[✔️] August 26, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Watch Duty Fire Map, Heat risk increased, heat mortality increased, Science warns we must avoid an AMOC collapse, 2001 Cheney malfeasance

[Richard Pauli]

/*August *//*26, 2023*/

/[ a Western wildfire map for phone and computer ////] /
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/[ Know that there is MORE heat risk now  ]/
*Risk of heat-related deaths has ‘increased rapidly’ over past 20 years*
24 August 2023
Spikes in temperature-related deaths during extreme summer heatwaves 
“will eventually become commonplace” if societies do not adapt to the 
dangerous impacts of extreme heat, new research finds.
- -
The risk of heat-related deaths during extreme summer heat has already 
“increased rapidly” over the past 20 years, the paper finds. It warns 
that without “urgent” adaptation measures, once-extreme levels of 
heat-related mortality could become “normal” as global temperatures rise.

“Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and 
adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives,” the authors say.

The lead author warns that the worst impacts of extreme heat are felt by 
the world’s poorest, who have the lowest ability to adapt to the 
damaging impacts of high temperatures and have contributed the least to 
global emissions...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/risk-of-heat-related-deaths-has-increased-rapidly-over-past-20-years/

- -

/[ Original article in the journal nature communications ]/
*Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality*
Published: 24 August 2023
Samuel Lüthi,...

    Abstract
    Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate
    extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses
    largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature
    rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the
    frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on
    human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical
    heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries
    with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and
    future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat
    mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000
    would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of
    2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under
    warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of
    the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation
    occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation
    and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40599-x



/[ "An AMOC collapse would be a massive, planetary-scale disaster."  
from RealClimate.org  ] /
*The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?*
25 AUG 2023 BY STEFAN
A few weeks ago, a study by Copenhagen University researchers Peter and 
Susanne Ditlevsen concluded that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning 
Circulation (AMOC) is likely to pass a tipping point already this 
century, most probably around mid-century. Given the catastrophic 
consequences of an AMOC breakdown, the study made quite a few headlines 
but also met some skepticism. Now that the dust has settled, here some 
thoughts on the criticisms that have been raised about this study.
- -
*What does it all mean?*

An AMOC collapse would be a massive, planetary-scale disaster. Some of 
the consequences: Cooling and increased storminess in northwestern 
Europe, major additional sea level rise especially along the American 
Atlantic coast, a southward shift of tropical rainfall belts (causing 
drought in some regions and flooding in others), reduced ocean carbon 
dioxide uptake, greatly reduced oxygen supply to the deep ocean, likely 
ecosystem collapse in the northern Atlantic, and others. Check out the 
OECD report Climate Tipping Points which is well worth reading, and the 
maps below - https://www.realclimate.org/images/OECD-AMOC-collapse.png. 
You really want to prevent this from happening.

We know from paleoclimatic data that there have been a number of 
drastic, rapid climate changes with focal point in the North Atlantic 
due to abrupt AMOC changes, apparently after the AMOC passed a tipping 
point. They are known as Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, 
see my review in Nature (pdf 
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Nature/insight_review.pdf ).

*The point: it is a risk we should keep to an absolute minimum.*

In other words: we are talking about risk analysis and disaster 
prevention. This is not about being 100% sure that the AMOC will pass 
its tipping point this century; it is that we’d like to be 100% sure 
that it won’t. Even if there were just (say) a 40% chance that the 
Ditlevsen study is correct in the tipping point being reached between 
2025 and 2095, that’s a major change to the previous IPCC assessment 
that the risk is less than 10%. Even a <10% chance as of IPCC (for which 
there is only “medium confidence” that it’s so small) is in my view a 
massive concern. That concern has increased greatly with the Ditlevsen 
study – that is the point, and not whether it’s 100% correct and certain.

Would you live in a village below a dammed lake if you’re told there is 
a one in ten chance that one day the dam will break and much of the 
village will be washed away? Would you say: “Not to worry, that’s 90 % 
chance it won’t happen?” Or would you demand action by the authorities 
to reduce the risk? What if a new study appears, experienced scientists, 
reputable journal, that says it is nearly certain that the dam will 
break, the question is only when? Would you demand immediate attention 
to mitigate this danger, or would you say: “Oh well, some have 
questioned whether the assumptions of this study are entirely correct. 
Let’s just assume it is wrong”?

For the AMOC (and other climate tipping points), the only action we can 
take to minimise the risk is to get out of fossil fuels and stop 
deforestation as fast as possible. One major assumption of the Ditlevsen 
study is that global warming continues as in past decades. That is in 
our hands – or more precisely, that of our governments and powerful 
corporations. In 2022, the G20 governments alone subsidised fossil fuel 
use with 1.4 trillion dollars, up by 475% above the previous year. They 
aren’t trying to end fossil fuels.

Yet, as soon as we reach zero emissions, global warming will stop within 
years, and the sooner this happens the smaller the risk of passing 
tipping points. It also minimises lots of other losses, damages and 
human suffering from “regular” global warming impacts, which are already 
happening all around us even without passing major climate tipping points.

*https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/08/the-amoc-tipping-this-century-or-not/*

    More Links:
    For more on this, see my long TwiX thread with many images from
    relevant studies.
    https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1684903347118051328

    What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?
    https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/

    If you doubt that the AMOC has weakened, read this
    https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/if-you-doubt-that-the-amoc-has-weakened-read-this/

    AMOC slowdown: Connecting the dots
    https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/05/amoc-slowdown-connecting-the-dots/

    And for even more, just enter “AMOC” into the search field of this blog!

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/08/the-amoc-tipping-this-century-or-not/



/[The news archive - looking back at Dick Cheney's political malfeasance  ]/
/*August 26, 2001*/
August 26, 2001: The Los Angeles Times reports:

    "Throughout February and March, executives representing electricity,
    coal, natural gas and nuclear interests paraded quietly in small
    groups to a building in the White House compound, where the new
    administration's energy policy was being written.

    "Some firms sent emissaries more than once. Enron Corp., which
    trades electricity and natural gas, once got three top officials
    into a private session with Vice President Dick Cheney, who headed
    the energy task force. Cheney did 'a lot of listening,' according to
    a company spokesman.

    "Many of the executives at the White House meetings were generous
    donors to the Republican Party, and some of their key lobbyists were
    freshly hired from the Bush presidential campaign. They found a
    receptive task force. Among its ranks were three former energy
    industry executives and consultants. The task force also included a
    Bush agency head who was involved in the sensitive discussions while
    his wife took in thousands of dollars in fees from three electricity
    producers.

    "The final report, issued May 16, boosted the nation's energy
    industries. It called for additional coal production, and five days
    later the world's largest coal company, Peabody Energy, issued a
    public stock offering, raising about $60 million more than expected.
    While Peabody was preparing to go public, its chief executive and
    vice president participated in a March 1 meeting with Cheney."

http://articles.latimes.com/2001/aug/26/news/mn-38530

see also 
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/08/remembering-why-americans-loathe-dick-cheney/244306/


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