targets yet put forward, alongside those of the UK 
and the US, though campaigners have said the bloc could do better and 
have called for a 60% target.

Timmermans said no further improvement of the emissions target was 
possible, but said he was asking EU member states to come forward with 
more money for climate finance: assistance from rich to poor countries 
to help them cut emissions and cope with the impacts of climate breakdown.

“Our approach is ambitious; I think we’ve set the stage. I hope others 
will follow that example. I see what the UK is doing – that’s even 
slightly more ambitious than what we’re doing. But then all the others 
still have a lot of catching up to do. I think the onus here is not on 
the EU, nor on the UK.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/30/climate-crisis-we-must-make-sacrifices-to-avoid-future-wars-says-eu-deputy-frans-timmermans

[make ready]
*FEMA awards grants to reduce risks from wildfires on communities*
Bill Gabbert - May 1, 2021
Two of three appear to be well deserved

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has recently awarded millions of 
dollars through their Disaster Mitigation Grant program.

*Boulder County, Colorado*
Boulder County will receive a $1.2 million Pre-Disaster Mitigation Grant 
for two wildfire mitigation actions. The first is to create defensible 
space for approximately 500 properties. The second is hazardous fuels 
reduction in an area of about 160 acres that will provide further 
protection on 27 properties where defensible space creation was 
previously completed.

Homeowner efforts to create defensible space will not just be a one-time 
effort. They will join the county’s wildfire mitigation program, 
Wildfire Partners, to support continued maintenance of defensible space 
over the long-term and conduct comprehensive mitigation efforts to 
effectively reduce wildfire risk in a community that has been severely 
affected by wildfire.

FEMA is providing 75 percent of the project costs, a total of 
$1,215,630. Funding is provided through FEMA’s Pre-Disaster Mitigation 
Grant Program, which is designed to assist states, U.S. territories, 
federally-recognized tribes, and local communities in implementing a 
sustained pre-disaster natural hazard mitigation program. The goal is to 
reduce overall risk to the population and structures from future hazard 
events, while also reducing reliance on federal funding in future disasters.

*Ashland, Oregon*
The city of Ashland, Oregon will receive a $3 million Pre-Disaster 
Mitigation Grant to create wildfire defensible space around 1,100 homes 
and to replace 23 wood shake roofs with ignition-resistant roof material.

The City of Ashland in Oregon’s Jackson County is in a high wildfire 
risk zone. In the fall of 2020, neighboring communities of Talent and 
Phoenix were devastated by the Almeda Fire, which burned 2,977 acres and 
destroyed over 2,300 structures.

This mitigation project will help protect structures from wildfires and 
will help homes in the Ashland area comply with recommended local best 
practices for wildfire risk reduction. Replacing wood shake roofs and 
providing defensible space to structures reduces the risk of wildfire 
spread and diminishes the likelihood of wildfires starting from embers. 
Once these highly flammable roofs are replaced, these types of roofs 
will no longer be allowed in Ashland.

The City is contributing a $1 million cost-share, making the total value 
of this grant $4 million.

The project includes hiring a project manager, preliminary assessments 
of identified homes, surveys for vegetation removal, scheduling and 
training of pre-approved contractors, removal of vegetation, and 
reconstruction of roofs.

*Rolling Hills, California*
A $1.1 million grant is going to the Los Angeles community of Rolling 
Hills. The funds will replace overhead power lines and poles with nearly 
2,000 feet of underground cables and relocate transformers to an area 
with less wildfire risk. The Los Angeles Fire Department identified the 
area as a Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone, the highest designation 
with the greatest fire risk.

The $1.5 million project includes a $1.1 million grant from FEMA’s 
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP), with the remaining $381,000 from 
non-federal sources.

*Our take*
As we wrote last September, grants to mitigate wildfire risk and improve 
community resiliency is a worthwhile investment:

Provide grants to homeowners that are in areas with high risk from 
wildland fires. Pay a portion of the costs of improvements or retrofits 
to structures and the nearby vegetation to make the property more fire 
resistant. This could include the cost of removing some of the trees in 
order to have the crowns at least 18 feet apart if they are within 30 
feet of the structures — many homeowners can’t afford the cost of 
complete tree removal.

But the limited amount of Federal taxpayer funds available must be 
distributed where they can get the most bang for the buck and assist a 
significant number of residents.

Rolling Hills is a gated community of private roads on a hill 
overlooking the Pacific Ocean in Los Angeles where the median household 
income is $239,375 and the poverty rate is 1.6%. The project will reduce 
wildfire ignitions along 2,000 feet of power lines.

Boulder County has a median household income of $83,019 and a poverty 
rate of 10.7%. Their grant will mitigate hazards on 527 properties.

Ashland, Oregan has a median income of $56,315 and a poverty rate of 
18.4%. More than 1,100 homes will be affected by the project.

Putting 2,000 feet of power lines underground in Rolling Hills could 
reduce the chance of poorly designed or maintained electrical lines 
starting fires. But a case could be made that the project should not 
rank high enough nationwide to prevent other grants from being approved 
that would have a much greater beneficial effect on larger numbers of 
people with far less disposable income. In this affluent Los Angeles 
community improvements on the electrical lines, in this case, should be 
funded by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.

There is probably more than one resident in Rolling Hills who could 
write a check for the project then go into the backyard and finish their 
game of tennis...
https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/05/01/fema-awards-grants-to-reduce-risks-from-wildfires-on-communities/
- -
[more info]*
**FEMA has more information about the Pre-Disaster Mitigation and Hazard 
Mitigation Grant programs.*
https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/pre-disaster
https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/hazard-mitigation

[wine whine]
*Climate Change Prompts Vineyard Yield Rethink*
As vineyards get hotter, are growers on the right track chasing smaller 
yields?
By James Lawrence - Friday, 30-Apr-2021..
- -
Franchetti adheres to a school of thought widely considered to be 
(almost) incontrovertible. He points out that red wine derives its color 
and flavor from its skins. Bigger bunches and berries therefore means a 
less favorable juice to pulp ratio, with a resulting nosedive in 
structure, color and flavor intensity. It is generally agreed, however, 
that white wines are less obviously affected by increased yields.

Yet even here, particularly in the context of a warming climate, we can 
find shades of grey. Is it better to harvest lower yields and then 
possibly under-extract for fear of absorbing too much aggressive tannin? 
Or to pursue higher volumes (and risk losing complexity/structure), but 
carry out a longer, more extensive maceration? Questions for wine geeks, 
sure, but issues which nevertheless directly affect the quality of what 
ends up in your glass of Super Tuscan.

Perhaps we should just defer to the experts on this one. Winemakers and 
growers in Napa have a minefield of experience in managing drought and 
heat – we can learn much from their experiences in balancing the twin 
desires for low (-ish) yields, while simultaneously avoiding monstrous 
alcohol.

"I think the story and solution to global warming is going to be much 
more complex than simply avoiding unnecessarily low yields," says 
Quintessa winemaker Rebekah Wineburg.

"I've noticed a significant difference in response depending on the soil 
type and vineyard trellis system, but also depending on vine age. It 
simply varies so much. That said, I do think that chasing low yields has 
not been the correct approach, or at least it has been an 
over-simplified approach, to achieving high quality. Equally, a high 
crop load acts as a sink for water and nutrients – in a hot and dry 
season the ability of the vine to find and transport that amount of 
water is limited. So in this respect, a lower crop load is more ideal in 
a drought situation."

Historically, there has always been a certain lack of nuance in the 
discussion around yield, and the relationship between quantity and 
quality. Even if vintage conditions were uniform over a 10 year period – 
yeah right! – there surely cannot be an immutable figure that achieves 
maximum quality. Neither is there a linear correlation between quality 
and yield from one year to the next. The subject is a paradise for 
enophiles who detest clarity and certainty.

"There is an undeniable relationship between quality and quantity, but 
from my experience this is a complicated relationship that negates a 
hard rule of thumb.  Instead it is a relationship that depends on the 
site, variety, vine density, and season," observes Wineburg.

"Just remember that quality does not necessarily increase with decreased 
quantity. For example, Sauvignon Blanc vines need a crop load in order 
to produce quality wines, and a low-yielding year can produce wines on 
decreased quality, phenolic character, and excessive sugar/alcohol."

The only aspect which engenders a consensus is the subject of vine 
balance – specifically the need to ensure that the canopy- to-fruit 
ratio is maintained throughout the growing season. But as global warming 
becomes a perpetual concern, all else is up for fierce debate. There 
have been arguments about yield versus quality for decades; but, as 
things start to really hot up, expect more shades of grey than in a 
reproduction of Whistler's Mother.
https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2021/04/climate-change-prompts-vineyard-yield-rethink

[not surprising]
*‘Firefighters Out There in the Snow’: Wildfires Rage Early in Parched West*
Firefighters in New Mexico, Arizona and California are battling 
springtime blazes that have been fueled by a severe drought and boosted 
by climate change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/30/us/wildfires-fire.html

[philosophical and scientific]
*Net Zero Is A Trap | Professor Wolfgang Knorr*
Apr 28, 2021
Nick Breeze
https://genn.cc
https://climateseries.com/climate-change-podcast/90-woilfgang-net-zero-trap

In this episode of Shaping The Future, I am talking to Professor 
Wolfgang Knorr - a climate scientist with over 25 years working for many 
agencies and laboratories around the world.

Currently, Wolfgang is a Senior Research Scientist at Lund University 
measuring CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and human activities 
among other things.

This conversation is to discuss the concerns that he and his colleagues 
have about the use or misuse of the term Net Zero and their concern that 
collectively we are setting ourselves up for failure in tackling the 
climate crisis.

The safest pathway to the future means a radical transformation of our 
societies and yet the net zero narratives is one of incremental changes 
and technology that does not exist. In this critical moment when we are 
expected to do what is necessary, instead, collectively we have chosen 
to ignore the risks lock in for longer a business as usual approach.

A link to the article we are discussed is included here:
https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368
https://youtu.be/bsO8d3jfP2U?t=540

[new understanding of ice melting]
*New Study Changes Understanding of How Greenland’s Ice Melts*
Olivia Rosane Apr. 7, 2021
A new study of Greenland's glacial rivers has important implications for 
how scientists might model future ice melt and subsequent sea level rise.

Previously, researchers thought they could measure ice melt simply by 
looking at the amount of meltwater sitting on top of glaciers and in 
moulins — shafts in the glacier that empty rivers from the surface to 
the interior, Earther explained. But the new study, published in 
Geophysical Research Letters on Monday, found that a glacier's speed 
increased when water pressure rapidly changed beneath the ice sheet, 
NASA explained...
- -
To better understand the dynamics driving this melt, Smith and his team 
traveled to the Russell Glacier in southwestern Greenland in 2016 and 
studied a glacial river, NASA said. The researchers recorded the forward 
motion of the glacier itself, the amount of meltwater pouring into the 
moulin and the amount of meltwater pouring out from beneath the glacier 
at the water's edge. They determined that changes in subterranean water 
pressure were driving the glacier's overall speed.

"Even if the cavities are small, as long as the pressure is ramping up 
very fast, they will make the ice slide faster," Smith explained.

NASA Glaciologist Dr. Lauren Andrews compared a glacier moving over 
subterranean meltwater to car tires sliding on a wet road.

"If you have a rapid perturbation of water going into the subglacial 
system, you overwhelm the system, and so you create essentially a layer 
of water at the interface that's not contained in channels or cavities 
anymore," Andrews said.

The way that water pressure drives glacier speed had never been studied 
in the field before, NASA said. This new research now adds 168 hours of 
"rare in situ" measurements to understand the dynamics of glacial 
rivers, which had previously been overlooked.

"In 2015 when we started this study, there was surprisingly little 
attention paid to the hydrology of streams and rivers on the ice sheet, 
especially inland away from the ice edge, and we felt that this was a 
critical scientific gap," Smith said in the video.

The research supports the team's initial feeling.

"These findings affirm the importance of supraglacial rivers to 
subglacial water pressure and ice dynamics, even in relatively thick 
ice," the researchers wrote.
https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-study-2651382155.html

[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming  May 2, 2008 *

  May 2, 2008: On MSNBC's "Countdown," Keith Olbermann and guest Rachel 
Maddow react to GOP presidential candidate John McCain's remarks earlier 
in the day linking the Iraq War to US energy policy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvY9e_ZxxyA

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